Transcript
Page 1: Demography Population trends in history Population trends in history –The demographic transition Contemporary demography Contemporary demography –The rich

DemographyDemography

Population trends in historyPopulation trends in history– The demographic transitionThe demographic transition

Contemporary demographyContemporary demography– The rich and poor world divideThe rich and poor world divide

Implications of demography for Implications of demography for societysociety

Page 2: Demography Population trends in history Population trends in history –The demographic transition Contemporary demography Contemporary demography –The rich

Population trends in Population trends in historyhistory For most of human history on For most of human history on

earth, the population was stable earth, the population was stable at about ten million people or soat about ten million people or so

It did not start to rise until about It did not start to rise until about 8000 BC and reached about 500 8000 BC and reached about 500 million in 1650million in 1650

In 1650 it began to rapidly In 1650 it began to rapidly increaseincrease

Page 3: Demography Population trends in history Population trends in history –The demographic transition Contemporary demography Contemporary demography –The rich

Why did that happen?Why did that happen?

Before 1650 mortality and fertility Before 1650 mortality and fertility rates were both high.rates were both high.

Since 1650, mortality rates fell Since 1650, mortality rates fell but fertility stayed high – hence but fertility stayed high – hence the increase in population.the increase in population.

Page 4: Demography Population trends in history Population trends in history –The demographic transition Contemporary demography Contemporary demography –The rich
Page 5: Demography Population trends in history Population trends in history –The demographic transition Contemporary demography Contemporary demography –The rich

Today world population stands at Today world population stands at 6.8 billion people6.8 billion people

So why did mortality start to So why did mortality start to decline in 1650?decline in 1650?

Page 6: Demography Population trends in history Population trends in history –The demographic transition Contemporary demography Contemporary demography –The rich

Decline of infectious diseases – Decline of infectious diseases – typhoid fever, diphtheria, scarlet typhoid fever, diphtheria, scarlet fever, TB, dysentery, typhus.fever, TB, dysentery, typhus.

Great reductions in mortality Great reductions in mortality among the young. Why?among the young. Why?

Page 7: Demography Population trends in history Population trends in history –The demographic transition Contemporary demography Contemporary demography –The rich

Improvements in Improvements in Public HealthPublic Health Better public health – especially Better public health – especially

cleaner water (without added cleaner water (without added sewerage)sewerage)

Better practices at home – use of Better practices at home – use of toilets!toilets!

Page 8: Demography Population trends in history Population trends in history –The demographic transition Contemporary demography Contemporary demography –The rich
Page 9: Demography Population trends in history Population trends in history –The demographic transition Contemporary demography Contemporary demography –The rich

Agricultural production increased Agricultural production increased in western Europe after 1650, and in western Europe after 1650, and that meant more food for people that meant more food for people and for livestock. and for livestock.

Better nutrition – more meat, Better nutrition – more meat, vegetables.vegetables.

Page 10: Demography Population trends in history Population trends in history –The demographic transition Contemporary demography Contemporary demography –The rich

Plus better practices Plus better practices at home…at home… Hand washing before eatingHand washing before eating Clothes washing – helped by Clothes washing – helped by

introduction of cotton clothesintroduction of cotton clothes Widespread use of soap in 19Widespread use of soap in 19thth

centurycentury

Page 11: Demography Population trends in history Population trends in history –The demographic transition Contemporary demography Contemporary demography –The rich

As a result, people got As a result, people got bigger…bigger…

Increase in height and life expectancy among U.S. males

Page 12: Demography Population trends in history Population trends in history –The demographic transition Contemporary demography Contemporary demography –The rich

Then something even Then something even stranger happened…stranger happened… People stopped having so many People stopped having so many

babies in the late 1800s in babies in the late 1800s in Europe, a little later in the U.S.Europe, a little later in the U.S.

Families started getting smallerFamilies started getting smaller Birth rate fell from 30-40 babies Birth rate fell from 30-40 babies

born per 1000 people before born per 1000 people before 1900 to 14.16 babies born per 1900 to 14.16 babies born per 1000 people in 2007 (U.S.)1000 people in 2007 (U.S.)

Page 13: Demography Population trends in history Population trends in history –The demographic transition Contemporary demography Contemporary demography –The rich

Photo of the Sociologist Kenneth Westhues German grandparents in 1896, posing with their first eight children in front of their antebellum American home

Page 14: Demography Population trends in history Population trends in history –The demographic transition Contemporary demography Contemporary demography –The rich

The sociologists Joseph Whitmeyer and Rosemary Hopcroft and their family, December 2009

Page 15: Demography Population trends in history Population trends in history –The demographic transition Contemporary demography Contemporary demography –The rich

Why the decline in Why the decline in fertility?fertility? Industrialization meant more Industrialization meant more

people working in industry not on people working in industry not on farmsfarms

Especially if work required Especially if work required literacy, children became more of literacy, children became more of a cost as they had to be sent to a cost as they had to be sent to school rather than helping on the school rather than helping on the farm.farm.

Page 16: Demography Population trends in history Population trends in history –The demographic transition Contemporary demography Contemporary demography –The rich

Decline in child mortality meant Decline in child mortality meant that people did not have to have that people did not have to have lots of children to make sure lots of children to make sure some survived.some survived.

Page 17: Demography Population trends in history Population trends in history –The demographic transition Contemporary demography Contemporary demography –The rich

This entire process – the fall in This entire process – the fall in death rates, followed later by the death rates, followed later by the fall in birth rates, is called the fall in birth rates, is called the demographic transition.demographic transition.

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Stages of the Stages of the demographic demographic transitiontransition

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Contemporary Contemporary DemographyDemography Many non-European countries Many non-European countries

have gone through a have gone through a demographic transition in the last demographic transition in the last 50 years.50 years.

Fertility is now quite low in most Fertility is now quite low in most of the world except Africa.of the world except Africa.

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Page 21: Demography Population trends in history Population trends in history –The demographic transition Contemporary demography Contemporary demography –The rich

Countries that have high fertility Countries that have high fertility rates contribute rates contribute disproportionately to the growth disproportionately to the growth in world population.in world population.

Page 22: Demography Population trends in history Population trends in history –The demographic transition Contemporary demography Contemporary demography –The rich
Page 23: Demography Population trends in history Population trends in history –The demographic transition Contemporary demography Contemporary demography –The rich

The rich and poor The rich and poor world divideworld divide In poor countries, men can expect In poor countries, men can expect

to live until they are 63.5 years to live until they are 63.5 years old, women can expect to live old, women can expect to live until they are 67.5until they are 67.5

In rich countries, men can expect In rich countries, men can expect to live until they are 73.5 and to live until they are 73.5 and women until they are age 80.women until they are age 80.

Page 24: Demography Population trends in history Population trends in history –The demographic transition Contemporary demography Contemporary demography –The rich

People in poor countries are most People in poor countries are most likely to die of infectious diseases, likely to die of infectious diseases, people in rich countries are most people in rich countries are most likely to die of heart disease and likely to die of heart disease and cancer.cancer.

Page 25: Demography Population trends in history Population trends in history –The demographic transition Contemporary demography Contemporary demography –The rich

A population pyramid shows the A population pyramid shows the number of people in different age number of people in different age and sex groups in a populationand sex groups in a population

Population pyramids in poor Population pyramids in poor countries look like pyramidscountries look like pyramids

Population pyramids in rich Population pyramids in rich countries look like postscountries look like posts

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Page 27: Demography Population trends in history Population trends in history –The demographic transition Contemporary demography Contemporary demography –The rich

Implications of Implications of demography for demography for societysociety A young society works very A young society works very

differently to an old society.differently to an old society. Many young people mean many Many young people mean many

jobs catering to the young (e.g. jobs catering to the young (e.g. education)education)

Many old people mean many jobs Many old people mean many jobs catering to the elderly (e.g. catering to the elderly (e.g. nursing homes)nursing homes)

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The U.S. had a fairly youthful The U.S. had a fairly youthful population in the 1950s and population in the 1950s and 1960s due to the baby boom.1960s due to the baby boom.

Page 29: Demography Population trends in history Population trends in history –The demographic transition Contemporary demography Contemporary demography –The rich
Page 30: Demography Population trends in history Population trends in history –The demographic transition Contemporary demography Contemporary demography –The rich

As the baby boomers age and As the baby boomers age and retire beginning in 2010, there retire beginning in 2010, there will be a large group of elderly will be a large group of elderly people in U.S. societypeople in U.S. society

This is likely to strain programs This is likely to strain programs for the elderly such as Social for the elderly such as Social Security and MedicareSecurity and Medicare

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Other implications of Other implications of demography…demography… Age and sex structure is also Age and sex structure is also

important in small groups such as important in small groups such as workplacesworkplaces

Groups where the average age is Groups where the average age is younger operate differently to younger operate differently to groups where the average age is groups where the average age is olderolder

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Population growth can have Population growth can have adverse effects on the adverse effects on the environmentenvironment

It is a concern for the world, It is a concern for the world, because we do not know how because we do not know how many people, at what standard of many people, at what standard of living, the world can bear.living, the world can bear.

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Immigration tends to bring people Immigration tends to bring people from poor countries into rich from poor countries into rich countriescountries

Generally this is not a problem in Generally this is not a problem in good economic timesgood economic times

In bad economic times, anti-In bad economic times, anti-immigration sentiment is the immigration sentiment is the likely resultlikely result

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Demography and the Demography and the democratic processdemocratic process In any democracy, any group that In any democracy, any group that

is in the majority tends to is in the majority tends to dominate the democratic processdominate the democratic process

E.g. large numbers of older E.g. large numbers of older people generally mean that people generally mean that politicians pay attention to politicians pay attention to policies that benefit the aged.policies that benefit the aged.


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