Transcript
Page 1: EPAs New Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Model: Applying technology to support the Presidents climate change initiative 2010 Environmental Information Symposium

EPA’s New Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Model: Applying technology to support the President’s

climate change initiative

2010 Environmental Information Symposium

Steve ZieglerMay 12, 2010

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Agenda

Challenge Model Results

•Oil crisis•CAFE standard1970s

•EPA CAA Tier 1•CA Low Emission Vehicle1990s

•EPA CAA Tier 2•CA sues EPA2000s

•EPA estimated mileage•Phase out leaded gasoline1980s

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Challenge Different standards

• Fuel economy vs. emissions• State vs. Federal

Pollutant EmissionsGHG Emissions

Corporate AverageFuel Economy

CA & Others:Pollutant Emissions

GHG Emissions

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Presidential Initiative

May 2009 – President Obama announces tighter fuel efficiency standards

• Priority public policy initiative

• Push for new national standard

• Fuel economy & GHG emissions

31% Mobile Sources

U.S. GHG Emissions In 2007

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Team

Office of Transportation and Air Quality• Policy• Subject matter expertise• Model approach• Inputs and post processing

ICF• Expertise in CAFE and fuel consumption modeling• Model approach• Model development

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Model Overview

OMEGA

.NET DesktopModel

Optimization Model for reducing Emissions of Greenhouse gases from Automobiles

(OMEGA)

Scenario

Market

Technology

Fuels

Reference

Various output files and formats

<xml/>

txt

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Manufacturer #1

Model Approach – Technology Selection

295

Manufacturer #2

CO2 (g/mi) 347 CO2 (g/mi)

Technologies

1 FLAT

2 Pumping

3 Hybrid

4 Plug-in

$

$

$$

$$$1

1

1

1

2

2

2

3 1

1

2

2

1 2 3 1

1

2

21 2 3

1 2 3 1 2

267 281243 250

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Model Approach – Changes In FuelManufacturer #1

295

Manufacturer #2

CO2 (g/mi) 347 CO2 (g/mi)267 281243 250Gasoline

Diesel

Electricity

G

G

G

G

G

G

G

D G

D

D

D

D

GG +

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Model – Selection Logic

TARF – Technology Application Rating Factor• Choose the least expensive technology • Choose the most cost effective (most CO2 reduction for the

least expense) based on the consumer’s estimated actual mileage

• Choose the most cost effective (most CO2 reduction for the least expense) based on EPA mileage estimates

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Results

National program • 2012-2016

• Average 250 CO2 (g/mi) / 35.5 MPG by 2016

• Automakers have clear, standardized targets

• Estimated $1,100 increase in vehicle price

• Estimated $3,000 in fuel savings during the vehicle lifetime

“A supposedly ‘unsolvable’ problem was solved by

unprecedented partnerships.” – Lisa P. Jackson, EPA

"At the end of the day, what's most important is that we have a single, national standard that is achievable, but that is aggressive and cost-

effective." - Charles Territo, Auto Alliance

“This program lessons our dependence on oil and is good for America and good for the planet.”

– Ray LaHood, DOT

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Results

Forecasted benefits (2012-2016)• 960M metric tons of CO2

• 1.8B barrels of oil

EPA was able to play leadership role in driving a priority public policy initiative

Saving annual electricity

for 117M homes

Preserving 9M acres of forest from deforestation

Removing annual emissions

from 249 coal power plants