NOAA’s National Weather Service WFO Omaha/Valley

WFO Omaha/Valley Nebraska (OAX)

Warning Ways, Woes, and Wishes

WFO Omaha/Valley Nebraska (OAX)

Warning Ways, Woes, and Wishes

Daniel Nietfeld

Science and Operations Officer

Daniel Nietfeld

Science and Operations Officer

Number of Warnings by WFO1995 - 2004

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

All Warnings TOR Warnings

Number of Warnings by WFO

1995 - 2004

Number of Warnings by WFO

1995 - 2004

We use all 3 Pieces to the Warning Puzzle…

Environment

Ground Truth (Spotters)Radar

Warning OperationsWarning Operations

• Two People Per Sector

– Radar Meteorologist

– Product Meteorologist

• Separate Mesoscale Analyst

• Sector #1, Sector #2, and Meso workstations in a “circle within the circle”

• Two People Per Sector

– Radar Meteorologist

– Product Meteorologist

• Separate Mesoscale Analyst

• Sector #1, Sector #2, and Meso workstations in a “circle within the circle”

OAX Operations Area LayoutOAX Operations Area Layout

Warning Sector #1

Warning Sector #1

MesoanalystMesoanalyst

Warning Sector #2

Warning Sector #2

RADARRADARProductsProductsRADARRADAR

ProductsProductsCOMMS (NAWAS / Phones)

COMMS (NAWAS / Phones)

Warning Sector #1

Warning Sector #1

Warning Sector #2

Warning Sector #2

MesoanalystMesoanalyst

ProductsProducts

RADARRADAR

HAMSHAMS

COMMS (NAWAS / Phones)

COMMS (NAWAS / Phones)

RADARRADAR

ProductsProducts

2 People Per Sector2 People Per Sector

• Eyes Never off RADAR

• Detail and QC can be added to products

• RADAR person can ask for second opinion on “how does this look to you?”

• Product person can ask, “How does this sound?”

• Allows for multiple SVSs per warning without compromising RADAR storm interrogation

• Eyes Never off RADAR

• Detail and QC can be added to products

• RADAR person can ask for second opinion on “how does this look to you?”

• Product person can ask, “How does this sound?”

• Allows for multiple SVSs per warning without compromising RADAR storm interrogation

2 People Per Sector2 People Per Sector

• Requires more people in the office• Requires more people in the office

OAX Radar MethodologyOAX Radar Methodology

• Storm-Structure Mentality

• 4-Panel and All-Tilts Methodology to see “slices” of the storm

• Use “Base Products” as opposed to “Volume Products”

• Most real-time information

• We do not depend on Algorithms (use as a “guidance” products to alert us)

• Storm-Structure Mentality

• 4-Panel and All-Tilts Methodology to see “slices” of the storm

• Use “Base Products” as opposed to “Volume Products”

• Most real-time information

• We do not depend on Algorithms (use as a “guidance” products to alert us)

Would like to see better All-Tilts Navigation

Would like to see better All-Tilts Navigation

  2257 2301 2305 2310

Loop 19.5 19.5 19.5 19.5

Loop 15.6 15.6 15.6 15.6

Loop 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5

Loop 10 10 10 10

Loop 8 8 8 8

Loop 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4

Loop 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1

Loop 4 4 4 4

Loop 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2

Loop 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4

Loop 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8

Loop 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3

Loop 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9

Loop 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5

  Loop Loop Loop Loop

         

Current sliceCurrent slice

A Comprehensive Hail Warning Technique Developed Across the Central Plains

A Comprehensive Hail Warning Technique Developed Across the Central Plains

Rod Donavon

National Weather Service

Des Moines, IA (DMX)

Rod Donavon

National Weather Service

Des Moines, IA (DMX)

Correlation between large hail and

the height of the 50 dbZ echo

as a function of the freezing level

Correlation between large hail and

the height of the 50 dbZ echo

as a function of the freezing level

50 dBZ Echo Height Warning Criterion50 dBZ Echo Height Warning Criterion• FZLVL(AGL) Warning Criteria (AGL)

• 6000 ft 15000 ft

• 6500 ft 16000 ft

• 7000 ft 17000 ft

• 7500 ft 18000 ft

• 8000 ft 19000 ft

• 8500 ft 20000 ft

• 9000 ft 21000 ft

• 9500 ft 22000 ft

• 10000 ft 23000 ft

• 10500 ft 24500 ft

• 11000 ft 26000 ft

• 11500 ft 28000 ft

• 12000 ft 30000 ft

• 12500 ft 32000 ft

• 13000 ft 34000 ft

• 13500 ft 36000 ft

• 14000 ft 38000 ft

• 14500 ft 40000 ft

• 15000 ft 42000 ft

• FZLVL(AGL) Warning Criteria (AGL)

• 6000 ft 15000 ft

• 6500 ft 16000 ft

• 7000 ft 17000 ft

• 7500 ft 18000 ft

• 8000 ft 19000 ft

• 8500 ft 20000 ft

• 9000 ft 21000 ft

• 9500 ft 22000 ft

• 10000 ft 23000 ft

• 10500 ft 24500 ft

• 11000 ft 26000 ft

• 11500 ft 28000 ft

• 12000 ft 30000 ft

• 12500 ft 32000 ft

• 13000 ft 34000 ft

• 13500 ft 36000 ft

• 14000 ft 38000 ft

• 14500 ft 40000 ft

• 15000 ft 42000 ft

Some Use of:Some Use of:

• VIL and DVIL

• Storm Top Divergence

• LRM mid and high

• VIL and DVIL

• Storm Top Divergence

• LRM mid and high

SCAN and FFMPSCAN and FFMP

• Very limited use of SCAN

– First Echo

– Trends of core height, max dbZ

• EXTENSIVE use of FFMP

– Wonderful program

• Very limited use of SCAN

– First Echo

– Trends of core height, max dbZ

• EXTENSIVE use of FFMP

– Wonderful program

Ground TruthGround Truth• Becoming the #1 problem with the warning

process, mainly contributing to FAR

• Supercell storm

– mid level weak-moderate rotation

– Hook echo

• LCL 2500 meters, with LFC 3200 meters

• Law Enforcement reports a tornado, but is really just a lot of dust. We have no choice but to issue a tornado warning!

• Becoming the #1 problem with the warning process, mainly contributing to FAR

• Supercell storm

– mid level weak-moderate rotation

– Hook echo

• LCL 2500 meters, with LFC 3200 meters

• Law Enforcement reports a tornado, but is really just a lot of dust. We have no choice but to issue a tornado warning!

May 17, 2005 Arnold Nebraska Dry Microburst May 17, 2005 Arnold Nebraska Dry Microburst

May 10, 2005

Near Grand Island, NE

May 10, 2005

Near Grand Island, NE

LFC Ht.LFC Ht.

May 10, 2005 Grand Island NE Supercell May 10, 2005 Grand Island NE Supercell

WarnGenWe Basically Like it, but…

WarnGenWe Basically Like it, but…

• Slowing down too much

– Buggy, glitchy, too many errors

– System “froze up” this spring at OAX

• Difficult to match SVS to SVR/TOR

– Suggest color coding warnings to polygons/statements

• Storm Motion Limitations

– Only allows for a linear storm motion

• Slowing down too much

– Buggy, glitchy, too many errors

– System “froze up” this spring at OAX

• Difficult to match SVS to SVR/TOR

– Suggest color coding warnings to polygons/statements

• Storm Motion Limitations

– Only allows for a linear storm motion

WarnGenWarnGen

• Template syntax is too code-oriented

• Difficult to ingest GIS data into warnings

• Difficult getting watch data into warnings

• Too much manual tweaking of polygons (minor issue)

• Template syntax is too code-oriented

• Difficult to ingest GIS data into warnings

• Difficult getting watch data into warnings

• Too much manual tweaking of polygons (minor issue)

WarnGen Polygons“Warnings Gone Wild”

WarnGen Polygons“Warnings Gone Wild”

Warning SoftwareWarning Software

• We use a different program to issue warnings for:

– Tornadoes/Severe Thunderstorms

– River floods

– Winter Storms

– Airport Weather Warnings

• Short Term Forecast applications?

• Too many paper/written logs/forms, etc…

• We use a different program to issue warnings for:

– Tornadoes/Severe Thunderstorms

– River floods

– Winter Storms

– Airport Weather Warnings

• Short Term Forecast applications?

• Too many paper/written logs/forms, etc…

Warning NWP Assistance ?Warning NWP Assistance ?

• Run a simulation of a particular storm to see the NWP solution of that storm’s evolution in the next 1 to 2 hours

– 4-D Assimilation with RADAR data, mesonet data, etc…

– Run in-house at convective process scales

– Run time in a few minutes (perhaps a new run with each new volume scan?)

• Run a simulation of a particular storm to see the NWP solution of that storm’s evolution in the next 1 to 2 hours

– 4-D Assimilation with RADAR data, mesonet data, etc…

– Run in-house at convective process scales

– Run time in a few minutes (perhaps a new run with each new volume scan?)

You told us to think big !You told us to think big !

Any New Software MUST Be:Any New Software MUST Be:

• Simple

• Fast

• NOT Cumbersome

• Well Tested in the field

• Simple

• Fast

• NOT Cumbersome

• Well Tested in the field

May 22, 2004(Were there 6 tornadoes at 9:15 PM?)

May 22, 2004(Were there 6 tornadoes at 9:15 PM?)

Who Spilled the

box of Cheerios ?!

Who Spilled the

box of Cheerios ?!

From a recent Media RADAR Seminar From a recent Media RADAR Seminar

May 22, 2004(Were there 9 tornadoes at 9:57 PM?)

May 22, 2004(Were there 9 tornadoes at 9:57 PM?)

From a recent Media RADAR Seminar From a recent Media RADAR Seminar