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O.I.V. 05International Organisation of Vine and WineInternational Organisation of Vine and Wine

International Organisationof Vine and Wine

1



O.I.V. REPORT ON THESTATE OF THE VITIVINICULTURE

WORLD MARKET • Surface area of world vineyards •Grapes

•Global production •International trade

•Fresh grapes•Global production •Global consumption

•Raisins •Global production•Global consumption •International trade

•Wine•Global wine production • Global wine consumption• Degree of market equilibrium in the world of wine• International trade2


International Organisationof Vine and Wine Surface area of vineyards worldwide

Surface area of vineyards worldwide

3



79227921

7905

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

1000 ha


Areas planted in vines

4



11,9%2,4%

59,7%

4,5%

21,5%

EuropeAsiaAmericaAfricaOceania

Areas planted in vines by continent

Forecast 2004


5



-1000 -500 0 500

Africa

America

Asia

Europe

Oceania

World

91-95 / 86-90

96-00 / 91-95

Forecast 2004 /1999

Evolution of world vineyards


1000 ha

5 years evolution

6



1198

884856

590450

391

285 244 230 210 187 164

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1000 ha Areas planted in vines of the 12 leading countries

Forecast 2004

7



Total surface area of vineyards worldwide

7000

7500

8000

8500

9000

9500

10000

10500

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

Pro

v200

3

Fo

reca

st 2

004

SOURCE : OIV + conjoncture Mars 2005 (PA) Pro

jec

t.2

00

8

8000 mha

NB: if the rights for replanting within the EU-15 are taken into consideration and replanting is offset, we can foresee world area under vines in 2008 close to 8000 thousand ha

8


International Organisationof Vine and Wine Global grape production

Global grape production

9



618 626660

480 500 520 540 560 580 600 620 640 660 680

Total grape production1000 000 qx

10



22,7%

18,5%

5,3% 50,2%3,3%Europe

Asia

America

Africa

Oceania

Forecast 2004

Total grape production by continent

11



8478

6955

53

3726 25

20 2016 15

01020304050607080901000 000 qx

Total grape production of the 12 leading countries


Forecast 2004

12



82,277,3

78,079,1

83,5

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90


Qx / ha

Yield of global grape production

13


International Organisationof Vine and Wine Fresh grapes

International tradefresh grapes

14



25,4 25,1 28,0

05

101520253035404550

World importsof fresh grapes

Fresh grapes

1000 000 hl

15



World imports of fresh grapes by continent

Forecast 2003

Fresh grapes

56,1%28,8%

14,5%

0,2%

0,4% Europe

America

Asia

Africa

Oceania

16



0500

100015002000250030003500400045005000

World imports of fresh grapes of the 12 leading countries

Fresh grapes

1000 hl

Forecast 2003

17



26,8 27,7 31,0

05

101520253035404550

World exportsof fresh grapes

Fresh grapes

1000 000 qx

18



World exports of fresh grapes by continent

Forecast 2003

Fresh grapes

33,4%

48,7%

9,6%

7,0%1,3% Europe

America

Asia

Africa

Oceania

19



-2000 2000 6000

Africa

America

Asia

Europe

Oceania

World

91-95 / 86-90

96-00 / 91-95

01-prev.03 / 98-00

1000 qx

Fresh grapes

Evolution of World exportsof fresh grapes

5 years evolution

5 years evolution

2 years evolution

20



0100020003000400050006000700080009000

World exports of fresh grapes of the 12 leading countries

Fresh grapes

1000 qx

Forecast 2003

21



Global production of grapes for fresh usage

22



1000 000 qx Total production of fresh grapes

153,8 163,4 162,5

0 20 40 60 80

100 120 140 160 180

Fresh grapes

23



52,9%

21,1%

14,8%10,8% 0,4% Asia

Europe

America

Africa

Oceania

Total production of fresh grapes by continent

Forecast 2003

Fresh grapes

24



0

5

10

15

20

25

301000 000 qx

Total production of fresh grapes of the 12 leading countries

Forecast 2003

Fresh grapes

25



Global consumption of fresh grapes

26



1000 000 qx Total consumption of fresh grapes

149,4 156,9 157,3

0 20 40 60 80

100 120 140 160 180

Fresh grapes

27



54,9%22,6%

12,6%9,7% 0,2% Asia

Europe

America

Africa

Oceania

Total consumption of fresh grapes by continent

Forecast 2003

Fresh grapes

28



0

5

10

15

20

25

301 000 000 qx

Total consumption of fresh grapes of the 12 leading countries

Forecast 2003

Fresh grapes

39


International Organisationof Vine and Wine Raisins

Global raisin production

30



Total raisin production1000 qx

11 858 12 001 12 203

8 000 8 500 9 000 9 500

10 000 10 500 11 000 11 500 12 000

31



36%

8% 3%

51%

2%Asia

America

Europe

Africa

Oceania

Raisins

Total raisin production by continent

Forecast 200332



0500

1000150020002500300035004000

1000 qx Total raisin production of the 12 leading countries

Raisins

Forecast 2003

33



Global raisin consumption

34



Total raisin consumption 1000 qx

11 674 11 933 12 172

8 000 8 500 9 000 9 500

10 000 10 500 11 000 11 500 12 000

35



28%

28%

2%

38%

4%Europe

America

Asia

Africa

Oceania

Raisins

Total raisin consumption by continent

Forecast 200336



0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

1000 qx Total raisin consumption of the 12 leading countries

Raisins

Forecast 2003

37



International tradeRaisins

38



6,6 6,9 7,0

02468

101214

World importsof raisins

Raisins

1000 000 qx

39



World imports ofraisins

Forecast 2003

Raisins

63%13%

18%

2%4%

Europe

America

Asia

Africa

Oceania

40



0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

World imports of raisin of the 12 leading countries

Raisins

1000 qx

Forecast 2003

41



6,5 6,8 6,8

02468

101214

World exportsof raisins

Raisins

1000 000 qx

42



World exports of raisins

Forecast 2003

Raisins

10%

26%

58%

5%

1%Europe

America

Asia

Africa

Oceania

43



-500 0 500 1000

Africa

America

Asia

Europe

Oceania

World

91-95 / 86-90

96-00 / 91-95

01-Fore.03 / 98-00

1000 qx

Raisins

Evolution of World exports of raisins

5 years evolution

5 years evolution

2 years evolution

44



0200400600800

100012001400160018002000

World exports of raisins of the 12 leading countries

Raisins

1000 qx

Forecast. 2003

45


International Organisationof Vine and Wine Global wine production

Global wine production

46



260,7264,9

294,6

050

100150200250300350

1000 000 hl

World production of wine


47



16,1%

4,5% 5,1% 3,7%

70,6%

EuropeAmericaAsiaOceaniaAfrica

World production of wine by continent

Forecast 2004


48



0

10

20

30

40

50

60

World production of wine of the 12 leading countries


1000 000 hl

Forecast 2004

49


International Organisationof Vine and Wine Global wine production

Evolution of wine production

240250260270280290300310320330340350360370380390

Pro

ject

.200

8

300 Miohl

283 Miohl

Given that "proj.surface area * Proj.yield" = between 8000 thousand ha * 36,6 hl/ha = 295 Miohl

we can foresee 290 Miohl in 2008

SOURCE : OIV + conjoncture Mars 2005 (PA)

50


International Organisationof Vine and Wine Global wine consumption

Global wine consumption

51



229 234 236

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1000 000 hl

World consumption of wine


52



20,2%

6,7% 2,6% 2,2%

68,4%

EuropeAmericaAsiaAfricaOceania

World consumption of wine by continent

Prev. 2004


53



0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Global wine consumption in the 12 leading countries

1000 000 hl


Forecast 2004

54



Evolution of wine consumption


210

220

230

240

250

260

270

280

290

300

Pro

ject

.200

8

237 Miohl

Given the difficulty of foreseeing and taking into account:- the development of new markets, and the

- type of competition between spirit beverages in different geographical areas,the estimated mean is situated between 235 and 245 million hl


245 Miohl

55



Per capita wine consumption

Liters


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Prov.2003

56


International Organisationof Vine and Wine Degree of market equilibrium in the world of wine

Degree of market equilibrium in the world of wine

57



Trend of difference between wine production and consumption


0,0

10,0

20,0

30,0

40,0

50,0

60,0

70,0

80,0

90,0

100,0


NB: this spread can not be considered as a surplus because 35 million hl are used to supply the market for industrial purposes:

brandies, carburation, vinegars, and vermouth.

Given the projections for 2008 for production and consumption, the spread between production and

consumption should be between 38 and 65 million hl

and most probably around 50 million hl

58



1000 000 hl

-15000-10000

-50000

50001000015000200002500030000


Difference between wine production and consumption for the main producer countries

Average: 2002/Forecast 2004

59


International Organisationof Vine and Wine International trade

International trade

60



67,2 73,2 77,4

01020304050607080

World wine exports

International trade

1000 000 hl

61



World wine exports by continent

Forecast 2004

International trade

73,5%

13,2%

8,9% 4,0% 0,4%EuropeAmericaOceaniaAfricaAsia

62



-2000 2000 6000 10000

Africa

America

Asia

Europe

Oceania

World

91-95 / 86-90

96-00 / 91-95

02-Fore.04 / 99-01

1000 hl

International trade

Evolution of wine exports

5 years evolution

5 years evolution

2 years evolution

63



02000400060008000

10000120001400016000

World wine exports of the 12 leading countries

International trade

1000 hl

Forecast 2004

64



65,1 69,6 72,1

01020304050607080

World wine imports

International trade

1000 000 hl

65



World wine imports by continent

Forecast 2004

International trade

77%

15%4%

3%

1%Europe

America

Asia

Africa

Oceania

66



0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

World wine imports of the 12 leading countries

International trade

1000 hl

Forecast 2004

67



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