Transcript
Page 1: Hourly Updated NOAA NWP Models

WMO/WWRP WorkshopUse of NWP for Nowcasting

25 October 2011

Evaluation of the 3-km High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) as Nowcast

Guidance

NOAA/ESRL/GSDCurtis Alexander, Steve Weygandt,

Stan Benjamin, David Dowell, Eric James, Patrick Hofmann,

Tanya Smirnova, Ming Hu, and John Brown

Page 2: Hourly Updated NOAA NWP Models

Hourly Updated NOAA NWP Models

13km Rapid Refresh

(mesoscale)

13km RUC (mesoscale)

3km HRRR (storm-scale)

RUC – current oper Model, new 18h fcst every hour

High-Resolution Rapid Refresh Experimental 3km nest inside RR, new 15-h fcst every hour

Rapid Refresh (RR) replaces RUC at NCEP in 2011 WRF, GSI with RUC features

Page 3: Hourly Updated NOAA NWP Models

Spring 2011 Hourly HRRR Initialization from RR

HourlyRR

LateralBoundaryConditions

Interp to 3 km grid

HourlyHRRR

15-h fcst

Initial Condition

Fields

11 z 12 z 13 z

Time (UTC)

AnalysisFields

3DVARObs

3DVARObs

Back-groundFields

18-h fcst 18-h fcst

1-hrfcst

DDFI DDFI

1-hrfcst

18-h fcst

1-hrfcst

Interp to 3 km grid

15-h fcst

Use 1-h old LBC

to reducelatency

Use most recent IC (post-DFI)

to get latest radar info

Reduced Latency:

~2h for 2011

Page 4: Hourly Updated NOAA NWP Models

NOAA/ESRL/GSD/AMB Models

Model Version Assimilation Radar DFI Radiation Microphysics Cum

Param PBL LSM

RUC N/A RUC-3DVAR Yes RRTM/Dudhia Thompson Grell-

DevenyiBurk-

Thompson RUC

RRWRF-ARW v3.2+

GSI-3DVAR Yes RRTM/Goddard Thompson G3 +

Shallow MYJ RUC

HRRRWRF-ARWv3.2+

None: RR I.C. No RRTM/

Goddard Thompson None MYJ RUC

Model Run at: Domain Grid Points

Grid Spacing

Vertical Levels

Vertical Coordinate

Boundary Conditions Initialized

RUC GSD, NCO CONUS 451 x

337 13 km 50 Sigma/ Isentropic NAM Hourly

(cycled)

RR GSD,EMC

North America

758 x 567 13 km 50 Sigma GFS Hourly

(cycled)

HRRR GSD CONUS 1799 x 1059 3 km 50 Sigma RR Hourly

(no-cycle)

Page 5: Hourly Updated NOAA NWP Models

NOAA/ESRL/GSD/AMB Models

Model Version Assimilation Radar DFI Radiation Microphysics Cum

Param PBL LSM

RUC N/A RUC-3DVAR Yes RRTM/Dudhia Thompson Grell-

DevenyiBurk-

Thompson RUC

RRWRF-ARW v3.2+

GSI-3DVAR Yes RRTM/Goddard Thompson G3 +

Shallow MYJ RUC

HRRRWRF-ARWv3.2+

YesMultiple Radar DA

ExperimentsRRTM/

Goddard Thompson None MYJ RUC

Model Run at: Domain Grid Points

Grid Spacing

Vertical Levels

Vertical Coordinate

Boundary Conditions Initialized

RUC GSD, NCO CONUS 451 x

337 13 km 50 Sigma/ Isentropic NAM Hourly

(cycled)

RR GSD,EMC

North America

758 x 567 13 km 50 Sigma GFS Hourly

(cycled)

HRRR GSD CONUS 1799 x 1059 3 km 50 Sigma RR Hourly

(no-cycle)

Page 6: Hourly Updated NOAA NWP Models

HRRR Milestones• Inception over northeastern US

Sept 2007• Integration into CoSPA: Aviation Users

Spring 2008• Domain expansion to eastern US

Mar 2009• HCPF time-lagged ensemble inception May

2009• HRRR WRF-ARW updated to v3.1.1

Oct 2009• Domain expansion to CONUS

Oct 2009• HRRR WRF-ARW updated to v3.2

Apr 2010• Forecast period extended to 15 hrs

Apr 2010• Real-time multi-scale reflect. verification June

2010• Parallel (shadow) retrospective system Sept

2010• Attained ~95% reliability

Jun 2010• Reduced latency to ~2 hrs

Dec 2010

Page 7: Hourly Updated NOAA NWP Models

HRRR (and RR) Future Milestones• Conversion of all output to GRIB2 format

Apr 2011• Transition from RUC to RR parent model

Apr 2011• DOE-funded HRRR FTP site for energy industry May

2011• Update to WRF-ARW v3.3.1

Nov 2011• Rapid Refresh operational at NCEP

Dec 2011• Reflectivity data assimilation at 3 km scale 2012• Incorporate SatCast products at 3 km scale 2012• Assimilate Radial Velocity at 3 km scale

2012• HRRR demo @ESRL improves

2012-2014• Ensemble Rapid Refresh (NARRE) at NCEP

2014• HRRR operational at NCEP

2015?• Ensemble HRRR (HRRRE) at NCEP

2016?

Page 8: Hourly Updated NOAA NWP Models

Some HRRR users and applicationsAviation Weather Center (AWC): 2-D gridsFederal Aviation Administration (FAA) Command CenterNational Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR): 2-D, 3-D, 15-min grids

Operational evaluation in CoSPAStorm Prediction Center (SPC): 2-D grids

Operational severe weather forecasting and evaluationNational Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL): 2-D, 3-D and 15-min grids

Mesoscale analysis, Short-term precipitation forecastsNational Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP): 15-min grids

Real Time Mesoscale Analysis (RTMA)Bonneville Power Administration (BPA): 3-D grids

Real-time forecasts of turbine-level wind and solar irradianceColorado State University (CSU/CIRA): 2-D grids

Verification of solar irradiance forecasts at SURFRAD sitesNumerous private sector companiesAir Resources Laboratory (ARL): Tiled 3-D HRRR grids

Dispersion forecasts, Local wind forecasts in complex terrainNational Weather Service (NWS): 2-D and 3-D grids

Operational weather forecastingUnited States Air Force (USAF): 2-D grids

Operational weather forecasting

Severe Weather

Aviation

Renewable Energy

Forecasting

Page 9: Hourly Updated NOAA NWP Models

Model Configurations

HRRRPrimary

CoSPA

NCEPESRL/GSD

RRDev

RUCDev

RUCBackup

RRPrimary

HRRRDev

RUCOper

RREMC

RRDev2

Page 10: Hourly Updated NOAA NWP Models

Blending Radar Nowcasts and HRRR Forecasts for AviationCoSPA: Collaborative effort: ESRL/GSD, NCAR/RAL, MIT/LL

Provide 0-8 hr thunderstorm intensity and echo top guidance to aviation community

HRRR 15 UTC 08 July 20116 hr forecast valid 21 UTC

VIL

Echo

Top

CoSPA 17 UTC 08 July 20114 hr forecast valid 21 UTC

ObservationValid 21 UTC 08 July 2011

Blend with CIWS

Page 11: Hourly Updated NOAA NWP Models

Blending Radar Nowcasts and HRRR Forecasts for AviationCoSPA: Collaborative effort: ESRL/GSD, NCAR/RAL, MIT/LL

Provide 0-8 hr thunderstorm intensity and echo top guidance to aviation community

HRRR 15 UTC 08 July 20116 hr forecast valid 21 UTC

VIL

Echo

Top

CoSPA 17 UTC 08 July 20114 hr forecast valid 21 UTC

VerificationValid 21 UTC 08 July 2011

Blend with CIWS

CSI 0.20Bias 1.30

Eastern US30 dBZ threshold40 km grid

Page 12: Hourly Updated NOAA NWP Models

Verification of RUC/RR (parent) vs HRRRCold Season (1 Jan 2011 – 14 April 2011)

RUC vs HRRRLeadTime Clouds Precip

(13 km)Reflectivity

(40 km) Upper-Air Surface

Ceiling < 500 ft

Vis < 0.5 mile

> 0.1 inch

> 1.0 inch 25 dBZ 35 dBZ Temp RH Wind Temp Dewpt Wind

1-hr HRRR HRRRN/A N/A

Equal HRRR HRRR Equal HRRR HRRR RUC HRRR3-hr HRRR HRRR Equal HRRR HRRR RUC Equal N/A N/A N/A6-hr HRRR HRRR HRRR HRRR HRRR RUC Equal HRRR RUC HRRR

Warm Season (15 April 2011 – 25 October 2011)RR vs HRRR

LeadTime Clouds Precip

(13 km)Reflectivity

(40 km) Upper-Air Surface

Ceiling < 500 ft

Vis < 0.5 mile

> 0.1 inch

> 1.0 inch 25 dBZ 35 dBZ Temp RH Wind Temp Dewpt Wind

1-hr HRRR RRHRRR Equal

HRRR HRRR HRRR HRRR HRRR RR RR HRRR3-hr HRRR HRRR HRRR HRRR HRRR HRRR RR Equal RR Equal6-hr HRRR HRRR HRRR HRRR HRRR HRRR RR HRRR Equal Equal

Page 13: Hourly Updated NOAA NWP Models

HRRR Verification < 500 ft ceiling, 6-hr forecasts

TSS (3 day averages)

HRRR consistently beats the RUC(cold season)

HRRRRUCHRRR-RUC

HRRRRRHRRR-RR

HRRR consistently beats the RR(warm season)

HRRRbetterRUC/RRbetter

Page 14: Hourly Updated NOAA NWP Models

HRRR Verification < 0.5 mi visibility, 6-hr forecasts

TSS (7 day averages)

HRRR consistently beats the RUC(cold season)

HRRRRUCHRRR-RUC

HRRRRRHRRR-RR

HRRR consistently beats the RR(warm season)

HRRR betterRUC/RRbetter

Page 15: Hourly Updated NOAA NWP Models

HRRR Verification 10 m wind, 6-hr forecasts

RMS (3 day averages)

HRRR consistently beats the RUC

(cold season)

HRRRRUCHRRR-RUC

HRRRRRHRRR-RR

HRRR nearly equal to RR

(warm season)

RUC/RR betterHRRR better

Page 16: Hourly Updated NOAA NWP Models

HRRR VerificationUpper-Air Wind, 6-hr forecasts

RMS

HRRR and RUC nearly equal(cold season)

HRRRRUCHRRR-RUC

HRRRRRHRRR-RR

RR consistently beats the HRRR(warm season)

HRRR better RUC better HRRR better RR better

Page 17: Hourly Updated NOAA NWP Models

HRRR VerificationPrecipitation, 24-hr (2x12) forecasts

15 April – 25 October 2011

HRRRRRRUC

HRRR consistently beats the RR/RUC(warm season)

| | | | | | | |0.01 0.10 0.25 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 3.00 in

Threshold

CSI13 km

BIAS13 km

Optimal

Threshold

| | | | | | | |0.01 0.10 0.25 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 3.00 in

Page 18: Hourly Updated NOAA NWP Models

HRRR VerificationReflectivity, All Forecasts

25 dBZ CSI40 km

HRRR consistently beats the RUCAt 4+ hrs (cold season)

HRRRRUCHRRR-RUC

HRRRRRHRRR-RR

HRRR consistently beats the RR(warm season)

HRRR betterRUC/RRbetter

Page 19: Hourly Updated NOAA NWP Models

HRRR VerificationReflectivity, All Forecasts

35 dBZ CSI

HRRR consistently beats the RUC(cold season)

HRRRRUCHRRR-RUC

HRRRRRHRRR-RR

HRRR consistently beats the RR(warm season)

HRRRbetterRUC/RRbetter

Page 20: Hourly Updated NOAA NWP Models

HRRR – wintertime forecast applications

IFRLIFR MVFR

Excellent skill for low ceiling / visibility

|--------VFR-------------

Page 21: Hourly Updated NOAA NWP Models

HRRR – wintertime forecast applications

IFRLIFR MVFR

Excellent skill for low ceiling / visibility

|--------VFR-------------

LIFRLIFR

IFR

IFRVFR

VFR

MVFR

MVFR

Page 22: Hourly Updated NOAA NWP Models

Very good skill for small-scale details in strongly forced

convection andprecipitation

HRRR – wintertime forecast applications

NSSL reflectivity08z Jan. 17, 2010

HRRR 8h fcst.

Page 23: Hourly Updated NOAA NWP Models

Surface obs08z Jan. 17, 2010

HRRR – wintertime forecast applicationsGood skill for small-scale terrain-related details

60 F60 F

Page 24: Hourly Updated NOAA NWP Models

HRRR Reflectivity VerificationEastern US, Reflectivity > 25 dBZ

11-20 August 2011

Reflectivity DA in RR/RUC increases HRRR forecast skillHRRR bias depends strongly on parent model

CSI 40 km

RUC->HRRR RadarRR->HRRR Radar

RR->HRRR No RadarRUC->HRRR No Radar

RR->HRRR RadarRR->HRRR No RadarRUC->HRRR RadarRUC->HRRR No Radar

BIAS 03 km

Optimal

Page 25: Hourly Updated NOAA NWP Models

00 hr HRRR forecasts

RR – No radar data RR – Radar data

Obs00z 12 August 2011

Page 26: Hourly Updated NOAA NWP Models

01 hr HRRR forecasts

ObsObs

RR – No radar data RR – Radar data

01z 12 August 2011

Page 27: Hourly Updated NOAA NWP Models

RR – No radar data RR – Radar data

Reflectivity00z 12 August 201100 hr forecasts

Convergence Cross-Section

Page 28: Hourly Updated NOAA NWP Models

RR – No radar data RR – Radar data

Convergence Cross-Section

Reflectivity01z 12 August 201101 hr forecasts

Page 29: Hourly Updated NOAA NWP Models

80-km

valid (GMT)valid (EDT)

00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 8p 10p 12 2a 4a 6a 8a 10a 12 2p 4p 6p

“neighborhood” verification of 6-hforecasts from 3-km HRRR

verification:10 June – 26 Sept 2010

40-km

20-km

25 dBZ6-h fcst

3-km

Many caseAll init times

Page 30: Hourly Updated NOAA NWP Models

80-km

valid (GMT)valid (EDT)

00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 8p 10p 12 2a 4a 6a 8a 10a 12 2p 4p 6p

“neighborhood” verification of 6-hforecasts from 3-km HRRR

verification:10 June – 26 Sept 2010

ConvectiveInitiation

period

40-km

20-km

25 dBZ6-h fcst

3-km

Initi

atio

n

Page 31: Hourly Updated NOAA NWP Models

80-km

valid (GMT)valid (EDT)

00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 8p 10p 12 2a 4a 6a 8a 10a 12 2p 4p 6p

“neighborhood” verification of 6-hforecasts from 3-km HRRR

verification:10 June – 26 Sept 2010

ConvectiveInitiation

period

40-km

20-km

25 dBZ6-h fcst

3-km

ConvectiveDecayperiod

Initi

atio

n

Dec

ay

Page 32: Hourly Updated NOAA NWP Models

80-km

valid (GMT)valid (EDT)

00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 8p 10p 12 2a 4a 6a 8a 10a 12 2p 4p 6p

“neighborhood” verification of 6-hforecasts from 3-km HRRR

verification:10 June – 26 Sept 2010

ConvectiveInitiation

period

40-km

20-km

25 dBZ6-h fcst

3-km

ConvectiveDecayperiod

Tran

sitio

n

Initi

atio

n

Dec

ay

Page 33: Hourly Updated NOAA NWP Models

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Time-lagged ensembleModel InitTime Example: 15z + 2, 4, 6 hour HCPF

Forecast Valid Time (UTC)11z 12z 13z 14z 15z 16z 17z 18z 19z 20z 21z 22z 23z

13z+412z+511z+6

13z+612z+711z+8

13z+812z+911z+10

HCPF2 4 6

18z 17z 16z 15z 14z

13z12z11z

Model runs used

model has 2h latency

Page 34: Hourly Updated NOAA NWP Models

Spatio-temporal scale of probabilities?

Probability of convection at fixed point in space/time is very smalleven during summer afternoons in the southeastern US

Horizontal Scale Time Window Probability > 40 dBZ

O(1 km ) O(1 min)O(<< 1%)

O(10 km) O(10 min)O(1 %)

O(100 km) O(100 min)O(30%)

Page 35: Hourly Updated NOAA NWP Models

Spatio-temporal scale of probabilities?

Observed convection nearAtlanta, GA

22 UTC 26 October 2010

3 hr forecast valid 21 UTC 26 October 4 hr forecast valid 22 UTC 26 October

Same model runat different valid times

Page 36: Hourly Updated NOAA NWP Models

Spatio-temporal scale of probabilities?

Observed convection nearAtlanta, GA

22 UTC 26 October 2010

3-4 hr forecast valid 21-22 UTC 4-5 hr forecast valid 22-23 UTC

Use a 2 hr time window

Page 37: Hourly Updated NOAA NWP Models

Spatio-temporal scale of probabilities?

Observed convection nearAtlanta, GA

22 UTC 26 October 2010

3-4 hr forecast valid 21-22 UTC 4-5 hr forecast valid 22-23 UTC

Then applyspatial filter:90 km radiusshown here

Page 38: Hourly Updated NOAA NWP Models

Reliability vs Resolution/SharpnessLogistic regression using various observation time windows for calibration

Parameter choices:3 members (2 hr lag youngest member)Fixed 2 hr time windowFixed 60 km spatial filter1.0 m/s updraft velocity detection threshold

P(convection) = [1 + exp(-z)]-1

z = B0 + B1x1 + B2x2 + B3x3

where Bi are the regressed weightsand xi are the predictors (HRRR member forecasts)

Obtain reliability while preserving resolutionProbabilities constrained between 0 and 1

Page 39: Hourly Updated NOAA NWP Models

The HRRR and HCPF

Confidence Probabilities and Deterministic

Valid 23z 16 July 2010

Page 40: Hourly Updated NOAA NWP Models

The HRRR and HCPF

Confidence Probabilities and Deterministic

Valid 23z 16 July 2010

Page 41: Hourly Updated NOAA NWP Models

Updraft helicity fromfour consecutive HRRR runs 13-16 UTC (color coded by run)

Tornado ReportsUp to valid time(red dots)

HRRR Severe Weather Forecasts Tornado Outbreak KS/OK10 May 2010

Page 42: Hourly Updated NOAA NWP Models

Updraft helicity probabilityFour consecutive HRRR runs (13-16 UTC)

Time-bracket of 2-hrs45 km search radius

HRRR Severe Weather Forecasts Tornado Outbreak KS/OK10 May 2010

Page 43: Hourly Updated NOAA NWP Models

43

Summary• HRRR now initialized by the RR as of 14 April 2011

• Parallel (shadow) HRRR-dev will demo 2012 candidate changes in

real-time and/or retrospective runs:

- WRF v3.3.1- MYNN PBL scheme- Shallow convective param- Satcast product- Soil moisture nudging- 3-km radar radial

velocity assimilation- 3-km radar reflectivity

assimilation- Refined 13-km Radar-DFI

• HCPF development

• Research Regular HRRRat NESSC as duplicate source

Targeting improved convective initiationforecastsTargeting improved convective maintenanceforecastsTargeting confidenceof convective forecastsTargeting improved reliability of HRRR

}}}}

Page 44: Hourly Updated NOAA NWP Models

HRRR Precipitation ForecastTONIGHT

13UTC 25 October 2011 Run14 hr Fcst Valid 03 UTC (9 p.m.) 15 hr Fcst Valid 04 UTC (10 p.m.)

Rain in Boulder Snow in Boulder

How much? See Steve Weygandt’s Talk @ 3:30 p.m.


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