Public Opinion:
Mass vs. Elite Public Opinion
&
Presidential Approval Ratings
Differences in Public Opinion:Elites vs. Mass Public
• Elite Political Behavior– People who are deeply interested and
involved in politics– High levels of political knowledge– Well structured ideologies
• “Liberal” or “conservative” ideologies unite their positions on policy issues
– Response stability
Differences in Public Opinion:Elites vs. Mass Public
• Mass Behavior– Low levels of political knowledge– Unstable opinions
• Over time, their responses to similar questions vary greatly
– Inconsistent opinions• Ideologies are not grounded in consistent issue
positions
Explaining Political Behavior of Masses
• Low levels of political knowledge can be attributed to several factors:– Education tied to political knowledge– High information costs
• Gathering, processing, and storing information is neither effortless nor free
• Other more interesting things to do with your time– Other things to do, read, watch
How can information costs be reduced?
• Issue publics– Deflects information costs by limiting the amount of
information needed to form opinions
• Cues– Elite Cues– Partisan Cues
• Finding more enjoyable means for obtaining political “information”– Soft news – O’Reilly Factor, Crossfire, etc.– Late-night – Letterman, Leno, Conan, Daily Show
How are opinions formed?
• Political Socialization– Definition: The process through which
individuals acquire their orientations towards the political world
• Personal experience– Opinions are often influenced by life
experiences
Why is public opinion important?
• Helps political candidates and politicians identify the most important concerns among the public– Issues to run on– Policies to pass
• Drawbacks– Encourages short-term solutions over long-term
solutions– Can be easily manipulated
• Intentionally (by elites and media)• Unintentionally (by salient events)
Presidential Approval Ratings and
The “Rally ‘Round the Flag” Effect
Presidential Approval
• Today, presidential approval is gauged in very regular intervals– “Do you approve or disapprove of the way
George W. Bush is handling his job as president? “
– In addition to this general assessment of presidential job performance, polling companies also ask a variety of more specific questions on the economy, foreign affairs, taxes, etc.
Presidential Approval
• A President’s public approval ratings will give him leverage:
• In Washington– Increases bargaining ability– Increases his ability to “go public”– Some believe that it increases his success rate on
roll-call votes in Congress
• Nationally– Can serve as an early barometer for upcoming
elections
Determinants of Presidential Approval Rating
• Best predictor:– Consumer expectations
• What leads to deviations from this?– Honeymoon effects
• Presidents enjoy higher levels of approval at the beginning of a term
– Rally ‘round the flag effect• Presidents get a large bump in approval during
times of national crisis
Rally Events
• What defines a “rally event”? – International event– Event directly involves the United States and
particularly the president– Specific, dramatic, and sharply focused– Salient to the public
• These events confront the nation as a whole– Gain enormous public event and attention
Why do people “rally around the flag”?
• People will increase their support for the president (at least in the short-run) because he is the symbol of the country and the primary focus during times of crisis
• People do not want to hurt nation’s chance at success by opposing the president
George H.W. Bush
George W. Bush