UNECA ClimDev-Africa
Water Related Disasters: Prospects Under Climate Change
Seleshi B. AwulachewAfrican Climate Policy Centre (UNECA-ACPC)
25 June 20121
UNECA
Outline
1. Introduction2. Water Related Disasters in Africa3. Occurrences of Water Disasters –
Drought, Flood, Storm4. Prospects under Climate Change5. Water disaster implications to key sectors6. Copping Mechanisms and Measures7. ClimDev Africa and ACPC
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1. Introduction
• Disaster is a serious disruption of the functioning of a society or community
• Causes widespread human, material or environmental loss which exceeds the capacity of the affected society to cope without external intervention
• A disaster therefore an effect to the society of a hazardous occurrence
(UN/ISDR)
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1. Introduction: Disaster categories
Hydro-meteorological: Droughts/famine, Floods, Wind storms, Avalanches, landslides, extreme temperatures, heat waves, hurricanes, forest fires, insect infestations and storm surges
Geophysical disasters: Earthquakes, volcanoes, tsunami etc.
Water Disaster: Floods, Drought, Storm, Dam Break,… (essentially linked to hydro-meteorology)
• Water disasters are aggravated due to climate change
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1. Introduction: Disaster Trends
Number of people reported affected by natural disaster 1990-2010 (square rooted)
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1. Introduction: Disaster Damage Caused
Average annual damages ($US Billion) caused by reported natural disaster summary 1990-2010.
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UNECA At a global scale, water disasters are increasing under climate change
The frequency of heavy precipitation events has increased over most land areas.
1. Introduction: Water and None Water Disasters
7The annual total and cumulative number of natural disaster events recorded globally between 1900 and 2006
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1. Introduction: Manifestation of Water Disasters
• Climate variability & occurrence of El Nino/La Nina in Africa• Climate change and sea level rise in Africa• Intense rainfall and land slide in Africa• Increased coastal erosion and damage to coastal buildings and
infrastructure• Increase monsoon precipitation variability• Intensified droughts and floods associated with El Niño events
in many different regions• Decreased agricultural and rangeland productivity in drought
and flood-prone regions• Decreased hydro-power potential in drought-prone regions• The occurrence of water and vector-borne diseases epidemics:
cholera, malaria, leptospirosis and typhus.
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2. Water Related Disasters in Africa
• Africa is one of the most vulnerable continents to climate variability and change because of multiple existing stresses and low adaptive capacity.
• Existing stresses include poverty, political conflicts, and ecosystem degradation.
• Water Disaster Risk is projected to severely compromise agricultural production, including access to food, in many African countries and regions.
• By 2050, between 350 million and 600 million people are projected to experience increased water stress due to climate change.
Fig. Africa’s climate zones by Raúl Iván Alfaro-Pelico, 2010
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• African Sahel - past 30 years– A 25% decrease in rainfall
• Hydro-meteorological disasters in Africa– 66.5% in 2000-2009– 82.6% share in 2010
• Drought and flood hit same places in the continent at different times
• Strong relation between– Drought and famine– Flood and epidemic
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2. Water Related Disasters in Africa
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2. Water Related Disasters in Africa Climate extremes in Africa
• Hydrometeorlogical disasters in Africa (Shongwe et al., 2011)– East Africa
• 1980s – 3 events per yr• 1990s – 7 events per yr• 2000-2006–10 events per
yr– Southern Africa
• 1980s – 5 events per yr• 2000-2006 – 18 events
per yr
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Trends in drought and flood events in Africa
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3. Water Disasters: Drought, Flood, Storm,
Drought:• A situation of moisture deficit with adverse effect on vegetation,
animals, and man over considerable area
• Meteorological drought:– Abnormally dry, prolonged weather period for the lack of water to cause
serious hydrologic imbalance in the affected area
• Agricultural drought: – A climatic condition involving a shortage of precipitation that adversely
affect crop or pasture production
• Hydrologic drought: – A period of below average water content in streams, reservoirs,
Groundwater aquifers, lakes and soils
Both agricultural and hydrologic droughts lag behind the meteorological drought
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3. Water Disasters: Drought, Flood, Storm,
Flood:• Floods are caused by weather phenomena
and events that deliver more precipitation to a drainage basin than can be readily absorbed or stored within the basin
(USGS)• Major types of flood include:
– Coastal Flood– Flash Flood– Urban Flood– River Flood
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Dry Months Rainfall for Various Return Periods for the Upper Blue Nile Basin
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
100-yr 50-yr 25-yr 10-yr 5-yr 2-yr 5-yr 10-yr 25-yr 50-yr 100-yr
Return Period (years)
Mon
thly
Rai
nfal
l (m
m)
JanuaryFebruaryMarchAprilNovemberDecember
Dry Wet
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Wet Months Rainfall for Various Return Periods for the Upper Blue Nile Basin
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
100-yr 50-yr 25-yr 10-yr 5-yr 2-yr 5-yr 10-yr 25-yr 50-yr 100-yr
Return Period (years)
Mon
thly
Rai
nfal
l (m
m)
JuneJulyAugustSeptember
Dry Wet
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Rainfall – Runoff magnitude and frequecny
16Rainfall (red) and discharge (blue) frequency curves
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Tanzania flooding (December, 2011)
• The heaviest rains – since 1961
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The Salender Bridge which was partly damaged by floods
Conveyance capacity of drainage system is too low in most African cities due to improper design and construction
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Many countries face multi-hazards
• Mozambique– Droughts– Floods– Salt intrusion to groundwater – Cyclones
• 3‐4 per year get to landfalls • Kenya
– 2011-2012 – drought– Recently – deadly flooding in some parts
• We need to look at approaches that can help us to address risks from multi-hazards
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3. Water Disasters: Aggravating factors
Environmental degradation• Increases the intensity of natural
hazards and is often the factor that transforms the hazard into a disaster
• River and lake floods are aggravated or even caused by deforestation which in turn causes erosion & river clogging. Source: UNEP, International Soil Reference and
Information Centre, World Atlas of Desertification, 1997
Flood plain settlement • Population often being concentrated in
risky areas such as flood plains– E.g Gulf of guinea, costal areas of south east
Africa, Nile delta and Wabishebelle river basin in East Africa.
Climate change
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4. Prospects under climate change: Scientific Consensus• The climate system is driven by solar radiation from the Sun
• Phenomena that affect the energy balance of the climate system would ultimately alter the climate
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4. Prospects under climate change: Scientific Consensus
• Global warming is caused by the emission of GHG & their increasing concentration in the atmosphere due to human activities
• Concentration of the major GHG has increased since 1750
– Carbon dioxide (CO2) increased by 32%
– Methane (CH4) increased by 150%
– Nitrous Oxide (N2O) increased by 17%
– The increase in atmospheric CO2:- fossil-fuel burning and land use change including deforestation
– The increase in CH4 & N2O : - emissions from energy use, livestock, rice agriculture, and landfill.
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4. Prospects under climate change: Scientific Consensus• Earth’s climate results from interactions
of many processes in the components of the climate system: Anthropogenic system (human activities) disturb the balance
• The climate system and hydrological balance change as a result
- temperature increase in Africa
- warm atmosphere which absorb more water vapor and an increase in humidity,
-more water moving through the hydrological cycle, more extreme event
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Climate Change Mitigation and adaptation through better water management
Mitigation is about gases.Adaptation is mainly about water.
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Impact of climate change – snow melt- Climate change is already heating Africa
• The icecap on Kilimanjaro disappearing
• Reduction of the icecap by ~82% since 1912o It may disappear within 15
yearso Drying out of several
rivers
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Shrinking of Lake Chad
Lake Chad in a 2001 satellite image, with the actual lake in blue, and vegetation on top of the old lake bed in green. Above that, the changes from 1973 to 1997 are shown.
Driven by climate change or land use change?
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4. Prospects under climate change – sea level rise
• > 25 % of Africa’s population lives within 100 km of the coast
• 30 percent of Africa’s coastal countries is at risk of inundation– The most flood risk occurs in
• North, West and Southern Africa• Small Islands
• Impacts of sea level rise: • Reduced productivity of coastal
fisheries; • Migration and health issues; • negative impacts on tourism; .
• In Alexandria, • US$563.28 billion worth of assets
could be damaged or lost due to coastal flooding alone by 2070 26
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5. Water disaster impacts to key sectors
• Agricultural Sector (water infrastructures, irrigation development, production, productivity, seeds genotype, the sector development)
• Energy sector (hydropower)
• Health (human, animal)
• Environment (biodiversity, ecosystem equilibrium & sustainability)
• Economy (growth and sustainable development)
• Human settlement and migration (life, houses, livelihood)
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Impacts– agriculture and economy
• Climate is already changing and Africa already impacted
• Ethiopia: Extreme variability affecting GDP as agriculture is affected
• Burkina Faso: Variability linked to cereal productivity
• Kenya:30-50% around the mean- drought & flood
Loss in production, infrastructure, and increased poverty
Impact of rainfall variability on GDP and Agricultural GDP growth
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
year
%
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
rainfall variabilityGDP growthAg GDP growth
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Impacts: production, livelihood, settlement
• Impacts on Production System
• Flood Impacts on Shelter with displacement & migration from one area to another
• Drought influence infectious diseases such meningitis,
• Deplete food & cash savings
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• The weak Infrastructures in Africa
• National Security• Impact on the drinkable
water and water sanitation
• River Basin
Impacts: production, livelihood, settlement
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6. Water Disaster Management (W-DM)
• Impacts depend on– Climate extremes– Exposure – VulnerabilityNon-extreme event can produce extreme impact
• Extremes, exposure, vulnerability– Affected by anthropogenic CC and variability and developmentDRR and DRM need to address decreasing exposure and vulnerability
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6. W-DM : Flood Protection Measures
Example: Structural Measures- Understanding flood
magnitude and frequency- Protection measures;
- Flood plain, bank expansion, dykes, …
- Flood control reservoirs- Diversion of flood
- Management solutions: evacuation of people
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6. W-DM : Water Storage Continuum for Adaptation
Present climate vulnerability (pre-adaptation)
Water storage (adaptation strategy)
Future climate vulnerability (post adaptation)
Increased availability and access to water
Increased adaptive capacity
Increased agricultural productivity
Future climate vulnerability < Present climate vulnerability
Increased water security
Maximize benefit through multi-purpose development
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6. W-DM Coping Mechanisms
Farmers need access to weather and market information to make decisions, especially as climate change alters historical patterns.
Examples of Existing coping mechanisms of Water disaster Across African:
Malawi: Mainstreaming disaster reduction for sustainable poverty reduction
Cameroon: Flood recovery and resiliency program
Ethiopia: Facilitating provision of baseline vulnerability information on flood exposed communities; Crop insurance programme
Ghana: Sustainable development, disaster prevention, and water resources management
Burkina Faso: Integrated weather risk management for sustained growth
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6. W-DM Recommendations• Enhance knowledge management and policy towards DRM• Systematic efforts to analyze and manage the causes of
disasters• Foster awareness of the importance of disaster risk reduction• Identify, assess and monitor disaster risks and enhance early
warning (weather, nutritional surveillance in chronic drought period)
• Improve emergency response, awareness and preparedness; assist in post-disaster situations
• Ensure that DRR & DRM are national and local priority with a strong institutional basis for implementation
• Adopt integrated water resources & environment management • Enhance social protection, timely intervention & cash savings• Invest in dams and water reservoir infrastructures
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7 The ClimDev Africa Programme
• ClimDev-Africa: Climate for development in Africa
• Initiative of UNECA, AUC and AfDB• Mandate: Meeting of heads of state as
well as by Africa’s Ministers of Finance, Planning and Environment
• The program addresses use of climate information for development activities
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7. The ClimDev Africa Programme
Construct solid foundation in Africa for the response to climate change based on:•Building solid science and observational infrastructure;•Enabling strong working partnerships between government institutions, private sector, civil society and vulnerable communities; and,•Creation and strengthening of knowledge frameworks to support and integrate the actions required.
To achieve this, the three result areas of the Programme are:1.Widely available climate information, packaging and dissemination;2.Quality analysis for decision support and management practice; and,3.Informed decision-making, awareness and advocacy.
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7. The ClimDev Africa Programme
The input areas for delivering the Programme are:UNECA:
– Establishes African Climate Policy Centre– Secretariat for ClimDev Africa program– Coordinate and strengthen the policy response of climate
change, building the capacities of sub-regional and national organizations
AUC:• Provides the political leadership and coordinate continental
policy response and global negotiations• Establish CCDU unit at its head quarter
AfDB• Establishes and manages the Trust Fund (CDSF)
UNECA7 Governance Structure
Meetings of the Chief Executives of the AUC, UNECA and AfDB
ClimDev Programme Steering Committee (CDSC)
(AUC, UNECA, AfDB and others)
African Climate Policy Centre
(UNECA - ACPC)
ClimDev-Africa Special Fund(AfDB - CDSF)
Regional / sub-regional levelRECs/SROs, Regional/Sub-Regional Climate
Institutions, RBOs, Research Institutions
Technical Advisory Panel
National levelNMHSs, Sectoral Actors (public sector,
private sector, civil society)
Climate Change and Desertification Unit
(AUC - CCDU)Stakeholder forums
e.g. Climate Change and Dev. Conf. & other forums/platforms
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ACPC
The ACPC Climate and Dev’t
Climate and DevelopmentPolicy Community Practice Community
Research Community
Climate science, data and information
Climate resilient development Low carbon development
Climate finance and economics
•Knowledge generation and sharing•Advocacy and consensus building•Technical coop’n and capacity dev.
• Frameworks, strategies, plans • Case studies and examples• Research and partnerships
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Development 1st
Climate Resilient Development
Low Carbon Development
Energy Access Climate Finance
Infrastructure Networks
Water Agriculture
Land Use Forests
Disaster Risk Red’n
Early Warning
Climate Change
Meets Policy
Thank you
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