Enhancing communication with farmers
Peter Hayman Australia
Communication
• “the extension program could not begin because the loud hailers have not yet arrived” Cited by N. Rölling (1988)
• Communication is “the reciprocal construction and clarification of meaning by interacting people” not the one way flow of a signal.
An innovation – new way of solving an old problem
• An innovation presents uncertainty – is it appropriate for my long term self interest to adopt or reject ?
• I might seek information, trial, wait and see or adopt with the option of future rejection.
• Information – knowledge is different to an embedded technology like a seed
Empowering farmers & their advisers to tell agrometeorology what they see as
important for agriculture
• Communicating – dialoguing – discussing – arguing
• Dancing in the Rain – farmers and agricultural scientists in a variable climate
• Risk only makes sense in the mind and culture of the decision maker
Realizing the potential of climate prediction to agriculture
Hansen (2002) Ag Systems 74: 309-330
1. A need that is real and perceived by decision makers
2. Forecast of appropriate parameter with sufficient accuracy and lead time
3. Decision options that can use forecast
4. Effective communication between climate science and decision maker
5. Institutional commitment and favourable policies
Realizing the potential of climate prediction to agriculture
1. A need that is real and perceived by decision maker
2. Forecast of appropriate parameter with sufficient accuracy and lead time
3. Decision options that can use forecast
4. Effective communication between climate science and decision maker
5. Institutional commitment and favourable policies
Meteorological equivalent of double helix
• Science's gift to the 21st Century. Glantz• The New Green Revolution. Cited in Hansen 2002
We have a mis-matchEasterling 1999 Making Seasonal Climate Forecasts Matter
• Forecasts of climate based on the interactions between the oceans and the atmosphere is one of the premiere advances of the atmospheric science at the close of the 20th century.
• Seasonal climate forecasts are ill suited to decision making and decision making is ill suited to seasonal climate forecasts
Strong El nino signal leads to higher variability + some prediction
Categorical forecasts If_Then_Else
• IF the season is going to be dry - THEN plant wheat & chickpeas ELSE – canola
• IF the season is going to be wet - THEN increase stocking rate ELSE – normal stocking rate
Farmers have always known what to do with an accurate
forecast• “when more records are available, an accurate
forecast can probably be made for a considerable period in advance….. for if it be known that a succession of dry seasons are due, understocking the country must be resorted to, and its reverse when damp seasons are to follow”
• John Barling 1902
Strong El nino signal leads to higher variability + some prediction
April to October rain in 12 El Nino years
Footprint of each one is different
A farmer might get 6 in their lifetime
More El Nino events than bad droughts
El Nino is increased risk of drought
The challenge of communicating skilful but uncertain forecastsCategorical SCF would be simpler – but
everything should be made as simple as possible but no simpler (Einstein)
Best understood as a random sampling of a distribution
Why we need probabilities1. It is honest to be clear about the
uncertainties.
Laplace “Probability refers in part to our knowledge and in part to our ignorance”
2. Probabilities encourage risk management
The belief in, and acceptance of, a range of alternative outcomes.
Using forecasts to know which way to lean not jump
• If the end point is better risk management, misunderstanding forecasts as categorical will result in poorer risk management than if people never heard of the forecast
• We know enough for you to adjust your risk management, not abandon it.
Communicating probability is hard
• “Farmers have said they want to know whether it is likely to be dry, wet or average, not whether there is a 60% chance of getting 40% of the average rainfall”
• Mumbling so that can never be wrong
However …....
• People deal with uncertainty all the time - buy shares, get married, live on fault line, plant crops, buy cattle
• Is it that people are not used to hearing about uncertainty from scientists ?
Average season
34%
Good season
33%
Poor season
33%
Winter in Tamworth
< 266 mm> 340 mm
Average season
27%
Poor season
53%
Good season
20%
Average season
29%
Good season
52%
Poor season
19%
June - Nov when April May SOI phase is negative or rapidly rising
El Nino June to Oct Nov - Feb Next June to OctWinter growing season Summer growing season Following winter
231
144
141233
144
231
Many ways of talking about probabilities
• Time series
• Frequency
• Drawing straws – sweets from a bag
Risky Decisions
• Choice Consequence
• IF you use X rate of fertiliser you will get Y yield
• Choice chance consequences• If you use X rate of fertiliser, depending on
the season, you will get Y(1) Y(2) Y(3)
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