PopDev 101

What is PopDev?

Nimfa B. OgenaUP Population Institute

When you first heard of“PopDev,” what was the first

thing that came to your mind?

Perspectives on Population andEconomic development

Population growth promotes economicdevelopment(Slow to moderate population growthpromotes economic development)

Population growth impedes economicdevelopment(Rapid population growth, of already largepopulations, impedes economic development)

Population growth is not related to economicdevelopment.(Population growth is only one of many factorsthat affect economic development)

Association Between Average Annual WorldPopulation Growth Rates and GDP per CapitaGrowth Rates, 1975-2004

4

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

-6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8

Growth Rates in Population

Source: Population Reference Bureau, Population & Economic Development Linkages 2007 Data Sheet.

Growth Rate in GDP perCapita

Association Between Fertility andEducation

5

0

20

40

60

80

100

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Percent of Girls Enrolledin Secondary School

Source: Population Reference Bureau, Population & Economic Development Linkages 2007 Data Sheet.

Total Fertility Rate

Association Between Fertility and Poverty

6

0

20

40

60

80

100

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Percent of PopulationLiving on <$2 per Day

Source: Population Reference Bureau, Population & Economic Development Linkages 2007 Data Sheet.

Total Fertility Rate

What is the population of thePhilippines as ofAugust 1, 2007?

88,574,614

Population DistributionPopulation of the Philippines by Regions: 2007

11.6

1.5

4.5

3.1

9.7

11.7

2.6

5.1

6.86.4

3.93.2

4 4.23.8 4.1

2.3

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

NC

R

CAR

ILOCOS

CAGAYAN V

ALLEY

CENTRAL L

UZO

N

CALABARZON

MIM

AROPA

BIC

OL

W. V

ISAYAS

C. V

ISAYAS

E. V

ISAYAS

ZAM

BO P

ENIN

SULA

N. M

INDANAO

DAVAO

SOCCSKSARGEN

ARM

M

CARAGA

in M

illio

ns

Source: NSO. 2007 Census of Population and Housing

Source: NSO. Retrieved 12/19/09 from http://www.census.gov.ph/

POPDEV FrameworkMacro Level

Population Size

Age-Sex Structure

Spatial Distribution

Fertility

Mortality

Migration

Infrastructure

Social Services

Economic Development

Governance and Development Administration

Environmental Development and Preservation

Population Variables Development Factors

Current Population Issues

Rapid increase in population size withslow decline in fertility

Actual and Projected Population with Annual Average Growth Rate:Philippines, 1970-2040

36.7

42.1

48.1

60.7

68.6

76.9

85.3

103.0

111.8

120.2

128.1

135.3

141.7

94.0

1.09

1.26

1.44

1.63

1.81

1.942.05

2.362.32

2.71

2.78

2.35

0.92

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

140.0

160.0

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Note: Data after 2000 are Population Projections (Medium Assumption, NRR=1 by 2040)

Popu

latio

n (in

mill

ions

)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Popu

latio

n G

row

th R

ate

(in p

erce

nt)

PGR

(right axis)

Source: Population census data in various years and official population projections Available from http://www.nscb.gov.ph/secstat/d_popn.asp (accessed 13March 2006) as cited in Ogena (2006) Whither The Philippines In The 21st Century? A Conference On The Philippines, 13-14 July 2006, Institute ofSoutheast Asian Studies, Singapore

The Philippine population size is expected tocontinue growing despite the projected declinein population growth rate

Current Population Issues

Rapid increase in population size withslow decline in fertility

Age structural Shift: Still a relativelyyoung population but with rapidpopulation ageing and growingsinglehood

Projected Age Distribution Philippines, 2000-2040 (Medium Series)

The large youth population is expected to continue to2040, but the working-age population and the

number of senior citizens would increase much faster

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

100.0

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Popu

latio

n (in

milli

ons)

0-14 15-64 60+

20.8 m(14%)

32.2 m(24%)

88.1 m(63%)

Source: Ogena (2006) Whither The Philippines In The 21st Century? A Conference On The Philippines, 13-14 July 2006, Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, Singapore

Actual and Projected Ageing Index and Potential Support Ratio:Philippines, 1970-2004

0.00

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

70.00

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Actual

Ageing

Index

Projected

Ageing

Index

Potential

Support

Ratio

The nearly fourfold increase of the ageing indexby the end of the projection period means thatby 2040 there will be almost two personsaged 60 or over for every three childrenunder 15 years in the Philippines.

Source: Ogena (2006) Whither The Philippines In The 21st Century? A Conference On The Philippines, 13-14 July 2006, Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, Singapore

Current Population Issues

Rapid increase in population size withslow decline in fertility

Age structural Shift: Still a relativelyyoung population but with rapidpopulation ageing and growingsinglehood

Massive flow of Filipinos to foreigncountries

Increasing Filipinos overseas, with use ofirregular channels on the decline (?)

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Popula

tion (

in m

illio

ns)

PERMANENT TEMPORARY IRREGULAR

Stock of Overseas Filipinos, 1997-2005

AverageAnnualDeploymentof OFWs:897 thousand(2000-2005)

Stock ofFilipinosOverseas:8.08 million(2004)

Source: Ogena (2006) Whither The Philippines InThe 21st Century? A Conference On ThePhilippines, 13-14 July 2006, Institute ofSoutheast Asian Studies, Singapore

Current Development Issues

Poor education access and quality

Declining primary education accessindicators, 2000-2005

-

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Percentage

GER NER GIR NIR

Indicators

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

Source: DepEd BEIS as cited in Philippine Progress Report on the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) An Independent Appraisal of MDG2

Fluctuating CSR and CR andworsening repetition and drop-outsituation

2.897.3667.9969.90

2005-2006

2.246.9869.0671.32

2004-2005

2.186.8970.2471.84

2003-2004

2.086.6971.5572.44

2002-2003

1.955.7574.9475.90

2001-2002

Repetition Rate

Drop-outRate

CompletionRate

CohortSurvival

Rate

SchoolYear

Source: DepED Basic Education Information System (BEIS) as cited in Philippine Progress Report on the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) An Independent Appraisal ofMDG2

Typical Progression of a Sample Cohort ofPupil

6658

43

2314

100

Grade 1 Grade 6

Grad.

1st Year 4th Year

Grad.

College 1st

Year

College

Degree

Grad.

Source: Department of Education as cited in Philippine Progress Report on the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) An Independent Appraisal of MDG2

Current Development Issues

Poor education access and quality Low education and health budget and

expenditures Poverty and Malnutrition

Trends in GNPTrends in GNP

and GDPand GDP

-15.0

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

19

70

19

72

19

74

19

76

19

78

19

80

19

82

19

84

19

86

19

88

19

90

19

92

19

94

19

96

19

98

20

00

GNP GDP

Source: Source: TemploTemplo 2003 2003

Trends in PovertyTrends in Poverty

incidenceincidence

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1988 1991 1994 1997 2000

%

Rural

Philippines

Source: Reyes 2003Source: Reyes 2003

28.4%Urban

From Barba (2007) Dual Malnutrition: the Philippine Case. PhilippinePopulation Association National Conference, July 28, 2007, Cebu City

Per Capita Income and Nutrition, 2003Per Capita Income and Nutrition, 2003

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

NC

R

S. Luz

on

C. Luz

on

Iloco

s

Cag

ayan

Valley

W. V

isay

as

C. V

isaya

s

E. Visa

yas

W. M

inda

no

Car

aga

Bicol

ARM

M

in p

es

os

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

in p

erc

en

t

Per capita income

% Underweight Children (0 - 5 years old)

Balisacan, A (2005) as cited in Barba (2007) Dual Malnutrition: the Philippine Case. Philippine Population Association National Conference, July 28, 2007, Cebu City

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1 Q

2 Q

3 Q

4 Q

5 Q

%Incomequintile

0 – 5 y 6 – 10 yUnderweight

Malnutrition among children byMalnutrition among children byhousehold income, 2003household income, 2003

Mean per capitaincome: P22,277

1Q = P5,973.55

5Q = P57,573.83

From Barba (2007) DualMalnutrition: thePhilippine Case.Philippine PopulationAssociation NationalConference, July 28,2007, Cebu City

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1 Q

2 Q

3 Q

4 Q

5 Q

%Incomequintile

0 – 5 y 6 – 10 yUnderweight

Malnutrition among children byMalnutrition among children byhousehold income, 2003household income, 2003

0.40.7

1.8

0.7

6.5

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Overweight-for-height (0 - 5y)

Mean per capitaincome: P22,277

1Q = P5,973.55

5Q = P57,573.83From Barba (2007) DualMalnutrition: thePhilippine Case.Philippine PopulationAssociation NationalConference, July 28,2007, Cebu City

Double burden of malnutritionDouble burden of malnutrition

undernutrition in children and overweight among adults

0

10

20

30

40

Stunting Overweight males Overweight females

From Barba (2007) DualMalnutrition: thePhilippine Case.Philippine PopulationAssociation NationalConference, July 28,2007, Cebu City

Double burdenDouble burden

Persistent undernutritionand micronutrientdeficiencies amongchildren and vulnerablegroups,

along with rising overweight,obesity and diet- andlifestyle-related NCDs inadults.

From Barba (2007) Dual Malnutrition: the Philippine Case. Philippine Population Association National Conference, July 28, 2007, Cebu City

CoexistenceCoexistence of underweight child andof underweight child andoverweight adult in same householdoverweight adult in same household

20.9 %

From Barba (2007) Dual Malnutrition: the Philippine Case. PhilippinePopulation Association National Conference, July 28, 2007, Cebu City

Current Development Issues

Poor education access and quality Low education and health budget and

expenditures Poverty and Malnutrition Peace and Human Security

“… human securityis the externalprecondition forhumandevelopment…”

(Philippine HumanDevelopment Report2005, p. 2)

Human Insecurity Indicators

Source: Philippine Human Development Report 2005, p. 60

Current Development Issues

Poor education access and quality Low education and health budget and

expenditures Poverty and Malnutrition Peace and Human Security Environmental degradation and

resource depletion

Most Populous Countries, 2009 and 2050

Source: PRB. 2009 World Populaion Data Sheet

How is this related to YOU?

Population = people

POPDEV FrameworkMicro Level

Population Variables Development Factors

Manageable Family Size

Delay Entry to Marital Union

Better Maternal and Child Health

Protection and Safety of Migrants

Quality Basic Education for All

Expanded Productive Capacity

Gender Equity and Women Empowerment

Increased Labor Force Participation

Increased Income

Environmental Development and Preservation

Policy on Population

Couples have the responsibility todecide how many children to have inaccordance with their religious beliefsand the demands of responsibleparenthood for sustainabledevelopment

(Article XV Section 3.1 and Article II, Declaration of Principles andState Policies, Sections 9, 12, 14, 15 and 16 of the 1987 Constitutionof the 1987 Constitution as cited in the PPMP Directional Plan 2001-2004)

Principle of Human Agency

Individualsconstruct their ownlife course throughthe choices andactions they takewithin theopportunities andconstraints ofhistory and socialcircumstances.

Therefore

We need to

EMPOWER

people to enable them to

help themselves achieve what they want

Our Challenge

How do we ensure thatFilipinos are empowered tomake the right decisionstoward their desired goals?