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Page 1: Deadline, 2012

(July24:DandyWandy)

Firstofall,theabilitytotradeplayersisoneofthereasonssportsare

awesome.I’mkindofsurprisedthatnoonehasevermountedasuccessfulSupreme

Courtchallengetotheconceptoftransferringhumanbeingsacrossthecountrytoa

newworkplace(sometimeswith,butmoreoften)withouttheirconsent.Thinkofit

inlayman’sterms:

That’dbeprettycool,unlessyouweretheguytradedtoStarbucksheadquartersin

Seattleforacrateofballpointpens.

Althoughwe’veplayedgreatbaseballafterthebreak,it’sclearthatwe’re

goingtoneedsomenewbloodifwewanttohangwiththeRedsdownthestretch.

Twomonthsago,theBucsneededtopickupabatlikeLazarusneededthatpick‐me‐

upfromChrist.Now,withtheoffenseoutpacingthatoftheYankees,astarting

pitchermightbethefirstpriority.JeffKarstenshasbeengoodsincehisreturnfrom

injury,butBedardcontinuestoflounderandCorreiaisbasicallyatickingtime

bomb.Soonenough,eitherBedardwillbesidelinedwithastrainedrightkidneyor

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Correia’sERAwilljumpintothe6.00range(orboth),soitwouldbeprudentfor

NealHuntingtontogooutandgetareliablestarter.

ThebignamesinthestartingpitchermarketareColeHamelsandZack

Greinke,neitherofwhomarerealisticoptionsforthePirates.Inthesecondtieris

theCubs’RyanDempster,theownerofMLB’sbestERAthisseason.Dempsterisn’t

amarqueenamelikeHamelsorGreinke,buthe’safive‐and‐tenguy(fiveyearswith

currentteam,tenyearstotalintheleague)andthereforehastherighttovetoany

tradehedoesn’tlike.ReportshavelinkedhimtoadealwithAtlanta,buthe’s

stallingonthatanditlookslikehemightultimatelyrejectit.Ifhe’sreluctanttojoin

theBraves,Ican’timaginehe’dokayatradetotheupstartPirates.Hisloss.

Lastnight,wordbrokeoutthatthePiratesmightbeinterestedinAstros’

rotationstalwartWandyRodriguez.

(I’mintheOlympicspiritnow.U‐S‐A.)

Rodriguezhasbeenthepersonificationofreliabilityoverthepastfewyears,

whichisexactlywhatthePiratesneedatthismoment.Pitchingintheanonymityof

Houston,he’sputupanERAbetween3.00and3.60ineachofthelastfourseasons.

IfIhadtodescribeWandyRodriguezinoneword,it’dbe“solid.”That’scertainlya

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compliment.He’sundercontractthrough2014,whichmeanshe’dbebothashort

andlongtermaddition—butalsomeansitwilltakemorethanathrowaway

prospecttoacquirehim.Aslongasthepriceisn’ttoohigh,I’djumponit.

Midwaythroughadepressing5‐1homelosstotheCubs(theCubs,really?),

theWandyspeculationturnsintoreality.

Well,thisismoreexcitingthanwatchingJ‐Macsputteragainsta39‐56team.

Assumingthenewsistrue,theonlyremainingquestioniswhatthePirateswillbe

givingup.TherearefiveprospectsinthePittsburghsystemthatIconsider“off‐

limits”unlesswe’retalkingaboutamajorpickup:GerritCole(RHP/21years

old/2011#1overallpick),JamesonTaillon(RHP/20/2010#2overallpick),Josh

Bell(OF/19/20112ndroundpickwithupper‐halfof1stroundtalent),Starling

Marte(OF/23/2011Double‐Abattingaverageleader),andLuisHeredia

(RHP/17/Mexicanwunderkindwithhugeceiling).Noneofthatquintetwouldbein

theconversationforWandy.1ButanythingbelowthemI’dbeokaywith.

1It’sbecomingcleartomethat“Wandy”isoneofthosenamesthatlendsitselftobeingtheperson’smaintitle.Yousay,“Wandy”andpeopleknowimmediatelywhoyou’retalkingabout.LikeOprah.Hearing,“Rodriguezispitchingtonight,”islikehearing,“Winfrey’sshowisonat3.”

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45minuteslater,it’sofficial.

Nice!Let’sseetheearlyreviews.

(BucsDugout.comcontributor)

(BaseballAmericawriter)

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I’mrightwiththem.

GrossmanwastheprincipalransomfortheAstrosinthisexchange.Hehad

agreatyearinhigh‐Aballlastyear,walkingover100timesandputtingupastellar

.418OBP.It’shardtoenvisionhimasaregularbigleaguecorneroutfielder,though,

duetohislackofpop.Icouldseehimdevelopingintoabenchbat/platoonplayer

sortofguy,whichisusefulbutnotanythingtofretoverlosing.Owenswasalow‐

minorsstar,butstruggledmightilyoncehegottoTriple‐A.Helikelydoesn’thave

majorleaguevaluegoingforward.Cainissomethingofaquestionmark;ahigh

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schoolbonusbaby,he’spostedmiddlingresultsinrookieandlow‐Aball.The

chanceshegrowsintoanMLBstarteraren’tgreat.Alltold,whatwe’regivingupis

probablynotworth2+seasonsofWandy.AfteryearsoftoilingforhopelessAstros

clubs,I’msureWandy’sthrilledtojoinacontenderforthestretchrun!

Oh.Well,uh,thatjustreflectsthekindofcommitmentanddedicationyou’re

lookingforinanewaddition!(?)Justjoshin’.IhadthesamereactionwhenIfound

outmycablepackageatschooldidn’tincludeMLBNetwork.

Therearealsoafewhiddensweetenersinthedeal.Forone,thePiratesadd

aveteranpitcherwithoutrestrainingtheirundersizedcheckbookasmuchasyou’d

thinksuchamovemight.

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TheAstrosaremovingtotheAmericanLeagueWestin2013.Theyarealreadythe

worstteaminbaseballbyatrulylaughablemargin.Giventhestepupin

competition,theywilllikelylosebetween100and105gamesineachofthenext

twoyears.Andinthemidstofoneofthose14‐3drubbingsatthehandsofthe

Rangers,generalmanagerJeffLuhnowwillthinktohimself,“WehavepaidWandy

Rodriguezthousandsofdollarsduringthisgamealone,andhecannothelpusstop

thebleedingbecauseheplaysforthePittsburghPirates.”Suchisthepriceof

baseballsometimes.ThePiratesaredoingwelltoexploitthis.

Also,shouldWandycontinuepitchinginthegeneralmannerhe’spitchedthis

season,hisresultswillimprovebyvirtueofchangeinworkplacealone.

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GreatworkbyJon.HepostedagraphicdocumentingthelandingspotsofallHRs

Wandyhasallowedathomein2012,imposedonamapofPNCPark.It’sprettyeasy

toseethatnearlyallhomerunshe’sallowedtoleftfieldbecomeouts—or,atworst,

doubles—ifthey’rehitinPittsburgh.Anyonewho’severwatchedagamein

Houstonknowstheleftfield“CrawfordBoxes2”arethedefinitionofa“shortporch”

andturnmanylongflyballsintocheaphomers.Whatyoumightnotrealizeisjust

howbigofanimpactthatcanhaveonapitcher’sresultsifhepitcheshalfhisgames

there.In2011,WandyRodriguezandMikePelfreyhadnearlyidenticalbattedball

profiles:whencontactwasmade,Rodriguezinduced20.0%linedrives,45.2%

groundballs,and34.8%flyballscomparedtoPelfrey’s19.6%,45.6%,and34.7%

marksinthesamecategories.It’snotastretchtosaythatthedifferenceintheir

homerunperflyballrate(HR/FB)—13.0%forWandy,9.1%forPelfrey—probably

hadsomethingtodowiththefactthatoneofthempitchedtheirhomecontestsin

2NamedassuchbecausetheyrunparalleltoCrawfordStreetindowntownHouston,thankyouWikipedia.

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frontoftheCrawfordBoxeswhiletheotherstarted15gamesinthespacious

dimensionsofNewYork’sCitiField.Sciencerules.3

I’mnotsayingIhavenoreservations.We’retalkingabouta33‐yearold

pitcherwhoprobablywon’tbeimprovingwithage(unlesshegoestheBarryBonds

route,whichisillegalbothbybaseballrulesandfederallaw)andisalreadyshowing

somemildsignsofdecline.

Wandyhastraditionallybeenahighstrikeoutguy,buthisK/9hasbeenfalling

incrementallysince2008andcurrentlysitsat6.13.Hittersaremakingmore

contactonhispitchesbothinandoutofthestrikezone,whichindicatesthatthe

dropisn’tjustacoincidenceofsequencing.4Fortunately,itdoesn’tlooklikea

productofdiminishedstuff—hisaveragefastballvelocityisactuallyhigherthanit

3Yes,thatwasaBillNyetheScienceGuythemesongreference.Borninthe‘90sandproudofit.4“Coincidenceofsequencing?”Considerthis:PitcherAandPitcherBbothget10swingingstrikesinagame.PitcherAracksup10strikeouts,becauseallhiswhiffscamewithtwostrikes.PitcherBstrikesnooneout,becauseheinducedswings‐and‐missesearlyinthecountexclusively.Theyprobablyhavesimilar“whiffskills,”eveniftheresultsdiffer.Ifyouhadtopredicttheirfuturestrikeoutrates,you’dwanttohavethisinformationonhand.

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wasinhisbeststrikeoutyear(2008).PitchFXdataalsorevealsanuptickin2‐seam

fastballsthisyear,indicatingthatthespikeingroundballsisintentional.Themore

groundballsonegets,themoreonecangetawaywithfewerstrikeouts,becauseone

isreducingthepossibilityoftheballbeinghitintheairforahomerun.Asexpected,

weconcludeourdescriptionofWandyRodriguezwiththeword“solid.”Wandy

Rodriguezisasolidpitcher.

(July26:ChangeYouGottaBelieveIn)

Wheelinganddealingisn’ttheonlymethodofrosterimprovementavailable

tothePirates.Tonight,they’llupgradefromwithin.Muchballyhooedprospect

StarlingMarteissettomakehismajorleaguedebutinHoustonafteritwas

announcedyesterday,towidespreadglee,thathe’dbejoiningthebigclub.

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Tothispoint,thePirates’leftfieldsituationhasconsistedofAlexPresley

(.231/.269/.364),therecentlydemotedJoseTabata(.230/.295/.341),andfolkhero

DrewSutton(.241/.250/.431,butwiththedefensiveprowessofawandering

sheep).Meanwhile,Marte’sbeencomingintohisownatTriple‐AIndianapolis

(.286/.347/.500,with13triplesand12homersin99games),andtheclamorsfor

hispromotionhavegrowndeafeningrecently.Iunderstandthereluctancetorusha

prospecttothebigleaguesbeforehe’sabsolutelyready,butdiretimescallfordire

measures.Unfortunately,I’msittingonaplanerightnowenroutetovacationin

SouthCarolina,soIwon’tbeabletowatch.Starling’sbattingleadoff.Hopethekid

makessomethinghappen.

[Flightlandsat8:20,IimmediatelyturnmyphoneonandrefreshTwitter]

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Firstpitchoftheballgame!Hecouldgo0‐for‐Augustandstillmaintainthefans’

supportafterthisentrance.Thefuture’ssobright,wegottawearflip‐downshades.5

(July29:Speculation)

EveryoneishappyabouttheWandyacquisition.Withtheexceptiontheguy

whogotforcedoutoftherotationasaresult.

5PatentedbyPiratesHallofFameplayer‐managerFredClarkein1915!#BUCN

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Correiawantstobeastarter,andhe’snotcontentwithbeingalongrelief

optioninPittsburgh.Understandable.Beingastartingpitcherhasacertainbadge

ofhonorqualityaboutit,especiallyforsomeonewho’sstarted105gamesinthelast

fouryears.Iwouldn’tbehappyeither.ButIthinkI’drealizethatIwasa

replacement‐levelcommoditytobeginwith.

TheotherthingI’veheardtodayisavaguerumorthatthePiratesareoneof

theteamsprobingtheIndiansaboutShin‐SooChoo’saskingprice.Allegedly,it

wouldincludeMarte.That’sgonnabeano‐go.

WelosttotheAstrostoday.J‐MacwalkedSEVEN.I’mstartingtobecome

concerned.Hereallyneedstoturnitaroundorelsetherestoftheseasonisgoingto

be“A.J.andWandyandprayforrain.”46hourslefttomakesomedeals.InNealWe

Trust.

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(July30:Bye,Bye,Brad;Salut,Snider)

EverseethatJean‐ClaudeVanDammemovieSuddenDeath,wherethesetting

isGame7oftheStanleyCupFinals6butthefocusofeverythingistheevents

happeningofftheice?Tonight’sgameagainsttheCubsisexactlylikethat,except

thatWrigleyFieldisn’tladenwithbombsintendedtokilltheVicePresidentanda

bunchofotherimportantpeople.TheBucsaregettingsmashedbytheBabyBears,

butwe’remorefocusedonpossibletransactionsthatarebeingnegotiatedduring

thegame,andthey’remoreconcernedaboutsendingtheirrecentlytradedplayers

offwithhugs.

Chicago’stradedPaulMaholmandReedJohnsontotheBraves,andmovedGeovany

SotototheRangers—andthisgameisn’tevenoveryet.Eachtime,theCubshave

convenedinthedugoutandtakenturnsembracingtheirnowex‐teammates.Watch

out,Cubbies:alengthypatonthebackafteragoodplaymightmean,“Niceknowing

you,”andnot,“Nicejob.”

6InPittsburgh,coincidentally.

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Foronce,IcouldcarelessifErikBedardhasgivenupgivenupnineruns

withoutgettingoutofthe5th,becausethetradewindsareblowing.TheChoo

rumorisn’tdeadyet.StephenDrew’snamehasbeenmentioned.Puttingtogethera

packageforSanDiego’sChaseHeadleyisstillaremotepossibility.Somethingis

goingtohappeninthenext18hours.Nobody’squitesurewhat.

What,now?IknowwhoTravisSnideris.He’soneofthoseguyswho’sbeen

talkedaboutasabigprospectforyearsbuthasn’tbeenabletoestablishhimselfin

thebigs.Sniderbringsatonofupside.Iwouldneverhaveguessed,however,that

he’dbeonourradarasapotentialdeadlinepickup.Whenyouthinkdeadline

acquisitions,youthinkofprovenvetsbroughtintostabilizeateamintheshort‐

term,notyoungsterswithuntappedpotential.Butgettingbeyondthesurprise

factor,itsoundslikeareallygooddeal.

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(Meaningwejustgotasteal.)

(Morosi=FOXSports.comnationalbaseballwriter)

(Ithoughtthatwasareallyfunnyresponse.)

Assuredly,somepeoplearegoingtobeupset.ThePiratesaresurrendering

their0.50ERA7thinningmanforanunprovenoutfielder.

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It’strue:BradLincolnhasbeencompletelyfantasticoutofthebullpenthisyear.

That’sexactlytheissue,though:theconsensusisthatLincolnisnevergoingtobe

muchmorethanagoodreliever.There’svalueingetting60‐80qualityrelief

inningsayearoutofaguy,butbullpenpartsarealsoadimeadozen.Justlookat

thenamesthePirateshavepickedupforessentiallynothingoverthelastfewyears:

JasonGrilli(pluckedfromPhilliesTriple‐Aaffiliate,sub‐2.00ERAthisyear),Juan

Cruz($1.25millionfreeagent,2.61ERA),JoseVeras($1millionfreeagent,9.2

careerK/9),JavierLopez($775,000freeagent,2.79ERAin2010),andthelistgoes

on.Youcantakefailedstarterswithgoodarms(i.e.Lincolnhimself)andtrainthem

tobeeffectiverelievers.IfTravisSniderdevelopsintoanaveragepositionplayer—

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andthere’snoreasontothinkhewon’t—he’lleasilyequalLincoln’sworththrough

theendoftheirrespectiveteamcontrolperiods.

TravisSniderhasputuparespectable.248/.306/.429linefortheBlueJays,

whilereceivinginfrequentplayingtime.He’sneverhadachancetosettleinatthe

majorleaguelevelformorethanhalfaseason.Hasheliveduptoexpectations?Not

quite.CanwethrowhimuptherewithRyanLeafandKwameBrownintheBust

HallofFame?Absolutelynot.

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Forsomeonewho’sbeendoggedfornotyethavingreachedhispotential,hedoesn’t

haveverymanycandlesonhisbirthdaycake.(24,tobeexact.)ChaseUtleydidn’t

evenmakehisMLBdebutuntilhewasolderthanSnideristoday.He’sanasset

already,andthere’splentyoftimeforhimtoimprove.

Thankstothemiracleofsocialmedia,wecanseetheplayers’ownreactions

tobeingtraded.ThenewBuccofirst:

@Lunchboxhero45?Apparentlyasimpletributetohisloveofeating.Icandigit.

Also,“Pittsburg”isatownof20,233inKansas.“Pittsburgh”istheCityof

Champions.Commonmistake.Won’tholditagainsthim.Yourturn,Mr.Lincoln:

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Itgetsbetter.

(LincolnII;Ithinkautocorrectturned“believe”into“beloved.”)

VeryclassyexitbyLincoln.Isurehopehe’sright.Fortherecord,Brad,Idon’thold

itagainstyouthatyou’renotTimLincecumorClaytonKershaw.

(July31:AllMerchandiseMustGoBy4p.m.)

I’mnotgoingtopretendforasecondIknowwhatNealHuntingtonistrying

todointhelasthoursbeforethenon‐waiverdeadlinearrives.It’sbeenprettymuch

ruledoutthatanyofthebignamesarecomingtothePirates,sowe’reprobably

lookingatafewminoradditions.ThecombinationofWandyandSniderisalreadya

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biggeryieldthanwhatwepickeduparoundthedeadlinein2011—addingDerrek

LeeandRyanLudwickforpracticallynothing—soanythingelseisgravy.

GabySanchez….interesting.

.202/.250/.306doesn’tsoundlikealineofaplayerthatacontendingteamwould

wanttoaddtoitsAugust/Septemberlineup.He’salsoenduredtwoseparate

demotionstoTriple‐Ain2012.Ifthisgoesthrough,we’rereallycountingonhimto

rediscoverhis2010‐2011hittingskills.

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Allright,then.Idon’tbelievethatSanchezhasforgottenhowtohit,butit’slessthan

asurethingthathisnumberswillrecovertotheirprevious“All‐Star”levels.7The

Piratesclearlybelieveineitherhimortheirownstaff’sability.

Updateonthespecificsofthedeal.

7“YougettobeanAll‐Star,[pointsatdifferentperson]andyougettobeanAll‐Star,[pointsatanotherdifferentperson],andyougettobeanAll‐Star![pointsatJamesMcDonald,RyanVogelsong,JohnnyCueto,andRyanDempster]Sorry,guys,weonlyhavesomuchspace.”

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Soauniquelynamed,butlight‐hittingdefensiveoutfielder(GorkysHernandez)and

anend‐of‐first‐rounddraftpick8foraformer“All‐Star”andaminorleaguerelief

pitcher.I’llmisswatchingGorkyssnatcheveryballintheareacodeasalate‐inning

defensivereplacement,butultimatelyhe’snotveryvaluable.Let’shopetheMarlins

don’tusethedraftpicktotakeaHallofFamer.

Timeforaworry‐relievingjoke.

8Anotherpartofthenewdraftrulesgivessmallmarketteamsandlow‐revenueteamsachancetowinoneofthesix“competitivebalance”picks,whichwillbeselections#31‐36.Unlikeregulardraftslots,thesecanbetraded.Ican’tfindanythingtocomplainabouthere.

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OzzieGuillenwantedtobeasailorwhenhewasakid,buthislanguagemadesailors

toouncomfortableandhewasforcedtoturntobaseballinstead.

I’vebeengivingJake(thefellowLincecumlover)theplay‐by‐playontoday’s

tradeactionbecausehedoesn’thaveTwitteraccessatthemoment.Heraisesa

goodpointaboutthelogisticsofbringinginSanchez.

AssumingSniderwassettobecometheeverydayrightfielder,firstbasewasgoing

tobeaplatoonofGarrettJonesandCaseyMcGehee.Nowthere’sanotherright‐

handedhittingfirstbasemaninthemix.Oristhere?

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Itbecomesofficialminuteslater.Colormeconfused.

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JonahKeri(authorofTheExtra2%andmyfavoritebaseballwriter)issimilarly

perplexed.

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Harsh,buttrue—he’sbeenterribleforthebetterpartofthelastthreeyears.2010‐

2012ERA:5.13.Ouch.

Wait,Ijustfigureditout.WewereprobablygoingtocutMcGeheeanyway,

sowe’rejustpickingupafreeplayerforhiminstead.Makesalittlemoresense

now.StillnotthrilledabouthavingChadQuallsontheroster.

Sonowwecancalltheactionfinalandappraisethemoves.Wandy=solid.

(obviously)Snider=goodintheshortterm,possiblyGREATinthelongterm.

Sanchez=whynot?Qualls=why?(butnottotallyinexplicable)Thelackofbignames

reeledinwillbenodoubtcitedbytheanti‐ownershipforcesasproofofindifference

onthefrontoffice’spart,butthat’sbecausenothingwouldsatisfythem.

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Personally,I’mprettyhappywiththeoverallresults.Wesolidifiedthe

rotation,addedacouplebats,and—mostimportantly—didn’tsacrificeanymajor

assetstodoit.AllthepiecesareinplaceforarunatOctoberbaseball.Nowpardon

mewhileIgopoundsomeAdvilandtakeanap.

ThedeadlineisgruelingonGMsandfansalike.


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