POLITICAL BAROMETERA Study of Socio-Political Preferences of People of Pakistan

Background

•First civilian government completing it’s term

•Chief Election Commissioner appointed through parliamentary consensus for the first time in the country’s history

•Caretaker government to be decided in consultation instead of being chosen by the president

The Political Barometer Survey• Covers a wide range of socio-political indicators

• Conducted across broad sections of the society

• Rapid assessment around 1,300 respondents in 52 districts, reflecting on issues like electoral reform, governance, security, interprovincial relations, arts and culture, civil rights, and foreign policy

• Strata take account of ethno-linguistic lines instead of the traditional provincial demarcation

Sampling•Demographic sample based on the population

census of the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics

•Stratified Sampling▫Ethno-linguistic▫Gender▫Urban/Rural▫Age▫Income▫Educational qualification

Questionnaire, interviews, and challenges

• Both open-ended as well as close-ended questions to minimize biases

• Conducted in 52 districts across Balochistan, FATA, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Punjab, and Sindh

• Occasional reluctance and difficulty by respondents to respond to a few questions

• The data was verified through randomly contacting reluctant respondants

• Respondents’ understanding of technical terms like MFN

IssuesElectoral Process

Corruption

Foreign Policy

Internal Security

Political Economy

Inter-provincia

l relations

Civil Military

Relations

Electoral Process

PPP24%

PMLN24%PTI

27%

Others25%

Most transparent party while contest-ing elections

PPP41%

PMLN16%

MQM19%

Others24%

Least transparent party while contest-ing elections

Yes53%

No21%

Maybe26%

Decision to vote despite doubts about the electoral process

Corruption

PPP56%

PMLN10%

MQM16%

Others18%

Responses on the most corrupt party

PPP23%

PMLN25%

PTI34%

Others18%

Responses on political party that will end/reduce corruption, if in power

Yes60%No

16%

Maybe24%

Decision to vote: will it be based on levels of corruption within a political

party?

Foreign Policy

Yes33%

No35%

Maybe32%

Preferences for Pakistan to have strong strategic alliance with the US

Yes70%

No11%

Maybe19%

Are drone attacks infringement on Pakistan's sovereignty?

Yes37%

No37%

Maybe26%

Does Pakistan require foreign aid?

Relations with neighbors

Maintains a neutral

stance38%

A party's stance on relations

with India will not factor in my deci-

sion mak-ing17%

Pledges peaceful ties with

India28%

Opposes peaceful ties with

India17%

Preference to vote for a party that...

Yes33%

No35%

Maybe32%

Should Pakistan promote a gov-ernment favourable to its own in-

terests in Afghanistan?

PPP30%

PMLN29%

PTI21%

Others20%

Party that can best handle Pakistan's foreign affairs

Internal Security

Negoti-ation36%

Military action24%

Negoti-ation

and mil-itary ac-

tion39%

Other1%

Government's engagement with Taliban should focus on...

PPP24%

PMLN26%PTI

20%

Others30%

Party that can best counter religious violence

PPP22%

PMLN24%

PTI22%

Others 32%

Party that can best counter sectarian violence

Political Economy

Unem-ployment

21%

Energy shortage

19%Currency devalua-

tion13%

Inflation12%

Foreign debt

burden12%

Others23%

Economic issues facing Pakistan

Pressing issues based on education levelsHigher Levels of Education Lower Levels of Education

•Extremism•Political instability•Interprovincial

problems

•Inflation•Gender

discrimination•Food shortages

Hea

lth

Educa

tion

Infras

truc

ture

dev

elop

men

t

Fuel i

mpo

rts

Defen

ce

Food

and

agric

ultu

re

Spor

ts

Wat

er a

nd p

ower

Enviro

nmen

t

Social

welfa

re

Tour

ism

dev

elop

men

t

Yout

h de

velo

pmen

t

10%

12%

8%9% 9%

7%8%

9%8% 8%

7%8%

Sectors needing increase in govt. expenditure

Hea

lth

Educa

tion

Infras

truc

ture

dev

elop

men

t

Fuel i

mpo

rts

Defen

ce

Food

and

agric

ultu

re

Spor

ts

Wat

er a

nd p

ower

Enviro

nmen

t

Social

welfa

re

Tour

ism

dev

elop

men

t

Yout

h de

velo

pmen

t

8%9%

8%

10% 10%

6%

9%8% 8% 8% 8% 8%

Sectors needing reduction in govt. expenditure

PPP27%

PMLN26%

PTI25%

Others22%

Most effective party to address Pakistan's economic problems

Provincial Matters

Dishar-monious

42%

Har-mo-

nious22%

No opinion36%

Pakistan's interprovincial relations are...

Yes36%

No38%

Maybe26%

Support for creation of new provinces

Yes12%

No69%

Maybe

19%

Power: equitable distri-bution between all

provinces?

Yes17%

No63%

Maybe

20%

Water: equitable distribution between all provinces?

Yes21%

No55%

Maybe24%

Is food distribution across provinces fair?

PPP26%

PMLN26%

PTI23%

Others25%

Party that will be most effective in addressing provincial problems

Civil-military relations

Mili

tary

Judi

ciar

y

Gover

nmen

t

Ule

ma/

cler

gy

Forei

gn p

ower

s

Inte

llige

nce

agen

cies

Busin

essm

en

Burea

ucra

cy

Indu

stria

lists

Feuda

ls

Birada

ri/clan

Oth

ers

11%

9%10%

8%9%

10%9% 9%

8% 8% 8%

1%

Most powerful institution in Pakistan

Women

Ban it19%

Promote it66%

Remain neutral

15%

What should be Government policy on women contesting elections?

Ban it11%

Promote it53%

Remain neutral

36%

What should be Government’s Stance on women's purdah outside their

homes?

Ban them26%

Actively promote

them48%

Remain neutral

26%

What should be Government policy on women working alongside men in

workplaces?

Both88%

Boys5%

Girls6%

Neither1%

Preference in education should be for...

Ban it29%

Actively promote it

46%

Remain neutral

25%

Government's policy on co-education should be...

Yes39%

No40%

Maybe21%

Should women have the right to divorce?

Unac-ceptable

77%

Acceptable2%

Sometimes justified,

sometimes unjustified

16%

No opinion5%

Opinions on domestic violence

Acceptable11%

Unac-ceptable

63%

Sometimes justified,

sometimes unjustified

19%

No opinion7%

Opinions on honour killings

Its policy on women contesting elections

15%Its policy on coed-ucation

14%Its policy on purdah

14%Its policy on women working

alongside men11%

Its policy on per-forming

arts13%

Others33%

Lifestyle and cultural issues influ-encing voter’s preference

Minorities

Yes72%

No13%

Maybe15%

Should non-Muslims have rights equal to the rights of Muslims in

Pakistan?

Yes82%

No8%

Maybe10%

Should non-Muslims have freedom to practice their religion in Pakistan?

Yes34%

No38%

Maybe28%

Should there be a separate voters list for minorities in Pakistan?

Yes38%

No39%

Maybe23%

Opinions on the fairness and justness of blasphemy laws in Pakistan

Voting trends

18-35 36-50 51-70 70+

27% 32% 28% 28%

24% 22% 28%46%

23% 19% 18%

8%26% 27% 25% 18%

Party support within each age bracket*

PPP PMLN PTI Others

*Does not include respondents who selected no party

Sindhi Seraiki Hindko Punjabi Pakhtun Baloch

55%46% 0.44 0.43

0.44

0.34

0.11

0.47

PPP PML-N PTIANP BNP-Mengal

Party support across different ethnicities

Voting trends vis-à-vis voting history

•Vote bank for PML-N Stagnant

•Vote bank for PPP Declined

•Vote bank for PTI Stronger urban base

PPP PMLN PTI MQM JI PMLQ

Rs. 10,000 or less 0.44 0.37 0.26 0.25 0.3 0.44

Rs. 10,000-45,000 0.53 0.55 0.59 0.5 0.57 0.41

Rs. 45,000-100,000 0.02 0.05 0.1 0.16 0.08 0.13

Above Rs. 100,000 0.01 0.03 0.06 0.09 0.05 0.03

Parties' supporters by monthly family income

•PPP▫Roughly one-third of the respondents

earning below Rs. 30,000 indicate a preference for PPP

▫Reinforces the pro-poor image of the party▫Support from those earning over Rs.

30,000 dropped to 10.8%

•PML-N▫Support appears similar across all income

groups

•PTI▫33% of those earning over Rs. 250,000

intend to vote for the party

•MQM▫33% of those earning over Rs. 250,000

intend to vote for the party▫Only 4% of those earning between Rs.

100,000 and 250,000 expressed intention to vote for the party

▫Below 100K

•Support for smaller parties appears to weaken as income level rises

•PTI eroding PPP votebank

The 5 Scenarios

Scenario 1•IF:

▫Electoral alliance between PPP and its current allies, ANP, MQM, and PML-Q

▫Anti-PPP alliance at the same time: PML-N, JUI, JI, minus PTI

•THEN: ▫PPP and alliance may capture 38.1% of the

vote▫Anti-PPP alliance, minus PTI, may secure

29.5%▫Together with the PTI, the anti-PPP alliance

may give a tougher time to PPP

• IF:▫PPP partners with current allies – ANP and PML-Q▫MQM opts for the anti-PPP alliance; PTI decides not

to be part of either

• THEN:▫PPP and allies secure 33.9% of the votes▫Opposition alliance secures 33.7% of the votes▫Weaker government against a stronger opposition

• Option 1:▫PML-N led govt.: PPP and PTI form opposition

• Option 2:▫PPP led govt.: PML-N and PTI form opposition

Scenario 2

•IF:▫Electoral alliance between PPP and current

allies – ANP, MQM, and PML-Q▫Opposing alliance between PML-N and PTI

•THEN:▫PML-N and PTI jointly sweep through,

capturing 45.0% of the votes relatively stable govt. at the centre

▫Anti-PPP parties may also join in

Scenario 3

•IF:▫Electoral alliance between PPP and PTI▫PML-N led strong opposing alliance

•THEN:▫PPP and PTI secure 49.3% of the votes

stable govt. at the centre

Scenario 4

•IF:▫PPP-led coalition with current allies▫PTI and JI partner for an alliance▫PML-N led alliance with JUI and other anti-

PPP parties

•THEN:▫PPP and allies secure 38.1% of the votes▫PTI and JI alliance secures 23.9%▫PML-N led alliance secures 25.9%

Scenario 5

What is expected…• Scenarios 3 and 4 unlikely

• Elections unlikely to be dominated by a single political party

• PPP may have to continue with its current alliance

• An emerging PTI

• Likelihood of a strong opposition high

• Electorate divided over ‘crucial’ issues

Thank you

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