Project evaluation Y1 Q1: October-December 2011

This evaluation considers the available evidence to measure current progress

against the seven stage one objectives of Open Briefing.

Objective 1: Establish the think tank and associated online

presence

Objective 1 has been achieved.

Open Briefing was registered with Companies House as a non-profit company

limited by guarantee on 27 May 2011. Following a period of project development

and fundraising, Open Briefing was publicly launched on 10 October with the

unveiling of our website at www.openbriefing.org. Social networks were also

established on Facebook, Twitter, YouTube and LinkedIn, and a weekly e-bulletin

and mobile and web apps were launched shortly afterwards. A podcast was then

launched in November.

To summarise, Open Briefing currently has the following online presence:

• Website

• e-Bulletin

• RSS feeds

• Podcast

• Social networks

� Facebook

� Twitter

� YouTube

� LinkedIn

� Issuu

� Scribd

• Mobile app

• Web apps

In addition, many of the intelligence desks also maintain separate RSS feeds and lists

on Twitter and YouTube, which focus on their particular area of concern.

Objective 2: Collect, assess and distribute at least 90 open

source intelligence items

On target to achieve and surpass the goal set in objective 2.

Open Briefing has already analysed, filed and distributed 52 open source

intelligence items in the ten weeks since launching. These items have been widely

disseminated through our website, RSS feed, podcast and weekly e-bulletin and our

Facebook, Twitter and LinkedIn networks. Our users have also further disseminated

them through their own networks using the sharing tools built in to our website.

Additional material has been solely disseminated through our Twitter and YouTube

networks.

Objective 3: Publish at least 15 analyses, 3 dossiers and 2

briefings

On target to achieve the goal set in objective 3.

Open Briefing has published four analyses, one dossier and one briefing to date.

Analyses have been published on the dubious nature of US allegations of an Iranian

plot to assassinate the Saudi Ambassador in Washington, the wider context of the

capture and death of Muammar Gaddifi, an objective reading of the most recent

IAEA report on Iran’s nuclear activities, and the possible effects of the Arab League

sanctions against Syria; a dossier was published on the announcement by the Basque

separatist group Eta of a definitive cessation of armed activity; and a media briefing

was published on avoiding the mistakes of Oslo and Utøya in future media reporting

of suspected terrorist attacks.

The media briefing, As the dust settles, has been particularly well received, with, for

example, the Norwegian journalist and television producer Magnus Nome remarking

that “With its rational, thorough and transparent approach, Open Briefing has the

potential to become an important corrective to often speculative media coverage.”

The briefing was also highlighted and quoted from in live reporting by The Guardian

of the December 2011 grenade attacks in Liège, Belgium.

Objective 4: Sign up at least 300 subscribers to the

organisation's weekly e-bulletin and social networks

On target to achieve and surpass the goal set in objective 4.

Despite only launching ten weeks ago, Open Briefing already has 138 known

subscriptions to our social networks and e-bulletin and other outputs (together with

a further 81 known installs of our mobile and web apps).

With support from a recent Network for Social Change fast-track funding grant, our

Open Outreach project aims to greatly expand our network of subscribers,

supporters and users, as this is where our ability to influence policy will come from.

Objective 5: Attract at least 500 visitors a month from

around the world to the organisation's website

On target to achieve and surpass the goal set in objective 5.

In the first month after the launch there were 772 unique visitors to the Open

Briefing website (generating 1,212 visits and 4,222 page views). This dropped in the

second month to 425 unique visitors (generating 662 visits and 2,016 page views),

but has increased again in this third month. On average, visitors are currently

viewing three pages per visit and staying on the site for over five minutes each time.

Visits have come from all over the world, though a majority come from Europe and

North America (predominantly the United Kingdom and United States).

These are excellent results for a new and unknown organisation relying solely on

word of mouth to engage new users and supporters.

Objective 6: Carry out a thorough evaluation of the

organisation's effectiveness and value

On target to achieve the goal set in objective 6.

Our progress in achieving our aim and objectives is being constantly monitored

against qualitative and quantitative data from various independent sources. This will

be summarised in quarterly reports such as this one. At the end of stage one a

formal evaluation of the project will be carried out.

Objective 7: Secure longer-term funding for stage two of

the project

Work has not started on achieving objective 7.

The first necessity is to secure the full funding needed for stage one of the project.

The required set up costs and operating costs for stage one are budgeted at

£39,385. Of that, Open Briefing has successfully raised £29,265 from the Marmot

Charitable Trust, the Network for Social Change, the Polden-Puckham Charitable

Foundation and individual donations, leaving £10,120 still to raise.

If successful, a pending application with the Network for Social Change peace pool

for £12,000 would cover the remainder of the stage one budget and enable us to

bring in some freelance capacity when needed, as well as pursue new initiatives that

would increase our influence. This would then allow fundraising efforts to be

focussed on stage two of the project.

In addition, Open Briefing has received individual donations from members of the

public totalling £195 (our target for the year is £500).

Other developments

Other developments include:

• We have launched new and improved versions of our mobile and web apps,

with a complete redesign and added features.

• We have rationalised the think tank element of the project and developed

and clarified our activities and outputs (see revised business plan).

• We have already received several applications for the associate analyst and

intern roles, despite these voluntary posts not yet being openly advertised.

• We have launched two special projects: The psychology of security, and

Achieving sustainable security.

Media coverage of Open Briefing’s work has included:

• The Guardian, 13 December 2011

• The Friend, 17 November 2011

• The Cornishman, 13 October 2011 and 10 November 2011

• Ekklesia, 11 October 2011

Future developments

Key initiatives for the first half of 2012 include:

• Increasing the number of items filed by the intelligence desks and including

more Open Briefing analysis with those items.

• Developing v2.0 of the RC(C) Evaluation System, with a simpler but more

thorough percentage likelihood rating.

• Developing the special projects, beginning with a briefing paper on the

social and cognitive biases that affect international security policymaking.

• Launching Café Sécurité, a university society network of weekly discussion

groups for students of international relations and related subjects.

• Recruiting a dozen associate analysts to provide material for the intelligence

desks and two interns to assist with the special projects and maintaining our

social networks.

• Registering as a charity with the Charity Commission.

Conclusion

The successes we have already achieved and the obvious and surprisingly

widespread interest Open Briefing is generating have set us on course to achieve

and likely surpass all the planned objectives. It is worth highlighting that this

progress has been achieved in only ten weeks and with only one part-time staff

member.

The organisation has been launched successfully and it is now time to concentrate

on our core research and advocacy work. Future progress is needed on two key

fronts: expanding our networks of outreach and influence, and building our

fundraising base to enable the required extra capacity and secure longer-term

funding.

Chris Abbott, Executive Director

15 December 2011