Country Power: Past, Present & FUTURE

David B. Miller, NVCC-AlexandriaGeography 230: Geopolitics

Past World Powers: 16th century PORTUGAL – challenged by Spain

16th Century: Rise of the WestEurope’s Rise and China’s Decline 1500: Portugal claims Brazil and parts of Africa. 1521: Portugal takes Persian Gulf lands from the Ottomans. 1521: Portuguese invade China near Hong Kong. 1522: Portuguese ally with Indonesian rulers and build forts for trade. 1543: Portuguese forces help Ethiopia defeat a Somali-Ottoman army. 1548: Ming Dynasty (China) bans foreign trade. Portugal loses income. 1580: Spain takes control of Portugal; Portuguese empire goes into decline. 1602: Start of Dutch-Portuguese war; Dutch take many Portuguese lands.

Past World Powers: 17th centuryNETHERLANDS – challenged by France & England

17th Century: Rise of Dutch Power as Portugal and Spain Decline 1605: Dutch capture Portuguese fort in Indonesia. 1606: Dutch discover Australia then New Zealand (1642). 1619: Dutch invade Java (Indonesia). 1625: New Amsterdam (today’s New York) founded by Dutch. 1630: Dutch found Dutch Brazil, taking territory from the Portuguese. 1664: English capture New Amsterdam, renaming it New York. 1667: France invades the Netherlands, but withdraws after peace treaty. 1672-78: War between France and the Netherlands leads to Dutch decline.

The World in 1700--Age of Empires

Past World Powers: 18th – mid 20th centuriesBRITAIN– challenged by France, Russia, Germany

18th Century: Rise of British Power as France and the Netherlands Decline 1664: Dutch settlement of New Amsterdam (New York City) to England 1710: British seize French Arcadia, renaming it Nova Scotia. 1754: Anglo-French war commences in North America. 1760: French Montreal surrenders to British forces. 1763: Anglo-French war ends; British gains in North America and India. 1776-1783: American Revolution; British lose American colonies. 1788: British settle Australia; explore Africa’s interior. 1795: British take the Cape Colony (South Africa) from the Dutch. 1798: Battle of the Nile, Britain’s Royal Navy destroys French fleet.

19th Century: Britain as a World Power challenged by France and Russia

1801: Steam locomotive invented in Britain; railways follow. 1805: British victory over a French-Spanish fleet at the Battle of Trafalgar gives

Britain control of the seas for the next 110 years. 1815: A British-led allied army defeats Napoleon at the Battle of Waterloo. 1837: British and Indian troops enter Afghanistan to protect India from Russia. 1842: Afghan revolt; some 16,000 retreating British are massacred. 1854: Britain enters war against Russia to stop Russian expansion into Europe. 1856: Britain defeats Russia in the Crimean War. 1878-1880: British army invades Afghanistan and defeats Afghan forces. 1882: British take control of Egypt and the Suez Canal.

20th Century: Britain Declines as a World Power challenged by Germany and the Soviet Union

1902: British forces win Boer War in South Africa. 1904: British engineer invents the vacuum tube, starting the electronics age. 1914: Britain launches the world’s first aircraft carrier; World War I starts. 1918: Germany defeated; Britain gains Germany’s African colonies. 1919-1921: Guerrilla war in Ireland shows cracks in British Empire. 1919: Egyptian revolution; Egypt gains independence from Britain in 1922. 1940: Germany conquers France; 338,000 British soldiers rescued from Dunkirk 1945: Germany surrenders, but the British Empire suffers 3.1 million casualties. 1947: India gets independence; Cold War leadership passes from Britain to U.S.

The World in 1860—Waning of Empire

Europe went from absolute monarchies to democratic republics after the world wars

1913 2013

Europe at the height of World War II, 1942

Losses by Russia and China in World War II affect their nationalism today

Poland--18% of population killed

Soviet Union—11 million soldiers killed Soviet Union—24

million civilians killed

China—20 million civilians killed

World Powers: 20th – early 21st centuryU.S.– challenged by U.S.S.R, then China

U.S. troops in the country

Selected countries with U.S. troops, 2014

20th Century: Rise of U.S. Power as Britain and Europe Decline 1890: The U.S. passes Britain as the world’s largest steel producer.

1898: The U.S. defeats Spain, taking over the Spanish colonies of Guam, Philippines, Puerto Rico, and Cuba.

1917: America enters World War I; Russian Empire falls to revolution. 1918: German and Austro-Hungarian empires defeated; monarchies fall. 1929-33: Wall Street stock market crash; 13 million unemployed in U.S. 1933: President Franklin Roosevelt’s “New Deal” recovery program starts. 1941: Japanese attack Pearl Harbor, 2,400 killed; U.S. enters World War II. 1945: Germany defeated; U.S. uses first atomic bombs; Japan surrenders.

20th Century: U.S. Power during Cold WarBipolar World and Demise of the U.S.S.R. 1947: U.S. replaces Britain as the lead power in fighting communism; Cold

War with Soviet Union and other communist states begins. 1948: America’s Marshall Plan starts; helps revive European economies. 1950-53: U.S. forces lead military effort against communism in Korean War. 1961: U.S.-organized invasion of communist Cuba at Bay of Pigs fails. 1962: U.S. compels Soviet Union to withdraw nuclear weapons from Cuba. 1973: American forces pull out of Vietnam; South Vietnam falls in 1975. 1983: U.S. invades Grenada after a bloody coup installs a pro-Cuba regime. 1989: Last of Soviet troops withdraw from Afghanistan after a 9 year war. 1991: U.S.S.R. dissolves into 15 countries, making U.S. the sole superpower.

Late 20th & Early 21st Centuries: Asia RisesFrom U.S. Superpower toward a Multipolar World

1991: U.S. forces lead in liberation of Kuwait, routing Iraqi occupation troops.

1996: China fires missiles at Taiwan; U.S. Navy carriers sent to protect Taiwan. 1999: U.S. plays dominant role in NATO bombing of Serb forces in Kosovo. 2001: Terrorist attacks on World Trade Center & Pentagon, nearly 3,000 dead 2001: U.S. air strikes against Taliban in Afghanistan; Taliban government falls. 2003: U.S.-led campaign invades Iraq and topples Saddam Hussein’s regime. 2008: U.S. faces its worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. 2011: U.S. forces kill Al Qaeda leader Osama Bin Laden in Pakistan. 2011: Intervention in Libya by U.S. & NATO forces ends brutal dictatorship.

PERCEPTION: THREATENING

LESS THREATENING

Details reveal strengths and weaknesses

China adds 1st carrier in 2012 U.S. retires carrier in 201210

Includes 9 small carriers

15th century China’s huge navy

Defense spending cycles in dollars

Defense spending cycles as a percent of the U.S. economy’s GDP

What makes a country a superpower?

POPULATION?

What makes a country a superpower?

MILITARY?

What makes a country a superpower?MILITARY READINESS?

What makes a country a superpower?

ALLIES?

What makes a country a superpower?

MOREALLIES?

What makes a country a superpower?ALLIES CONFRONTING A RIVAL?

JAPAN’S NEW CARRIER

What makes a country a superpower?ALLIES CONFRONTING A RIVAL?

INDIA

What makes a country a superpower?

MOREALLIES THANOTHERS?

What makes a country a superpower?

ACCESSTORESOURCES?

China

IndiaU.S.

E.U.

China & India could be increasingly dependent on energy imports.

What makes a country a superpower?

A SOUND POLITICALSYSTEM?

What makes a country a superpower?

FRIENDLY BORDERS?

What makes a country a superpower?

INTERNALUNREST?

What makes a country a superpower?

INTERNALUNREST?

What makes a country a superpower?

LEVEL OF CORRUPTION?

What makes a country a superpower?

COMMUNICATIONSINFRASTRUCTURE?

Using communication as a weapon? Cyber attacks?

It is all these things (and more) and how they change spatially and temporally.