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Your online quizzes

• http://greenresistance.wordpress.com/evsc-239/

• Follow instructions for online quizzes

• You must do the quiz for each chapter after we complete the chapter. The quiz is due the day after the chapter is completed.

• You are responsible for making sure I get a copy of your results.

• You are free to take the quiz several times until you get a 100%

Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved.

http://greenresistance.wordpress.com/evsc-239/

http://greenresistance.wordpress.com/evsc-239/

Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved.

Chapter 1

Visions ofthe Future

Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 1-3

Introduction

• The Self-Extinction Premise Some Historic Examples

• Mayan civilization

• Easter Island


Mayan Civilization

• Population growth bumped into environmental constraints in the 5th century.

• In the early 6th century, the carrying capacity of the most productive local lands was exceeded.

• Mid 8th century, population reached its historic apex: Widespread deforestation, erosion High infant and adolescent mortality and malnutrition

• A.D. 820-822, the Roy dynasty collapsed abruptly.


Future Environmental Challenges

• Climate Change affecting human health, ecosystem, moral

dimension and requiring international coordination 2.3 billion tons of carbon dioxide added to the

atmosphere in the last 200 years. Half of this increase occurred in the last 30 years

Impact on earth temperature: expected rise between 1.4 degrees C and 5.8 degrees C by 2100

Negative effects?


Future Environmental Challenges

• Water Accessibility Increasing water stress from both supply and

sanitation

• Meeting the Challenges Economic activities and environmental problems International cooperation


How Will Societies Respond?

• Positive feedback loops self-reinforcing, for example, methane and global

warming

• Negative feedback loops self-limiting, for example, increase of output

aggravates pollution level which causes the rise of death rates and limits population growth)


The Role of Economics

• The Use of Models Models are simplified characterization of reality.

Models should be used with some caution.

• system dynamics — a large-scale computer model, is used to simulate future outcomes.


The Road Ahead

• The Issues Is the problem correctly conceptualized as

exponential growth with fixed, immutable resource limits? Does the earth have a finite carrying capacity? Do current levels of economic activity exceed the carrying capacity?

How does the economic system respond to scarcities? Is the process mainly characterized by positive or negative feedback loops?


The Road Ahead

• The Issues (contd.) What is the role of the political system in controlling

these problems? In what circumstances is government intervention necessary?

Can our economic and political institutions respond to the uncertainty in reasonable ways or does uncertainty become a paralyzing force?

Can the economic and political systems work together to eradicate poverty and social injustice while respecting our obligations to future generations?


Pessimistic view

• Society will run out of nonrenewable resources within 100 years or less with no major change in the physical, economic or social relationships, and it will cause a collapse of the economic system.

• Piecemeal approaches to solving individual problems will not work.

• Only by an immediate limit on population and pollution and a cessation of economic growth can the overshoot and collapse be avoided.


Optimistic View

• The standards of living have been rising with population for as long as records have been kept and as such there is no reason to believe the trends will not continue.

Your assignment: Due Monday by 8 am

• Online quiz for Chapter 1

• Answer this question via email: “Positive and negative feedback loops lie at the

core of systematic thinking about the future. As you examine the key forces shaping the future, what examples of positive and negative feedback loops can you uncover?”

Answer in an attachment No blank email in the body in the email.


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