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Canadian DollarCanadian Dollar

Marc W. SteiningMarc W. Steining

Jonathon Hardy Jonathon Hardy

Lucas ValderramaLucas Valderrama

Canadian EconomyCanadian Economy

GDPGDP 33rdrd Quarter 2004, 1.7% Quarter 2004, 1.7% Annualized, 6.8%Annualized, 6.8%

InflationInflation In 2004, 2.0%In 2004, 2.0%

UnemploymentUnemployment January 2005, 7.0%January 2005, 7.0%

What we used?What we used?

Long-TermLong-Term InflationInflation Trade BalanceTrade Balance

Short-TermShort-Term RSIRSI MACD MACD Fast StochasticFast Stochastic

InflationInflation

Canada’s Inflation: 2.68%Canada’s Inflation: 2.68% US Inflation: 2%US Inflation: 2%

% Change in e = 2% - 2.68% = -0.68%% Change in e = 2% - 2.68% = -0.68% CAD$ appreciates by 0.68%CAD$ appreciates by 0.68%

Trade BalanceTrade Balance

Trade Surplus with the USTrade Surplus with the US CAD$ CAD$ 8,834,000,000 8,834,000,000 Growing trend in the past 5 yearsGrowing trend in the past 5 years We predict it will keep growingWe predict it will keep growing

Surplus of US$Surplus of US$ CAD$ appreciates against the US$CAD$ appreciates against the US$

Beyond the FundamentalsBeyond the Fundamentals

RSIRSI


RSIRSI

Chart Interval: DailyChart Interval: Daily

Period Length: 6 monthsPeriod Length: 6 months

RSI < 30 (Oversold)RSI < 30 (Oversold)

RSI > 70 (Overbought)RSI > 70 (Overbought)


MACDMACD


MACDMACD ““A divergence means that something is A divergence means that something is

happening”happening”

Positive to Negative = Sell SignalPositive to Negative = Sell Signal Negative to Positive = Buy SignalNegative to Positive = Buy Signal

Beyond the FundamentalsBeyond the FundamentalsFast StochasticFast Stochastic


Fast StochasticFast Stochastic Period High: 96Period High: 96 Period Low: 7Period Low: 7

Signal < 20 (Oversold)Signal < 20 (Oversold) Signal > 80 (Overbought)Signal > 80 (Overbought)

FX StreetFX Street

Marc Levesque, chief fixed income strategist Marc Levesque, chief fixed income strategist at TD Securities. at TD Securities. Tuesday, February 22, 2005Reuters - "The Tuesday, February 22, 2005Reuters - "The Bank of Canada still has a tightening bias, and Bank of Canada still has a tightening bias, and they're still cognizant of the fact that the they're still cognizant of the fact that the Canadian economy's operating pretty close to Canadian economy's operating pretty close to capacity, but this certainly provides them with capacity, but this certainly provides them with all the flexibility they need to remain on hold all the flexibility they need to remain on hold for as long as they need to."for as long as they need to."

Lightning RoundLightning Round

Q1: What country was not an official country Q1: What country was not an official country until 1982?until 1982?


Q1: What country was not an official country Q1: What country was not an official country until 1982?until 1982?

A1: Canada!A1: Canada!


What country’s citizens consume more Kraft What country’s citizens consume more Kraft Dinner (aka Kraft Macaroni & Cheese) per Dinner (aka Kraft Macaroni & Cheese) per capita than any other nationality on earth? capita than any other nationality on earth?


Q2: What country’s citizens consume more Q2: What country’s citizens consume more Kraft Dinner (aka Kraft Macaroni & Cheese) Kraft Dinner (aka Kraft Macaroni & Cheese) per capita than any other nationality on earth?per capita than any other nationality on earth?

A2: CANADA! A2: CANADA!


Q3: What country has more donut shops per Q3: What country has more donut shops per capita than the United States does?capita than the United States does?


Q3: What country has more donut shops per Q3: What country has more donut shops per capita than the United States does?capita than the United States does?

A3: A3: CANADA!CANADA!


Q4: What country has two territories named Q4: What country has two territories named Newfoundland and Labrador?Newfoundland and Labrador?


Q4: What country has two territories named Q4: What country has two territories named Newfoundland and Labrador?Newfoundland and Labrador?



Q5: In what country is Mountain Dew served Q5: In what country is Mountain Dew served without caffeine?without caffeine?


Q5: In what country is Mountain Dew served Q5: In what country is Mountain Dew served without caffeine?without caffeine?


Bonus Lightning RoundBonus Lightning Round

What is Canada’s official What is Canada’s official sport?sport?

Hint: There are nets involved.Hint: There are nets involved.

Bonus Lightning RoundBonus Lightning Round

What is Canada’s official What is Canada’s official sport?sport?

LACROSSELACROSSE