Download ppt - Integrated Distributed Energy Systems (IDES)

Primary Focus:

Electricity Network Infrastructure

with a Clean Renewable Emphasis

RENEWABLE CHALLENGES WIND

SOLAR

WIND

HYDRO

BIOMASS

IDES-10 SIMULATION MODEL

WIND POWER RESULTS

WIND POWER RESULTS

30 year Lifecycle Cost Comparison of Wind Turbines of Various Sizes (1-9kW = 18m Tower & 10-12kW = 32m

Tower), with an Annual Average Wind Speed of: 6.63m/s, Assuming Surplus Generation (Grid Purchase - Wind-

power Exported) Sold at Different Fixed Prices

$200,000

$210,000

$220,000

$230,000

$240,000

$250,000

$260,000

$270,000

$280,000

$290,000

$300,000

123456789101112

Wind-turbine system size (kW)

Lifecycle cost over 30 years

Grid (Lifecycle)

No net-metering / exporting

Net-metered + 2.0c/kWh




PV MODEL PARAMETERSMONTH,M / YEAR,Y

SOLAR SETTING: MIN / AVG / MAX ?MINY

GRID PRICE OVER LIFETIME C/KWHSOLAR+GRID C/KWHSOLAR ONLY C/KWH

$0.1503$0.2443$0.3942

Annual Electricity ConsumptionLOAD PROFILES:22,202.32kWh/year

Maximum DemandHOUSE B8.57kW

DEMAND VARIABLE FACTORHOUSE C1(Multiple)

WHICH TYPE OF LOAD PROFILE ?HOUSE DBCD(Profile)

WHICH DEMAND REGION ? HOUSES B & C & Dch(Region) - ch only

WHICH WEATHER REGION ?REGIONS:KU(Region)

SOLAR SYSTEM SIZE (kW)CH=CHRISTCHURCH10kW

SOLAR SYSTEM LIFETIMEAU=AUCKLAND30Years

SOLAR SYSTEM COST FACTORKA=KAITAIA1(%/100)

SOLAR SYSTEM TOTAL COSTGI=GISBORNE$5,000$/kWNZ COST EST.$9,315

SOLAR SYSTEM EFFICIENCYNP=NEW PLYMOUTH0.12(%/100): e.g. 0.15 = 15%

GRID SUPPLY COST FACTORPN=PALMERSTON N1.00(%/100): e.g. 1.065 = 6.5% inc.

NET-METERING RETURN FACTORWE=WELLINGTON1(%/100):{0 to 1}

GRID SUPPLY INFLATION RATENE=NELSON1.00E-02(%/100): e.g. 0.02 = 2%, 1E-11 = 0%

Capital Interest Rate: 0, 5, 10 or 15%WP=WESTPORT7%

O&M Costs over lifetime: %capital costQU=QUEENSTOWN0.02(%/100): e.g. 0.02 = 2% capital cost

Capital Cost and Interest RepaymentDU=DUNEDIN20YearsBALANCE OF PAY

Payback Period (Fixed - calculated)IN=INVERCARGILLMORE THAN 40Years-$62,610

Return Over Lifetime (negative = loss)KU=KUMEROA-$62,609.73$-38.5%

TARIFF 1: DAY (07:00 - 22:30) - c/kWh10.2cents/kWh

TARIFF 2: NGT (23:00 - 06:30) - c/kWh8.8cents/kWh

TARIFF 3: FIXED - $/day0.745342466$/day

TARIFF 4: VARIABLE - cents/max KVA/day0cents/max KVA/day

TARIFF 5: EARLY PAY DISCOUNT0%

MICRO-HYDRO MODEL PARAMETERS MONTH,M / YEAR,Y

Hydro SETTING: MIN / AVG / MAX ?AVGY

GRID PRICE OVER LIFETIME C/KWHHydro+GRID C/KWHHydro ONLY C/KWH

$0.1288$0.1132$0.0733

Annual Electricity Consumption LOAD PROFILES:22,202.32kWh/year

Maximum Demand

HOUSE B

8.57kW

DEMAND VARIABLE FACTOR

HOUSE C

1(Multiple)AVERAGE FLOW RATE

WHICH TYPE OF LOAD PROFILE ?

HOUSE D

BCD(Profile)M3/S/YR0.068

WHICH DEMAND REGION ?

HOUSES B & C & D

ch(Region) - ch only

WHICH WEATHER REGION ?REGIONS:KU1(Region)Hydro Size Adjustment

Hydro SYSTEM SIZE (kW)

CH=CHRISTCHURCH

1.001.00009.5353Factor0%

Hydro SYSTEM LIFETIME (YEARS)

AU=AUCKLAND

30MAX KW / YRPEAK POTENTIAL KW

Hydro SYSTEM COST FACTOR

KA=KAITAIA

100%

Hydro SYSTEM TOTAL COST

GI=GISBORNE

$10,000per kW$15,402Available Head of Water

Average Hydro SYSTEM EFFICIENCY

NP=NEW PLYMOUTH

50%Total Capital CostHead (m)13.5

GRID SUPPLY COST FACTOR

PN=PALMERSTON N

1(%/100): e.g. 1.065 = 6.5% increase in Grid Price

NET-METERING RETURN FACTOR

WE=WELLINGTON

1(%/100):{0 to 1} CHOOSE TURBINE

GRID SUPPLY INFLATION RATE

NE=NELSON

1.00E-02(%/100): e.g. 0.02 = 2%: 1E-11 = 0% inflation NZ

Capital Interest Rate: 0, 5, 10 or 15%

WP=WESTPORT

7%

100% FLOW.

TURBINE TYPE

O&M Costs over lifetime: %capital cost

QU=QUEENSTOWN

0.02(%/100): 0.02 = 2% capital cost87%K = KAPLAN

Capital Cost and Interest Repayment

DU=DUNEDIN

20Years57%F = FRANCIS

Payback Period (Fixed - calculated)

IN=INVERCARGILL

20.46YearsRTN ON INVEST87%PR = PROPELLOR

Return Over Lifetime (negative = loss)

KU1=KUMEROA BASIC

$10,402.83$54.02%81%PE = PELTON

TARIFF 1: DAY (07:00 - 22:30) - c/kWh

KU2=KUMEROA DETAILED

10.2cents/kWh78%T = TURGO

TARIFF 2: NGT (23:00 - 06:30) - c/kWh 8.8cents/kWh79%CF = CROSSFLOW

TARIFF 3: FIXED - $/day 0.745342466$/day92%O = OTHER

TARIFF 4: VARIABLE - cents/max KVA/day 0cents/max KVA/day50%NZ = KIWI MAKE

TARIFF 5: EARLY PAY DISCOUNT 0%EFF.

% kWh (Delivered)PVWINDM/HCHPLifecycle Cost

0.00%0000$0

21.70%0010$21,882

43.30%0020$39,387

60.80%0030$52,516

71.90%0040$61,269

80.00%0050$65,645

81.80%0060$78,359

82.30%0070$90,936

84.00%0150$99,296

85.20%0160$112,010

87.20%0250$120,573

88.10%0260$133,287

89.70%0350$138,804

96.00%0061$155,276

98.40%0062$166,291

99.40%0063$174,803

99.80%0064$182,486

100.00%0065$189,842

OPTIMUM DG SIMULATION RESULTS

OPTIMUM DG SIMULATION RESULTS

TOTAL LOAD

HEAT-ENGINE MODEL PARAMETERSHEAT-ENGINEHEAT-ENGINE 222,023

GRID PRICE OVER LIFETIME C/KWH & GRID C/KWHONLY C/KWHHEAT CONST.HEATING LOAD

$0.1169$0.1140$0.21500.3192,966

Annual Electricity ConsumptionLOAD PROFILES:DOM222,023.23kWh/yearMISC LOAD

Maximum Demand

HOUSE B

85.69kW129,058

DEMAND VARIABLE FACTOR

HOUSE C

10(Multiple)SYS $ / KWDIESEL(DIE)

WHICH TYPE OF LOAD PROFILE ?

HOUSE D

BCD(Profile)$1,100NATURAL GAS(GAS)

WHICH DEMAND REGION ?

HOUSES B+C+D

ch(Region) - ch onlyCNG(CNG)

% HEAT INCREASE / DECREASE FACTOR (KUMEROA) -19%KW / UNITLPG(LPG)

TOTAL SIZE (kW)1kW1PETROL(PET)

OP CAPACITY100%BIOFUEL(BIO)

CAPITAL COST FACTOR1(%/100)HYDROGEN(HYD)

FUEL COST: CENTS/KWH (BEFORE CONVERSION) 4.8cents/kWhBIOFUEL TYPE

FUEL COST FACTOR1(%/100)

% HEAT RECOVERY90%: set at 100% for HEAT-ENGINE

HEAT RECOVERY COST$0.01$/kWh: set at 0$/kWh for HEAT-ENGINE

GRID SUPPLY COST FACTOR1(%/100): e.g. 1.065 = 6.5% increase in Grid Price

NET-METERING RETURN FACTOR1(%/100):{0 to 1}

GRID SUPPLY INFLATION RATE1.00E-02(%/100): e.g. 0.02 = 2%: 1E-11 = 0% inflation

FUEL SUPPLY INFLATION RATE1.00E-11(%/100): e.g. 0.02 = 2%: 1E-11 = 0% inflation

HEAT RECOVERY INFLATION RATE1.00E-11(%/100): e.g. 0.02 = 2%: 1E-11 = 0% inflation

Capital Interest Rate: 0, 5, 10 or 15% 7%20YRS LOAN REPAID

Lifetime: (set @ 40,000hours)40,000hours31.31LIFETIME IN YRS

Payback Period (Fixed - calculated)5.76YearsROI

Return Over Lifetime (negative = loss)$19,799.95$2.5%

O&M % OF CAPITAL

TARIFF 1: DAY (07:00 - 22:30) - c/kWh 10.2cents/kWh10%

TARIFF 2: NGT (23:00 - 06:30) - c/kWh 8.8cents/kWhNo.of UnitsCapacity

TARIFF 3: FIXED - $/day 0.745342466$/day1100% [Total: A+B]

TARIFF 4: VARIABLE - c/max KVA/dy 0c/max KVA/dy1100% [A capacity]

TARIFF 5: EARLY PAY DISCOUNT 0%00% [B capacity]

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Percentage Contribution

towards the Load

M/H:

500kW

M/H:

200kW

M/H: 100kWM/H:

100kW,

STR:

300kWh

WTG:

100kW

DSM:

500kWh,

WTG:

100kW

DSM:

500kWh,

WTG:

100kW,

SHW: 100x4

DSM:

500kWh,

WTG:

200kW,

SHW: 100x4

DSM:

500kWh,

PV: 100kW

DSM:

500kWh,

PV: 100kW,

CHP: 50kW

Scenario

10 Different Energy Supply and Demand Management Scenarios - Contributions to the Load

10

12345

6

789

10

12345

6

789

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%


towards the Load

M/H: 500kWM/H: 200kWM/H: 100kWM/H: 100kW,

STR:

300kWh

WTG: 100kWDSM:

500kWh,

WTG: 100kW

DSM:

500kWh,

WTG: 100kW,

SHW: 100x4

DSM:

500kWh,

WTG:

200kW,

SHW: 100x4

DSM:

500kWh, PV:

100kW

DSM:

500kWh, PV:

100kW, CHP:

50kW

Scenario


10.Grid Electricity

9.Energy Storage

8.Cogen Heating

7.Cogen Electricity

6.PV Electricity

5.Wind Electricity

4.Micro-hydro Electricity

3.Space Heating Reduction

2.Solar Water Heating

1.Energy Load Transfer

IDES SCENARIOS FOR 100 HOMES

IDES SCENARIOS FOR 100 HOMES

M/H: M/H: M/H: M/H: WIND: WIND: WIND: WIND: PV: PV:

500KW 200KW 100KW 100KW100KW100KW100KW200KW 100KW 100KW

STORE: DSM: DSM: DSM: DSM: DSM:

300KWH 500KWH 500KWH500KWH500KWH500KWH

SHW: SHW: CHP:

100X4m2 100X4m250KW

COST OF EACH IDES SCENARIO

COST OF EACH IDES SCENARIO

$0

$1,000,000

$2,000,000

$3,000,000

$4,000,000

$5,000,000

$6,000,000

$7,000,000

Cost of Energy Contributions


STR:

300kWh

WTG: 100kWDSM:

500kWh,

WTG: 100kW

DSM:

500kWh,

WTG:

100kW,

SHW: 100x4

DSM:

500kWh,

WTG:

200kW,

SHW: 100x4

DSM:

500kWh, PV:

100kW

DSM:

500kWh, PV:

100kW,

CHP: 50kW

Scenario

10 Different Energy Supply and Demand Management Scenarios - Contributions to Cost

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%


towards the Load


STR:

300kWh

WTG: 100kWDSM:

500kWh,

WTG: 100kW

DSM:

500kWh,

WTG: 100kW,

SHW: 100x4

DSM:

500kWh,

WTG:

200kW,

SHW: 100x4

DSM:

500kWh, PV:

100kW

DSM:

500kWh, PV:

100kW, CHP:

50kW

Scenario


10.Grid Electricity

9.Energy Storage

8.Cogen Heating

7.Cogen Electricity

6.PV Electricity

5.Wind Electricity

4.Micro-hydro Electricity

3.Space Heating Reduction

2.Solar Water Heating

1.Energy Load Transfer

10

12345

6

789

10

12345

6

789

M/H: M/H: M/H: M/H: WIND: WIND: WIND: WIND: PV: PV:

500KW 200KW 100KW 100KW100KW100KW100KW200KW 100KW 100KW

STORE: DSM: DSM: DSM: DSM: DSM:

300KWH 500KWH 500KWH500KWH500KWH500KWH

SHW: SHW: CHP:

100X4m2 100X4m250KW

GRID-ONLY REFERENCE

SIMULATIONS OPTIMIZER RESULTS

SIMULATIONS OPTIMIZER RESULTS

25-year Lifecycle Costs for Delivering a Certain Percentage of the Total Domestic kWh Requirement

$0

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

$700,000

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%

Percentage of Total Domestic kWh Energy Requirement Delivered

25-year Lifecycle Cost

Improving Return on Investment

The ROI from a 25 -year fixed-term loan is not the

optimum available for the ten scenarios described.

Fixed-term loans force repayment of borrowings

over longer periods than the minimum possible for

different scenarios.

This forces the borrower to pay extra interest and

reduces potential earnings (ROI) .

Revolving loans are the key to managing the

financial risks associated with energy supply from

distributed renewable generation .

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Return on Investment (ROI) %

Scenario 1Scenario 2Scenario 3Scenario 4Scenario 5Scenario 6Scenario 7Scenario 8Scenario 9Scenario

10

Scenario Number

Comparison of the ROI for each Scenario using: (a) 25-year Fixed-Term Loan and (b) Flexible

Revolving Loan, with a 7% Capital Interest Rate and a 2% / Year Grid Price Increase

Fixed-Term

Revolving Loan

FIXED

FIXED

-

-

TERM VS. REVOLVING LOAN ROI

TERM VS. REVOLVING LOAN ROI

Revolving Loan Key Features

The Combines the transactional freedom of a

business operational account with a business loan.

Revenues generated by the business can be

deposited directly into this account, while

operational expenses can be withdrawn directly (at

the same time) up to a preset safety limit.

Provides flexibility with repaying and redrawing the

original business loan up to the safety limit, giving

the ability to reduce the loan faster.

Financial risks associated with daily fluctuations in

renewable energy supply and customer demand can

be easily managed by recalculating outstanding

interest payments on a daily basis.

REVOLVING LOAN BENEFITS

REVOLVING LOAN BENEFITS

0

5

10

15

20

25

Loan Repayment Period (Years)

Scenario 1Scenario 2Scenario 3Scenario 4Scenario 5Scenario 6Scenario 7Scenario 8Scenario 9

Scenario Number

Comparison of the Loan Repayment Period for each Scenario using: (a) 25-year Fixed-Term

Loan and (b) Flexible Revolving Loan, with a 7% Capital Interest Rate and a 2% / Year Grid

Price Increase

Fixed-Term

Revolving Loan

HYBRID GRID

HYBRID GRID

-

-

INTEGRATED MODELS

INTEGRATED MODELS

COST COMPONENT SYSTEM CAPACITY $AU COST FACTOR

TOTAL COST ON-SITE POWER N/A

NET LIFETIME GAIN (POWER ONLY) ON-SITE POWER 0.80

NET LIFETIME GAIN (CHP+WASTE UTILIZED) ON-SITE POWER N/A

NET LIFETIME GAIN (CHP) ON-SITE POWER 0.80

Value of wasted H2 produced if sold ON-SITE POWER 0.80

Value of wasted surplus wind power if sold ON-SITE POWER 0.80

Wind Turbine - BUY & INSTALL (KW) 231.4 0.80

Wind Turbine - O&M ON-SITE POWER 0.80

Wind Turbine Power Conditioner Capital Cost (KW) 219.5 0.80

Wind Turbine Power Conditioner O&M Cost (KW) ON-SITE POWER 0.80

H2 Production - Wind Power Cost ON-SITE POWER 0.80

Electrolyser H2 Production - BUY & INSTALL 1300.0 0.80

Electrolyser H2 Production - O&M ON-SITE POWER 0.80

H2 Compression & Storage (H2 CAP. - KWH) 1812.3 0.80

Wind load cost discount ON-SITE POWER 0.80

Fuel Cell (KW(ELECTRICITY)) - Capital Cost 200.0 0.80

Fuel Cell (KW(ELECTRICITY)) - O&M Cost ON-SITE POWER 0.80

Fuel Cell (KW(ELECTRICITY)) - Stack Replacement Cost ON-SITE POWER 0.80

Fuel Cell heat production (KW(HEAT)) 159.1 0.80

Fuel Cell Power Conditioner Capital Cost (KW) 189.8 0.80

Fuel Cell Power Conditioner O&M Cost (KW) ON-SITE POWER 0.80

Grid Purchase - line fixed cost ON-SITE POWER 0.80

Grid Purchase - line capacity cost (KW) 489.7 0.80

Grid Purchase - energy cost ON-SITE POWER 0.80

Dispersed Wind power delivery cost ON-SITE POWER 0.80

LIFECYCLE COST ($) % COST

-$12,593,822.90 -100.0%

-$3,036,486.39 -24.11%

-$3,036,486.39 -24.11%

-$3,036,486.39 -24.11%

$0.00 0.00%

$0.00 0.00%

-$381,947.41 -3.03%

-$42,438.60 -0.34%

-$57,287.22 -0.45%

-$26,203.30 -0.21%

$0.00 0.00%

-$1,931,879.82 -15.34%

-$723,612.87 -5.75%

-$161,321.00 -1.28%

$0.00 0.00%

-$1,320,000.00 -10.48%

-$614,609.13 -4.88%

-$880,000.00 -6.99%

$0.00 0.00%

-$51,955.31 -0.41%

-$24,191.07 -0.19%

$0.00 0.00%

$0.00 0.00%

-$6,378,377.18 -50.65%

$0.00 0.00%

(1) DEMAND FACTOR (MULTIPLIER) CAPITAL INTEREST (%) IMPORTANT:

1.00000 7.0% FUEL CELL

(2) DEMAND OFF-SET (IN KWHRS) TURBINE SIZE (kW) STACK REPLACED

-200.00 230.0 EVERY 5,000 HRS

SELECTED FUEL CELL H2 CAP. (KW) NO. OF TURBINES OF OPERATION

400.0 1 ONLY

FUEL CELL POWER CAP. FACTOR (AVG CAP. / MAX CAP.) TOWER HEIGHT (METRES)

2.9% 50 NOTE:

MAX. FUEL CELL H2 CAP. (KW) - REGRD SUPPLY SHORTFALL WIND SPEED MODIFIER (%) CAPACITY

401.8 0.0% SETTINGS FOR

SELECTED ELECTROLYSER POWER CAP. (KW) WIND SPEED (M/S) - CHECK HEIGHT BELOW FC, ELECTRO.,

1,300.0 7.35 H2 STORE MUST

ELECTROLYSER H2 CAP. FACTOR (AVG CAP. / MAX CAP.) WIND SPEED HEIGHT MEASUREMENT (METRES) NOT EXCEED MAX

5.5% 30.0 FC HRS / YEAR

MAX. ELECTROLYSER POWER CAP. (KW) AVG GRID / DIESEL ETC. PRICE (c/kWh) 525

211.1 25.00

SELECTED H2 ENERGY STORED (KWh) FIXED WIND SALES PRICE (c/kWh)

10,000.00 25.00

H2 ENERGY STORAGE CAP. FACTOR (AVG CAP. / MAX CAP.) TRANS. REBATE R.E.COST / KWH

3.4% 0.0% -$0.455

MAX. H2 ENERGY STORED (KWh) MAX DEMAND (kW)

1,812.3 479.94 LOAD FACTOR

H2 STORE & COMPRESS ($/kWh) MIN DEMAND (kW) 47%

$0.106 7.21

MAXIMUM GRID POWER (KW) ANNUAL DEMAND (kWh) % FROM R.E.s

472.7 1,966,743 34.7%

TOTAL GRID POWER REQUIRED / YEAR (KWH) TOTAL RE SUPPLY DELIVERED (KWH) % R.E. FROM H2

1,312,565 654,178 6.9%

TOTAL ANNUAL H2 PRODUCED (KWH) TOTAL ANNUAL H2 USED (KWH) % H2 UTILISED

95,288.8 95,288.8 100.0%

ANNUAL GRID INFLATION (%) LIFECYCLE COST W/O GRID

2.0% -$6,215,446

FUEL CELL POWER ($/kWh) GRID SAVED (LIFE)

$3,973,699

FUEL CELL HEAT SALES PRICE ($/kWh)

$0.00

FUEL CELL HEAT RECOVERY ($/kWh) CAP. COST W/O GRID (LIFE)

$0.00 -$4,784,391

H2 PRODUCED OVER LIFETIME (KWH)

1,905,776

W/O GRID POWER PURCHASE:

H2 WASTED OVER LIFETIME (KWH(H2) / LIFE) % CAP. / LIFECYCLE COSTS

0 77%

VALUE OF H2 WASTED ($/kWh) ECONOMIES OF SCALE

$0.00 DISCOUNT FACTOR FOR:

ANNUAL H2 PRICE INFLATION (%) FUEL CELL SYSTEM

-10.00% 1.00

LIFETIME VALUE OF H2 WASTED (NZ$) FUEL CELL STACKS

$0.00 1.00

SYSTEM LIFE-TIME (YEARS) REF. ECONOMIES OF SCALING

20 FACTOR FOR BOTH THE

SURPLUS WIND POWER WASTED (KWH / LIFE) FC SYSTEM AND STACKS

0.00 0.69

SURPLUS WASTED WIND PRICE (c/kWh)

0.00 STACK BUY DELAY

VALUE OF SURPLUS WIND POWER WASTED DISCOUNT FACTOR

$0.00 0.50

VALUE OF GRID POWER SUPPLIED BY RE / YR TIME FRAME:

$163,544 12

TOTAL ANNUAL H2 STORED (KWH) MONTHS FROM NOW

95,288.8 (FROM APR 2001)




























-$12,593,822.90 -100.0%

-$3,036,486.39 -24.11%

-$3,036,486.39 -24.11%

-$3,036,486.39 -24.11%

$0.00 0.00%

$0.00 0.00%

-$381,947.41 -3.03%

-$42,438.60 -0.34%

-$57,287.22 -0.45%

-$26,203.30 -0.21%

$0.00 0.00%

-$1,931,879.82 -15.34%

-$723,612.87 -5.75%

-$161,321.00 -1.28%

$0.00 0.00%

-$1,320,000.00 -10.48%

-$614,609.13 -4.88%

-$880,000.00 -6.99%

$0.00 0.00%

-$51,955.31 -0.41%

-$24,191.07 -0.19%

$0.00 0.00%

$0.00 0.00%

-$6,378,377.18 -50.65%

$0.00 0.00%




























-$12,593,822.90 -100.0%

-$3,036,486.39 -24.11%

-$3,036,486.39 -24.11%

-$3,036,486.39 -24.11%

$0.00 0.00%

$0.00 0.00%

-$381,947.41 -3.03%

-$42,438.60 -0.34%

-$57,287.22 -0.45%

-$26,203.30 -0.21%

$0.00 0.00%

-$1,931,879.82 -15.34%

-$723,612.87 -5.75%

-$161,321.00 -1.28%

$0.00 0.00%

-$1,320,000.00 -10.48%

-$614,609.13 -4.88%

-$880,000.00 -6.99%

$0.00 0.00%

-$51,955.31 -0.41%

-$24,191.07 -0.19%

$0.00 0.00%

$0.00 0.00%

-$6,378,377.18 -50.65%

$0.00 0.00%


1.00000 7.0% FUEL CELL


-200.00 230.0 EVERY 5,000 HRS


400.0 1 ONLY


2.9% 50 NOTE:




1,300.0 7.35 H2 STORE MUST


5.5% 30.0 FC HRS / YEAR


211.1 25.00


10,000.00 25.00


3.4% 0.0% -$0.455


1,812.3 479.94 LOAD FACTOR


$0.106 7.21


472.7 1,966,743 34.7%


1,312,565 654,178 6.9%


95,288.8 95,288.8 100.0%


2.0% -$6,215,446


$3,973,699


$0.00


$0.00 -$4,784,391


1,905,776



0 77%




-10.00% 1.00


$0.00 1.00




0.00 0.69




$0.00 0.50


$163,544 12


95,288.8 (FROM APR 2001)


1.00000 7.0% FUEL CELL


-200.00 230.0 EVERY 5,000 HRS


400.0 1 ONLY


2.9% 50 NOTE:




1,300.0 7.35 H2 STORE MUST


5.5% 30.0 FC HRS / YEAR


211.1 25.00


10,000.00 25.00


3.4% 0.0% -$0.455


1,812.3 479.94 LOAD FACTOR


$0.106 7.21


472.7 1,966,743 34.7%


1,312,565 654,178 6.9%


95,288.8 95,288.8 100.0%


2.0% -$6,215,446


$3,973,699


$0.00


$0.00 -$4,784,391


1,905,776



0 77%




-10.00% 1.00


$0.00 1.00




0.00 0.69




$0.00 0.50


$163,544 12


95,288.8 (FROM APR 2001)

HYBRID GRID

HYBRID GRID

-

-

INTEGRATED

INTEGRATED

ROTTNEST SITE ASSUMPTIONS

ROTTNEST SITE ASSUMPTIONS

1,966,743kWh

1,966,743kWh

ANNUAL DEMAND (kW)

ANNUAL DEMAND (kW)

7.21kW

7.21kW

MIN DEMAND (kW)

MIN DEMAND (kW)

479.94kW

479.94kW

MAX DEMAND (kW)

MAX DEMAND (kW)

7.35m/s

7.35m/s

AVERAGE ANNUAL WIND SPEED (M/S)


65m (600kW) or 50m

65m (600kW) or 50m

(230kW)

(230kW)

TOWER HEIGHT (METRES)


7%

7%

CAPITAL INTEREST (%)


25kW

25kW

200kW

200kW

FUEL CELL SIZE ( KW (ELECTRIC) )


1,000kWh

1,000kWh

10,000kWh

10,000kWh

HYDROGEN STORAGE SIZE ( KWH (H2) )


100kW

100kW

1,300kW

1,300kW

ELECTROLYSER SIZE ( KW ( ELECTRIC) )


1 x 600kW or 8 x 230kW

1 x 600kW or 8 x 230kW

WIND TURBINE CAPACITY (KW)


1.00

1.00

FUEL CELL ECONOMIES OF SCALING FACTOR APPLIED


12

12

SYSTEM PURCHASED X MONTHS FROM APRIL 2001


20

20

SYSTEM LIFE

SYSTEM LIFE

-

-

TIME (YEARS)

TIME (YEARS)

1,966,743kWh

1,966,743kWh

ANNUAL DEMAND (kW)

ANNUAL DEMAND (kW)

7.21kW

7.21kW

MIN DEMAND (kW)

MIN DEMAND (kW)

479.94kW

479.94kW

MAX DEMAND (kW)

MAX DEMAND (kW)

7.35m/s

7.35m/s



65m (600kW) or 50m

65m (600kW) or 50m

(230kW)

(230kW)



7%

7%



25kW

25kW

200kW

200kW



1,000kWh

1,000kWh

10,000kWh

10,000kWh



100kW

100kW

1,300kW

1,300kW



1 x 600kW or 8 x 230kW

1 x 600kW or 8 x 230kW



1.00

1.00



12

12



20

20

SYSTEM LIFE

SYSTEM LIFE

-

-

TIME (YEARS)

TIME (YEARS)

Projected Cost Variables

With regard to future price projections, models and

algorithms have been developed which consider

historical fuel prices, the consumer price index and other

associated inflation reflective indices, historical

electricity prices, production progress cost reductions,

economies of production, and economies of scale .

The production progress cost reduction is associated

with learning/progress curves.

A learning curve describes the phenomenon by which the

time per cycle to perform a particular task decreases as

the number of repetitions of the task increases.

Typically, the effect is strongest when a single product is

produced in a single factory by the same manufacturer).

Economies of Manufacturing,

Economies of Scale

Economies of manufacturing or production

represent another means by which per unit

production costs can be reduced, and are not

necessarily directly related to production progress

curves. This type of cost reduction is a function of

the production rate, which allows the plant to

leverage indirect costs more efficiently.

Economies of scale cost reductions are based on

real manufacturers costs per unit projections for

bulk orders of different modular technologies, and

costs per kW projections for modules of increasing

size.

Summary of Model Functions and

Capabilities: Resource Data

Regionalrenewable energy data input solar, wind,

hydro, biomass or fuel resource supply data for any

region in the country, from a single house location

to a region or an island or the entire country.

Regional historical renewable energy resource

analysis this uses whatever historical data is

available to determine the best and worst case

scenarios over a system s lifetime.

Renewable energy resource type especially solar,

wind, hydro and biomass in annual, monthly, daily,

hourly or half -hourly increments.

Type of load profile any type of demand profile may

be used, and the shape and size of this profile may be

modified in the model.

Size of load profile any size can be modelled.

Regional load profile data individual household,

cluster of houses, commercial business, industrial

complex, GXP demand level, or aggregated GXP

demand level up to total national demand level.


Capabilities: Profile Data


Capabilities: Cost Data

Type of Capital cost (including installation where

necessary) and interest repayment period include

amortized costingsfor any time period and any interest rate

and loan.

Scale-adjusted capital cost any adjustment can be

considered.

O&M cost considered as a percentage of the capital

purchase cost or the capital and installation cost or as a

cents/kWh value for fuel -driven DES applications etc.

Lifecycle cost considering capital purchase, installation,

O&M, labour, and any other fixed and running costs

applicable.


Capabilities: Grid Supply Data

Grid supply cost, including for example, the following options:

Six 4-hourly weekday energy tariffs and six 4 -hourly weekend tariffs,

half-hourly wholesale GXP prices, fixed and variable line charges,

Average line replacement costs, average line operating and

maintenance costs,

Maximum distribution capacity costs, coincident distribution cap acity

costs, metering costs, average retail, distribution and transmis sion

costs for different network regions,

Variable electricity price inflation rates and fuel price inflat ion rates,

transmission capacity reduction rebates,

Variable DES tariffs which are independent of the grid supply co sts,

consideration of on -site and dispersed power production issues with

respect to both grid supply and DES supply,

And export-metering factor to account for variable

returns from exporting surplus electricity generated

back to the grid.

Examples of Grid Supply Costs

Average charges for the consumer group: e.g.

10cents/kWh, anytime.

True multi-part tariffs (with separate fixed, variable

and TOU charges): e.g. (a) domestic tariff; and, (b)

industrial tariff:

MANAGING VARIABLE HEAT SUPPLY

MANAGING VARIABLE HEAT SUPPLY

(AN EXAMPLE)

(AN EXAMPLE)

Typical IDES Winter Heat Load Profile for a Community

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

0:001:303:004:306:007:309:00

10:3012:0013:3015:0016:3018:0019:3021:0022:30

Time of Day

Energy Supply (kWh)

Cogen (Heat)

Solar Hot Water

Conservation

IDES Planning Process

Collect reliable data on electricity use patterns,

resource data and technical options for improving

energy efficiency or load profiles.

Project future energy requirements.

Calculate the costs and electrical -load impacts of

the demand -side options.

Design an optimum integrated distributed supply

plan that satisfies least -cost economic and

environmental impacts.

Compare the costs with the impacts of

conventional electricity supply options.

Implement the least -cost strategy.

IDES Definition

An Integrated Distributed Energy System is a distributed

electrical energy system which services a local energy load,

and is connected in parallel to a conventional supply (which

may be a grid supplied distribution system, or a diesel

gensetetc. It may include electrical generation and heat

capture, and electrical and heat storage.

The four key characteristics of IDES are they are:

Integratedembedding renewable and sustainable supply

technologies with existing infrastructure.

Distributedmatching small-scale supply and use (