Wmi Alhap Final Report 2004

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Alberta Hail Suppression Project 2004 Field Program Final Report Page: 1

Weather odi!ication "nc# $ctober 2004


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ALBERTA HAIL SUPPRESSION PROJECT

FINAL REPORT2004

%err& W# 'rauss(rausst)telusplanet#net

*ditor

A Program !or theSeeding o! +on,ecti,e +louds

-ith .laciogenic /uclei toitigate rban Hail amage in the

Pro,ince o! Alberta +anada

b&

Weather odi!ication "nc#302 5 20thStreet /orthFargo /orth a(ota

#S#A# 6102---#-eathermod#com

!or

Alberta Se,ere Weather anagement Societ&7800 90 5 11thA,e# S# W#

+algar& Alberta+anada %2R 0*4

$ctober 2004

mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]


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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

%his report summaries the acti,ities and data collected during the 2004 !ield operations o! the AlbertaHail Suppression Project# %his -as the ninth &ear o! operations b& Weather odi!ication "nc# ;W"< o!Fargo /orth a(ota under contract -ith the Alberta Se,ere Weather anagement Societ& o! +algar&

Alberta# %he program continues to be !unded entirel& b& pri,ate insurance companies in Alberta -iththe sole intent to mitigate the damage to propert& b& hail# %his cloud5seeding project started a second

!i,e5&ear term in 2001 because the insurance losses due to hail -ere appro=imatel& 60> less thane=pected !or the !irst !i,e5&ear project 1??852000# %he project design has remained the same# %heproject area e=tends !rom High Ri,er in the south to @acombe in the north -ith priorit& gi,en to the t-olargest cities o! +algar& and Red eer# %he operational period -as une 1 stto September 16th 2004#

Hail !ell -ithin the project area on 36 da&s# @arger than gol! ball sie hail !ell on ul& 1? th-est o!Sundre# .ol! ball sie hail -as reported on !i,e da&s ;une 13B ul& 1 16 30B Aug 24


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;+"< computer s&stem -as installed# %he ne- +" s&stem -as routinel& set to displa& an animated15hour mo,ie loop o! the higher resolution polar radar data super5imposed on a terrain mapbac(ground# Radar images -ere sent to the "nternet at 65min inter,als# %he radar per!ormed ,er& -elland there -ere no major interruptions during the season# High speed "nternet -as installed !or thepilots in +algar& and Red eer so that the pilots could monitor the storm e,olution and motion -ith 65min updates# %his ga,e the pilots better (no-ledge o! the storm situation the& -ere going to encounter-hen the& -ere launched#

W" -as a collaborator once again this &ear along -ith scientists !rom *n,ironment +anadas climateresearch branch in Sas(atoon and the ni,# o! Alberta in a special research project led b& r# SusanS(one ;Facult& o! .eomatics *ngineering ni,# o! +algar&< called A.A* ;Alberta .PS Atmosphericoisture *,aluation


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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

W" -ishes to ac(no-ledge the (ind support o! Robin Seacombe ;President


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Figure 1: Robin Seacombe (President ASWMS) and Jim Renick (Project Director).

Figure : !at"erine #agg (!F$ ASWMS) and %ob Mac&a' (ASWMS %oard member).



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Figure : Dan Munroe (ASWMS %oard Member) and #err' &rauss (Project Manager).

Figure : Mac Mc*uarrie (!"ie+ Pi,ot) and Dar', $-Dod (Meteoro,ogist).



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Alberta Hail Suppression Project 2004 Field Program Final Report Page:

Figure /: Meteoro,ogists: #imot"' Reit" and Wes,e' 0oorda.

Figure 2: Pi,ots: Re3 Watson and !raig 4ee.



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Alberta Hail Suppression Project 2004 Field Program Final Report Page: ?

Figure 5: Pi,ots: 6ain 4ange and Jac7ue,ine Sc"ar++.

Figure 8: Pi,ots: 6abrie, 6arcia and A,an Steart.



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Figure 9: Pi,ots: Jo"n Jo"nston and Joe, immer.

Figure 1;: Je++ Robinson (


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TABLE OF CONTENTS

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY.......................................................................................................................... 3

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS........................................................................................................................... 5

TABLE OF CONTENTS.........................................................................................................................

LIST OF FIGURES................................................................................................................................. 4

LIST OF TABLES...................................................................................................................................!

INTRODUCTION................................................................................................................................ .... "

THE 2004 FIELD PROGRAM.................................................................................................................20

PROJECT OBJECTIVES....................................................................................................................... 2

PR"$R"%"*S###################################################################################################################################### 22

CONCEPTUAL HAIL MODEL ...............................................................................................................22

HA"@SPPR*SS"$/HLP$%H*S"S########################################################################################################23PR*+"P"%A%"$/*FF"+"*/+L############################################################################################################### 26

CLARIFICATION OF CLOUD SEEDING GUIDELINES........................................................................2#

$/S*%$FS**"/.################## #################### #################### #################### #################### ################# ###### # 28"*/%"F"+A%"$/$FHA"@PR$+"/.S%$RS####################################################################################28+@$S**"/.*%H$$@$.L#######################################################################################################29/".H%%"*S**"/.################### #################### #################### #################### #################### ################## ### 2S%$PP"/.S**"/.#################### #################### #################### #################### ##################### ########### ###### #### 2S**"/.RA%*S################## ##################### #################### #################### #################### ############### ###### ###### # 2S**"/.A%*R"A@S########################################################################################################################2?F@AR**FF*+%"J*/*SS%*S%S###########################################################################################################30

PROGRAM ELEMENTS AND INFRASTRUCTURE..............................................................................33

GROUND SCHOOL................................................................................................................................ 33

PUBLIC RELATIONS.............................................................................................................................34

FLIGHT OPERATIONS.......................................................................................................................... 34

A"R5%RAFF"++$/%R$@#####################################################################################################################34+@$S**"/.A"R+RAF%############################################################################################################### 38

Piper Cheyenne II...........................................................................................................................36Beechcraft King-Air C90.................................................................................................................37C340A Aircraft .............................................................................................................................. 37Meteorological Aircraft Instr!entation.......................................................................................... 3"

RADAR CONTROL AND COMMUNICATIONS CENTER....................................................................3!

RADAR .................................................................................................................................................. 40

RAAR+A@"ERA%"$/+H*+'S############################################################################################################41

AIRCRAFT TRACKING GLOBAL POSITIONING SYSTEM $GPS%......................................................44

SUMMARY OF SEEDING OPERATIONS..............................................................................................45

A"R+RAF%F@".H%SA/A$/%$FS**"/.####################################################################################46S**"/.A$/%S########################################################################################################################## 48

COMPARISON OF 2004 WITH PREVIOUS YEARS............................................................................. 4&



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STORM TRACK MAPS.......................................................................................................................... 4!

METEOROLOGICAL DATA...................................................................................................................4"

W*A%H*RF$R*+AS%"/.###################################################################################################################60+$/J*+%"J*AL+A%*.$RL ;++


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+# A"R+RAF%$P*RA%"$/SF@".H%SARL 2004###########################################################################123#F@".H% SARL %AE@* 2004#############################################################################################126*#F$RS######################### #################### #################### #################### #################### ##################### ###### # 12F#SP*+"F"+A%"$/S F$R P"P*R +H*L*//* "" A"R+RAF%#######################################################132.#SP*+"F"+A%"$/S F$R +*SS/A +5340 A"R+RAF%###############################################################133H#SP*+"F"+A%"$/S F$R E**+H+RAF% '"/. A"R +?0 A"R+RAF%#########################################134"#.R$/ S+H$$@ A.*/A####################################################################################################136#A"@L *%*$R$@$."+A@ F$R*+AS% S%A%"S%"+S 2004####################################################138'#PR$*+% P*RS$//*@ A/ %*@*PH$/* @"S%####################################################################140



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LIST OF FIGURES

FIGURE * ROBIN SEACOMBE $PRESIDENT ASWMS% AND JIM RENICK $PROJECT DIRECTOR%................................................................................................................................................................... #

FIGURE 2* CATHERINE TAGG $CFO ASWMS% AND BOB MACKAY $ASWMS BOARD MEMBER%..#

FIGURE 3* DAN MUNROE $ASWMS BOARD MEMBER% AND TERRY KRAUSS $PROJECTMANAGER%...............................................................................................................................................&

FIGURE 4* MAC MC+UARRIE $CHIEF PILOT% AND DARYL O,DOWD $METEOROLOGIST%.. .... .... .&

FIGURE 5* METEOROLOGISTS* TIMOTHY REITH AND WESLEY HOVORDA.................................!

FIGURE #* PILOTS* REX WATSON AND CRAIG LEE.........................................................................!

FIGURE &* PILOTS* GAVIN LANGE AND JAC+UELINE SCHARFF..................................................."

FIGURE !* PILOTS* GABRIEL GARCIA AND ALAN STEWART........................................................."

FIGURE "* PILOTS* JOHN JOHNSTON AND JOEL 'IMMER........................................................... 0

FIGURE 0* JEFF ROBINSON $ELECTRONICS% AND GARY HILLMAN $AIRCRAFTMAINTENANCE%..................................................................................................................................... 0

FIGURE * THE AVERAGE NUMBER OF HAIL DAYS PER YEAR) BASED ON THE "5-"!0CLIMATE NORMALS OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA $"!&% AND TAKE FROM ETKIN AND BRUN$"""%...................................................................................................................................................... "

FIGURE 2* MAP OF SOUTHERN ALBERTA SHOWING THE PROJECT AREA AND THE RADARLOCATION AT THE OLDS(DIDSBURY AIRPORT. FIGURE COURTESY STEVE FICK) CANADIANGEOGRAPHIC $SHERMATA) ""!%......................................................................................................2

FIGURE 3* THE CONCEPTUAL MODEL OF HAILSTONE FORMATION AND HAIL MITIGATION

PROCESSES FOR ALBERTA $ADAPTED FROM WMO) ""5%. THIS SCHEMATIC FIGURESHOWS THE CLOUD SEEDING METHODOLOGY AT CLOUD(TOP AND CLOUD(BASE FOR AMATURE HAILSTORM.......................................................................................................................... 24

FIGURE 4* A THREE(DIMENSIONAL SCHEMATIC FIGURE OF AN ALBERTA HAILSTORM)SHOWING THE CLOUD SEEDING METHODOLOGY WITHIN THE NEW GROWTH 'ONE.............25

FIGURE 5* PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY FOR HIGH PLAINS CONVECTIVE STORMS. KNOWNSUPERCELL HAILSTORMS ARE LABELED S. STORMS THAT PRODUCED RAIN ONLY ARELABELED R $BROWNING) "&&%. ........................................................................................................2#

FIGURE #* A PHOTO OF A CLOUD SEEDING PLANE DROPPING EJECTABLE FLARESDURING A CLOUD SEEDING PENETRATION $PHOTO COURTESY JOHN ULAN%........................ .2!

FIGURE &* PILOTS CRAIG LEE AND REX WATSON ATTACHING THE EJECTABLE FLARERACKS ON THE BELLY OF A CHEYENNE SEEDING AIRCRAFT.....................................................2"

FIGURE !* HAIL STOP 2) C340 AIRCRAFT SHOWN SEEDING WITH ACETONE SOLUTIONBURNERS AND BURN(IN(PLACE $BIP% FLARES. .............................................................................30

FIGURE "* YIELD OF ICE CRYSTALS $CORRECTED% PER GRAM PYROTECHNIC VERSUSCLOUD TEMPERATURE. OPEN DIAMOND SYMBOLS ARE FOR EXPERIMENTS WITH CLOUDLWC $LI+UID WATER CONTENT% OF .5 G M(3) WHILE THE FILLED SYMBOLS ARE FOREXPERIMENTS WITH LWC E+UAL TO 0.5 G M(3..............................................................................3



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FIGURE 20* TIMES FOR #3 $DIAMOND SYMBOLS% AND "0 $S+UARE SYMBOLS% ICEFORMATION VERSUS SUPERCOOLING FOR THE ICE PYROTECHNIC AEROSOLS. OPEN ANDFILLED SYMBOLS ARE FOR CLOUD LWC $LI+UID WATER CONTENT% OF .5 AND 0.5 G M(3)RESPECTIVELY..................................................................................................................................... 32

FIGURE 2* A SCHEMATIC OF THE OPERATIONAL ELEMENTS OF THE ALBERTA HAILSUPPRESSION PROJECT.................................................................................................................... 33

FIGURE 22* SCHEMATIC FIGURE SHOWING AIRCRAFT CLOUD SEEDING BLOCK ALTITUDESRE+UIRED FOR AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL $ATC%...............................................................................35

FIGURE 23* PIPER CHEYENNE II AIRCRAFT $N&4&RE% DESIGNATED AS HAIL(STOP SHOWNAT THE CALGARY AIRPORT............................................................................................................... 3#

FIGURE 24* BEECHCRAFT KING(AIR C"0 AIRCRAFT $N"FG% DESIGNATED AS HAIL(STOP 3SHOWN AT THE RED DEER REGIONAL AIRPORT. ..................................................................... ..3&

FIGURE 25* C340A AIRCRAFT $N"!5#0% DESIGNATED AS HAIL(STOP 2 AND CONFIGURED TOSEED WITH DROPPABLE FLARES) END(BURNING FLARES) AND AGI ACETONE BURNERS... .3!

FIGURE 2#* TIM REITH IN THE COMMUNICATIONS CONTROL ROOM) SHOWING THE CIDD)TITAN) AND METEO/AIRLINK COMPUTERS...................................................................................... 3"

FIGURE 2&* TITAN DUAL(DISPLAY SHOWING THE VARIOUS RADAR PICTURES ANDSATELLITE PHOTO AVAILABLE TO THE RADAR CONTROLLER ON 3(JULY(2004....................3"

FIGURE 2!* WMI(NCAR CIDD DISPLAY SHOWING RADAR REFLECTIVITY DATA)TOPOGRAPHY) AIRCRAFT TRACKS AND THE SIMULTANEOUS DISPLAY OF SATELLITE ANDSYNOPTIC DATA...................................................................................................................................40

FIGURE 2"* WMI C(BAND RADAR AT THE OLDS(DIDSBURY AIRPORT........................................4

FIGURE 30* RADAR CALIBRATION OF RDAS DIGITAL COUNTS TO E+UIVALENT RADARREFLECTIVITY POWER $DB'% FOR THE WMI RADAR AT OLDS(DIDSBURY DURING THE 2004FIELD SEASON......................................................................................................................................43

FIGURE 3* AIRCRAFT GLOBAL POSITIONING SYSTEM $GPS% FLIGHT TRACKS) AND REAL(TIME INFORMATION VIA THE AIRLINK TELEMETRY SYSTEM ON JULY 5) 2004........................45

FIGURE 32* THE FRE+UENCY OF OCCURRENCE AND CUMULATIVE DISTRIBUTIONS OFAIRCRAFT TAKE(OFF AND LANDING TIMES FOR ALL FLIGHTS AS A FUNCTION ON TIMEDURING 2004......................................................................................................................................... 4#

FIGURE 33* AMOUNT OF AGI DISPENSED PER OPERATIONAL DAY IN 2004..............................4&

FIGURE 34* STORM TRACK MAP FOR 2004 $COURTESY JIM RENICK%.........................................4"

FIGURE 35* THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN WB' HEIGHT AND DAILY CDC FOR 3 DAYS OF

JULY 2004.............................................................................................................................................. 5!

FIGURE 3#* THE FRE+UENCY HISTOGRAM OF CALGARY WB' HEIGHT $FT AGL% FOR NO(HAIL. ...................................................................................................................................................... 5"

FIGURE 3&* THE FRE+UENCY HISTOGRAM OF CALGARY WB' HEIGHT $FT AGL% FOR ANY(HAIL........................................................................................................................................................ 5"

FIGURE 3!* THE FRE+UENCY HISTOGRAM OF CALGARY WB' HEIGHT $FT AGL% FOR LARGE(HAIL $GRAPE SI'E AND LARGER%......................................................................................................#0



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FIGURE 3"* COMPARISON BETWEEN RADIOSONDE AND GPS DERIVED INTEGRATEDPRECIPITABLE WATER MEASURED AT CEA3 $OLDS(DIDSBURY% DURING JULY 2003 $FIGURECOURTESY CRAIG SMITH%.................................................................................................................. #

FIGURE 40* SCATTERGRAM BETWEEN PRECIPITABLE WATER MEASURED BY THERADIOSONDE COMPARED WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER MESURED BY THE GPS NETWORK$FIGURE COURTESY CRAIG SMITH%..................................................................................................#

FIGURE 4* DR. GEOFF STRONG AND LESLEY HILL $UNIV. ALBERTA% AND THE MOBILEMETEOROLOGICAL AUTOSTATION USED FOR AGAME TO CONDUCT MORNING ANDAFTERNOON SURFACE TRANSECTS OF PRESSURE) TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY INSEARCH OF THE DRYLINE OVER THE FOOTHILLS DURING JULY 2004......................................#3

FIGURE 42* REPRESENTATIONS OF A PARTICLE SI'E DISTRIBUTION BY VARIOUS BULKSCHEMES............................................................................................................................................ .. ##

FIGURE 43* VERTICAL PROFILES OF +H) NTH) 'EH) AND DMH AFTER 40 MIN CALCULATEDBY THE INDICATED BULK SCHEMES AND THE ANALYTIC BIN MODEL $ANA%............................##

FIGURE 44* VERTICAL PROFILE OF THE RATIOS OF M$2.#% COMPUTED BY VARIOUS BULKSCHEMES TO M$2.#% FROM THE ANALYTIC MODEL AFTER ! MIN OF SEDIMENTATIONTHROUGH A CONSTANT UPDRAFT OF 0 M S(......................................................................... ....#&

FIGURE 45* HORI'ONTAL CROSS(SECTION $&00 MB% FROM THE TM SIMULATION SHOWINGTOTAL E+UIVALENT RADAR REFLECTIVITY $SHADING INTERVAL 5 DB'% HAIL MASSCONTENT $LIGHT CONTOURS) INTEVAL IS G M(3% RAIN MASS CONTENT $DARKCONTOURS) INTERVAL IS G M(3%....................................................................................................#!

FIGURE 4#* ETA MODEL ANALYSIS OF 250 MB WIND SPEED AT 00') # JULY 2004......... ...... .&0

FIGURE 4&* ETA MODEL ANALYSIS OF 500 MB VORTICITY AT 00' # JULY 2004......................&0

FIGURE 4!* SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 00' # JULY 2004..................................................................&

FIGURE 4"* ETA 2 HR FORECAST ATMOSPHERIC SOUNDING FOR CALGARY AT # PM

$00UTC% ON JULY 5TH 2004. ALSO SHOWN IS A LIFTED PARCEL WITH TEMPERATURE 2#CAND DEW POINT 3C AS REPORTED IN CALGARY AT 23'............................................................&2

FIGURE 50* ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE FROM OLDS(DIDSBURY AT 2') 5 JULY 2004)OVERLAID WITH THE CALGARY ETA 2 HR FORECAST SOUNDING FOR 24'............................&3

FIGURE 5* MAP OF SURFACE STREAMLINES AND E+UIVALENT POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE$THETA(E% AT 22' ON JULY 5TH) 2004.............................................................................................&3

FIGURE 52* SURFACE MOISTURE(FLUX DIVERGENCE AND WIND GUST MAP AT 22' $4 PM%ON JULY 5TH) 2004.............................................................................................................................&4

FIGURE 53* SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGE AT 23' ON JULY 5TH) 2004....................... ......&5

FIGURE 54* VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE AT 230' ON JULY 5TH) 2004......................................&5

FIGURE 55* MAXIMUM REFLECTIVITY MAP FOR JULY 5TH) 2004.......................................... .....

FIGURE 5#* MAXIMUM VERTICAL(INTEGRATED LI+UID $VIL% MAP FOR JULY 5TH) 2004..... ..&&

FIGURE 5&* MAXIMUM KINETIC ENERGY FLUX MAP FOR JULY 5TH) 2004................................&&

FIGURE 5!* A SERIES OF RADAR IMAGES DURING THE CRITICAL TIME PERIOD ON JULY5TH) 2004 $003&' TO 0332'% WHEN STORM MOVED OUT OF THE FOOTHILLS AND TRACKED



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ACROSS SOUTH CALGARY $GRAPHIC PROVIDED BY JIM RENICK%. THE SEEDING TRACKSOF HS $GREEN%) HS2 $YELLOW%) AND HS3 $BLUE% ARE SHOWN. THE CELL TOP HEIGHTS$KM% ARE ALSO INDICATED................................................................................................................ &!

FIGURE 5"* AIRCRAFT TRACKS ON JULY 5TH 2004.....................................................................&"

FIGURE #0* ETA MODEL 2 HR FORECAST 250 MB MAP AT 00') AUGUST 24TH) 2004.............!0

FIGURE #* ETA MODEL 2 HR FORECAST OF 500 MB MAP AT 00') AUGUST 24TH) 2004... .. .!0

FIGURE #2* ETA FORECAST SOUNDING FOR CALGARY AT 00' WITH ACTUAL SURFACECONDITIONS AT 23' $TEMPERATURE & C) DEW POINT 0 C%......................................................!

FIGURE #3* MAXIMUM REFLECTIVITY MAP FOR AUGUST 24TH) 2004.........................................!2

FIGURE #4* MAXIMUM VERTICAL INTEGRATED LI+UID $VIL% MAP FOR AUGUST 24TH) 2004.. !2

FIGURE #5* MAXIMUM KINETIC ENERGY FLUX MAP FOR AUGUST 24TH) 2004..........................!3

FIGURE ##* AIRCRAFT TRACKS ON 24(AUGUST12004..................................................................!3

FIGURE #&* HAIL PHOTO TAKEN IN GRANDVIEW HEIGHTS SW EDMONTON BETWEEN &30(!20 MDT ON JULY ) 2004 BY JULIAN BRIMELOW. .....................................................................!4

FIGURE #!* WHITEMUD DR AND 5" ST. JULY 2004 $PHOTO REFERENCEHTTP*//GROUPS.MSN.COM/VELV/EDMONTONJULYHAILSTORM.MSNW%...................................!4

FIGURE #"* ETA MODEL 2 HR FORECAST OF 250 MB MAP AT 00') JULY TH) 2004......... ....!5

FIGURE &0* ETA MODEL 2 HR FORECAST OF 500 MB MAP AT 00') JULY TH) 2004......... ....!5

FIGURE &* 2' SOUNDING WITH 20' SFC CONDITIONS $T2 C) TD# C%..............................!#

FIGURE &2* MAP OF SURFACE STREAMLINES AND E+UIVALENT POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE$THETA(E% AT 20' ON JULY TH) 2004.............................................................................................!#

FIGURE &3* SURFACE MOISTURE(FLUX DIVERGENCE AND WIND GUST MAP AT 22' $4 PM% ONJULY TH 2004.................................................................................................................................... !&

FIGURE &4* PHOTO OF FUNNEL CLOUD TAKEN BY TERRY KRAUSS AT 200#' $2*0# MDT% ON(JULY(2004 FROM THE FRONT STEP OF THE RADAR.................................................................!&

FIGURE &5* RADAR CAPPI FROM THE CARVEL RADAR AT 250') JULY TH 2004...... ......... ...!!

FIGURE * IR SATELLITE PICTURE AT 00' $# PM% ON JULY TH 2004......................................!!

FIGURE &&* 500 MB MAPS AT 2' $# AM MDT% ON JULY TH AND 2' ON JULY 5TH) 2004.. .!"

FIGURE &!* PACIFIC OCEAN SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND TEMPERATUREANOMALIES FOR THE PERIOD OCTOBER 200 TO AUGUST 2004................................................"0

FIGURE &"* DAILY AND ACCUMULATED RAINFALL FOR CALGARY FROM OCTOBER ) 2003TO SEPTEMBER 2&) 2004....................................................................................................................."

FIGURE !0* DAILY AND ACCUMULATED RAINFALL FOR CALGARY FROM OCTOBER ) 2003TO SEPTEMBER 2&) 2004....................................................................................................................."

FIGURE !* DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL PRECIPITATION DURING THE SUMMER OF 2004 INCANADA................................................................................................................................................. "2



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FIGURE !2* DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL TEMPERATURE DURING THE SUMMER OF 2004 INCANADA................................................................................................................................................. "2

FIGURE !3* NORTH AMERICA DROUGHT MONITORING MAP AT THE END OF AUGUST 2004. "3

FIGURE !4* ALBERTA AGRICULTURE FINANCIAL SERVICES CORP HAIL INSURANCE LOSS(TO(RISK AND CLAIMS STATISTICS FROM "&! TO 2004................................................................"4

LIST OF TABLES

TABLE * CENSUS FIGURES FOR THE TOWNS AND CITIES IN THE PROJECT AREA.............. .22

TABLE 2* YIELD RESULTS OF ICE FLARES.% ...................................................................................3

TABLE 3* RATE DATA $LWC .5 G M(3 POINTS ARE AVERAGE VALUES% ................................32

TABLE 4* RADAR PARAMETER CALIBRATION VALUES FOR THE ALBERTA(WMI WR00.........42

TABLE 5* RADAR TRANSMITTED POWER CALIBRATION VALUES MEASURED DURING THE2004 SEASON........................................................................................................................................ 42

TABLE #* OPERATIONAL STATISTICS FOR THE PAST " YEARS...................................................4!

TABLE &* CLOUD SEEDING FLARE USAGE COMPARISON BY AIRCRAFT...................................4!

TABLE !* DESCRIPTION OF CONVECTIVE DAY CATEGORY $CDC% INDEX ..................................50

TABLE "* SUMMARY OF IMPORTANT DAILY ATMOSPHERIC PARAMETERS USED AS INPUTSFOR THE DAILY FORECAST THE CDC DURING 2004............................................................ ..........52

TABLE 0* SUMMARY OF IMPORTANT DAILY ATMOSPHERIC PARAMETERS USED AS INPUTS

FOR THE DAILY FORECAST OF THE CDC DURING 2004............................................................... .53

TABLE * TABLE OF THE OBSERVED VERSUS FORECAST DAYS WITH HAIL AND NO(HAILFOR THE SUMMER OF 2004................................................................................................................ 54

TABLE 2* TABLE OF FORECAST VERSUS OBSERVED CDC DAILY VALUES 2004.............. .....54

TABLE 3* ANNUAL SUMMARY OF CONVECTIVE DAY CATEGORIES $CDC%..............................55

TABLE 4* TABLE OF FORECAST VERSUS OBSERVED CDC DAILY VALUES USINGHAILSCAST DURING THE PERIOD JUNE 3 TO SEPTEMBER 5) 2004.........................................5&

TABLE 5* PROBABILITY OF DETECTION $POD%. FALSE ALARM RATIO $FAR% AND CRITICAL

SUCCESS INDEX $CSI% PERFORMANCE OF HAILCAST AND WMI IN 2002) 2003) AND 2004........5&

TABLE #* LIST OF SOUNDINGS FROM CEA3 $OLDS(DIDSBURY AIRPORT% AS PART OF THEA(GAME STUDY.................................................................................................................................... #4

TABLE &* LIST OF SYMBOLS USED TO REFER TO THE BULK SCHEMES TESTED............ ......#5



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Alberta Hail Suppression Project 2004 Field Program Final Report Page: 1?

INTRODUCTION

Hailstorms pose a serious threat to propert& and crops in the pro,ince o! Alberta# Historicall& claims!or agricultural hail damage are recei,ed on an a,erage o! 60 da&s each &ear bet-een 1 une and 10September ;Summers and Wojti- 1?91


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some topographical !eatures such as the Roc(& ountains# %he in!luence o! local topographical!eatures on mesoscale hail !reDuenc& is a major control# A!ter 1?2 hail !reDuencies in Alberta sho-eda signi!icant increase# %he +it& o! +algar& is in a region that normall& gets bet-een 3 and 4 hailstormseach &ear#

E& o,erla&ing the hail !reDuenc& map -ith the population densit& map the region o! greatest !inancialris( to insurance companies co,ers the area !rom +algar& to Red eer and Roc(& ountain House#For this reason this is the region that has been selected as the target area !or the hail suppressionprogram#

"nsurance claims due to hailstorms in urban areas in man& parts o! the -orld ha,e escalated o,er thepast 10 &ears# en,er +olorado -as pounded b& gol!5ball to tennis5ball sied hail on ul& 11 1??0and damages reached a record ;!or the #S#A# at that time< C826 million# "n +anada the damagesassociated -ith a se,ere hailstorm that struc( +algar& on September 9 1??1 -ere estimated at C400million ;+harlton et al# 1??6


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/e- !ast5acting high5&ield mi=tures !or the sil,er5iodide !lares and acetone solution# %he !lares aremanu!actured b& "ce +r&stal *ngineering ;"+*< o! /orth a(ota# %he ne- generation "+*p&rotechnics produce 1011ice nuclei per gram o! Ag" at 54Q+ and produce bet-een 1013and 1014

ice nuclei per gram o! p&rotechnic bet-een 58Q+ and 510Q+# +S isothermal cloud chamber testsindicate that at a temperature o! 58#3Q+ 83> o! the nuclei are acti,e in 1 min and ?0> acti,e in1#12 minutes# %his high &ield and !ast acting agent is important !or hail suppression since thetime5-indo- o! opportunit& !or success!ul inter,ention o! the hail gro-th process is o!ten less than10 minutes#

se o! the latest .PS trac(ing and ad,anced %"%A/ ;%hunderstorm "denti!ication %rac(ingAnal&sis and /o-casting< computer so!t-are to accuratel& displa& the aircra!t locations on theradar displa&s to impro,e the controlling o! aircra!t and !acilitate the direction o! seeding operationsto the most critical regions o! the storms#

"njection o! the seeding material directl& into the de,eloping cloud turrets as the most !reDuentseeding method#

se o! e=perienced meteorological and a,iation sta!! to direct the seeding aircra!t as -ell as toaccuratel& identi!& the proper regions o! storms !or seedingB

%he target or protected area is sho-n in Figure 12 and !ocuses on the area !rom @acombe in thenorth to High Ri,er in the south -ith priorit& gi,en to the cities o! +algar& and Red eer# %hreeaircra!t speciall& eDuipped to dispense sil,er iodide -ere used# %-o aircra!t ;one Piper +he&enne ""and one +340< -ere based in +algar& and ne- this &ear one Eeechcra!t 'ing Air +?0 based in Redeer# %he radar -as located at the $lds5idsbur& airport# %he project area dimension is appro=imatel&220 (m ;/5S< b& 120 (m ;*5W< or 28000 sD (m#

Figure 1: Ma= o+ sout"ern A,berta s"oing t"e =roject area and t"e radar ,ocation at t"e$,ds@Didsbur' air=ort. Figure courtes' Stee Fick> !anadian 6eogra="ic (S"ermata> 1998).

PROJECT OBJECTIVES

%he project has t-o main objecti,es:

+onduct cloud seeding using 3 aircra!t -ith e=perienced cre-s to suppress hail !or the purpose o!reducing damage to propert&B



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$perate a +5band -eather radar and collect -eather in!ormation b& s(illed pro!essionalmeteorologists and engineers !or purposes o! storm identi!ication accurate storm trac(ing optimaldirection o! aircra!t to conduct cloud seeding !or hail suppression purposes and the collection o! adata archi,e that ma& be used !or the scienti!ic assessment o! the programOs e!!ecti,eness#

Priorities

%able 1 lists the most recent census !igures obtained ,ia the internet !or the cities and to-ns -ithin theproject area# Priorit& is gi,en according to population -hich is related to the ris( o! propert& damage#%his list -as posted in the radar control room as a constant reminder to the meteorologists o! thepriorit& -hen allocating resources to storms on an& gi,en da %he biggest increase in populationrecentl& has occurred in +ochrane Airdrie S&l,an @a(e and $(oto(s# Project meteorologists madespecial note o! the !act that the combined population o! %urner Jalle& and Elac( iamond is almost aslarge as Elac(!alds or idsbur Storms that do not threaten a to-n or cit& are not li(el& to be seeded#

Also most storms are no longer seeded -hen the& cross High-a& 2 e=cept !or storms east o! Airdrieand +algar& that might threaten Strathmore#

#ab,e 1: !ensus +igures +or t"e tons and cities in t"e =roject area.

R POPULATION )""# 2)00 20036 I789:9

C;8?@?;> A89 !2)#2! "5)3"5 "53)000 #

2 C; H?:9 5)!00 #)20! #)20! &

4 D:8= 3)#00 3)"32 3)"32 "

5 B;7;: 3)042 3)!2 25

# T898 V;;9=/B;7 D? 3)4&4

& C8?::9; )"00 2)3!" 2)2!! 20

! S89 2)000 2)2#& 2)2#& 3

" C8:>8: )"00 2)254 2)254 "

20 P9?; )#25 )&2" )&2" #

2 B?9 )000 )&4 &

22 I887 !20 )03! )043 2&

23 E7;;9 "00 )0" 3

24 C8?;9 4&0 55# !

25 C89? 3!0 45 "

CONCEPTUAL HAIL MODEL



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%he hail suppression conceptual model is based on the e=perience o! W" in the SA +anadaArgentina and .reece# "t in,ol,es the use o! sil,er5iodide reagents to seed the de,eloping !eederclouds near the 510Q+ le,el in the upshear ne- gro-th propagationI region o! hailstorms# %he sil,er5iodide reagents initiate a condensation5!reeing process and produce enhanced concentrations o! icecr&stals that compete !or the a,ailable super5cooled liDuid -ater in a storm and help pre,ent thegro-th o! large damaging hail# %he seeding also initiates the precipitation process earlier in a cloud;cell< to speed up the gro-th o! cloud h&drometeors ,ia an ice5phase ;graupel< to rain mechanisminstead o! continuing to gro- to damaging hail#

0ai, Su==ression 0'=ot"esis

%he cloud seeding h&pothesis is based on the cloud microph&sical concept o! bene!icial competition#Eene!icial competition is based upon the documented de!icienc& o! natural ice nuclei in theen,ironment and that the injection o! sil,er iodide ;Ag"< -ill result in the production o! a signi!icantnumber o! arti!icial ice nuclei# %he natural and arti!icial ice cr&stals compete !or the a,ailable super5cooled liDuid cloud -ater -ithin the storm# Hence the hailstones that are !ormed -ithin the seededcloud ,olumes -ill be smaller and produce less damage i! the& should sur,i,e the !all to the sur!ace# "!su!!icient nuclei are introduced into the ne- gro-th region o! the storm then the hailstones -ill be smallenough to melt completel& be!ore reaching the ground# +loud seeding alters the microph&sics o! thetreated clouds assuming that the present precipitation process is ine!!icient due to a de!icienc& o!natural ice nuclei# %his de!icienc& o! natural ice has been documented in the ne- gro-th one o!

Alberta storms ;'rauss 1?1


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indicate di!!erent gro-th histories and trajectories and illustrate the comple=it& -ithin a single hailstorm#%he present seeding methodolog& attempts to compete -ith the graupel embr&o process# rop hailembr&os are thought to originate !rom secondar& sources ;shedding !rom large e=isting hail stones or,ia a recirculation process at the edge o! the main updra!t


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Figure 1: A t"ree@dimensiona, sc"ematic +igure o+ an A,berta "ai,storm> s"oing t"e c,oudseeding met"odo,og' it"in t"e ne grot" Bone.

As mentioned pre,iousl& cloud seeding cannot pre,ent or completel& eliminate the occurrence o!damaging hail# We presentl& do not ha,e the abilit& to predict -ith an& certaint& e=actl& the amountand sie o! hail that -ould occur i! cloud seeding did not ta(e place# %here!ore -e do not ha,e theabilit& to predict -ith certaint& the net e!!ect o! the seeding# $ur purpose is to seed the ne- gro-thone o! hailstorms and obser,e the amount and t&pe o! precipitation at the sur!ace as -ell as the radarre!lecti,it& characteristics o! the storm be!ore during and a!ter seeding# We e=pect that the success!ul

application o! the technolog& -ill &ield a decrease o! damaging hail b& appro=imatel& 60> o! theamount that -ould ha,e occurred i! seeding had not ta(en place# %his goal is consistent -ith theresults reported in /orth a(ota ;Smith et al 1??9< and in .reece ;Rudolph et al 1??4


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Alberta is appro=imatel& 2#6 = 1053sec51# %his shear ,alue corresponds to precipitation e!!icienc& near60>#

"t is logical that the production o! large damaging hail is a result o! the natural ine!!icienc& o! the stormto produce rain# %here!ore the introduction o! more precipitation embr&os earlier in a clouds li!etime ishighl& ad,antageous to the initiation o! precipitation earlier ma(ing the cloud more e!!icient as a rainproducer and in the process reducing the amount and sie o! the hail# "ncreasing the rain!all !rom ahailstorm b& 20> due to the seeding is a ,er& achie,able goal and means that less -ater is lost either,ia the entrainment o! dr& en,ironmental air through the sides and top o! the cloud or -ater lost to icecr&stals that are e=hausted out o! the an,il at the top o! the troposphere and -hich e,entuall&sublimate bac( to the ,apor phase at high altitudes#

Figure 1/: Preci=itation e++icienc' +or 0ig" P,ains conectie storms. &non su=erce,,"ai,storms are ,abe,ed S. Storms t"at =roduced rain on,' are ,abe,ed R (%roning> 1955).

CLARIFICATION OF CLOUD SEEDING GUIDELINES

%he !ollo-ing guidelines represent the current state o! the science o! hail suppression operations beingapplied b& Weather odi!ication "nc#

$nset o+ Seeding

"n order !or cloud seeding to be success!ul it is the goal o! the program to seed ;inject ice nucleatingagents< the de,eloping ne- gro-th cloud to-ers o! a hail producing storm at least 20 minutes be!ore

the damaging hail !alls o,er a to-n or cit& -ithin the target one# For the Alberta project the principletargets are the to-ns and cities -ithin the project area# Since 20 min is the minimum time reasonabl&e=pected !or the seeding material to nucleate and ha,e the seeded ice cr&stals gro- to su!!icient sieto compete !or the a,ailable super5cooled liDuid -ater in order to &ield positi,e results a 30 min leadtime is generall& thought to be ad,isable#

denti+ication o+ 0ai, Producing Storms

%he height o! the 46 dEK contour -as a criterion tested in the S-iss hail suppression program# %heS-iss research indicated that all hailstorms had 46 dEK contours that e=ceeded the N6Q+ temperaturele,el ;Wald,ogel Federer and .rimm 1?9? largel&



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because some strong rainstorms also met the criterion# Ho-e,er it is pre!erable to ma(e an error andassume that a hea,& rainstorm is going to produce hail than to mista(enl& belie,e that a hailstorm isonl& going to produce hea,& rain# Studies o! Alberta hailstorms also indicated that 60> o! all Albertahail storms had a ma=imum radar re!lecti,it& greater than 46 dEK higher than the 56Q+ le,el;Humphries *nglish and Renic( 1?9


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Figure 12: A ="oto o+ a c,oud seeding =,ane dro==ing ejectab,e +,ares during a c,oud seeding=enetration (="oto courtes' Jo"n C,an).

ig"t #ime Seeding

$ccasionall& -ith embedded cells or con,ecti,e comple=es at night there are no clearl& de!ined!eeder turrets ,isible to the !light cre-s or on radar# "n these instances a seeding aircra!t -ill penetratethe storm edge at an altitude bet-een 56Q+ and 510+ on the upshear side ;region o! tight radarre!lecti,it& gradient< and seed b& igniting an end5burner !lare and injecting droppable pencil !lares -henupdra!ts are encountered# "! ,isibilit& is good belo- cloud base night time seeding at base is alsoper!ormed# @ightning can o!ten help pro,ide illumination at the cloud base#

Sto==ing Seeding

Strictl& spea(ing i! the radar re!lecti,it& criteria are met seeding o! all cells is to be continued#Ho-e,er seeding is e!!ecti,e onl& -ithin cloud updra!ts and in the presence o! super5cooled cloud-ater i#e# the de,eloping and mature stages in the e,olution o! the classic thunderstorm conceptualmodel# %he dissipating stages o! a storm should be seeded onl& i! the ma=imum re!lecti,it& isparticularl& se,ere and there is e,idence ;,isual cloud gro-th or tight re!lecti,it& gradients< indicatingthe possible presence o! embedded updra!ts# Storm cells being trac(ed b& %"%A/ ma& not be seededi! there are no other indications o! updra!t or super5cooled liDuid -ater or i! the storm does not threatena to-n or cit

Seeding Rates

A seeding rate o! one 20 g !lare e,er& 6 sec is t&picall& used during cloud penetration# A higher rate isused ;e#g# 1 !lare e,er& 2 to 3 sec< i! updra!ts are ,er& strong ;e#g# greater than 2000 !tMmin< and thestorm is particularl& intense# A cloud seeding pass is repeated immediatel& i! there are ,isual signs o!ne- cloud gro-th or i! radar re!lecti,it& gradients remain tight ;indicati,e o! persistent updra!ts


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o! Ag" to reach the integral length scale ;200 m< in the inertial subrange sie scales o! mi=ing is 140seconds# %his is insu!!icient time !or ice particles to gro- to hail sie there!ore dropping !lares at 6sec ;assuming a true5airspeed o! 0 mMs< inter,als should pro,ide su!!icient nuclei and allo- adeDuatedispersion to e!!ecti,el& deplete the super5cooled liDuid -ater and pre,ent the gro-th o! hail particles#%he use o! the 20 gm !lares and a !reDuent drop rate pro,ides better seeding co,erage than usinglarger !lares -ith a greater timeMdistance spacing bet-een !lare drops# "n !act the abo,e calculationsare conser,ati,e -hen one considers that the center o! the ice cr&stal plume -ill ha,e a greaterconcentration o! ice cr&stals#

For cloud base seeding a seeding rate using t-o acetone generators or one end5burner !lare ist&picall& used dependent on the updra!t ,elocit& at the cloud base# For an updra!t 600 !tMmingenerators and consecuti,e !lares per seeding run are t&picall& used# +loud seeding runs are repeateduntil no !urther in!lo- is !ound# Acetone burners are used to pro,ide continuous sil,er iodide seeding i!e=tensi,e regions o! -ea( updra!t are !ound at cloud base and in the shel! cloud region# Ease seedingis not conducted i! do-ndra!ts onl& are encountered at cloud base since this -ould -aste seedingmaterial#

Seeding Materia,s

W" e=clusi,el& uses sil,er5iodide !ormulation !lares manu!actured b& "ce +r&stal *ngineering ;"+*< o!a,enport /# %he ejectable !lares contain 20 gm o! seeding material and burn !or appro=imatel& 39

sec and !all appro=imatel& 4000 !t# %he end5burning !lares ;E"P< contain 160 gm o! seeding materialand burn !or appro=imatel& 8 min#

Sil,er5iodide is dispensed using droppableMejectable ;sho-n in Figure 19< andMor end5burningp&rotechnics andMor acetone burners ;sho-n in Figure 1


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Figure 18: 0ai, Sto= > !; aircra+t s"on seeding it" Acetone So,ution burners and %urn@n@P,ace (%P) +,ares.

F,are


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1#00*T10

1#00*T11

1#00*T12

1#00*T13

1#00*T14

1#00*T16

0 6 10 16

SH@987??;A4< $JC%

YA9;B

$K res=ectie,'.

#ab,e : Rate Data (4W! G 1./ g m@ =oints are aerage a,ues)

P&ro

t&pe

%emp

;+ s"oing t"e !DD> ##A> andMeteoHAir,ink com=uters.

Figure 5: ##A dua,@dis=,a' s"oing t"e arious radar =ictures and sate,,ite ="oto aai,ab,eto t"e radar contro,,er on 1@Ju,'@;;.



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"n addition a ne- +on!igurable "nteracti,e ata ispla& ;+"< computer s&stem -as installed# %hene- +" s&stem -as routinel& set to displa& an animated 15hour mo,ie loop o! the higher resolutionpolar radar data super5imposed on a terrain map bac(ground# An e=ample o! the W"5/+AR +";+on!igurable "nteracti,e ata ispla&< s&stem used this &ear is sho-n in Figure 2#

Figure 8: WM@!AR !DD dis=,a' s"oing radar re+,ectiit' data> to=ogra="'> aircra+t tracksand t"e simu,taneous dis=,a' o+ sate,,ite and s'no=tic data.

RADAR

%he W" +5band -eather radar is located at the $lds5idsbur& Airport Hangar 74 ;ac(son hangar


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%he radar antenna -as raised !t 2 three ago in order to pro,ide more clearance abo,e nearb&buildings that ha,e been constructed o,er the last t-o &ears at the $lds5idsbur& Airport# %he baseele,ation radar scan -as set to 0# degrees ele,ation in order reduce the amount o! ground clutter &etstill pro,ide a good ,ie-ing angle o! the lo-5le,el precipitation at !ar ranges especiall& o,er +algar&and Red eer# %he ne- radar transmitter -as located inside the shed built directl& under the radarto-er ;sho-n in Figure 2?


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"! -e assume that all the terms relating to the electrical components and propagation o! the radar beamare constants and i! -e al-a&s assume -e are loo(ing at -ater a simpli!ied radar eDuation ta(es the!orm ;Rinehart 1??9


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Figure ;: Radar ca,ibration o+ RDAS digita, counts to e7uia,ent radar re+,ectiit' =oer (d%)+or t"e WM radar at $,ds@Didsbur' during t"e ;; +ie,d season.



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When a radar is modi!ied or repaired it is important to chec( andMor recalibrate the RAS computer-hich con,erts the ra- radar ,ideo signal into a digital ,alue ;i#e#B number o! RAS counts ;;.

Airlin( also displa&s -hen seeding e,ents ta(e place but not all o! the locations o! !lare drops andlocation o! the acetone generator usage are displa&ed on the trac( in Figure 31# "n addition Airlin(displa&s the a,ailable in5situ measurements that are also sent ,ia the telemetr& !or displa& to thecontroller# %his allo-ed the controller to monitor the temperature and concentration o! supercooledliDuid -ater encountered b& this seeding aircra!t during cloud penetrations#

SUMMARY OF SEEDING OPERATIONS

A brie! summar& o! each da& indicating the -eather and operational acti,ities is gi,en in Appendi= E#Further details regarding !light times and the amount o! seeding are gi,en in the Flights and$perations Summar& tables in the Appendices#

Aircra+t F,ig"ts and Amount $+ Seeding

A total o! 106 aircra!t !lights totaling 229#6 hrs too( place on 39 operational da&s# %here -as one da&-ith onl& test !lights# A total o! ?0 storms -ere seeded during 3 seeding !lights ;1?6#9 hrs< on 2? da&son -hich seeding too( place# %here -ere 1? patrol !lights ;2?#6 hrs< and 3 test !lights ;2#3 hrs


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%he distribution o! ta(e5o!! and landing times as a !unction o! time o! da& is sho-n in Figure 32# osto! the !lights -ere bet-een 2 pm and ? pm# %he 60> percentile !or ta(e5o!!s -as 4 pm and the 60>percentile !or landings -as just a!ter 8 pm# %he con,ecti,e storms in Alberta ha,e a strong diurnalc&cle associated -ith the period o! dail& ma=imum temperature# "n Alberta -hen the sun goes do-nthe temperature usuall& cools o!! su!!icientl& to pre,ent an&more deep con,ection# $ccasionall&ho-e,er a passing cold5!ront or upper5le,el disturbance is strong enough to (ic(5o!! e,eningcon,ection there!ore nocturnal storms cannot be ruled out but the& are rare# %his is in contrast to thestorms and e=periences o! W" in endoa Argentina -here hal! the storms occur a!ter sunset#

Figure : #"e +re7uenc' o+ occurrence and cumu,atie distributions o+ aircra+t take@o++ and,anding times +or a,, +,ig"ts as a +unction on time during ;;.

Seeding Amounts

%he amount o! Ag" dispensed on each da& o! operations in 2004 is sho-n in Figure 33# %here -ere 18da&s on -hich 10(g o! seeding material -as dispensed# "n comparison there -ere onl& 8 da&s last&ear on -hich 10 (g -as dispensed# %he !i,e largest seed da&s -ere: ul& 2nd;28# (g


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Figure : Amount o+ Ag dis=ensed =er o=erationa, da' in ;;.

COMPARISON OF 2004 WITH PREVIOUS YEARS

%able 8 lists the operational statistics !or the past nine &ears o! the Alberta Hail Suppression Project#%his summer -as ,er& bus& -ith respect to the number o! storm da&s# Also -hen storms !ormed the&tended to be large and se,ere reDuiring substantial !light time and seeding material#

A total o! 106 aircra!t !lights totaling 229#6 hrs too( place on 39 operational da&s# %here -as one da&-ith onl& test !lights# A total o! ?0 storms -ere seeded during 3 seeding !lights ;1?6#9 hrs< on 2? da&son -hich seeding too( place# %here -ere 1? patrol !lights ;2?#6 hrs< and 3 test !lights ;2#3 hrs


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#ab,e 2: $=erationa, Statistics For #"e Past 9 Eears.

J9 5>>? S9@>998 5>8< ""# ""&.P>8?; =: > @>8?; ? >9:> ;: ?;= ? :99 +on!idence "nter,al !or edian

?0> +on!idence "nter,al !or Sigma

?0> +on!idence "nter,al !or u

Anderson5arling /ormalit& %est

Descriptive Statistics

Figure 2: #"e +re7uenc' "istogram o+ !a,gar' W% "eig"t (+t A64) +or $@0A4.

00090008000600040003000


9600900086008000

?0> +on!idence "nter,al !or edian

Jariable: L+ Hail

8160#8

1002#9

8006#19

a=imum3rd Guartileedian1st Guartileinimum

/'urtosisS(e-nessJarianceSte,ean

P5Jalue:A5SDuared:

94??#82

122#43

90?3#?

4?6#0096?#6084?4#006?6#003364#00

19#38*50258#9*501186286?126#68864?#63

0#3900#398






Figure 5: #"e +re7uenc' "istogram o+ !a,gar' W% "eig"t (+t A64) +or an'@0A4.



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6009600860066004600


9900920089008200


Jariable: @arge Ha

820#?2

62#29

81?1#3

a=imum3rd Guartileedian1st Guartileinimum

/'urtosisS(e-nessJarianceSte,

ean

P5Jalue:A5SDuared:

9929#44

139#06

9462#19

4?6#009#008684#00819?#004890#00

1151#1??452#2*501132?9601163#16

822#00

0#6400#2?1






Figure 8: #"e +re7uenc' "istogram o+ !a,gar' W% "eig"t (+t A64) +or 4AR6) S>8?< 2003%

%he .eomatics *ngineering epartment at the ni,ersit& o! +algar& and the Sas(atoon +limateResearch Eranch ;+RE< o! the eteorological Ser,ice o! +anada ;S+< ha,e independentl& beenin,estigating using .PS ;.lobal Positioning S&stem< recei,ers to obtain ,erticall& integrated moistureor precipitable -ater ;PW


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integrated precipitable -ater measured at +*A3 ;$lds5idsbur&< during ul& 2003 is sho-n in Figure40#

GPS F:. EA3 RB?:?4B9

0

5

0

5

20

25

4(00

5(00

#(00

&(00

!(00

"(00

20(00

2(00

22(00

23(00

24(00

25(00

2#(00

2&(00

2&(24

T9

O$DD%

T899 H;;: GPS O;B: GPS S4B89 EA3

Figure 9: !om=arison beteen radiosonde and 6PS deried integrated =reci=itab,e atermeasured at !


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%he current A.A* research team includes:

1# Principal "n,estigator: P8?. S: S?9 Assoc# Pro!# .eomatics *ngineering ni,ersit& o!+algar& +algar& AE 5 ss(one)geomatics#ucalgarca

2# +o5"n,estigator: C8< S> S+M+RE Sas(atoon S' 5 +raig#Smith)ec#gc#ca3# +o5"n,estigator: D8. G9? S>8?


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morning and a!ternoon sur!ace transects o! pressure temperature and humidit& in search o! the dr&lineo,er the !oothills# Preliminar& transects carried out during A5.A*52003 re,ealed that the dr&line o,erthe !oothills can be a sharp discontinuit& across distances o! onl& a !e- 10s o! meters] %he dr&linestud& -ill be the subject o! @esle& Hills #Sc thesis at o!A and these and other results during A5.A* -ill be incorporated into the multi5scale conceptual model o! Alberta thunderstormsh&pothesied during the 1?0s#

Figure 1: Dr. 6eo++ Strong and 4es,e' 0i,, (Cni. A,berta) and t"e mobi,e meteoro,ogica,autostation used +or A6AM< to conduct morning and a+ternoon sur+ace transects o+ =ressure>

tem=erature and "umidit' in searc" o+ t"e dr',ine oer t"e +oot"i,,s during Ju,' ;;.

We are no- engaged in a second scaled5do-n A5.A*52004 !ield stud& -ith t-o sounding s&stems;$lds5idsbur& and Airdrie Airports


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%he research program ran primaril& !rom ul& 12 thto 18th 2004 plus W" released a !e- other sondesoutside the research time period speci!icall& !rom ul& 10 thto August 8th2004# %he program -as ,er&success!ul due to the ,ariet& o! -eather conditions that -ere obser,ed# A listing o! the soundings and(e& parameters !rom +*A3 ;$lds5idsbur& Airport< is gi,en in %able 18#

#ab,e 12: L:> ? :?% : @8> ? >9 A(GAME :>=.

o. Date #ime(C#!) P(mb) S+c #em=I

Sur+ace

De=oint (!) 6PSWinds

Preci=

Water(in)

4 @

4i+tednde3 ## @ #ota,#ota,s

1 105ul504 1 ?6# 19#9 11#6 L 0#4 1#3 4#8

2 105ul504 24 ?3#3 20#? 6#9 L 0#4 4#1 42#8

3 115ul504 1 ?3#1 16#1 #8 / 0#8 0#0 63#

4 125ul504 1 ?01#1 1#3 9#9 / 0#6 9#4 3#8

6 125ul504 24 telemetr& !ailure

8 135ul504 1 telemetr& !ailure

9 135ul504 23 ?#8 22#9 11# L 0#8 51#1 4?#2

145ul504 1 ?02#0 1?#9 11#9 L 0#8 3#0 44#

? 165ul504 1 ?02#6 21# 16#0 L 0# 51#3 62#0

10 165ul504 21 ?01#8 23#2 16#3 L 0# 51#? 62#8

11 185ul504 1 ??#9 22#9 19#0 L 0#9 50#3 4#0

12 185ul504 22 ??#2 28#? 1# / 0# 54#4 64#2

13 195ul504 1 ?9# 26#0 16#8 / 0#8 1#6 42#0

14 15ul504 18 ?#6 20#0 18#3 L 0# 0#0 4#8

16 15ul504 24 ?6#9 2# 16#9 / 0# 51#6 60#8

18 1?5ul504 1? ?8#1 20# 18# L 0#? 1#4 44#2

19 205ul504 1 ?3#1 1?#? 13#4 / 0#9 51#2 4?#2

1 205ul504 24 ?3#4 19#8 11#0 L 0#9 2#1 48#0

1? 215ul504 1 ?00# 19#2 ?#? / 0#8 2#8 49#8

20 225ul504 1 ?0#4 19# 10#9 / 0#9 4#4 44#4

21 235ul504 1 ?09#0 20#? 9#? L 0#8 2#0 48#0

22 245ul504 1 ?02#0 24#? 10#4 / 0#4 0# 48#0

23 265ul504 1 ?#2 26#2 11# / 0#6 2#9 43#824 285ul504 1 ?# 18#4 #? L 0#9 8#1 41#2

26 305ul504 1 ?3# 1#? 12#0 L 0#9 0#3 40#

28 35Aug504 1 ?8#8 1#3 14#8 / 0#9 0#8 4#1

29 35Aug504 23 ?6#? 24#6 18#3 L 0#? 52# 63#4

2 45Aug504 21 ?9#4 19# 14#1 L 0# 1#1 4#4

2? 65Aug504 20 ?4# 23#2 14# L 0#8 52#8 62#

30 85Aug504 1? ?9#0 18#8 11#1 L 0#6 0#? 43#4

EXPLICIT PREDICTION OF HAIL USING A TRIPLE(MOMENT BULKMICROPHYSICS SCHEME $Jason A. Milbrandtand M. K. Yau, McGill Univ.)

ntroduction

W" has been in,ol,ed -ith a research project conducted at c.ill ni,ersit& b& ason ilbrandt andr# Peter Lau in,ol,ing model simulations o! con,ecti,e storms# ason -or(ed as a meteorologist !oron the Alberta Hail Project in 1???52000# %his research has been !unded in part b& an "PS2 scholarship!rom /S*R+ o! -hich W" has been an industrial partner and !inancial contributor# %he research isalso !unded b& the +anadian Weather Research Program#

With increasing computer po-er e=plicit microph&sics schemes are pla&ing an increasingl& importantrole in atmospheric models# Eecause o! the prohibiti,e computational cost o! bin5resol,ing schemes



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the bul( method continues to be used !or parameteriing cloud microph&sics in /WP models# an&schemes use a 'essler5t&pe parameteriation in -hich one moment o! the h&drometeor siedistribution N proportional to the mass content ;G< N is predicted# ore recentl& the t-o5momentmethod has been used in -hich both the mass content and the total number concentration ;/%< o! theh&drometeor categories are independentl& predicted# %he sie spectrum o! each h&drometeor categor&is o!ten described b& a three5parameter gamma distribution !unction o! the !orm

D

xx

xx eDNDN

= 0)( -here /0=

= and

= are distrubtion parameters o! categor& =# %-o5moment schemes generall& treat

/0= and = as the prognostic ,ariables -hile holding the shape parameter = constant# "n this stud&the role o! the shape parameter in bul( schemes is in,estigated and its e!!ects on sedimentation andmicroph&sical gro-th rates are e=amined# +omparisons are made bet-een ,arious bul( approaches Na one5moment a t-o5moment and a three5moment scheme N and an anal&tic bin model# A method isproposed to e=tend the double5moment approach b& allo-ing the shape parameter to ,ar& as adiagnostic parameter# Results !rom 3 simulations o! the se,ere hailstorm on ul& 14th 2000 using,arious ,ersions o! a ne- bul( scheme including a triple5moment ,ersion are discussed#

Ana,'Bing #"e Ro,e $+ #"e S"a=e Parameter

The shape parameter affects the prediction of the various moments in two ways. First, affects the

redistribution of the predicted moments in the vertical due to hydrometeor sedimentation since the moment-weighted fall velocities used to compute sedimentation rates depend on all of the size distribution

parameters. Second, the microphysical growth rates also depend on the values of the distributionparameters. We examine the role of in the bulk method by comparing below the following approaches: a

single-moment scheme (SM), a double-moment scheme with a constant = 0 (FIX0), a double-moment

scheme with a constant = 3 (FIX3), a double-moment scheme with a diagnosed value of (DIAG), and a

triple-moment scheme (TM). In DIAG, is diagnosed as a monotonically increasing function of the mass-

weighted mean diameter, Dm, which is proportional to the ratio of the predicted moments, Q/NT. In TM, theradar reflectivity Z(the sixth moment of the particle distribution) is predicted in addition to Qand NT, thus

making a prognostic parameter. For details on the formulations in DIAG and TM, see Milbrandt and Yau

(2003). For the analysis in this section, the schemes are compared to an analytic (Lagrangian) bin model(ANA). The schemes are summarized in Table 17.

#ab,e 15: 4ist o+ s'mbo,s used to re+er to t"e bu,k sc"emes tested.

Symbol Predictedmoments

Treatment of

SM Q = 0

FIX0 Qand NT = 0

FIX3 Qand NT = 3

DIAG Qand NT = f (Dm)

TM Q, NT andZ

prognostic

ANA Analytic bin model

i!!erences bet-een the methods in the computation o! the !all ,elocities and gro-th rates are due to the

abilit& o! the schemes to represent the particle sie distribution# Fig# 42 sho-s an e=ample o! the siedistribution !rom the di!!erent schemes# Jalues o! &NTand Z are computed from the number of particles ineach size bin from the analytic model for the size spectrum of hail shown in Fig. 42. From these moments,

the appropriate distribution parameters (N0, , and ) are computed for each of the schemes and the size

distributions are plotted. With different treatments of , there are obvious differences in the abilities of the

various schemes to match the distribution of ANA. In this example, the FIX0 distribution (which is inverse-exponential) is clearly unable to capture the narrowness of the ANA distribution. The distribution of FIX3 issomewhat closer while those of DIAG and TM are much better. Note that the DIAG distribution is quite

similar to the TM distribution which implies that in this particular example, the value of diagnosed from Q

and NTby DIAG is similar to the value computed from Q, NT, and Zby TM.



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Figure : Re=resentations o+ a =artic,e siBe distribution b' arious bu,k sc"emes.

To investigate the role of in a bulk scheme and assess the importance of treating appropriately, we

examine independently in the following subsections the effects of on hydro-meteor sedimentation and on

the instantaneous growth rates.

Sedimentation

A 1D model is used to investigate pure sedimentation in bulk schemes. In the bulk method, the predictedmoments of the size distribution sediment at the appropriate moment-weighted bulk fall velocities. For thefollowing calculations, hail is used to avoid confusion regarding particle coalescence and breakup, but thesame conclusions apply to all sedimenting hydrometeor categories. An initial population of hail particles isdefined by specifying the hail mass content Qh to vary sinusoidally between heights (z) of 8 and 10 km

above ground with a maximum value of 5 g m -3at z= 9 km. Values of N0h= 4 104m-4and h= 0 are used

to compute the initial values of NTh and Zh at each level. A constant updraft of 10 m s-1 is imposedthroughout the column. Fig. 43 shows profiles of Qh, NTh, Zeh(the equivalent radar reflectivity of hail) and Dmhafter 40 min. These profiles can be interpreted as the results of pure sedimentation of particles starting nearthe top of a deep convective system with the cloud base and top at 0 and 12 km respectively. For all

parameters, the predicted profiles of TM are the closest to those of the analytic model. The profiles of DIAGare all closer than those of FIX3.

Figure : ertica, =ro+i,es o+ *"> #"> e"> and Dm" a+ter ; min ca,cu,ated b' t"e indicatedbu,k sc"emes and t"e ana,'tic bin mode, (AA).



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Based on the results of these and other experiments, we conclude that the shape parameter does indeedplay a significant role in affecting the prediction of the various moments by sedimentation. For a double-

moment scheme, introducing a diagnostic relation for based on the mean particle size represents a distinct

improvement over holding constant at even the optimal value (which we deemed to be 3 based on our

calculations of sedimentation). Including a prognostic equation for (the triple-moment method) yields the

best results.

Micro="'sica, SourceHSink #erms

For the microphysical processes, collection, diffusional growth/decay, and melting have the greatest impacton the prediction of the moments of the hydrometeor size spectra. It can be readily shown that the massgrowth rates of a given particle type are proportional to certain moments of its size spectrum. For example,for a frozen hydrometeor category xgrowing by continuous collection of cloud water, the accretion rate isproportional to Mx(2 + bx), the 2+bxthmoment of Nx(D), where bxis the fall velocity parameter in the relation

xb

xx DaDV =)( . Thus for hail (x = h) with bh= 0.6, the continuous accretion rate is pro-portional to

Mh(2.6). [For stochastic collection, the mass growth rate is directly proportional to Mx(2+bx) as well as to

Mx(1+bx) and Mx(bx).] Examining the role of in determining the instantaneous growth rates is therefore

equivalent to examining the sensitivity of specific moments (those on which the growth rates depend) on the

value of .

Figure : ertica, =ro+i,e o+ t"e ratios o+ M(.2) com=uted b' arious bu,k sc"emes to M(.2)+rom t"e ana,'tic mode, a+ter 8 min o+ sedimentation t"roug" a constant u=dra+t o+ 1; m s@1.

Figure 44 depicts the ratio M(2.6)bulk/M(2.6)ana. M(2.6)anais computed from the analytic bin model after 8 min

of sedimentation. The moments M(2.6)bulkfor the various bulk schemes are computed from N0, , and

determined from the values of Q, NT, and Zin the analytic bin model at this time. As indicated in the figure,all schemes underestimate the growth rate (except for TM above 11 km and SM below that level). FIX0underestimates the rate by 20% for most of the column and FIX3 by nearly 10%. There is considerableimprovement for DIAG for a deep part of the column (below ~9 km) and TM is within a few percent of theanalytic growth rate everywhere. Similar under/over-predictions exist for other moments important to growthrates. We conclude, therefore, that the shape parameter also plays a significant role in affecting theinstantaneous microphysical growth rates.

0ai, Prediction Csing A #ri=,e@Moment Sc"eme

A new bulk microphysics scheme has been developed and implemented into the fully compressible,nonhydrostatic Canadian MC2 mesoscale model (Benoit et al., 1997). The scheme consists of sixhydrometeor categories: cloud, rain, ice, snow, graupel and hail. Various versions of the scheme have been



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implemented. The fully double-moment (for all categories) version combines the warm-rain scheme ofCohard and Pinty (2000a) with aspects of the ice-phase schemes of Ferrier (1994), Meyers et al. (1997),and others. A single-moment version of the scheme was also implemented for comparison. The double-

moment version includes separate diagnostic relations for x of all sedimenting categories (rain and all

frozen categories). The triple-moment version includes predictive equations for Zx for these five hydro-meteor categories. (See Milbrandt and Yau, 2003 for a full description of the scheme).

Figure /: 0oriBonta, cross@section (5;; mb) +rom t"e #M simu,ation s"oing tota, e7uia,entradar re+,ectiit' (s"ading intera, / d%)K "ai, mass content (,ig"t contours> intea, is 1 g m@)K

rain mass content (dark contours> intera, is 1 g m@).

Using only synoptic data (with no nudging or thermal perturbations), the model has been used to conducthigh-resolution (1-km) simulations of a high-precipitation supercell storm which produced large hail (14 July2000 in Alberta, Canada). The control run, using the triple-moment scheme, does remarkably well inreproducing a realistic, long-lived supercell, conforming closely to radar observations. The simulated stormhad similar propagation speed, accumulated precipitation amounts, radar reflectivity values, and stormstructures (including a hook echo and mesocyclone) as those observed. Fig. 45 shows a 700 mb CAPPI(at approximately 2 km AGL) of the total Ze along with hail and rain mass concentrations from the TM

simulation. Radar observations at this time (not shown) also indicate the presence of a hook echo and amesocyclone. The simulation is hence deemed sufficiently realistic to allow investigation of the effects ofusing the various versions of the microphysics scheme.

Sensitivity experiments on the predicted precipitation using the various versions of the scheme wereconducted. The simulation using the SM scheme considerably overpredicted (compared with the TM run)the surface hail (solid), as well as the total (liquid + solid), precipitation rates. The total precipitation rates ofall the double-moment runs were similar to those of the TM run but with different biases in the phase of thesurface precipitation. The FIX0 run was biased towards higher solid and lower liquid precipitation comparedto the TM run. The solid and liquid precipitation rates in the FIX3 run were closer to those of the TM runthan those of the FIX0 run, but the closest double-moment run to the TM run was the DIAG run. The

treatment of in the double-moment scheme therefore significantly affects the type of simulated



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precipitation at the ground (as well as other aspects such as radar reflectivity and particle sizesdistributions).

The shape parameter in a bulk scheme using a three-parameter gamma distribution function was shown toplay an important role in the prediction of hydrometeor sedimentation and on microphysical growth rates.Based on these results, we conclude that introducing a diagnostic relation for the shape parameter as amonotonically increasing function of the mean-mass diameter represents an important improvement in thedouble-moment method. However, a triple-moment scheme results in the best representation of particlesize distributions and the best prediction of sedimentation and growth rates.

JULY 5>) 2004* THE CALGARY STORM

%he most damaging storm !or the cit& o! +algar& during the 2004 season occurred on the a!ternoon o!ul& 16th 2004# "n se,eral -a&s this -as a t&pical se,ere meteorological situation !or Alberta so theimportant !eatures o! this da& are presented here# As -ell the operations on this da& e=empli!& theman& decisions that are reDuired on an& gi,en da& regarding the timing and allocation o! aircra!t andseeding material#

Meteoro,ogica, Situation

%he *%A model anal&sis !or the 260 mb le,el at 00K 18 ul& 2004 is sho-n in Figure 48# %he

corresponding 600 mb ,orticit& !ield is sho-n in Figure 49 and the sur!ace map at 00K is sho-n inFigure 4# %he upper ridge o,er Alberta ampli!ied to the north throughout the da %he upper le,ello- -as positioned o,er the .ul! o! Alas(a# A -ea( ,orticit& center passed o,er +algar& in thea!ternoon but the signi!icant et Streams -ere to the -est and south# A sur!ace high o,er S' and anapproaching cold !ront in E+ created strong southeast -inds throughout the da& increasing the lo-5le,el moisture o,er the project area# +algar& reached 28#2+ and Red eer reached 24+# e- points-ere in the 13 + to 14+ range# %he atmospheric d&namics -ere relati,el& -ea( but thethermod&namics -ere strong#



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Figure 2:


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Figure 8: Sur+ace ana,'sis at ;; 12 Ju,' ;;.

%he *%A 12 hr !orecast atmospheric sounding !or +algar& at 8 pm ;00%+< is sho-n in Figure 4?# %headjusted ma=imum temperature and sur!ace de- point -ere input into the sounding and thecorresponding con,ecti,e atmospheric potential energ& ;+AP*< -as an impressi,e 1988 M(g using atemperature o! 28+ and de- point 13+ and mi=ing the lo-est 60 mb in the absence o! a strong !ront#%he conditions -ere su!!icient !or super5cell storms to de,elop according to the RA$E program# %heo!!icial !orecast at noon -as ++ V T3#



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Figure 9:


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Figure /;: Atmos="eric =ro+i,e +rom $,ds@Didsbur' at 1> 1/ Ju,' ;;> oer,aid it" t"e!a,gar'


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Figure /: Sur+ace moisture@+,u3 diergence and ind gust ma= at ( =m) on Ju,' 1/t">;;.

Storm Actiit'

%he largest storm o! the da& de,eloped near @imestone ountain at 113K ;1213 pm %< and

trac(ed south-ard along the !oothills# As the cell mo,ed to the southeast it intensi!ied ,ia discretepropagation on the south side but sta&ed in the bu!!er area# As the storm passed -est o! +aroline itsplit into multiple cells -ith the center cell being the strongest -ith heights o! 16#6 (m tops# Stormchasers .eo!! Strong and *d Jer(ai( both reported rotation at the cloud base -hen the storm -as /Wo! +ochrane around 0030K# *n,ironment +anada issued a Se,ere Weather Warning and %ornadoWatch# Shortl& a!ter a cell on the right5!ront !lan( started to trac( to the south-est into the Eo- Jalle&corridor# HS1 seeded this cell brie!l& and then stopped because the storm motion -as a-a& !rom+algar %he largest hail ;8 to 9 cm diameter< !ell !rom the cell that HS1 onl& brie!l& seeded and thenle!t it alone# A!ter a couple o! scans o! the radar the main storm cell on the le!t5!ront !lan( started totrac( to the southeast to-ards +algar %he storm passed just to the south o! Spring Ean( and thenpassed across the southern hal! o! +algar& -ith HS1 and HS2 and later HS3 all seeding this cell o,er+algar

%he satellite -ater ,apor image at 2300K on ul& 16th 2004 is sho-n in Figure 63# %he ,isible satelliteimage at 2310K on ul& 16th 2004 is sho-n in Figure 64# $ne can see the large storm cell o,er+algar& and a line o! storms along the gradient o! high %heta* air e=tending to-ards the north throughcentral Alberta# %here -asnt an upper dr&5slot or jet strea( to trigger the acti,it& on this da



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Figure /: Sate,,ite ater a=or image at on Ju,' 1/t"> ;;.

Figure /: isib,e sate,,ite image at 1; on Ju,' 1/t"> ;;.



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Storm #racks

%he ma=imum re!lecti,it& map !or ul& 16 th 2004 is sho-n in Figure 66# %he ma=imum Jertical"ntegrated @iDuid ;J"@< map is sho-n in Figure 68 and a ne- product implemented this &ear on %"%A/called a=imum 'inetic *nerg& Flu= is sho-n in Figure 69#

%he '* !lu= is based on the -or( o! Ji(tor a(ito, in Russia and is described b& Foote et al ;2006


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Figure /2: Ma3imum ertica,@integrated ,i7uid (4) ma= +or Ju,' 1/t"> ;;.

Figure /5: Ma3imum &inetic


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Seeding $=erations

Hailstop 3 ;HS3< -as launched at 1?42K to +aroline to patrol ,igorous de,elopment near @imestoneountain# HS3 -as airborne at 2000K and started seeding Storm 71 at 2119K -est o! Sundre# HS3stopped seeding at 2139K and patrolled -est o! Sundre# HS3 started seeding again at 2142K -est o!Sundre and continued seeding until 2249K and then returned to Red eer to re!uel and re!lare#

Hailstop 1 ;HS1< -as launched at 202?K to -est o! Sundre# HS1 -as airborne at 2036K and started

seeding storm 71 at 2100K -est o! Sundre# HS1 stopped seeding and returned to base at 2103K todrop o!! Scott the cameraman -ho -as onboard to collect ,ideo as part o! an upcoming +E+documentar& on e=treme -eather# %he e=treme turbulence and con,ection -as too much to continue-ith the !ilming but some ,er& good ,ideo -as obtained !rom the !e- penetrations that -ere made#

Hailstop 2 ;HS2< -as launched at 2223K to patrol north-est o! +ochrane# HS2 -as airborne at 223?Kand started seeding storm 71 at cloud base -est o! +remona at 2263K# HS2 stopped seeding andreturned to base at 0140K# HS1 -as relaunched at 2346K to storm 71 SW o! +remona# HS1 -asairborne at 0000K# HS1 started seeding at 000K north o! +ochrane# HS1 stopped seeding at 0022Kand patrolled in the clear o,er +ochrane because the storm -as sta&ing primaril& in the !oothills and-as in the process o! splitting into t-o separate cores# HS1 resumed seeding at 0048K north-est o!+ochrane -hen one cell separated !rom the main storm and began trac(ing to-ards +algar Aseries o! radar images during the critical time period ;0039K to 0332K< as the storm mo,ed out o! the!oothills and trac(ed across south +algar& is sho-n in Figure 6# %he cell top -as at 13#6 (m o,er+algar& ;de!ined b& the height o! the 36 dEK contour ;; (;;5 to;) "en storm moed out o+ t"e +oot"i,,s and tracked across sout" !a,gar' (gra="ic

=roided b' Jim Renick). #"e seeding tracks o+ 0S1 (green)> 0S ('e,,o)> and 0S (b,ue) ares"on. #"e ce,, to= "eig"ts (km) are a,so indicated.

HS1 descended to cloud base at 0140K and resumed seeding at 0146K at cloud base in order to targetthe cell that -as heading to-ard +algar At this time the conditions -ere ,er& mess& at cloud top andthe ne- gro-th one ;!eeder clouds< o! the +algar& cell -ere being obscured b& a second cell that -as



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sta&ing in the !oothills# At 023?K HS1 ascended to cloud top to resume seeding at cloud top as thene- gro-th one -as no- accessible again# HS1 stopped seeding and returned to base at 0313K asthe storm had !inall& cleared +algar& to the east# HS3 -as launched at 0114K to storm 71 W o!+ochrane# HS3 -as airborne at 0133K and made a beeline to Airdre# HS3 started seeding storm 71 at0160K o,er north-est +algar HS3 stopped seeding at 0319K and patrolled in the clear south-est o!+algar HS3 headed bac( to-ards Red eer and patrolled around the $ldsMidsbur& radar be!orereturning to base at 040K#

A total o! 13 hr 38 min o! !light time -ere !lo-n on ul& 16th 2004# %he total seeding consisted o! 24ejectable !lares 94 burn5in5place !lares and 3#4 hrs o! acetone burner# A map sho-ing the completeaircra!t trac(s on ul& 16th 2004 is sho-n in Figure 6?#

Figure /9: Aircra+t tracks on Ju,' 1/t";;.

%he +algar& storm -as seeded e=tensi,el& b& one aircra!t at cloud5top and a second aircra!t at cloud5

base !or the !ull duration o! its trac( across the southern hal! o! +algar Although signi!icant damageoccurred in south-est +algar& the radar data strongl& suggests that the seeding helped reduce boththe ma=imum sie and aerial e=tent o! the large hail considering the intensit& and sie o! the storm#Hail up to 6 cm diameter -as reported !rom a portion o! the storm that -as le!t unseeded -hen thestorm split -est o! +ochrane near the .host @a(e reser,oir# %he copious amounts o! pea sie hailreported across south +algar& is consistent -ith the bene!icial competitionI objecti,e o! the seeding-hich is to ma(e man& more small hail stones to compete !or the storms liDuid -ater thereb& limitingthe gro-th o! large damaging hail stones# "t is Duite possible that the seeding on this single da&produced sa,ings to the insurance industr& su!!icient to pa& !or the cloud seeding project man& timeso,er#



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AUGUST 24>) 2004* THE LANGDON STORM

%he most se,ere damage -ithin the project area occurred on August 24th 2004 -hen a se,erehailstorm dropped gol! ball sie hail o,er the small to-n o! @angdon east o! +algar

Meteoro,ogica, Situation

An upper le,el lo- positioned o,er northern Alberta on August 24th 2004# %he representati,e 260 mb

map is sho-n in Figure 80 and the representati,e 600 mb map is sho-n in Figure 81# %he project -asunder onal !lo- at the base o! the main trough -ith embedded short -a,es and a small jet strea( and,orticit& center near +algar %he main jet -as SW o! Alberta and conditions -ere Duite cool# A -ea(sur!ace lo- !ormed in the lee o! the Roc(ies in the a!ternoon -hich put the project into upslope !lo-#

Figure 2;: ;;.

Figure 21: ;;.



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What -as unusual about this da& is that conditions -ere ,er& cool# +algar& reported a high o! onl&19#9 +# Red eer reported a high o! onl& 12#2 +# %he representati,e atmospheric sounding !or 8 pmon August 24th20

Documents

Wmi Alhap Final Report 2004