ZIMBABWE

What impact is Mugabe having on it’s development?

This presentation looks at •Robert Mugabe’s rule in Zimbabwe•Social/Economic and political status of Zimbabwe•Prospects for improved development

ROBERT MUGABE

White-only rule in Zimbabwe ended in 1980 when Robert Mugabe of the Zimbabwe African National Union (now ZANU-PF) became the country’s leader. Mr Mugabe and his party have ruled Zimbabwe ever since.

Mugabe has promised to rule until he is 100. In February 2009, Opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai joined the new, Inclusive Government of Zimbabwe. The coalition has been a fragile one, with Mugabe keen to retain his supporters in important positions.

Zimbabwe is a fascinating, and disturbing, example of development. Zimbabwe, which used to be known as the “bread basket of Africa” has the lowest life expectancy in the world.

The average Zimbabwean can only expect to live to 43 years of age.

OPERATION MURAMBATSVINA

In 2005, the Zimbabwean police attacked and destroyed the homes of squatters in the Porta Farm area in Harare. The initiative, named Operation Murambatsvina (Drive Out Rubbish) was condemned by the United Nations. Mugabe, who claims to be a Marxist, claims the operation was designed to crack down on black-market trading and other criminal activity in slum areas.

However, the UN report said that the programme had been carried out in "an indiscriminate and unjustified manner, with indifference to human suffering". Hundreds of thousands of homes in the country's shanty towns were torched and bulldozed.

Murambatsvina

COLONIALISM

Zimbabwe used to be known as Rhodesia, after the (in)famous, depending on your point of view, "explorer" Cecil Rhodes.

In 1979, Rhodesia, which borders with South Africa, had a revolution which overthrew Prime Minister Ian Smith (left) and placed Robert Mugabe in power.

Colonialism left behind a land tenure structure which left most of the best land in the hands of large, commercial farms. Poor, black, families were concentrated in the least fertile land, mostly on tiny land holdings.

Black Zimbabweans worked on the land, but had no property rights and, crucially, few skills in managing the complex business of agriculture.

Colonialism also left behind an economy which was dependent on cash crops. In Zimbabwe’s case; maize and tobacco. If anything happens to these two crops, the Zimbabwean economy will always be in real trouble. It has and it is.

POOR GOVERNANCE: CURRENCY COLLAPSE

Between 2005 and 2008, Zimbabwe suffered economic meltdown, characterised by shortages of foreign currency, electricity, fuel, food, medicine and basic commodities.

In August 2006, Zimbabwe scrapped the old currency and brought in a new one. Most people stashed bags of money at home as the prices of goods and services climbed almost every few days. Others, people who live around shopping centres went on shopping sprees, with some spending as much as $300 million on an assortment of goods.

In 2009, the Inclusive Government introduced the US dollar as the nation’s currency.

Gold For Bread

POOR GOVERNANCE: GENERAL ELECTION 2005

Mr Mugabe's party, ZANU-PF, romped to victory in the 2005 parliamentary election, capturing 78 of the 120 seats that were contested. The campaign was less violent than previous parliamentary and presidential ones in 2000 and 2002.

This was because the poll was so expertly rigged that there was no need to kill people. An old and inaccurate voters' roll was kept under wraps. Perhaps 2m names out of 5.7 million were of voters who were either dead, fictitious or no longer living at the address listed. Expatriate Zimbabweans on the state payroll were allowed to vote, but those who had emigrated to escape poverty or the attentions of Mr Mugabe's youth militia—a number estimated at perhaps half the adult population—were disfranchised.

POOR GOVERNANCE: PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION 2008

Mugabe was re-elected President in a controversial one-man race.

The opposition party, the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), pulled out of the run-off election, saying its supporters were being attacked and killed.

Morgan Tsvangirai, MDC leader, said he did not want to be part of an illegitimate process. Mugabe was reported as saying that as "only God" can remove him, what was the point of Tsvangirai going through the motions?

Mugabe declares himself President

POOR GOVERNANCE: LAND REFORM

In November 2001 Mugabe’s Government embarked on a "fast track" policy of land redistribution. In effect, this meant the farms of white farmers were violently taken by friends and supporters of Mugabe’s ruling political party. The country was thrown into complete chaos.

These farms which used to be the country’s main foreign exchange earner now lie empty or are used as second homes by Mugabe’s political supporters. Mugabe and his wife Grace have occupied 12 of the most productive farms.

White farms 2009

ISOLATION

Mugabe’s Zimbabwe was the first elected government to be excluded from the Commonwealth for contravening the democratic principles agreed at the 1991 Harare conference.

In 2004, Zimbabwe formally resigned from the Commonwealth.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) will not provide Zimbabwe with financial aid until the Government pays it’s $1.3 billion arrears to the World Bank.

THE INCLUSIVE GOVERNMENT

The Inclusive Government was formed in February 2009. Robert Mugabe remained President with Morgan Tsvangerai installed as Prime Minister.

It inherited a fairly grim social economic landscape.

Zimbabwe UK

Unemployment Rate 94% 6%

GDP per head £132 £20,048

Average life expectancy: 43 years 79 years

Infant deaths per 1,000 births 85 6

Doctors per head of population: 0.2 2.3

Adults HIV/AIDS rate 20.1% 0.2

SOME PROGRESS

• Inflation, measured at 500 trillion% in 2008, has been cut to under 5%.

• Schools and hospitals are now operating more or less normally.

• Once-empty shops are now stuffed with imported goods.

• The economy, which shrank by more than half between 2000 and 2009, has been expanding.

• It is expected to grow by 9% this year

But most of the goods in the shops are unaffordable to most Zimbabweans

Unemployment remains around 70%

Human rights abuses continue

Economy improves

MUGABE’S FUTURE

There have been Wikileaks speculation that Mugabe is being treated for prostate cancer. Zanu-PF leaders are terrified of the security and political repercussions of a swift death.

They do not believe the Zanu-PF could beat the MDC in a Mugabe-less fair election.

Mugabe ill?

KLEPTOCRACY

Mugabe remains determined to loot Zimbabwe for his supporters.

In 2010, without consulting his MDC coalition partners, Mugabe passed a new law which forces private companies to give black Zimbabweans a 51% stake in their companies.

This has been a disaster for inward investment.

Mugabe is also desperate to profit from the country’s Marange diamond field, reputed to be the biggest diamond find in the history of mankind.

Potential revenue is estimated at $1 billion-$1.7 billion a year; about half of Zimbabwe’s total forecast GDP this year and enough to end its economic woes almost at a stroke.

The Kimberley Process Certification Scheme, which regulates international diamond trade, currently bans Zimbabwe from trading due to Zanu-PF human rights abuses and corruption. Mugabe is working hard to have the ban overturned.

Illegal Diamond Trading

AID TO ZIMBABWE’S PEOPLE

The bulk of DFID funds are provided through the UN and NGOs. DFID has promised to spend £88m each year in aid projects in Zimbabwe until 2015.

No funds went to or through the Government of Zimbabwe. 

DFID states that “if political transition takes place during the period we will significantly scale up the development programme to help a reforming government”.

THE FUTURE

It is obvious with Zimbabwe that the Mugabe government and bad governance across the board has been a major contributor to the country’s desperate situation.

The Inclusive Government is starting to win the confidence of international bodies, but judgement on whether Zimbabwe is being properly governed is still reserved. Perhaps only when Robert Mugabe leaves office will international confidence in Zimbabwe be restored.