NCEP Update

“Where America’s Climate, Weather and Ocean Services Begin”

21st Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/17th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

August 1, 2005Washington, DC

Dr. Stephen LordDirector, Environmental Modeling Center/NCEP

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• Define NCEP• Programmatic Advancements• Service Centers• Modeling• Summary

Overview

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Define NCEP

• Expanding Mission• “From the Sun to the Sea”

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NCEP Supports the NOAA Seamless Suite of Climate Weather and Ocean Products

Mission: NCEP delivers analyses, guidance, forecasts and warnings for weather, ocean, climate, water, land surface and space weather to the nation and the world. NCEP provides science-based products and services through collaboration with partners and users to protect life and property, enhance the nation’s economy and support the nation’s growing need for environmental information.

Space Environment Center

Storm Prediction Center

Aviation Weather Center NCEP Central Operations Climate Prediction Center Environmental Modeling Center Hydrometeorological Prediction Center Ocean Prediction Center

Tropical Prediction Center

Vision: Striving to be America’s first choice, first alert and preferred partner for climate, weather and ocean prediction services.

Organization: Central component of NOAA’s National Weather Service

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What Does NCEP Do?

Model Development, Implementation and Applications for Global and Regional Weather, Climate, Oceans and now Space WeatherInternational Partnerships in Ensemble ForecastsData Assimilation including the Joint Center for Satellite Data AssimilationSuper Computer, Workstation and Network Operations

“From the Sun to the Sea”

• Solar Monitoring, Warnings and Forecasts• Climate Forecasts: Weekly to Seasonal to Interannual• El Nino – La Nina Forecast• Weather Forecasts to Day 7• Hurricanes, Severe Weather, Snowstorms, Fire Weather• Aviation (Turbulence, Icing)• High Seas Forecasts and Warnings

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Programmatic Advancements

• Future Location• Computing Capability• Product generation summary• Entering the age of air quality prediction

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NCEP’s Future Location

Current LocationNOAA Science Center

World Weather BuildingCamp Springs

New LocationNOAA Center for

Weather and Climate PredictionUMD Research Park, College Park

(FY08)

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NCEP’s Future Location

NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction

UMD Research Park, College Park(FY08)

National Weather Center (NWC)Norman, Oklahoma

NWS -Storm Prediction Center (SPC)

OAR-National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL)

DOC/DOD/DOT-WSR-88D

Radar Operations Center (ROC)

NWS – Warning Decision Training Branch (WDTB)

NWS -Weather Forecast Office (WFO)

Occupancy Summer 2006

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•Receives Over 123 Million Global Observations Daily•Sustained Computational Speed: 1.485 Trillion Calculations/Sec•Generates More Than 5.7 Million Model Fields Each Day•Global Models (Weather, Ocean, Climate)•Regional Models (Aviation, Severe Weather, Fire Weather)•Hazards Models (Hurricane, Volcanic Ash, Dispersion)•3.2x upgrade operational on January 25, 2005•Backup in Fairmont, WV operational January 25, 2005

Computing Capability

Commissioned/Operational IBM Supercomputer in Gaithersburg, MD (June 6, 2003)

$26.4M/Year $26.4M/Year InvestmentInvestment

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0

5000000

10000000

15000000

20000000

25000000

JUL JAN JUL JAN JUL JAN JUL JAN

Num

ber o

f Mon

thly

Hits

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Popularity of NCEP Models Web Page

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Space Environment Center• SEC formally joined NCEP/NWS/NOAA on January 9

– Their addition helps foster a seamless suite of operational products from the “Sun to the Sea”

• R&D to operations structure makes them a natural fit• Linkage of SEC products to other more traditional NWS and

NCEP products (e.g., aviation, climate)• Service/Science linkage offers many

exciting challenges for future growth to insure the delivery of weather/ocean/climate products to a diverse and increasingly sophisticated user community.

• Initial (FY2003 – FY2008): –1-day forecasts of surface ozone (O3) concentration (twice per day) using NOAA/EPA community model for AQ (CMAQ) linked to 12 km Etalinked to 12 km Eta–Validated in testing over Northeastern US domain during 03 and 04 –Declared operational September 13, 2004–Increased domain to cover Eastern US in ‘05–Deploy Nationwide within 5 years

•Intermediate (FY2008 – FY2010):–Develop and test capability to forecast particulate matter (PM) concentration

•Longer range (by FY2013):–Extend air quality forecast range to 48-72 hours–Include broader range of significant pollutants

Air Quality Prediction at NCEP

NortheastDomain

East Domain FY05

FY03-04

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Service Centers

• Performance measures• Test beds• NDFD

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NHC Atlantic 72 hr Track Forecast Errors

Advances RelatedTo USWRP

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NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ATLANTIC TRACK FORECAST ERRORS

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ATLANTIC TRACK FORECAST ERRORS

12 24 36 48 72 96 120

Forecast Period (hours)0

100

200

300

400

500Er

ror (

naut

ical

mile

s)

1964-1973

1984-1993

1974-1983

1994-20032003-2004

Preliminary track errorDennis Emily

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Impact of Models on Day 1 Precipitation Scores

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.3519

9119

9219

9319

94

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

Thre

at S

core

Human(HPC)

ETA

Linear(Human(HPC))Linear (ETA)

HPC Forecasters Add Value

Models provide basis for improvement Correlations

Of HPC with:

Eta: 0.99GFS: 0.74NGM: 0.85

(DOC GPRA goal)

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Test Beds

Center Test Bed Activities

AWC Aviation Test Bed Turbulence/Icing

CPC Climate Test Bed Multi-model ensemble for SI

EMC Developmental Test Bed

HPC Hydromet Test Bed Winter Wx Desk

SPC Hazardous Weather Test Bed

Spring experiment – WRF testing

TPC Joint Hurricane Test Bed

Hurricane intensity

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NCEP’s Role in NDFD

• HPC– Provide digital guidance for use by forecasters

in the digital forecast process– Day 4-7 max/min temps, 12 hour PoPs,Td, sky

cover, wind direction and speed and precip type– QPF: Day 1-3, 6-hourly; Day 4-5 48 hour total

21Day 5 Day 4

Day 6Day 7 Max Temperature Forecasts

Valid July 27, 2005

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Modeling

• Current models – Interdependence• Introduction of the new Climate Forecast System• Model Plans in near future ~ 07• WRF, ESMF

GlobalForecast System

*Climate Forecast System

GFDLHurricane

NOAH Land Surface Model

Dispersion

Air Quality

Current Model Dependencies

Forecast

Rapid Update Cycle

GLOBAL

DATA Ocean

Ocean

North American Mesoscale Model

(NAM)

Ocean

Short-RangeEnsemble

Medium RangeEnsemble

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• First global operational atmosphere-ocean coupled dynamic model (implemented August, 2004)– Climate Forecast

System (CFS)– First climate forecast

system to beat statistical approaches

The NCEP Coupled Climate Forecast System

GlobalForecast System

*Climate Forecast System

HurricaneWRF

NOAH Land Surface Model

Dispersion

Air Quality

Near Future Model Dependencies ~ FY07

Forecast

WRF Rapid Refresh

GLOBAL

DATA Ocean

Ocean

Regional Weather Forecast Model

WRF-based

Ocean

Short-RangeEnsemble (WRF)

Medium RangeEnsemble (NAEFS

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WRFNOAA, AFWA, NCAR, FAA, NRL

• The next-generation mesoscale NWP modeling system for research and operations• Sustained by AF, Navy, NCEP, NCAR• Recent implementation of “Hi-res Window” for hazardous weather (ARW and

NMM) on 6/28/05 at ~5km• 6 new members to be added to the SREF system consisting of an unperturbed

(control) and a single breeding pair of ensemble members each for the WRF-ARW and the WRF-NMM twice per day by 4th Q ‘05

CMI

NCARARW

NCEPNMM

Explicit Cores(e.g., Hurricane, Dispersion, Aviation)

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Weather and Research Forecast Model

Prototype for Hurricane WRF (HWRF)

Initialized as tropical storm

108 h: landfall forecast (error<10 mi,

observed weakening)

102 h: Category 4 stormBefore landfall

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4km WRF - ARW 4km WRF - NMM

2km WRF - ARW 1h Base REF

NCEP SPC/NSSL Spring Experiment 20052 km and 4 km WRF Experiments

• ESMF definition– Global common model infrastructure– NCAR, GFDL, NASA/GSFC, MIT, NCEP– Basis for next generation global data assimilation and forecast

system– Generalized model to include hybrid coordinate

• Common model and data assimilation superstructure• Potential unified global and regional system

• ESMF Status– Have successfully coupled NCEP global analysis with NCAR-NASA

fvCAM using ESMF– Will couple GFS with GFDL MOM4 ocean model using ESMF by

end of 2005

Earth System Modeling Framework

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Increasing Role of Community Approach to Advancing Operational Models

“Front end” Joint Center for Satellite Data AssimilationNASA – NOAA – DOD

“Middle” WRF (NOAA, AFWA, NCAR, FAA, NRL)ESMF (NCAR, GFDL, NASA/GSFC, MIT, NCEP)

“Back end”NOMADS UCAR/CONDUIT

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Summary

• Working with community in model development and applications across entire spectrum from climate to weather

• Expanding its mission – space weather, air quality model, future role in operational ocean model being considered

• Addressing infrastructure issues – computer/buildings• Strategically positioned to advance climate and weather

forecast and support and address earth model issues for environmental prediction (air, water, ecosystem quality)

NCEP is