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Quarterly Vehicle Fleet Statistics

ISSN 1173-1079

Introduction The January-March 2016 Quarterly Fleet Report is a brief review of vehicle fleet statistics. It provides information on trends in vehicle registration patterns, fuel economy, travel and fuel prices. This report and the accompanying data are available from the Ministry of Transport website. The annual 2014 Fleet Statistics are also available. The 2015 report will be available in August. The vehicle, fuel economy and Road User Charges data in this report is derived from the New Zealand Transport Agency (NZTA) Motor Vehicle Register. The definitions of the vehicle classes that have been used can be found on pages 4 and 5, and Appendix A of the annual Fleet Statistics report.

Table of Contents Introduction ............................................................................................................................................ 1

October-December 2015 Highlights ...................................................................................................... 2

Registrations .......................................................................................................................................... 3

Fleet age, growth, makeup and scrappage ........................................................................................... 9

Emissions standards and CO2 emissions of light vehicles entering the fleet ...................................... 12

Engine size of light vehicles entering the fleet .................................................................................... 18

Transport Indicators ............................................................................................................................. 19

Petrol and diesel deliveries ............................................................................................................. 19

Real petrol and diesel prices ........................................................................................................... 20

Travel .............................................................................................................................................. 22

Purchase of road user charges ....................................................................................................... 23

Disclaimer: All reasonable endeavours are made to ensure the accuracy of the information in this report. However, the information is provided without warranties of any kind including accuracy, completeness, timeliness or fitness for any particular purpose.

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Enquires relating to this data may be directed to the Ministry of Transport, PO Box 3175, Wellington, or by email on [email protected]

For more information about vehicles and travel check out the research section of the Ministry of Transport website

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http://www.transport.govt.nz/research/quarterlyvehiclefleetstatistics

http://www.transport.govt.nz/research/newzealandvehiclefleetstatistics/

http://www.transport.govt.nz/copyright-and-disclaimer/

http://www.transport.govt.nz/copyright-and-disclaimer/

mailto:[email protected]

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January-March 2016 Highlights Light vehicle registrations

Light vehicle registrations are continuing to increase, but used imports have slowed. The graph shows rolling 12 month registrations.

Vehicle travel Light and heavy vehicle travel has been increasing since mid-2013.

Fuel prices Real petrol prices remain lower than they were in 2012-2014. These are real

quarterly prices, converted to a December 2011 basis using the consumer price index.

CO2 emissions of light vehicles entering the fleet

The reported CO2 emissions of light vehicles entering the fleet dropped in 2011 and 2012, but have levelled off since then (see Figure 4c).

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Light vehicle registrations (annual rolling average)

New

Used

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

Vehicle travel vs same quarter a year ago

Light

Heavy

100

120

140

160

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240

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Real regular petrol price (cents)

160

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2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

CO2 g/km of light vehicles registered

2

Registrations Light vehicles

Figures 1a and 1b show that recent registrations of new light vehicles are at record high levels and used light vehicle registrations are the highest they have been since 2005. Registrations of new vehicles dropped in 2008 and 2009 due to the effects of the global financial crisis, but the drop was less pronounced than for used vehicles. Sales have rebounded since that time. There were 282,000 new and used import light vehicle registrations in the year to March 2016, up from 267,500 to March 2015. Used import numbers were dropping prior to the 2008 global financial crisis. Among the contributing factors may have been the already high levels of vehicle ownership, collapses in the finance sector, fuel price shocks in 2006 and 2008 and the requirement from January 2008 for used imports to meet the Japanese 98 standard. This requirement restricted the vehicles that could be imported. There was a further requirement in January 2012 for used imports to meet the Japanese 05 emissions standard. This prevented most vehicles built before 2005 from being registered. This may have restricted used imports in the first half of 2012.

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Mar 05 Mar 07 Mar 09 Mar 11 Mar 13 Mar 15

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Month first registered in New Zealand

Figure 1a : Monthly light vehicle registrations

NZ newUsed imports

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Figure 1b : Monthly light vehicle registrations, by fuel

PetrolDiesel

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Buses and trucks

Registrations of used buses and trucks (Figures 1c and 1d) dropped to very low levels after July 2008. The 2007 Vehicle Exhaust Emissions Rule restricted imports of diesel vehicles after January 2008 to those built to the Japanese 02/04 standard, which effectively prevented most vehicles built before 2002 from being registered. In 2010 the requirement for used diesels changed to the Japanese 05 standard. There has been a slight recovery in used heavy vehicle registrations since 2012, which reflects the increasing availability of stock in Japan that is again economic to import. Sales of new buses and trucks remain dominant.

Larger numbers of buses and trucks were imported in late 2007 because they would not have been allowed in from January 2008. That is why registrations spiked in late 2007. The 2014 Fleet Statistics report provides more information on the truck and bus fleets.

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Figure 1c : Monthly bus registrations

Used busNew bus

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Figure 1d : Monthly truck registrations

Used truckNew truck

4


Motorcycles

Motorcycle and moped registrations (Figure 1e) increased in 2008, possibly in response to the higher fuel prices. Sales peaked in 2008 (20,000 registrations in the year to September 2008). They have been increasing recently and were 12,400 for the year to March 2016. The 2014 Fleet Statistics Report provides more information on the motorcycle fleet.

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Figure 1e : Monthly motorcycle/moped registrations

Used motor cycleNew motor cycle

5


Light passenger and light commercial registrations

Figures 1f, 1g and 1h provide more insights into light vehicle registrations. Figure 1f shows the growth of registrations since 2009 as economic confidence picked up and the exchange rate strengthened. Figure 1g shows that new light vehicle registrations rarely exceed used import registrations. It happened at the height of the financial crisis (early 2009) and again in 2012 when the emissions rule reduced used vehicle imports for a short period.

Q1=Jan–Mar, Q2=Apr–Jun, Q3=Jul–Sep, Q4=Oct–Dec

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Figure 1f : Light vehicle registrations

New light passenger New light commercialUsed light passenger Used light commercial

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05Q1 06Q1 07Q1 08Q1 09Q1 10Q1 11Q1 12Q1 13Q1 14Q1 15Q1 16Q1

Figure 1g : Light vehicle registrations

New light passenger New light commercialUsed light passenger Used light commercial

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05Q1 06Q1 07Q1 08Q1 09Q1 10Q1 11Q1 12Q1 13Q1 14Q1 15Q1 16Q1

Figure 1h : Light vehicle registrations

Used light passenger New light commercialNew light passenger Used light commercial

6

Light hybrids and electrics

Conventional hybrids1 now make up about 1% of light registrations.

The introduction of the Mitsubishi Outlander plugin hybrid had an immediate impact on electric vehicle2 registrations early in 2014. Audi and BMW plugin hybrids entered the market later.

The sales mix has changed - the bulk of electric vehicle registrations in recent quarters have been used imports.

There were 535 light electric and plugin hybrid registrations in the year to March 2016, which is well up on the 396 in the year to March 2015.

Used conventional hybrid registrations are increasing but new conventional hybrids registrations have levelled off. This reflects the increasing stocks of used hybrids available in Japan. The monthly electric vehicle report provides more detail, including a breakdown of the models that have been sold, and where the electric vehicle fleet is located. It is available from the “Monthly electric and hybrid light vehicle registrations” section of http://www.transport.govt.nz/research/newzealandvehiclefleetstatistics.


1 Conventional hybrids combine a conventional internal combustion engine with an electric propulsion system. Their energy is derived from the fuel they burn and regenerative braking. They do not use electricity from the electricity grid. Examples include the Toyota Prius, Toyota Camry, Honda Civic hybrid and Lexus H series. 2 Electric vehicles are either powered solely by battery, or are plug-in hybrid electric vehicles which are battery and engine powered. They have a shorter electric range than pure electric vehicles

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05Q1 06Q1 07Q1 08Q1 09Q1 10Q1 11Q1 12Q1 13Q1 14Q1 15Q1 16Q1

Figure 1i : Electric and hybrid registrations

New electric Used electric New plug-in hybridUsed plug-in hybrid New hybrid Used hybrid

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10Q1 10Q3 11Q1 11Q3 12Q1 12Q3 13Q1 13Q3 14Q1 14Q3 15Q1 15Q3

Figure 1j : Electric and plugin hybrid registrations

Used electric New electric New plug-in hybrid Used plug-in hybrid

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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internal_combustion_engine

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_motor

Table 1 Light hybrid and electric registrations

Electric vehicles Conventional hybrids

Year Period New electric

Used electric

New plug in hybrid

Used plug in hybrid

Total electric New

hybrid Used hybrid

Total hybrids

2010

Jan-Mar 0 0 0 0 0 209 60 269 Apr-Jun 1 0 3 0 4 159 67 226 Jul-Sep 6 0 0 0 6 298 57 355 Oct-Dec 3 0 0 0 3 268 37 305

2011


2012


2013


2014


2015


2016 Jan-Mar 9 103 55 5 172 298 587 885

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Fleet age, growth, makeup and scrappage Light fleet age

The increase in the number of light vehicle registrations that started in 2013 has largely halted the increase in the light fleet’s average age at about 14 years old. Figure 1k shows annual average age until 2013, followed by quarterly average ages from 2014 onwards.

Used import ages

The average age of the used import light vehicles entering the fleet is increasing.

In January 2012 the emissions rule changed to require light petrol vehicles to have been built to the Japanese 05 standard, which effectively prevented most vehicles built before 2005 from being registered. The average age of used imports dropped in 2012, but has been increasing slowly since then.

Almost all light used imports are petrol vehicles, which is why their average age is very similar to that of all light used imports.


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Figure 1k : Light fleet average age

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05Q2 06Q2 07Q2 08Q2 09Q2 10Q2 11Q2 12Q2 13Q2 14Q2 15Q2

Ave

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Figure 1l : Average age of used imports entering the fleet

Used light petrol Used light dieselOverall light Used trucks

9

Fleet growth

There has been a major increase in vehicle registrations since 2013. Figures 2a-2e show the change in the fleet size each quarter (registrations that quarter minus scrappage3 that quarter).

Figure 2f shows that the light fleet (light passenger plus light commercial) has grown by over 20,000 vehicles a quarter since the last quarter of 2013.


3 In this report a vehicle is considered scrapped during a quarter if it changes to inactive on the Motor Vehicle Register

-10,000 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,00008Q108Q309Q109Q310Q110Q311Q111Q312Q112Q313Q113Q314Q114Q315Q115Q3

Figure 2a : Light passenger fleet growth

-10,000 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,00008Q108Q309Q109Q310Q110Q311Q111Q312Q112Q313Q113Q314Q114Q315Q115Q3

Figure 2b : Light commercial fleet growth

-1,250 -625 0 625 1,250 1,875 2,50008Q108Q309Q109Q310Q110Q311Q111Q312Q112Q313Q113Q314Q114Q315Q115Q3

Figure 2c : Truck fleet growth

-200 -100 0 100 200 300 400 50008Q108Q309Q109Q310Q110Q311Q111Q312Q112Q313Q113Q314Q114Q315Q115Q3

Figure 2d : Bus fleet growth

-2,000 -1,000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,00008Q108Q309Q109Q310Q110Q311Q111Q312Q112Q313Q113Q314Q114Q315Q115Q3

Figure 2e : Motorcycle fleet growth

10

Light fleet age breakdown and scrappage

Vehicle safety performance has improved over time, on average newer light vehicles do a better job of protecting their occupants. Road safety policy makers are interested in the size of the pre-2000 vehicle cohorts remaining in the fleet, and the rate they at which they are leaving. Figure 2g shows the vehicle year of manufacture mix in the light fleet at the end of each quarter. Scrappage of the pre-1990 cohort is limited now, but the 1990-94 cohort is shrinking noticeably. Figure 2h shows that scrappage of pre-1990 vehicles peaked at around 3.5% per quarter in 2007 (which means that 3.5% of those vehicles in the fleet at the start of the quarter exited the fleet during the quarter), but is down to 1.5% now. The scrappage in the January-March quarter of 2015 was 3% of the remaining 1990-94 vehicles and 2% of the 1995-99 vehicles. Scrappage is not reported for the last four quarters as the administrative data we are now using to determine when vehicles leave the fleet is not definitive until 12 months after the period.

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00Q1 02Q1 04Q1 06Q1 08Q1 10Q1 12Q1 14Q1 16Q1

Fleet period

Figure 2g : Light fleet vehicle age bands

2015-19

2010-14

2005-09

2000-04

1995-99

1990-94

-1989

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

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4.5%

00Q1 02Q1 04Q1 06Q1 08Q1 10Q1 12Q1 14Q1

Figure 2h : Quarterly scrappage rate by vehicle age band

-1989 1990-94 1995-99

11

Emissions standards and CO2 emissions of light vehicles entering the fleet Emissions standards of light vehicles entering the fleet Under the 2007 Vehicle Exhaust Emissions Rule, all vehicles being registered in New Zealand are required to be built to a recognised exhaust emissions standard. Standards may come from Europe (Euro), Australia (ADR), Japan, or America. Figures 3a-3d show the steady improvement in the emissions standards of vehicles entering the New Zealand fleet over time.

New Zealand-new light vehicles typically comply with a Euro (or ADR equivalent) standard, and most used imports comply with a Japanese standard. The 2007 Emissions Rule required used imports certified from January 2012 to meet the Japanese 05 emissions standard. Figure 3c shows that almost all registrations of used imports now meet that standard.

Imports of new Euro 6 vehicles are increasing though it is not a legal requirement.

Explanatory notes: Australian Design Rules (ADR) emissions standards are identical to European emissions standards, although they sometimes have different implementation dates. The two are combined and reported as European standards in the graphs above. Fewer than 100 light vehicles a year are reported to comply with standards from America, so these are not broken down further in the accompanying spreadsheet. Vehicles are shown as ‘incorrectly recorded’ when the fuel type did not match the emissions standard, where the vehicle was reported to meet a standard that did not exist, or where insufficient information was provided to determine the standard. The emissions standards relate to emissions that are directly harmful. There is no relationship between these standards and the CO2 emissions described in this report.

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05Q2 07Q2 09Q2 11Q2 13Q2 15Q2

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Figure 3a : NZ new petrol emissions regime

Euro 6

Euro 5

Euro 4

Euro 3 or 4

Euro 3

Euro 2

Other /unknown

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Figure 3b : NZ new diesel emissions regime

Euro 6

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Euro 2

Other /unknown

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Figure 3c : Used petrol emissions regime

Japanese 05 petrolJapanese 00/02 petrolJapanese 98 petrolJapanese pre-1998 petrolOther/unknown

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Figure 3d : Used diesel emissions regime

Japanese 05 diesel

Japanese 02/04 diesel

Japanese 97/99 diesel

Japanese pre-97 diesel

Other/unknown

12

CO2 emissions of light vehicles entering the fleet

Issues in the test results

This section reports the fuel consumption figures that manufacturers get for their vehicles when they put them through standardised drive cycles in laboratory conditions.

While there will always be a difference between laboratory and real world results, they should be readily comparable over time. There is good evidence that the gap between laboratory results and real world fuel economy has been widening. A 2015 vehicle with a certain real world fuel economy is likely to have a lower laboratory result than a 2010 vehicle with the same real world economy.

Figure 4a from a recent European study shows the divergence between real world economy and laboratory test results. Real-world economy was 7% higher than test results in 2001 but the gap increased to around 25% by 2012.

Figure 4a Real world emissions vs laboratory test results

Source : http://www.theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/ICCT_LabToRoad_20130527.pdf

A similar comparison has been done in New Zealand4 between the actual fuel consumption of light petrol corporate fleet vehicles and their laboratory test results. The result shown in Figure 4b is similar to the result shown above. Real world fuel economy is diverging from the test values for the same vehicle.

4 “Real-world fuel efficiency of light vehicles in New Zealand” Wang, McGlinchy, Badger, Wheaton, Ministry of Transport. This paper was presented to the Australasian Transport Research Forum (ATRF) in October 2015, see http://atrf.info/papers/2015/files/ATRF2015_Resubmission_9.pdf

0%

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2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Mar

gin

of re

al w

orld

eco

nom

y ab

ove

test

s

Year of manufacture

Figure 4b : Divergence between real world and test petrol economy

13

Figure 4c shows that the average laboratory test value for new light petrol vehicles was 192 g CO2/km for vehicles entering the fleet in the fourth quarter of 2010 and 169 g CO2/km in the fourth quarter of 2015. That suggests an improvement of 12% in fuel economy. However, based on the result above their real world economy may have been 219 g CO2/km in 2010 and 211 g CO2/km in 2014, or an improvement of only 3.6%.

The NZ analysis does show that real world economy has been improving for vehicles with a given engine size and fuel type, but not as quickly as the laboratory results suggest.

The fuel economy of the light vehicles that have entered the fleet in the last two years has been static in terms of laboratory test results (see Figure 4c below). The implication is that their average real world economy may have actually worsened. Average CO2 emissions of light vehicles entering the fleet

Figure 4c shows the average reported CO2 emissions from light vehicles entering the fleet generally declined (due to improved reported fuel efficiency) from 2006 to 2012, but have leveled out since then.

The average engine size of light vehicles registered was dropping until 2010 (see Figure 9) and this contributed to the reduction in CO2 emissions. Average engine size has increased slightly since that time, which contributed to the slight increase in average CO2 emissions in 2014.

The reported CO2 emissions of new light petrol vehicles have been dropping since 2005. Some of the drop will have been due to the substitution of diesel SUVs for large engined vehicles such as the Australian Fords and Holdens. The drop in the engine size of light petrol vehicles can be seen in Figure 9. Some of the drop in reported fuel consumption of near-new vehicles in particular will be due to the issues in the test results discussed above.


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05Q2 06Q2 07Q2 08Q2 09Q2 10Q2 11Q2 12Q2 13Q2 14Q2 15Q2

CO

2g/

km

Year and Quarter

Figure 4c : Light vehicle registrations Average CO2 emissions

NZ New PetrolNZ New DieselUsed PetrolAverage

14

CO2 emissions of New Zealand-new light vehicle registrations (petrol and diesel)

Figure 5b shows that registrations in the segment of the fleet with lower reported CO2 emissions (under 150g CO2/km) have increased to 28% of new registrations. Protracted high fuel prices (see Figures 11a and 11b) between 2011 and 2014 probably had an impact on purchasing patterns, and there have been advances in vehicle technology. The average results can be seen in Figure 4c.


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Figure 5a : NZ new light vehicle registrationsCO2 emissions per km driven

No valueOver 250 g/km221-250 g/km201-220 g/km171-200 g/km151-170 g/km121-150 g/kmupto 120 g/km

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Figure 5b : NZ new light vehicle registrationsCO2 emissions per km driven

No valueOver 250 g/km221-250 g/km201-220 g/km171-200 g/km151-170 g/km121-150 g/kmupto 120 g/km

15

CO2 emissions of used imported petrol light vehicle registrations

Imported used petrol vehicles had lower reported CO2 emissions than New Zealand-new petrol vehicles (see Figure 4c on the previous page) until mid-2010. After that New Zealand new vehicles have been at least as efficient as used imports5. Figure 6b shows that the percentage of fuel efficient used vehicles (under 150g/km) entering the fleet changed little from 2005 to 2011, but increased markedly in 2012, possibly in response to fuel prices. The percentage of fuel efficient used petrol vehicles registered has remained much the same since 2012.

To enable the CO2 values for used vehicles to be compared with new vehicles (shown in Figures 5a and 5b above), their values have been converted from Japanese warm-start test values to European cold-start values.


5 The divergence between real world and tested fuel economy figures may have effected this comparison. Used imports tend to be 7 or 8 years old, and real world and tested fuel economy were closer when they were manufactured.

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Figure 6a : Used import light petrol registrationsCO2 emissions per km driven

Over 250 g/km221-250 g/km201-220 g/km171-200 g/km151-170 g/km121-150 g/kmupto 120 g/km

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Figure 6b : Used import light petrol registrationsCO2 emissions per km driven

Over 250 g/km221-250 g/km201-220 g/km171-200 g/km151-170 g/km121-150 g/kmupto 120 g/km

16

CO2 emissions of all light petrol vehicle registrations

Figure 7b shows that since 2005 there has been a trend towards buying more fuel efficient petrol vehicles, partly as buyers are purchasing diesel sports utility vehicles (SUVs) instead of larger engined petrol vehicles. The share of registrations of light petrol vehicles under 150g/km CO2 increased markedly in 2012 (see Figure 7b) but has plateaued since.


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Figure 7a : New and used light petrol registrationsCO2 emissions per km driven

New no valueOver 250 g/km221-250 g/km201-220 g/km171-200 g/km151-170 g/km121-150 g/kmupto 120 g/km

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Figure 7b : New and used light petrol registrationsCO2 emissions per km driven


17

CO2 emissions of new diesel light fleet registrations

Figure 8a shows that registrations of the least CO2 efficient diesel vehicles (over 250g reported CO2/km) have plummeted. Registrations of diesels under 170g CO2/km remain limited. Sales of light diesel vehicles continue to be mainly light commercial vehicles (vans and utes) and SUVs. New vehicle sales are strongly seasonal, reflecting tax and business cycles.

Used diesels have not been reported on as few of them have fuel economy values recorded.


Engine size of light vehicles entering the fleet The engine capacity of new petrol vehicle registrations has been trending down, while the engine size of new and used diesel vehicles has been increasing since 2012. The engine capacity of used petrol vehicles has hardly varied since 2005.


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Figure 8a : New light diesel registrationsCO2 emissions per km driven


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Figure 8b : New light diesel registrationsCO2 emissions per km driven


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Figure 9 : Engine size of vehicles entering the light fleet

New petrol Used petrol New dieselUsed diesel Overall

18

Transport Indicators Petrol and diesel deliveries6 This section of the report is behind the other data as it takes longer for the fuel data to become available. It covers the period Quarter 1 2003 to Quarter 4 2015. Fuel deliveries have seasonal patterns, so quarterly comparisons should be made with the same quarter in other years.

Over the longer term diesel deliveries have been increasing. Petrol deliveries were decreasing but began increasing in 2015, presumably due to the increase in the fleet size (see Figure 1b, page 3).

Diesel is also used in many non-transport areas of the economy including agriculture, mining, forestry, fishing, industrial and at times electricity generation. These fuel delivery figures include those uses, and the transport/non-transport usage split is estimated by the Ministry of Business, Innovation & Employment. The split of transport/non-transport use of diesel is discussed in the Liquid Fuel Use in New Zealand report.

Transport Non-Transport Latest quarter

6 Source Ministry of Business and Innovation (MBIE) fuel delivery data. http://www.med.govt.nz/sectors-industries/energy/energy-modelling/data/oil

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2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2005 2008 2011 2014 2004 2007 2010 2013 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015

Quarter 1 Quarter 2 Quarter 3 Quarter 4

Obs

erve

d co

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nerg

y (P

J)

Figure 10a : Quarterly petrol deliveries

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2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2005 2008 2011 2014 2004 2007 2010 2013 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015

Quarter 1 Quarter 2 Quarter 3 Quarter 4

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Figure 10b : Quarterly diesel deliveries(Transport and other uses)

19

http://www.med.govt.nz/sectors-industries/energy/pdf-docs-library/energy-data-and-modelling/technical-papers/liquid-fuel-use.pdf

Real petrol and diesel prices7 The prices shown in Figure 11a and 11b are December 2011 prices (termed real prices), adjusted for inflation via the consumer price index.

Real petrol prices remained between $2.03 and $2.11/litre from 2011 to late 2014. They dropped in 2015, to an average of $1.82/litre.

Real diesel prices dropped significantly in late 2014, They averaged $1.11/litre in 2015 which was substantially down on the $1.40/litre in 2012-2014.


7 Source Statistics NZ Infoshare – Economic Indicators, Group: Consumers Price Index Table: CPI Selected Quarterly Weighted Average Prices for New Zealand

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05Q1 06Q1 07Q1 08Q1 09Q1 10Q1 11Q1 12Q1 13Q1 14Q1 15Q1

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Figure 11a : Real average quarterly regular petrol price, Dec 2011 prices

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Figure 11b : Real average quarterly diesel priceDec 2011 prices

20

CO2 emissions of new light vehicles entering the fleet versus real fuel prices8

Figure 12 shows the average monthly CO2 g/km of new light vehicles entering the light fleet versus weekly regular petrol prices, converted to December 2011 prices via the consumer price index.

The continued high fuel prices between 2011 and 2015 may have had some impact on vehicle purchases, as the reported fuel efficiency of new petrol vehicles entering the fleet has improved steadily since 2010. The reported economy of new light diesels has improved, but far less than petrol vehicles. This is presumably because the average engine size of diesel vehicles has been increasing since 2012 (see Figure 9).

8 Source MBIE website http://www.med.govt.nz/sectors-industries/energy/liquid-fuel-market/weekly-oil-price-monitoring

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Dec05 Dec06 Dec07 Dec08 Dec09 Dec10 Dec11 Dec12 Dec13 Dec14 Dec15

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/litre

Figure 12 : Economy of new light vehicles entering the fleet vs fuel price

Light petrol vehicles Light diesel vehicles All lights

Real petrol price Real diesel price

21

Travel Figure 13a shows estimates of annual national travel9 for the 12 months to each quarter. Travel is increasing again after being fairly stable between the peak in 2008 and mid-2013. The recent increase reflects growth in the vehicle fleet, improved economic conditions and net migration.

The estimates are established by analysing the odometer readings recorded at warrant of fitness (WoF) and certificate of fitness (CoF) inspections over the last year.

This data lags the report period by 6 months, as WoF and CoF inspections are needed after the end of the period being analysed in order to estimate travel. If travel was estimated sooner it would have to be projected from the previous inspection, and changes in fuel price or economic conditions would reduce the reliability of that projection.

Vehicle travel per capita dropped between mid 2008 and 2012 but has been increasing since 2013. Figure 13b shows that travel per capita is less now than it was between 2005 and 2008. One influence is the age struicture of the population. More of the population is aged over 65 than it was in 2005 (11.9% of the population in March 2005, 14.6% in March 2015) and over-65s drive less on average than younger drivers.

9 All the vehicle travel estimates (2001 onwards) have been revised. The old mechanism for removing vehicles from the fleet (if their registration was not cancelled by the owner) took into account when their Warrant or Certificate of Fitness expired. That mechanism is no longer viable with the change to longer inspection periods in 2014. The new mechanism leaves some vehicles in the fleet longer, and produces travel estimates that are typically about 1% greater.

This new mechanism was first used in the January-March 2015 Quarterly Vehicle Statistics Report.

30,000

35,000

40,000

06Q1 07Q1 08Q1 09Q1 10Q1 11Q1 12Q1 13Q1 14Q1 15Q1

km (m

illio

ns)

Year ending this quarter

Figure 13a : Annual travel

Light vehicle travel Heavy vehicle travel

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paita

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Figure 13b : Annual travel per capita

22

The significant decline in heavy vehicle travel between October 2008 and December 2009 was the result of the economic downturn. Heavy travel increased significantly from mid-2013. Light travel dropped in 2010 and 2011 but has grown substantially since then.

Purchase of road user charges Drivers of vehicles with a gross vehicle mass over 3.5 tonnes, or powered by a fuel other than petrol or electricity, pay for their use of the roads through road user charges (RUC). All light vehicle RUC is from diesel powered vehicles.

RUC licences are purchased in advance so quarterly light vehicle net10 RUC purchases are only indicative of travel.

10 RUC used for off road travel is refunded. Net RUC is RUC paid less refunds

-6%-5%-4%-3%-2%-1%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%

Figure 13b : Travel growthCompared with the same quarter a year before

LightHeavyAll

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92Q1 94Q1 96Q1 98Q1 00Q1 02Q1 04Q1 06Q1 08Q1 10Q1 12Q1 14Q1 16Q1

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Figure 15a : Net RUC km Rolling 12 month totals

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Figure 15b : Heavy truck and trailer net RUC km Rolling 12 month totals

Heavy truck Heavy trailer

23

Q1=Jan–Mar, Q2=Apr-Jun, Q3=Jul-Sep, Q4=Oct-Dec

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05Q4 06Q4 07Q4 08Q4 09Q4 10Q4 11Q4 12Q4 13Q4 14Q4 15Q4

Figure 15c : 12 month net RUC km totals relative to 2005

Heavy truck Heavy trailerHeavy bus Car/van/ ute/bus

24