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OverviewOverviewCommunity Health Modeling Community Health Modeling

Working Group MeetingWorking Group Meeting

Planning and Technical Support DivisionPlanning and Technical Support Division

August 27, 2003August 27, 2003

Air Resources BoardAir Resources Board

California Environmental Protection AgencyCalifornia Environmental Protection AgencyA_Overview_082703.ppt

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Overview of the DayOverview of the Day• Morning:Morning:

– Overview of Current EffortsOverview of Current Efforts– Wilmington ProtocolWilmington Protocol– Statewide Protocol Statewide Protocol

• Afternoon:Afternoon:– December 2003 Board ItemDecember 2003 Board Item– Open discussionOpen discussion

• Your feedbackYour feedback• Peer ReviewPeer Review

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Overview of Current EffortsOverview of Current Efforts

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RecapRecapARB Policy Specific ActionsARB Policy Specific Actions • Regional maps showing estimated cancer health Regional maps showing estimated cancer health

risksrisks– ASPEN for nowASPEN for now

• Develop tools for assessments of cumulative Develop tools for assessments of cumulative

emissions, exposure, and health risk on a emissions, exposure, and health risk on a

neighborhood scale and provide maps showing neighborhood scale and provide maps showing

the results at the neighborhood level. the results at the neighborhood level. – Regional maps showing air pollution emission sources (I.e, Regional maps showing air pollution emission sources (I.e,

CHAPIS)CHAPIS)

– New Statewide Risk Modeling and MapsNew Statewide Risk Modeling and Maps

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PlanPlan• Conduct refined, neighborhood-scale air quality Conduct refined, neighborhood-scale air quality

modeling studies of toxic emissions for cumulative modeling studies of toxic emissions for cumulative

sources sources

– Barrio LoganBarrio Logan

– WilmingtonWilmington

• Extend neighborhood-scale experience to Extend neighborhood-scale experience to

approach that is applicable to any location in the approach that is applicable to any location in the

StateState

– Statewide ProtocolStatewide Protocol

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Micro-scale

Neighborhood-ScaleNeighborhood-Scale(Wilmington)(Wilmington)

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StatewideStatewide

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Modeling Approach and Tools

Emissions andMeteorology

MicroscaleModeling

RegionalModeling

IntegratedResults

Risk Assessment

Mapping andVisualization

UpdatedModelingProtocol

Modeling FrameworkModeling Framework

Statewide ModelingProtocol

Wilmington ModelingProtocol

Barrio LoganModelingProtocol

HARP

CHAPIS

Updates &

U

pdates &

Improvem

entsIm

provements

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External ReviewExternal Review

• Working Group EvaluationsWorking Group Evaluations• Independent Scientific Independent Scientific

Peer Review PanelPeer Review Panel– Mr. John, Irwin, US-EPAMr. John, Irwin, US-EPA– Dr. Michael J. Kleeman, UC DavisDr. Michael J. Kleeman, UC Davis– Dr. Christian Seigneur, Dr. Christian Seigneur,

Atms. and Env. Research, Inc.Atms. and Env. Research, Inc.– Dr. Steve Hanna, George Mason UniversityDr. Steve Hanna, George Mason University

Statewide ModelingProtocol

Wilmington ModelingProtocol

Barrio LoganModelingProtocol

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ChallengesChallenges

• Objective is NewObjective is New• Prior protocols based on regulatory Prior protocols based on regulatory

applicationsapplications• Regional Ozone Modeling (e.g. SIP)Regional Ozone Modeling (e.g. SIP)• Local Scale Single Sources (e.g. NSR, AB2588, etc)Local Scale Single Sources (e.g. NSR, AB2588, etc)

• No established metrics for model No established metrics for model performance for annual toxicsperformance for annual toxics

• New Protocols Currently Under DevelopmentNew Protocols Currently Under Development• Cumulative Source Modeling AnalysesCumulative Source Modeling Analyses

• Workshops & Peer ReviewWorkshops & Peer Review

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Challenges Challenges (Continued)(Continued)

• EmissionsEmissions– Stack Characterization and Activity Data for key sourcesStack Characterization and Activity Data for key sources– Higher Resolution for Areawide Sources (e.g. Offroad Diesel)Higher Resolution for Areawide Sources (e.g. Offroad Diesel)– Consistency of Microscale and Regional InventoriesConsistency of Microscale and Regional Inventories

• MeteorologyMeteorology– Microscale Input Availability and RepresentativenessMicroscale Input Availability and Representativeness– Consistency of Microscale and Regional Met (e.g. years)Consistency of Microscale and Regional Met (e.g. years)– Regional Met Model Run Times (~months)Regional Met Model Run Times (~months)

• ModelingModeling– Performance Metric ‘Rigor’ not yet establishedPerformance Metric ‘Rigor’ not yet established– Regional and Regional and Microscale Model ChoicesMicroscale Model Choices– Mobile Source Input Data: Spatial and Temporal ResolutionMobile Source Input Data: Spatial and Temporal Resolution– Regional AQ Model Run Times (~months at 4km x 4km)Regional AQ Model Run Times (~months at 4km x 4km)– Interest in Finer Grid ResolutionsInterest in Finer Grid Resolutions

• IntegrationIntegration– Double Counting of Emission Sources Double Counting of Emission Sources

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StatusStatus• Barrio LoganBarrio Logan (Pilot Study #1) (Pilot Study #1)

– Peer Reviewed Protocol (Complete)Peer Reviewed Protocol (Complete)

– Field Study (Complete)Field Study (Complete)

– Modeling Modeling (Nearing Completion) (Nearing Completion)

• WilmingtonWilmington (Pilot Study #2) (Pilot Study #2)– Protocol Protocol In ProgressIn Progress

– Field Study Field Study In ProgressIn Progress

• Statewide Statewide – Protocol DevelopmentProtocol Development In Progress In Progress

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ScheduleSchedule• October 2003October 2003

– CHAPISCHAPIS

• November 2003November 2003– Final Barrio Logan ReportFinal Barrio Logan Report– Final Statewide ProtocolFinal Statewide Protocol– Final Wilmington ProtocolFinal Wilmington Protocol

• December 2003December 2003– Board HearingBoard Hearing

• Regional Modeling Results:Regional Modeling Results:– Southern California – 1Southern California – 1stst Quarter 2004 Quarter 2004– Northern California – 3Northern California – 3rdrd Quarter 2004 Quarter 2004

• Microscale Modeling ResultsMicroscale Modeling Results– Southern California – 1Southern California – 1stst Half 2004 Half 2004

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Next….Next….

• Neighborhood-Scale ProtocolNeighborhood-Scale Protocol– WilmingtonWilmington

• Statewide Modeling ProtocolStatewide Modeling Protocol– Regional Modeling Regional Modeling

– Microscale ModelingMicroscale Modeling

– IntegrationIntegration