15. Mega-urban development projects in sub-Saharan Africa: what do cities gain or lose?

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  1. 1. Mega-Urban Development Projects in Sub-saharan Africa: What Do Cities Gain or Lose? Symposium on research findings Cape Town Breakwater Lodge 20-21 July Associate Prof Francois Viruly Rob Mc Gaffin University of Cape Town
  2. 2. Research Objectives The Research Question What do cities potentially gain or lose from mega Urban Projects. The Methodology Case studies (Eko Atlantic, Tatu Village , Cite du Fleuve , Century City ) Some Thirty projects analysed in a broader DFID Project. Understanding the relationship between the literature and case studies.
  3. 3. The African Cities Context.. City % Growth 2005-2010 ABUDJA 51.% LUANDA 43.7% NAIROBI 25.2% DAR ES SALAM 24.9% MAPUTO 23.5%
  4. 4. These are projects which transform landscapes rapidly , intentionally , and profoundly in very visible ways and require co- ordinated applications of capital and state power (Gebert and Lynch, 2003 )
  5. 5. Understanding Urban-Mega Projects They require large infrastructural commitments, They will take many years to complete, Often undertaken by more than one developer, Will tend to incorporate public private sector interventions, They influence the future shape of the metropolitan area, They will often have primary and secondary objectives ( including Economic growth ), Often based on the view to develop global cities / World class cities. It also implies that they will meet the needs of diverse stake-holders . That they will respond to other objectives such as TODs, decentralisation of economic activity, Improving the quality of the built environment, Often rely on public sector supoort .
  6. 6. Risks and Opportunities of Mega Projects Risks Opportunities Size and Urban Impact Funding Requirements Market Risks (Take- up) Property Cycle Risks Marketing Risks Infrastructural Risks Expected Positive Externalities Risks of non-completion Economies of scale Market Differentiation Mixed use nature Combining Home, Work and Play Market Competition Large Funding Opportunity Public Sector Commitment
  7. 7. The Role Of The Different Players Objectives Local and National Government Economic Growth Political Objectives Rates and Taxes Infrastructure Provision Private Developers Investment Returns The dev within a portfolio Dev at scale The User Demand for space Decentralisation Public as well as private sector Community Stakeholders Existing Users Land Owners Foreign Professionals and Financiers Appointments Prestige Projects
  8. 8. ANALYTIC FRAMEWORK FOCUS ON Event Sequencing/ Business Models ( Healey, 1991, Gore & Nicholson , 1991 ) , ULI Steps of the development process Organizing the Development process Event sequencing Pipeline Analysis Finance / Economic Based Models ( Barras,1999 ) , ( Rabianski et al , 2009), ( Di Pasquale & Wheaton) Economic Production Macro-economic in nature Focus on Financial relationships Growth Oriented policies The Institutional Models / Behavioural Models ( Healey 1991 ) , ( Ball , 1998 ) , (Shatkin, 2008 ), Guy & Hennberry ( 2002) Behavioural Models Actor- Centred Approach Driving Urban Change - PPPs National Prestige Historical context Globalization Models and International Urban models , (De Magalhaes ,2002)(Olds, 1995 ) Designed Internationally International consultants New Urban forms Edge City Global Financial system and Markets, Westernization & World Class
  9. 9. Cities of Fiction and Inequality ( Vanessa Watson Uct )
  10. 10. Century City Cape Town Your space. Your place. A general overview of Century City and its surrounding areas 1997 - Monex Initiates the Project 2004 - Acquired by Rabie Properties. Of 1,4Bn bulk , 0.923bn developed.
  11. 11. Tatu City and the Renaissance Group Work. Live. Play. Renaissance Group : Tatu City (2500 ha), King City (1000 ha), Appolonia 2500 Ha Land bought from coffee growers - Stephen Jennings ( Russian Finance / Globalisation of finance ) Global financial crisis and Renaissance group closes - Oct / NOV 2012. Rendeavour re-initiates the projects ( 2015 ) King CityTatu City
  12. 12. EKO ATLANTIC CITY NIGERIA ...the new financial epicentre of West Africa by 2020 Eko Atlantic City Prototype Current Progress Of The Project
  13. 13. Arial view of land reclaimed from the sea for Eko Atlantic City Construction of the Great Wall of Lagos and 500 ha of land
  14. 14. La Cite Du Fleuve Democratic Republic of Congo Project Initiated in 2008 Protocol signed with the Government of the DRC signed in 2009 The project receives the necessary infrastructural backing
  15. 15. Understanding the Basis of Mega- Projects WHERE IS THE COMMERCIAL CENTRE , THE AFFORDABLE HOUSES ( Facebook Page: )
  16. 16. KILAMBA Angolas Chinese built ghost city Part of the presidents promise to build 1 million houses in 4 years. It was an oil for housing project. The government used oil as collateral to gain funds China International Trust and Investment Corporation ( CITIC). Consists of 700 buildings over54sqkm (2008) Units sold at between $125000 - $200000 in 2013 president decreases range to $ 70000 - $180000 . Sonip , state owned oil company offers 90% mortgages at interest of 2,2%. However, even though prices in Kilamba are relatively lower than Luanda, only 20% of people in Luanda can afford to live there. Rendering it accessible to a small, if growing, middle class. Kilamba, 2014
  17. 17. POTENTIAL BENEFITS POTENTIAL LOSSES PUBLIC FINANCE Rates and Taxes The potential of value capture. Capturing Private Finance Public Private partnerships Economic Growth Unproductive Infrastructural Expenditure. Misallocation of infrastructure. PLANNING AND URBAN FORM Public- Private Partnerships The provision of catalytic projects . Promoting the Modern City Private sector dominance of planning . Public sector plans are compromised Decentalisation ad rdefining /public private space. Traffic Congestion Uncompleted Developments LOCAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT Provides the infrastructure / platform for economic activity. Economic development occurs in private space Channels resources to specific sectors Little focus on the
  18. 18. What Determines The Impact For Cities The Socio economic and Legal context Government capabilities The Players and Motives The Nature of Development Single or mixed Use Multi use ( complexities of mixed use developments ) Size of the Development Difficulty of the site The type of developer Umbrella Development Subsidiary Development The Infrastructural Requirements Bulk Infrastructure Connector Infrastructure Internal Infrastructure Land Requirements Private Land Public land Land lease arrangements
  19. 19. CHOOSING THE RIGHT ANALYTICAL APPROACH FRAMEWOCRK FOCUS ON Event Sequencing/ Business Models ( Healey, 1991, Gore & Nicholson , 1991 ) , ULI Century City Eko Atlantic Cite Du Fleuve Finance / Market Based Models ( Barras ) , ( Rabianski et al , 2009). ( Di Pasquale & Wheaton) Century City Tatu City Cite du Fleuve and Eko Atlantic Financials unknown The Institutional Models / Behavioural Models ( Healey 1991 ) , ( Ball , 1998 ) , (Shatkin, 2008 ), Guy & Hennberry ( 2002) Eko Atlantic Cite Du Fleuve Globalization Models and the International Urban models (Olds, 1995 ) All Projects Level of application varies Tatu City (Int Finance ) Chinese interests in Eko Atlantic, Kilamba , other projects
  20. 20. These type of developments should be seen as having the potential to alter urban dynamics. They redefine the relationship between private and public space - including the desire by local authorities the leverage economic activity on the back of infrastructure. They can result in the privatisation of urban and regional planning. An understanding should be based on an Actor centered historical framework with an emphasis on local context . The ability to link infrastructure with private sector property development. The Strength of the players The risk associated with these projects is that they do not take place - or in a very different format . Concluding Remarks
  21. 21. End