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A wrap of China Q1 macroeconomic data, covering GDP, credit growth, consumption vs. investment, real estate, trade, income growth, inflation, PMI, and the Li Keqiang Index. Compares reported economic data with CapitalVue's own consensus forecasts.
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CapitalVue Research Analytics Macro and Industrial Data
China in Numbers – Macro Update, March 2013
Credit Outpaces GDP Growth, Consumption Contributes More to Growth
Social Financing Hits All-Time High, Loan Growth Lags
Inflation Falls, PMI Hits 11-Month High
Exports Increase, Along with Questions
Income Growth Declines
Investment vs. Consumption
Property Continues to Rebound
The Li Keqiang Index – Loans, Electricity Use, Rail Freight
Capital Markets, Capital Supplies, Exchange Rates
Key Data : NBS, NDRC, China Customs, Brokers, CapitalVue
1
A select sample brought to you by [email protected]
7.70
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0
5
10
15
20
Mar-05 Mar-07 Mar-09 Mar-11 Mar-13
GDP, left Total Financing, 3 month avg
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
1Q09 3Q09 1Q10 3Q10 1Q11 3Q11 1Q12 3Q12 1Q13
Exports Investment Consumption GDP growth
3
0%
50%
100%
150%
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13
Total Social Financing (left) Loan proportion of total
37%
6%
-100%
0%
100%
200%
300%
400%
Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13
Total Financing Loans
6.15
0
2
4
6
8
2009Q1 2010Q1 2011Q1 2012Q1 2013Q1
15.70
10
12
14
16
18
20
Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13
4
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13
PPI CPI Core CPI Food CPI
5
-30,000
-20,000
-10,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13
Trade Balance, $Mn (right) Exports Imports
6
7
16.40
0
20
40
60
80
8
67
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13
9
9.20
0
4
8
12
16
20
Feb-11 Aug-11 Feb-12 Aug-12 Feb-13
10
11
12
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