Transcript
Page 1: Public Opinion: Mass vs. Elite Public Opinion & Presidential Approval Ratings

Public Opinion:

Mass vs. Elite Public Opinion

&

Presidential Approval Ratings

Page 2: Public Opinion: Mass vs. Elite Public Opinion & Presidential Approval Ratings

Differences in Public Opinion:Elites vs. Mass Public

• Elite Political Behavior– People who are deeply interested and

involved in politics– High levels of political knowledge– Well structured ideologies

• “Liberal” or “conservative” ideologies unite their positions on policy issues

– Response stability

Page 3: Public Opinion: Mass vs. Elite Public Opinion & Presidential Approval Ratings

Differences in Public Opinion:Elites vs. Mass Public

• Mass Behavior– Low levels of political knowledge– Unstable opinions

• Over time, their responses to similar questions vary greatly

– Inconsistent opinions• Ideologies are not grounded in consistent issue

positions

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Explaining Political Behavior of Masses

• Low levels of political knowledge can be attributed to several factors:– Education tied to political knowledge– High information costs

• Gathering, processing, and storing information is neither effortless nor free

• Other more interesting things to do with your time– Other things to do, read, watch

Page 5: Public Opinion: Mass vs. Elite Public Opinion & Presidential Approval Ratings

How can information costs be reduced?

• Issue publics– Deflects information costs by limiting the amount of

information needed to form opinions

• Cues– Elite Cues– Partisan Cues

• Finding more enjoyable means for obtaining political “information”– Soft news – O’Reilly Factor, Crossfire, etc.– Late-night – Letterman, Leno, Conan, Daily Show

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How are opinions formed?

• Political Socialization– Definition: The process through which

individuals acquire their orientations towards the political world

• Personal experience– Opinions are often influenced by life

experiences

Page 7: Public Opinion: Mass vs. Elite Public Opinion & Presidential Approval Ratings

Why is public opinion important?

• Helps political candidates and politicians identify the most important concerns among the public– Issues to run on– Policies to pass

• Drawbacks– Encourages short-term solutions over long-term

solutions– Can be easily manipulated

• Intentionally (by elites and media)• Unintentionally (by salient events)

Page 8: Public Opinion: Mass vs. Elite Public Opinion & Presidential Approval Ratings

Presidential Approval Ratings and

The “Rally ‘Round the Flag” Effect

Page 9: Public Opinion: Mass vs. Elite Public Opinion & Presidential Approval Ratings

Presidential Approval

• Today, presidential approval is gauged in very regular intervals– “Do you approve or disapprove of the way

George W. Bush is handling his job as president? “

– In addition to this general assessment of presidential job performance, polling companies also ask a variety of more specific questions on the economy, foreign affairs, taxes, etc.

Page 10: Public Opinion: Mass vs. Elite Public Opinion & Presidential Approval Ratings

Presidential Approval

• A President’s public approval ratings will give him leverage:

• In Washington– Increases bargaining ability– Increases his ability to “go public”– Some believe that it increases his success rate on

roll-call votes in Congress

• Nationally– Can serve as an early barometer for upcoming

elections

Page 11: Public Opinion: Mass vs. Elite Public Opinion & Presidential Approval Ratings

Determinants of Presidential Approval Rating

• Best predictor:– Consumer expectations

• What leads to deviations from this?– Honeymoon effects

• Presidents enjoy higher levels of approval at the beginning of a term

– Rally ‘round the flag effect• Presidents get a large bump in approval during

times of national crisis

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Rally Events

• What defines a “rally event”? – International event– Event directly involves the United States and

particularly the president– Specific, dramatic, and sharply focused– Salient to the public

• These events confront the nation as a whole– Gain enormous public event and attention

Page 13: Public Opinion: Mass vs. Elite Public Opinion & Presidential Approval Ratings

Why do people “rally around the flag”?

• People will increase their support for the president (at least in the short-run) because he is the symbol of the country and the primary focus during times of crisis

• People do not want to hurt nation’s chance at success by opposing the president

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George H.W. Bush

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George W. Bush

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