Why CLEWS matter

Why CLEWS matter A Focus on the Energy System of Mauritius

International Energy Workshop 2013, Paris

.

Manuel Welsch, Sebastian Hermann, Mark Howells KTH Royal Institute of Technology

Stockholm

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Why CLEWS Matter A Focus on the Energy System of Mauritius

The CLEWS Approach

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Government vision for making Mauritius a sustainable island focussing on reducing dependence of fossil fuel and reducing GHG emission …

Why Mauritius?

In Mauritius, Climate, Land-use, Energy, and Water Sytems (CLEWS) were expected to be highly interrelated:

• Producer and exporter of sugar (occupying 80% cultivated land area)

• EU decision in 2009 to cut guaranteed sugar import price by 36%

• Dependent on fuel imports (83%) for its energy requirement

• Diverse climate, prone to climate change • Integrated agricultural and energy policy • Small island with clear boundaries • Robust resource data available • Previous case studies

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Aim

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To quantitatively demonstrate the added value of an integrated CLEWS assessment. This is done by comparing conclusions derived from an energy model (“Current Practice Approach”) with those of an integrated “CLEWS approach”.


Energy Water Land Use

AEZ

Water availabilty for each point in the system (on the

island) under different conditions / szenarios

Grid map of Mauritius showing optimal crops,

potential water use, and potential yield including a

„Crop calendar“

Applied Modelling Tools

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Applied Modelling Tools

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Development and calibration of water, energy and land use model using 10 years data (1996- 2005) • WEAP - water • LEAP - energy • AEZ - land production planning Selective integration of the different models using common assumptions and “soft” linkages to calculate: • What are the changes in total costs? • What are the influences to the local water balance? • How changes the local energy balance? • What are local and externally induced GHG emissions?


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Model Set-up – Current Practice Approach


Model Set-up – Current Practice Approach

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LEAP was used to calculate:

• the average power plant dispatching; • future capacity requirements; • ethanol production from sugar cane; • changes in fuel imports to the island due to the substitution of gasoline with

ethanol; • the effects of changes in rainfall patterns on generation; • greenhouse gas emissions on the island; • associated external emissions due to fuel processing and fertiliser supply;


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Model Set-up – CLEWS Approach


Model Set-up – CLEWS Approach

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LEAP was set up exactly the same as in Current Practice approach. Additionally, the following interlinkages were considered:

Input

• Bioenergy production potential and fertiliser requirements for alternative crop; • Additional water pumping demands:

− For urban water supply and sugarcane processing from the water model; − For agricultural irrigation from the land-use model;

• Desalination demand for urban water supply from water model; • Monthly storage volumes & river flows to consider competing water demands;

Output • Water demands for ethanol production and power plant cooling;


Scenarios

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Interlinkages between CLEWS were assessed for different scenarios:

• Investigate the effects of increases in local ethanol production until 2030. • Assessing the impacts of climate change • Considering the implications of growing an alternative crop

Business as Usual Ethanol – 1st generation

Ethanol – 2nd generation

Current Practice Approach

BAU BAU+CC

1GEN 1GEN+CC

2GEN -

CLEWS Approach BAUCLEWS BAU+CCCLEWS

1GENCLEWS 1GEN+CCCLEWS

2GENCLEWS 2NC+CCCLEWS


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Adding Value with CLEWS – Results

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OVERALL WATER WITHDRAWALs AND ENERGY DEMAND IN DIFFERENT CLEW SCENARIOS

Mauritius Total Water Withdrawals Under Different Integrated CLEW Scenarios

Mauritius Total Energy Demand Under Different Integrated CLEW Scenarios

Increasing energy demand for biofuel production: Energy demand increases as demand for water pumping and desalination grows.

260

280

300

320

340

360

380

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Wat

er W

ithd

raw

al in

Mill

ion

Cubi

c M

eter

Reference Scenario

Production of Ethanol

Production of 1st generation ethanol under the "Worst Case" climate change scenario

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

5500

6000

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Ener

gy D

eman

d in

Gig

awat

t H

ours

Reference Scenario

Ethanol Production

Production of ethanol under a "Worst Case" climate change scenario

Water withdrawals increase under climate change scenarios: To compensate for reduced rainfall, irrigation will have to be expanded to previously rain-fed sugar plantations and farms. This leads to higher withdrawals of surface and ground water.

THE IMPACT OF TRANSFORMING TWO SUGAR PROCESSING PLANTS TO PRODUCE 2nd GENERATION ETHANOL (PROJECTED FOR 2020)

Reduced fuel imports Reduced greenhouse gas

emissions Reduced expenditures

The import dependence decreases. Gasoline imports are reduced as ethanol replaces gasoline as a motor fuel. Some bagasse is diverted from electricity generation to ethanol production, which needs to be compensated for by increased imports of coal and distillate oil.

Total greenhouse gas emissions are reduced. Tailpipe and upstream emissions are reduced as gasoline is replaced by ethanol. The increased use of coal and distillate oil (in place of bagasse) for electricity generation results in smaller additional emissions.

Ethanol production has an economic benefit. As some of the sugar is converted to ethanol, the expenditures for sugar refining and gasoline imports are reduced. This outweighs the reduced sugar export earnings and the costs associated with ethanol production and the increases in oil and coal imports.

Baseline

[100

0 U

S$ -

Rea

l 200

5]

Gasoline upstream

Oil & coal prod.

Electricity generation

Transportation

[100

0 G

J]

[ton

CO

2eq]

Oil

Coal

Gasoline

Gasoline imports

Sugar refining.

Sugar exports

Oil imports

Ethanol prod.


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Adding Value with CLEWS – Results

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Results - Changes in Generation in 2030

BAU+CC compared to BAU BAU+CCCLEWS compared to BAUCLEWS

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Results - BAU+CCCLEWS compared to BAUCLEWS

Changes in Electricity Demand related to Water Requirements in 2030

Changes in Generation in 2030

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Current Practice Approach:

• 1st GEN ethanol very advantageous − +43.5 mill. USD, − 1,950 TJ ethanol, − -148,000 tons of CO2-eq

• 2nd GEN less attractive

Summary of Findings

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CLEWS Approach:

• 1st GEN ethanol less advantageous − +16.1 mill. USD,

• 2nd GEN remains less attractive

• 1st GEN with climate change − -40% hydropower generation − +400 TJ of coal and oil

imports − -106,000 tons of CO2-eq

• 1st GEN with climate change − +67,000 MWh for water supply − Hydropower generation only 28% of

the Current Practice Approach − +1,380 TJ of coal and oil imports − +10,000 tons of CO2-eq

• New Crop scenario − Less favorable, but could not have

been assessed without CLEWS


Factors which may indicate that a CLEWS approach should be applied:

• Integrated policies with potential implications for multiple resource systems

• High shares of hydropower • Climate change induced rainfall changes • Water stress • Conflicting water management priorities • Holistic assessment of greenhouse gas emissions

Does the effort justify the added value?

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High-level CLEWS panel announced by the Government of Mauritius at Rio+20 conference to ensure an integrated approach to CLEWS-related policies.


• Welsch M., Hermann S., Howells M., Rogner H.H., Young C., Ramma I., et al. Adding Value with CLEWS – Modelling the Energy System and its Interdependencies for Mauritius. Applied Energy, reviewed.

• M. Howells, S. Hermann, M. Welsch, R.E. Segerström, H. Rogner, T. Alfstad, et al. Integrated analysis for climate change, land-use, energy and water strategies. Nature Climate Change, in press.

• S. Hermann, M. Welsch, R.E. Segerström, M.I. Howells, C. Young, T. Alfstad, et al. Climate, land, energy and water (CLEW) interlinkages in Burkina Faso: An analysis of agricultural intensification and bioenergy production. Natural Resources Forum, 36 (4), pp. 245–262, 2012.

Publications

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Documents

Why CLEWS matter