WHY STUDY COLOMBIA?

• Surprisingly, it is longest running democracy in the region. • It had the longest lasting (leftist) guerilla movements in the

region• It is a another example of the political costs of drugs and the

problem that US consumption poses for Latin American democracy

• Colombia is case study in US involvement in the region and changing USFP paradigms about support for democracy

• Colombia was frequently referred to a failed state; it is now increasingly cited as a role model of how to build and sustain democracy in a society that is marked by deep conflict.

SOME (SURPRISING) BASIC FACTS

• Size: About 2X France or 3X Montana• Geography: Three regions (sea, mountains, & Amazon)…

Think about Afgahnistan• Population: 47 million or 2/3 Britain or France• Life expectancy: 68 men, 76 women. About the same as

Brazil, but murder is the #1 cause of premature death by men.

• Military expenditure: Mexico= .5%, Colombia = 3.4%, Brazil = 2.6%, US = 4.5% GDP (‘05).

• Drugs = 25-33% of the value of Colombia’s legal exports (oil, coffee, flowers, shrimp, textiles)

• 2007 GDP per head: (purchasing power parity): US$: 8,063 Brazil = $9,746; Mexico=$13,720

HISTORY THAT MATTERS FOR COLOMBIAN DEMOCRACY

• The viceroyalty of New Grenada (Bogotá, 1717/1739): Centralized, high stakes politics from early on

• The War for Independence (1810-1819) and Gran Colombia (until 1830)

• The split of Simón Bolivar and Francisco de Paula Santander lead to emergence of the Conservative and Liberal parties (1840s).

• The Thousand Days War (1899-1902), a civil war causing 100 K deaths

• 1904: Panamanian independence with US support• La Violencia (1948-1957), which killed approximately 300K. • The military dictatorship of Gustavo Rojao Pinilla (1953-57):

The only time the violence stops is with strongman rule (but, to their credit, Colombian’s didn’t like this either)

ONE OF THE OLDEST (AND PERPETUALLY TROUBLED) DEMOCRACIES IN THE REGION

• The National Front Regime (1958-1974): (1) Alternating 4-yr. presidency, (2) all legislative bodies equally divided, (3) all appointments equally divided, (4) no other new political parties, (5) the adoption of a merit based civil service, and all (6) legislation in the Natl. Cong. had to pass both houses.

• Armed Rebellion: (1) The foundation of the FARC (the Armed Revolutionary Forces of Colombia, 1964); (2) the ELN (National Liberation Army), and the (3) AUC (The United Self-defense Groups of Colombia). What do these groups want?

• The 1980s: drug trafficking, heightened civil war (1996-2002 > 25 K murders annually)

• The 1991 Constitution: Making political space for new forces• Recent presidents have a mixed record. The Ernesto Samper scandal

(1994-98), various peace deals under Andrés Pastrana (1988-2002), and the election of a hardliner (Alvaro Uribe, 2002-2010)

• The FARC is on its last leg: March 2008: Manuel Marulanda, aka “Tirofijo” (“Sureshot”) dies

THE STRUCTURE OF COLOMBIA’S DEMOCRACY

• Its presidential system: Plurality elections with a second round; reelection now permitted but limited to two successive terms. Very strong decree powers.

• A bi-cameral Congress: Senate: 100 seats for four-year terms selected using national PR, with provision that any party that gets 1% vote gets a seat. House: 166 seats, four years terms; elected by district-level OLPR since 2006 (between 1991-2006, they used closed lists)

• Direct democracy: Recalls, initiative and referendum provisions for Constitutional amendments.

• Federalism: Like most other countries in Latin America with regional differences, Colombia has very strong federalism.

• The main parties: The two party system splintered after adoption of the 1991 Constitution, and today they are personality centered. The Liberals and Conservatives are still the largest parties, but there are over 70 registered parties, dozens of which have won national congressional seats.

HOW BAD DID THINGS GET IN COLOMBIA?

HOW DID COLOMBIA BEAT THE FARC?

DID US ASSISTANCE MAKE A DIFFERENCE?

THE TWO WARS

WHAT HAPPENS WHEN THE WELL OFF ARE TARGETED BY VIOLENCE?

WAS THE WAR ON DRUGS WON, TOO? MORE BEING ELIMINATED, BUT….

WAS THE WAR ON DRUGS WON, TOO? MORE BEING ELIMINATED, BUT….

IS COLOMBIA A FAILED DEMOCRATIC STATE?

• What kinds of problems can democracy solve in a place like Colombia? What does it struggle with?

• How should democracies deal with anti-democratic elements and force? Is Colombia’s effort to open its political system to microparties a good idea, for example?

• Was Uribe’s harsh approach the best way to deal with violence resistance? What have

• How much responsibility does the US bear for Colombia’s drug issues and the political consequences of narcotrafficking? Can we draw larger lessons for democracy from Colombia