Alberto Alfonzo & Tugberk TanrisevdirEconomic Development and International

PoliticsINAF 100

What factors affect the odds of winning the African Cup of Nations?

How do these factors affect?

We expect: Host Nations to be more probable to win the

Tournament, GDP Per Capita (Constant US$ 2005) to have a

positive effect on the chances of winning, Urban Population Percentage to have a positive

impact on winning the Cup. On the other hand, the Total Population to have a negative effect.

Independent Variables

Dependent Variables

GDP Per Capita (Constant 2005 US$)

Chance of winning ACN

Home Advantage

Total Population

Urban Population Percentage

We studied these factors on every country that reached the Semifinals and Finals of the CAN, from 1962 to 2012.

We created a new variable “Points per Tournament” to control for in which position countries finished in the tournament.

We ran regressions in order to find significant relationships between our independent and dependent variables.

Home Advantage 11 countries which hosted the ACN won the

title out of 29 tournaments.

GDP Per Capita (Constant 2005 US$)

For the 7 latest tournaments of CAN, we observed that 5 out of 7 times: countries with higher GDP Per Capita won.

2000 1) Cameroon

2) Nigeria 3) South Africa

Result

GDPPC 868,1227604 678,5861554585 4652,3388083 YES/NO

2002 1) Cameroon

2) Senegal 3) Nigeria Result

GDPPC 895,6460436 701,7336937042 675,55899580 YES

2006 1) Egypt 2) Ivory Coast 3) Nigeria Result

GDPPC 868,1227604 1251,971990746 831,78868940 NO

2004 1) Tunisia 2) Morocco 3) Nigeria Result

GDPPC 868,1227604 1910,193407139 783,07388692 NO

2008 1) Egypt 2) Cameroon 3) Ghana Result

GDPPC 1456,565676 926,4843849723 570,36368375 YES

2010 1) Egypt 2) Ghana 3) Nigeria Result

GDPPC 1550,064093 610,1836567963 972,54617876 YES/NO

2012 1) Zambia 2) Ivory Coast 3) Mali Result

GDPPC 798,2602435 936,3859404089 476,44467831 NO

Urban Population Percentage

For the 7 latest tournaments of CAN, we observed that 3 out of 7 times: countries with higher Urban Population Percentage won.

Egypt, whose Urban Population Percentage was lower than its opponents', won 3 times.

Total Population

For the 7 latest tournaments of CAN, we observed that 4 out of 7 times: countries with more Total Population won.

Egypt, whose Total Population was higher than its opponents', won 3 times.

Home Advantage does not have a positive effect as we expected.

GDP Per Capita does have a positive impact on the chances of winning the CAN, as we expected.

As for Total Population and Urban Population Percentage, the results are erratic. Therefore we cannot reach a conclusion yet.