Zounds!

When science sounds just a little too weird to be true

Episode 1: Live Longer Through Walking, Smelling, and Avoiding Red Meat

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Want to live longer?

It seems like every few months, I see an article that links something to my untimely death.

It’s almost like somehow, some way, we’re all going to die.

The Question

Unfortunately, while I’d like to believe that a nice nose, a vegetarian diet or a fast stride is going to make me live longer, I know better.

Correlation is NOT causation.

Photo credits: The Gifted Photographer, My Sweetheart the Drunk, Lloydcrew. (Flickr.com) Used under Creative Commons License.

The question is, why can’t the scientists

behind these studies figure that out?

The Source of the Problem

As it turns out, it’s not the scientists making wild, sensational claims.

It’s the science reporters.

Most have no idea what these studies are actually saying.

The Source of the Problem (cont’d)

As it happens, before I got into the social sciences, I studied

journalism.

Our scientific training was pretty meager.

For example, we spent an entire hour learning

to report statistics.

Journalism Degree ProgramCoursework Checklist

□ Scientific method (15 minutes)

□ Reporting statistics (1 hour)

□ Naming political scandals “something”-gate (2 weeks)

□ Covering tragic events (1 month)

□ City council meetings (3 weeks)

□ Opining on politics (1 month)

□ Writing great leads (1 semester)

□ Sports writing (2 classes)Note: This diagram is fictional, of course.

But ask a journalist – it’s not far from the truth.

FIGURE 1 – JOURNALISM COURSEWORK

The Source of the Problem (cont’d)

When I got to business school, I got a “D” on my first statistics test.

I learned then that statistics requires a lot

of study and hard work to understand properly.

Most journalists don’t.

The Source of the Problem (cont’d)

So, take this story, for instance.

It cites a study published in the latest

Journal of the American Medical

Association.

But all this study finds is a correlation

between gait speed and survival in older

adults.

A skeptic would argue it’s an indicator of

lifestyle, NOT a cause of longevity.

Why This is an Issue

“So?” you might ask. “Why should this

bother us?”

I’d argue it’s because the real story is so

much more interesting.

Sedentary lifestyles have been linked to all

sorts of diseases, including heart failure.

Science (and common sense!) suggests that as you get older, an active

lifestyle can extend your life expectancy.

Why This is an Issue (cont’d)

The study’s finding – that gait speed pertains

to survival rates – is really talking about

those who have kept up with their walking as

they age.

It links a behavior (walking as a form of

exercise) to an outcome (living longer

during old age).

That’s pretty cool!

Why This is an Issue (cont’d)

But the way the news is being reported

suggests that it’s not the behavior, but the

variable, that matters…

…as if the size of your stride at any stage can tell you how long you

can expect to live!Photo credit: Wellyproject. (Flickr.com) Used under Creative Commons License.

It’s no wonder that Americans often

“flunk” tests designed to study scientific

literacy.

We’re bombarded with sensational claims and don’t know what real scientific studies are

actually telling us.

Conclusion

It’s important to be skeptical when you

read about the results of a scientific study.

That way, you get a clear picture of the

facts.

Science Reporting Skepticism Question Checklist

□ Is the journalist implying causation from a mere correlation?

□ Did that political poll really shift, or is the change in approval less than the margin of error?

□ How many people were polled for this study?

□ Does the study’s source of funding play a role in the conclusions?

□ What are the actual scientific journals reporting as the findings of this study?

FIGURE 2 – SCIENCE SKEPTICISM CHECKLIST