Public Opinion and Socialization

Political Beliefs and Behavior #3

“Government for the people, by the people”

• Except….• We don’t have a balanced budget• The Equal Rights Amendment did not pass• School bussing programs continued.• No meaningful campaign finance reform• Lax gun control laws

All of these policies are supported by a majority of the people

Public Opinion vs. Public Policy

• The purpose of the United States Government was not to have “popular rule.”

• The founders looked for substantive goals and public opinion was just one of the options to get there

• Federalism and a large republic contains many “publics” that don’t reach the needed consensus.

What is Public Opinion?

Although the definition is simple understanding how it works and what goes into

it is often overlooked.

Qualities of Public Opinion

• Intensity/Saliency– Most public opinion polls do a bad job at

measuring how strongly somebody feels about an issue.

What do you think the percentage of people who believe abortion should

be available in some form in the United States?

Saliency can influence perception of public opinion by making it appear one side has a stronger numerical

base. In addition a smaller, intense group may have a better chance of

influencing policy than a larger non-intense group

Qualities of Public Opinion?

• Stability and Fluidity–The rate at which public opinion shifts

over time. Any opinion that stays around the same over a long period of time is said to be stable. Any opinion that dramatically changes over a long (or short) period of time is said to be fluid

Stable Opinion:Abortion

Fluid Opinion:War In Iraq

Qualities of Public Opinion

• Distribution–The typical American public opinion is

distributed over many different positions (most issues do not have just two sides to it). Distribution can tell politicians how much compromise is possible on a particular issue

Public Opinion Polling

• Qualities of a valid public opinion poll• Random Sample• A sample in which every element in a population has an

equal chance of being selected

• Questions must be comprehensible• People make up answers to questions they cannot

understand

• Questions must be fair• Cannot contain loaded language (push polling) that can

influence responses

Public Opinion Polling

• Keep In Mind– Sampling Error: In particular in close races» For a population over 500,000 pollsters need to

make about 15,000 calls to reach 1,065 respondents to get a poll with a +/- error of 3%

– Lack of responses hurts accuracy• Impact of Polls– Bandwagon Effect– Donations to Candidates– Voter Turnout

Political Socialization

The process in which we gather our political values

and become politically aware.

Sources of Political Socialization

The Family

Religion

Gender

The Family

• Majority of high school students know and support the party affiliation of their parents

• However, in recent years, people are less likely to identify with a political party, so it is becoming more difficult to pass this along.

The Family and the Generation Gap

More Likely to … Support gay marriage Support women’s rights Support privatizing social security Believe politicians have different

priorities Not identify with a political party

More Likely to … Be against gay marriage Be against women’s rights Maintaining current social security Believe politicians share priorities Identify with a political party

Religion

• Most Americans are somewhat or deeply religious– Difference lies in what role religion should play in

politics• Religious influences most pronounced on social

issues– Abortion– Gay Rights

• Differences not only between religions but within them

Gender Gap

Gender Gap

• The difference between political views of men and women–Women more likely to favor…• Universal Health Care• Same-Sex Marriage

—Women less likely to favor• Military Intervention

Impact Of Gender Gap

• From 1920 to 1980 any differences were negated by lower voter turnout of women

• Since 1980 woman have had a slightly higher rate of voter turnout– Women have been more likely to vote for the

Democratic Presidential Candidates.

D R R D D R R R

11%

Gender Gap in Elections Since 1980

April 17, 2012 by Pew Research Center

Overall Women’s VoteObama: 53%Romney 40%

45%