Public Opinion and Political Behaviors

Unit IIB

Public Opinion

Public Opinion

The attitudes, perceptions, and viewpoints individuals hold about government and politics

Influenced by political culture and political socialization

Skewed by limited political education and efficacy

Shaped by government, interest groups, and mass media

Measurement of Public OpinionDevelopment of Polls

Straw Polls– Asked same question to large number of people– Unreliable due to no cross-section of general population

George Gallup’s Ideas– Sampling

Represent general population and randomized

– Valid questions Clear, fair, unbiased, not misleading

– Control of poll Tone of question, basic knowledge of issues

– Analysis Provide sampling errors, show time and place of poll

Exit Polls– Public opinion surveys to determine electoral winners

Push Polls– Misleading poll questions to push a certain choice/candidate/issue

Measuring Public Opinion Public opinion polls are most reliable measurement of

public opinion Measured Qualities

– Intensity of beliefs– Real wants and needs– Constant or changing opinions– Consensus or polarized over issues

Reliable?– Who conducts the poll?– What is the sample size? Large sample size? Small sample size?– Population sample? Randomized sample? Representative sample?– Time of poll? Relevant to current issues?– Methodology? Consistent measures?– Sampling error? Low margin of error? Within -/+ 3%?– Clarity of questions? Unbiased? Unambiguous?

Sample Poll Examples Do you favor or oppose taxes? Do you favor or oppose taxes as a means to

national security? Do you favor or oppose Senator Smith, who

voted to raise taxes last session? Do you favor or oppose a state income tax of

7%?

Political Trust Government is a

“necessary evil” Major shifts in

public opinion with major events– Pearl Harbor– Vietnam– 9/11– Hurricane Katrina– Great Recession

Confidence in Institutions

Political Ideologies

A consistent set of political beliefs Develop based on economic, political,

and social issues Political ideologies may change over

time

Political Ideologies

Radical– Rapid fundamental changes; extreme methods such as revolution

Liberal– Supports political and social reforms; government regulations; minority

support; equality

Moderate– More tolerant; shares liberal and conservative beliefs

Conservative– Support social and economic status quo; reluctant for change, and only

gradual change; less government; liberty

Reactionary– Return to previous or historical system; extreme methods for

accomplishment

On American IssuesISSUE LIBERAL CONSERVATIVE

Scope of Government Large government to enforce liberties and equality

Limited government; states’ rights

Taxes Increase for businesses and upper-class Tax cuts for businesses and all classes

Government Spending Increase to stimulate economy Decrease to avoid debt; austerity policies

Defense Spending and Military Decrease bureaucracy and spending Increase for national security

Affirmative Action Support and expand Reduce or eliminate; “reverse racism”

Abortion Pro-choice; include as part of health care Pro-life; allowed only in cases of rape, incest, health of mother

Economy Increased regulation; support Federal Reserve

Free enterprise and free market economy

Global Warming Man-made consequence Natural global cycle

Same-Sex Marriage Support equality of marriage Marriage between a man and woman; states decide

Global Affairs Support the United Nations American exceptionalism

Energy Alternative and cleaner resources Subsidies for natural gas, oil, coal

Social Security Preserve the safety net Needs reform; privatization

Health Care Government-controlled low-cost care; single-payer option

Free market and private-run health care

Death Penalty Inhumane Crime deterrent

Immigration Easier path to citizenship; multicultural Secure the borders; English at official language

Prayer in Schools Violates separation of church and state; secular government

Official practice; teach intelligent design

Global Market Fair trade Free trade

2nd Amendment (Right to bear arms) Gun control Gun rights

Equality Fair chance Equal opportunity