Censuses 2011 and

2021: What surprises

are emerging and how

they show that

cancellation is stupid

Danny DorlingUniversity of Sheffield

UK

RadStats annual conference

York

February 23rd 2013

(for those who are boredThey can play “Where’sWally” using this image)

Is it true? People are scepticalof those in power and what they say

However, the census is not conducted by people at the heart of power, but by a group who have been told that their services (in this regard) are not needed next time. I doubt that had any effect, but how sure can we be of the new “one number”?

There are now many numbers. The first number is for England and Wales. It has received most attention, an extra 1%:2011: 56.1 million, 53.0 million in England

and 3.1 million in Wales.Half a million more than thought to be here.3.7 million more than in 2001, 5.3 million

more than in 1991. Accelerating growth?Led by Tower Hamlets, Newham and

Manchester and by the 18 to 29 age groupBut with the second lowest growth in

households in a century (to 23.4m the lowest growth in households was 1991 to 2001, as economic inequalities continued rising)

ONS (2012) 2011 Census - Population and Household Estimates for England and Wales, March 2011, 16 July, corrected version 20 JulyNote that for unclear reasons: “Comparison with 2001 and 1991 is based on mid-year population estimates for those years, comparison with 1981 and earlier is based on census results.” Note: The 1981 census missed 1,005,000 residents in “wholly absent households” which may have had a smaller average size…

Here is part of the graph as released on July 16 before correction on the 20th. I’ve added the arrow. I guess 1991 & 2001 census used here.

And here is the second (and third) numbersScotland, released late (and Northern Ireland)

5.2 million in 2011 (1.8 in NI so UK is 63.1 m, up up…)

190,600 more than the census in 2001 (the quality of last census in Scotland remains unquestioned)

This figure is NOT census – Which was 5.295 million

“Scotland’s population has seen a continuous increase in recent years, partly because there have been more births than deaths, but mainly because more people have moved to Scotland than have left. This trend continued in 2011, with migration largely responsible for an increase of 0.6 per cent in the population. At 5,254,800 the population is now the highest ever recorded, 14,000 higher than the previous high in 1974.” http://www.egovmonitor.com/node/53051

Explaining the England and Wales difference – mostly… more women

Comparing rolled forward (MYE) and census…. The difference is made up of 144,000 fewer

males and 332,000 fewer females in MYE For men, more in the 10 to 19 and 30 to 39

age groups – but less in 20-29 – so maybe not recent migrants but good times migrants?

For women the pattern is similar but elevated, more in general – reflecting more women with degrees worldwide maybe?

Almost all the discrepancy is in under 40 age groupsONS (2012) Explaining the Difference between the 2011 Census Estimates and the Rolled-Forward Population Estimates, 16 June 2012

Not counting folk in (immigration) is given as a key reason, but is this it?“It seems that the remaining 175,000 is

therefore attributable to IPS underestimation. This could be due to underestimating immigration or overestimating emigration. The emigration component is not examined in any detail in this current report, but will be discussed in a more detailed report for England and Wales due to be published in December 2012. “

(the bulk – excluding Irish underestimation)Could there be quite a few people who live in England and Wales, and it is theirMain home, but they also live somewhere else, and sometimes that is theirMain home too? Are we likely to start seeing double and triple counting?The 2001 mid year estimate from a decade ago is now up-rated by 209,000!

The NHS count in more (Flag 4’s) from abroad, but remember, they counted in more within England too

I rememberNHS popCounts Being18% higherIn some areas than actual counts when first used.

Can we trust it? As a count of who is here:Yes (we can) - …………………… but, some of those who are here may also be elsewhere too.

The official confidence intervals reported on the 56.1 million figure is +/- 83,000. If people were billiard balls being counted in a swimming pool, sampled and re-sampled I would quote this. As they are people I won’t.

Key source is: Baillie, M., Brown, J., Taylor, A. and Abbott, O. (2010) An evaluation of Bootstrapping for Variance Estimation. Internal Report. [a 2012 re-evaluation of the methods are needed now we know that 2001 estimates were out]. We also need to know about international double-counting rates.

The extreme confidence widthsBroadland * 0.60%

North Norfolk * 0.62%

Horsham 0.62%

Chichester 0.65%

Arun 0.65%

Liverpool 3.39%

Hammersmith and Fulham 3.44%

Camden 3.49%

Plymouth 3.59%

Kensington and Chelsea

……

3.79% *on the ground not so dull(my

summer holidays/fieldwork)

What does the census tell us? I wrote an abstract in June 2012 for this talk – before the release:

“If the number is similar to current population estimates for the UK in 2011 then it will be argued that the demographic pattern is more similar to that experienced from 1930 to 1934 when the UK did not lose that many people, because events elsewhere were often just as bad. If the number is lower than current estimates that would suggest that what has occurred is similar to the last three recessions, and – at least demographically – this “Great recession” is less like a global economic depression. “

1930-31 net emigration – despite depression (apologies for miss-spelling in original!)

(Source: “Unequal health” Policy Press, 2013)

Contrast this with:[Environment and Planning A, 2007, volume 39, page 1024]

“When the 2001 Census results were first published the Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that there were 58 789194 people living in the United Kingdom in spring 2001. This was almost exactly a million more than had been estimated to be living there in 1991 – 57 770 226 … but more than a million fewer than had previously been thought to be living in the United Kingdom in 2001 …. The population had grown by a million in ten years, rather than by more than two million as we had thought. National estimates of population change in the decade appeared to be 105% awry”

Is it possible that more people are calling two countries “home”

People who haveone home here,say in term time,or summer? orWho still say “Auf Wiedersehen, Pet(note Liverpool inthe list).

Ignore theblue crosses(% scale)

Figures are old annual population growth estimates.The UK appears out of line- slowacceleration

(Angus Madison’sdata - wasfrom 2010)

2007 2008 2009 0.08% 0.07% 0.05% Austria 0.13% 0.11% 0.10% Belgium 0.32% 0.30% 0.30% Denmark 0.14% 0.12% 0.10% Finland 0.61% 0.59% 0.56% France -0.03% -0.04% -0.05%

Germany 0.02% 0.00% -0.03% Italy 0.48% 0.45% 0.42% Netherlands 0.37% 0.36% 0.36% Norway 0.12% 0.11% 0.08% Spain 0.16% 0.15% 0.17% Sweden 0.41% 0.35% 0.30% Switzerland 0.285% 0.286% 0.287%

United Kingdom 1.15% 1.14% 1.12% Ireland 0.17% 0.15% 0.13% Greece 0.35% 0.32% 0.29% Portugal

This graphicwas made in 2010

http://moritz.stefaner.eu/projects/remixing-rosling/

Fertility in the last ten years in the UK has risen unusually

In historic context a blip

But the reason why UK has had growth compared to Germany Source: Dorling, D. The population of the UK (November 2012)

The first 2011 analysis key statistics was done in 1 week  Ludi Simpson and Stephen Jivraj’s work:

 on behalf of the Centre on Dynamics of Ethnicity at The University of Manchester, had analysed the results and determined that every single ethnic minority group within England and Wales had become more dispersed geographically despite rising in numbers in most cases. The same was true of every religion group except for the Jewish religion

In January Ben Hennig and I found that the census suggested polarise in London (see next slide)

It also confirmed that housing tenure was polarising, mass private renting occuring

Kensington and Chelsea was emptying Life expectancy may not be polarising…(however real rise in deaths occurring now)And – shock horror – not everyone speaks

English. But many users have been cut….

Poverty, wealth and place 2001-2011

Data: UK 2011 CensusReleased December 2012Megacity London: Ever more growing, ever more unequal?

Middle

Exclusive WealthyBreadline Poor

Absolute differences to 2001:

10.8% increase in exclusive wealth; 19.2% increase in breadline poverty; 2.1% decline in Middle households

Excl. Wealthychange

Middlechange

Breadline Poor change

Core Poor change*

London +0.2% -4.7% +4.5% +1.2%Inner London +0.3% -0.2% -0.1% -0.5%Outer London +0.0% -7.4% +7.4% +2.2%

* Subset of Breadline Poor

The tenets of injustice:1. Elitism is essential – for economic efficiency? 2. Exclusion necessary - the poor will always be with

us no matter how rich we are. Because we cannot afford to alleviate poverty?

Public Expenditure (%GDP) International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Economic

Outlook Databasefor October, Washington, DC, IMF, 2010http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2010/02/weodata/index.aspx

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United Kingdom

The timing matters - How Big A Cut Is This?HOWEVER not that is is a projection – as GDPHas shrunk and as public spending has not beenCut quite as fast as the government planned the 2011And 2012 falls should not appear as steep as this.

Those of the world’s 25 richest large countries which are in Europe + USA

Public Expenditure (%GDP) International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Economic

Outlook Databasefor October, Washington, DC, IMF, 2010http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2010/02/weodata/index.aspx

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United States

Greece

Slovenia

Germany

Spain

Ireland

Norway

Portugal

Italy

Netherlands

Finland

Austria

Sweden

France

Denmark

Belgium

On replacing most of the census with a survey – news from Canada

“these data would not be strictly comparable to the data from previous censuses, although comparisons would continue to be made in the absence of anything else; and, second, data for some smaller sub-groups of the population and smaller geographical areas may not be released because of unacceptable quality.

As the clock is ticking for a decision on the 2016 census, I hope the government would consider restoring the long-form census”

Munir Sheikh, former chief statistician of Canada,

Ottawa Citizen Newspaper, February 9th 2012.

There were 36 known censi held by the last empire as big as Britain's once was – we have had, around, 21 (Source of claim: Ernst Engel, Royal Prussian Statistics Office, February 1862)The first census originates from the year

185 of the Roman epoch (569 B.C.). The last was held in the year 74 A.D. during the reign of Emperor Vespasian. Altogether they span a period of some 640 years. … total population of the Roman Empire at the time of King Servius Tullius is estimated, by various authors, to have been about 420,000 compared to Emperor Claudius’ time, some 600 years later, at 34,720,000.

Q:Is the 2011 Census count true?A: yes – but more folk think of themselves as international… Q: What does it tell us? A: that in the long recession here is better than there…

Q: Do we need a census in 2021?A: Want an micro-chip implant?