Transcript
Page 1: Dr Vivienne Ivory Principal Urban Scientist, Opus International Consultants - speaking at Seismics and the City 2014
Page 2: Dr Vivienne Ivory Principal Urban Scientist, Opus International Consultants - speaking at Seismics and the City 2014
Page 3: Dr Vivienne Ivory Principal Urban Scientist, Opus International Consultants - speaking at Seismics and the City 2014

What would it take to get you into the central city?

Creating agile evidence for rebuild decision-makers

Seismic & the City 2014

Dr Vivienne IvoryOpus Research

Page 4: Dr Vivienne Ivory Principal Urban Scientist, Opus International Consultants - speaking at Seismics and the City 2014

• How to sustain Christchurch over the recovery phase?

• How can research inform the recovery phase?

Virtual experiment.

Natural experiment

It’s going to take a while, so…

Page 5: Dr Vivienne Ivory Principal Urban Scientist, Opus International Consultants - speaking at Seismics and the City 2014

‘Virtual’ experiment – faced with a scenario of moving to the central city, what is most important to your quality of life?

• Neighbourhood priorities?

• Dwelling priorities?

• Would they stay?

Trying something different (part 1)

Page 6: Dr Vivienne Ivory Principal Urban Scientist, Opus International Consultants - speaking at Seismics and the City 2014

Neighbourhood priorities?: what is most important to your quality of life?

Trying something different (part 1)

Page 7: Dr Vivienne Ivory Principal Urban Scientist, Opus International Consultants - speaking at Seismics and the City 2014

• Dwelling priorities?: what is most important to your quality of life?

Trying something different (part 1)

Change in dwelling options over rebuild

Valu

e se

lect

ed (1

-5)

Increasingly rebuilt central

city

Page 8: Dr Vivienne Ivory Principal Urban Scientist, Opus International Consultants - speaking at Seismics and the City 2014

Would they choose to stay?

Response to the ‘virtual’ experiment

Page 9: Dr Vivienne Ivory Principal Urban Scientist, Opus International Consultants - speaking at Seismics and the City 2014

• Content based on current evidence:

– quality of life,

– healthy neighbourhoods,

– mobility patterns

• Needs haven’t changed

• Willing to try alternatives?

What factors could affect uptake?

Surprised? Not really

Page 10: Dr Vivienne Ivory Principal Urban Scientist, Opus International Consultants - speaking at Seismics and the City 2014

Household diversity

Page 11: Dr Vivienne Ivory Principal Urban Scientist, Opus International Consultants - speaking at Seismics and the City 2014

Affordability advantage

Final stage selected by dwelling cost ‘experience’

Page 12: Dr Vivienne Ivory Principal Urban Scientist, Opus International Consultants - speaking at Seismics and the City 2014

Participants responded with an urban lifestyle

• Local travel

• Reduced car trips

• Everyday needs met locally (food, recreation, socialising)

Lifestyle advantage

Page 13: Dr Vivienne Ivory Principal Urban Scientist, Opus International Consultants - speaking at Seismics and the City 2014

Balancing dwelling and neighbourhood features

Changes in satisfaction with living environment over rebuild stages

Satisfaction (10=very satisfied)

Increasingly rebuilt central

city

Page 14: Dr Vivienne Ivory Principal Urban Scientist, Opus International Consultants - speaking at Seismics and the City 2014

‘Natural’ experiment

Trying something different (part 2)

Page 15: Dr Vivienne Ivory Principal Urban Scientist, Opus International Consultants - speaking at Seismics and the City 2014

Changing where business takes place

Page 16: Dr Vivienne Ivory Principal Urban Scientist, Opus International Consultants - speaking at Seismics and the City 2014

Changing where business takes place

Page 17: Dr Vivienne Ivory Principal Urban Scientist, Opus International Consultants - speaking at Seismics and the City 2014

Changing where business takes place

Page 18: Dr Vivienne Ivory Principal Urban Scientist, Opus International Consultants - speaking at Seismics and the City 2014

Changing where business takes place

Page 19: Dr Vivienne Ivory Principal Urban Scientist, Opus International Consultants - speaking at Seismics and the City 2014

Changing where business takes place

Page 20: Dr Vivienne Ivory Principal Urban Scientist, Opus International Consultants - speaking at Seismics and the City 2014

Changing what business takes place here

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20130

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160 Russley: trends for business units 2000-2013

Manufacturing

Construction

Wholesale Trade

Financial and In-surance Services

Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services

Professional, Scien-tific and Technical Services

Num

ber o

f bus

ines

s un

its

Page 21: Dr Vivienne Ivory Principal Urban Scientist, Opus International Consultants - speaking at Seismics and the City 2014

Changing what business takes place here

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20130

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100Phillipstown: trends for business units 2000-2013

Manufacturing

Construction

Wholesale Trade

Financial and In-surance Services

Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services

Professional, Scien-tific and Technical Services

Num

ber

of b

usin

ess

units

Page 22: Dr Vivienne Ivory Principal Urban Scientist, Opus International Consultants - speaking at Seismics and the City 2014

• Business continuity > adaption

• But now? ‘normal location factors???– Broadband and other business infrastructure

– Personal amenity value – family & friends, attractive environments, social scene

– Accessibility for employees, trade

– Agglomeration (dependent on sector, size of city, etc)

A surprising response?

Page 23: Dr Vivienne Ivory Principal Urban Scientist, Opus International Consultants - speaking at Seismics and the City 2014

• How much adaptability can business & the city take?

• Implications for business in novel settings?

• And for their ‘hosting’ neighbourhoods?

Will location matter over the recovery?

Page 24: Dr Vivienne Ivory Principal Urban Scientist, Opus International Consultants - speaking at Seismics and the City 2014

Long-term trends

Earthquake period

Short-term recovery Long-term

reconstruction

Trends over time Flows within the city and beyond

Dynamics of economic recovery:

Page 25: Dr Vivienne Ivory Principal Urban Scientist, Opus International Consultants - speaking at Seismics and the City 2014

• What needs to be put

in place now for the

future vision

• Maintaining business

& households in

atypical

environments

• To be continued…

How can Christchurch meet those needs as the city keeps changing?

Neighbourhood infrastructure

Residential sector

‘Local’ commercial

sector

Page 26: Dr Vivienne Ivory Principal Urban Scientist, Opus International Consultants - speaking at Seismics and the City 2014