Winter Forecast 2012-2013

George H. Taylor, CCM

Applied Climate Services, Corvallis

My forecast from August

appliedclimate.wordpress.com

My forecast from August

September: continued warmer and drier than average

October: mild and dry first half but stormy second half

November: just the opposite of October: stormy, mild first half but drier second half. Ski areas open by Thanksgiving.

December: relatively dry and mild but with valley fog

January: similar to December

February: active month, with considerable rain; 50-50 chance of low-elevation snow

March: wet, windy and wild

April: a dry and mild second half

May: dry and mild

Analog years

PDO: 1933 2000 2011MEI: 1958 1980 2005

Nov 8 (Reuters) - The U.S. national weather forecaster has called off its El Niño watch five months after raising the alert as it is now less likely that the much-feared phenomenon that can wreak havoc on global weather will emerge.

Have you heard about El Niño?

Pacific Ocean waters warming up again this year.

Best be ready for El Niño

This winter will be hell because the weather will be weird

And if you own a house upon the beach at Malibu you should be scared.

It’s because of El Niño

This winter in New York it will be 70 degrees

Because of El Niño

It will be as cold in Florida as it will be in Maine

And every day the forecast in Los Angeles is mudslides mixed with rain.

If you’re wondering why it rains all night,the weather bites --- El Niño

And if you haven’t had a drop of rainthen you can blame El Niño

Well, the Weather Channel’s so confused, it’s such a mess.

If your basement has to be pumped out,then curse and shout, “El Niño!”

There’s no sunshine in the skies today

It’s gonna rain, rain, rain ‘til the month of May

I guess you say, why do I get wet today?

La Niña, talking ‘bout La Niña -- La Niña!

There’ll be soooo much snow in the mountains this year

And lowland flooding, baby, is something to fearI guess you say, why is there a

flood today?La Niña, talking ‘bout La Niña --

La Niña!

It’s gonna be a dry, dry winter down in LADrought in Arizona, and along the Southern WayI guess you say, why is it so dry

today?La Niña, talking ‘bout La Niña --

La Niña!

Talkin’ ‘bout La Niña….There’s no sunshine in the skies

today, it’s La Niña,It might even flood today,

La NiñaTalkin’ ‘bout, talkin’ ‘bout, talkin’

‘bout La Niña