Mega-Urban Development Projects in

Sub-saharan Africa: What Do Cities Gain or Lose?

Symposium on research findings – Cape Town

Breakwater Lodge

20-21 July

Associate Prof Francois Viruly

Rob Mc Gaffin

University of Cape Town

Research Objectives

The Research Question

What do cities potentially gain or lose from mega

Urban Projects.

The Methodology

• Case studies (Eko Atlantic, Tatu Village , Cite du

Fleuve , Century City )

• Some Thirty projects analysed in a broader DFID

Project.

• Understanding the relationship between the

literature and case studies.

The African Cities Context..

City % Growth

2005-2010

ABUDJA 51.%

LUANDA 43.7%

NAIROBI 25.2%

DAR ES SALAM 24.9%

MAPUTO 23.5%

“ These are projects which transform landscapes rapidly ,

intentionally , and profoundly in very visible ways and require co-ordinated applications of capital

and state power”

(Gebert and Lynch, 2003 )

Understanding Urban-Mega Projects

• They require large infrastructural commitments,

• They will take many years to complete,

• Often undertaken by more than one developer,

• Will tend to incorporate public – private sector interventions,

• They influence the future shape of the metropolitan area,

• They will often have primary and secondary objectives ( including

Economic growth ),

• Often based on the view to develop “global cities “ / “ World class

cities”.

• It also implies that they will meet the needs of diverse stake-holders .

• That they will respond to other objectives such as TODs,

decentralisation of economic activity,

• Improving the quality of the built environment,

• Often rely on public sector supoort .

Risks and Opportunities of Mega Projects

Risks Opportunities

• Size and Urban Impact

• Funding Requirements

• Market Risks (Take- up)

• Property Cycle Risks

• Marketing Risks

• Infrastructural Risks

• Expected Positive

Externalities

• Risks of non-completion

• Economies of scale

• Market Differentiation

• Mixed use nature

• Combining Home, Work

and Play

• Market Competition

• Large Funding Opportunity

• Public Sector

Commitment

The Role Of The Different Players

Objectives

Local and National Government • Economic Growth

• Political Objectives

• Rates and Taxes

• Infrastructure Provision

Private Developers • Investment Returns

• The dev within a portfolio

• Dev at scale

The User • Demand for space

• Decentralisation

• Public as well as private sector

Community Stakeholders • Existing Users

• Land Owners

Foreign Professionals and Financiers • Appointments

• Prestige Projects

ANALYTIC FRAMEWORK FOCUS ON

Event Sequencing/ Business Models

( Healey, 1991, Gore & Nicholson ,

1991 ) , ULI

• Steps of the development process

• Organizing the Development

process

• Event sequencing

• Pipeline Analysis

Finance / Economic Based Models (

Barras,1999 ) , ( Rabianski et al ,

2009), ( Di Pasquale & Wheaton)

• Economic Production

• Macro-economic in nature

• Focus on Financial relationships

• Growth Oriented policies

The Institutional Models / Behavioural

Models ( Healey 1991 ) , ( Ball , 1998 ) ,

(Shatkin, 2008 ), Guy & Hennberry (

2002)

• Behavioural Models

• Actor- Centred Approach Driving

Urban Change - PPPs

• National Prestige

• Historical context

Globalization Models and International

Urban models , (De Magalhaes

,2002)(Olds, 1995 )

• Designed Internationally

• International consultants

• New Urban forms – Edge City

• Global Financial system and

Markets,

• “Westernization” & “World Class”

Cities of Fiction and Inequality ( Vanessa Watson – Uct )

Century City Cape Town “Your space. Your place.”

A general overview of Century City and its surrounding areas

• 1997 - Monex Initiates the Project

• 2004 - Acquired by Rabie

Properties.

• Of 1,4Bn bulk , 0.923bn developed.

Tatu City and the Renaissance Group “Work. Live. Play.”

• Renaissance Group : Tatu City (2’500 ha), King City (1’000 ha),

Appolonia 2’500 Ha

• Land bought from coffee growers - Stephen Jennings (

Russian Finance / Globalisation of finance )

• Global financial crisis and Renaissance group closes - Oct /

NOV 2012.

• Rendeavour re-initiates the projects ( 2015 )

King City Tatu City

EKO ATLANTIC CITY NIGERIA “...the new financial epicentre of

West Africa by 2020”

Eko Atlantic City Prototype

Current Progress Of The Project

Arial view of land reclaimed from the sea for Eko Atlantic City

Construction of the “Great Wall of Lagos and 500 ha of land”

La Cite Du Fleuve Democratic Republic of Congo

• Project Initiated in 2008

• Protocol signed with the Government of the DRC signed in 2009

• The project receives the necessary infrastructural backing

Understanding the Basis of Mega- Projects

“ WHERE IS THE COMMERCIAL CENTRE , THE AFFORDABLE HOUSES “ ( Facebook Page: )

KILAMBA Angola’s Chinese built “ghost city” • Part of the presidents promise to build 1

million houses in 4 years.

• It was an ‘oil for housing project’. The government used oil as collateral to gain funds China International Trust and Investment Corporation ( CITIC).

• Consists of 700 buildings over54sqkm (2008)

• Units sold at between $125’000 - $200’000 in 2013 president decreases range to $ 70’000 - $180’000 .

• Sonip , state owned oil company offers 90% mortgages at interest of 2,2%.

• However, even though prices in Kilamba are relatively lower than Luanda, only 20% of people in Luanda can afford to live there. Rendering it accessible to a small, if growing, middle class.

Kilamba, 2014

POTENTIAL BENEFITS POTENTIAL LOSSES

PUBLIC FINANCE • Rates and Taxes

• The potential of value

capture.

• Capturing Private Finance

• Public Private partnerships

• Economic Growth

• Unproductive

Infrastructural

Expenditure.

• Misallocation of

infrastructure.

PLANNING AND

URBAN FORM

• Public- Private Partnerships

• The provision of catalytic

projects .

• Promoting the “ Modern

City “

• Private sector

dominance of planning .

• Public sector plans are

compromised

• Decentalisation ad

rdefining /public private

space.

• Traffic Congestion

• Uncompleted

Developments

LOCAL ECONOMIC

DEVELOPMENT

• Provides the infrastructure

/ platform for economic

activity.

• Economic development

occurs in private space

• Channels resources to

specific sectors

• Little focus on the

informal sector

What Determines The Impact For Cities

The Socio –economic and Legal

context

• Government capabilities

• The Players and Motives

The Nature of Development • Single or mixed Use

• Multi use ( complexities of mixed

use developments )

• Size of the Development

• Difficulty of the site

The type of developer • “ Umbrella Development “

• “ Subsidiary Development “

The Infrastructural Requirements • Bulk Infrastructure

• Connector Infrastructure

• Internal Infrastructure

Land Requirements • Private Land

• Public land

• Land lease arrangements

CHOOSING THE RIGHT ANALYTICAL APPROACH

FRAMEWOCRK FOCUS ON

Event Sequencing/ Business Models

( Healey, 1991, Gore & Nicholson ,

1991 ) , ULI

• Century City

• Eko Atlantic

• Cite Du Fleuve

Finance / Market Based Models (

Barras ) , ( Rabianski et al , 2009). ( Di

Pasquale & Wheaton)

• Century City

• Tatu City

• Cite du Fleuve and Eko Atlantic

Financials unknown

The Institutional Models / Behavioural

Models ( Healey 1991 ) , ( Ball , 1998 ) ,

(Shatkin, 2008 ), Guy & Hennberry (

2002)

• Eko Atlantic

• Cite Du Fleuve

Globalization Models and the

International Urban models

(Olds, 1995 )

• All Projects

• Level of application varies

• Tatu City (Int Finance )

• Chinese interests in Eko Atlantic,

Kilamba , other projects

• These type of developments should be seen as having

the potential to alter urban dynamics.

• They redefine the relationship between private and public space - including the desire by local authorities the leverage economic activity on the back of infrastructure.

• They can result in the privatisation of urban and regional planning.

• An understanding should be based on an“ Actor centered historical framework “ with an emphasis on local context .

• The ability to link infrastructure with private sector property development.

• The Strength of the players

• The risk associated with these projects is that they do not take place - or in a very different format .

Concluding Remarks

End