CME Group Chief Economist Blu Putnam provides a macroeconomic view of the Latin American market discussing the following: • Stable monetary policies, Argentian excepted • Challenges posted by U.S. economic policies • Headwinds from European growth struggles • Inflation pressures relatively well contained • FX and Equity market scenarios, risks, opportunities
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1. Challenges & Opportunities in Latin American Economies
2014 CME Group. All rights reserved. Blu Putnam, Chief Economist
September 2014 1
2. Investment advice is neither given nor intended 2014 CME
Group. All rights reserved. The research views expressed herein are
those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of
CME Group or its affiliates. All examples in this presentation are
hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for
explanation purposes only. This report and the information herein
should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual
market experience. 2
3. 2014 CME Group. All rights reserved. Risks of trading
futures and swaps Neither futures trading nor swaps trading are
suitable for all investors, and each involves the risk of loss.
Swaps trading should only be undertaken by investors who are
Eligible Contract Participants (ECPs) within the meaning of Section
1a(18) of the Commodity Exchange Act. Futures and swaps each are
leveraged investments and, because only a percentage of a contracts
value is required to trade, it is possible to lose more than the
amount of money deposited for either a futures or swaps position.
Therefore, traders should only use funds that they can afford to
lose without affecting their lifestyles and only a portion of those
funds should be devoted to any one trade because traders cannot
expect to profit on every trade. 3
4. 1. Latin American economic growth prospects 2. Global
context continues to constrain growth 3. Scenarios for market
reaction to a possible US 2014 CME Group. All rights reserved. Fed
rate rise in 2015 4. An FX perspective relative to short-term
rates, inflation, equities, and political risks 4 Latin
America
5. Latin American real GDP growth to improve only modestly in
2015 4.65% Latin American Real GDP Estimates 2014 CME Group. All
rights reserved. 5 2.67% 2.47% 0.37% 2.56% 0.97% 1.72% 2.31% 0.61%
4.32% 0% 2% 4% 6% Colombia - 2014 2015 Peru - 2014 2015 Chile -
2014 2015 Mexico - 2014 2015 Brazil - 2014 2015 Annual Average Real
GDP Percent Change from Previous Year. Source: CME Economics
Estimates.
6. 2014 CME Group. All rights reserved. Global constraints on
Latin American economic growth #1 China has been decelerating. #2
The Euro- Zone nations have been struggling. #3 The US has been
posting only modest real GDP growth. 6
7. China: Real GDP Growth Rates by Decade Estimated 2014 CME
Group. All rights reserved. China Long-Term 7 2.02% 7.30% 9.69%
9.96% 10.48% 6.73% 4.25% 12% 9% 6% 3% 0% 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s
2000s 2010s 2020s Annual Average Real GDP Growth Source: World Bank
Real GDP Index from the Bloomberg Professional (WRGDCHIN).
Estimates by CME Economics Research.
8. Europe still struggling to find its way forward 2014 CME
Group. All rights reserved. 8 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% Percent Change
in Annual Average Real GDP Euro-Zone Economic Growth Source:
Historical data from the World Bank via Bloomberg Professional
(WRGDEURO). 2014 and 2015 estimates by CME Economics
9. Scenarios for Fed decision to raise rates 2014 CME Group.
All rights reserved. Scenario #1 US labor markets continue to
improve while core inflation only creeps very slowly higher. Fed
pushes short-term rates higher in 1H/2015 as confidence in the
economic expansion improves. (60%) Scenario #2 US labor markets
continue to improve and core inflation rises above 2% year over
year rate, and inflation expectations rise for the years ahead. Fed
pushes short-term rates higher sooner rather than later. With some
inflation pressure, the Fed is perceived as being behind the game.
(30%) Scenario #3 Global economy hits a rough patch and slows US
growth. The Fed stays on hold. US Treasuries may rally. (10%)
9
10. US unemployment rate projected to decrease to 5.5% by
Mid-2015 The last time the unemployment rate went above 10% (1982),
it took 5 years to get back below 6%. -- the same time path the
economy is currently following. 2014 CME Group. All rights
reserved. 12% 9% 6% 3% 0% Percentage US Unemployment Rate Source:
St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank FRED Database (UNRATE) 10
11. Inflation path is key to bond market reaction to a Fed rate
rise decision 2014 CME Group. All rights reserved. 4% 3% 2% 1% 0%
US Core Inflation Scenarios 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
2011 2013 2015 Year-over-Year Percent Change Source: Data from St.
Louis Federal Reserve, Projections by CME Economics. 11
12. Scenarios for new dynamics in FX depend heavily on central
bank divergence 2014 CME Group. All rights reserved. Scenario #1 US
and UK economies perform well enough to lead to expectations of
rate rises in 2015, while Euro-Zone and Japan hit economic rough
patches. USD (and GBP depending on Scottish vote) outperform EUR
and JPY. (60%) Scenario #2 Creeping inflation in the US and UK
versus deflation fears in Europe and Japan magnify country
differences. (30%) Scenario #3 US, UK, Euro-Zone, and Japan all
disappoint on economic growth. Zero rates remain in all countries.
No trends, not much volatility. (10%) 12
13. Return of FX Carry Trade depends on 2014 CME Group. All
rights reserved. #1 Market confidence in a global economic
expansion with moderate US growth, stabilized China, and improved
European prospects. #2 Continued zero short-term rates in Japan and
the Euro-Zone (European Central Bank). #3 Political stability,
moderate economic growth, and short-term rate not far from
prevailing inflation in Latin American economies. 13
14. FX Performance: QE Taper Talk Period in the United States
30 April through 31 December 2013 Brazilian real Chilean peso
Mexican peso Peruvian nuevo sol Colombian peso 2014 CME Group. All
rights reserved. 14 FX Depreciation: -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% Currency
Percent Change versus US Dollar. Source: Bloomberg
Professional.
15. Stock Market Performance: 2013 vs 2014 2014 CME Group. All
rights reserved. Equity Performance (Local FX Terms) 15 US - 2014
YTD 2013 Peru - 2014 YTD 2013 Chile - 2014 YTD 2013 Colombia - 2014
YTD 2013 Mexico - 2014 YTD 2013 Brazil - 2014 YTD 2013 -30% -20%
-10% 0% 10% 20% 30% Stock Index Percent Change. Source: Bloomberg
Professional (SPX, IGBVL, IPSA, IGBC, MEXBOL, IBOV)
16. 2014 CME Group. All rights reserved. Political Risks 16
Brazil Latin American Elections October 5, 2014, with runoff on
October 26 Incumbent Dilma Rousseff versus Marina Silva Argentina
October 25, 2015 Incumbent Christina Fernandez de Kirchner cannot
run Peru 2016 Incumbent Ollanta Humala Gana Peru cannot run
Colombia May 25, 2014, with runoff held June 15 Juan Manual Santos
(Party of U) reelected Chile November 17, 2013 Former President
Michelle Bachelet won in a landslide (with low turnout) Mexico July
1, 2012 Enrique Pena Nieto returned PRI to power Source: CME
Economics.
17. 31 December 2013 through 31 August 2014 2014 CME Group. All
rights reserved. FX Performance 2014 17 Chilean peso Mexican peso
Colombian peso Brazilian real FX Percent Change: -15% -10% -5% 0%
5% 10% Peruvian nuevo sol Currency Percent Change versus US Dollar.
Source: Bloomberg Professional.
18. Short-Term Interest Rates and Inflation 2014 CME Group. All
rights reserved. Short-term rates and inflation 18 0% 2% 4% 6% 8%
10% 12% Colombia - Inflation Short-Term Rates Peru - Inflation
Short-Term Rates Mexico - Inflation Short-Term Rates Chile -
Inflation Short-Term Rates Brazil - Inflation Short-Term Rates
Percentage Rate Source: Bloomberg Professional.
19. 2014 CME Group. All rights reserved. Brazilian real 19 3.00
2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00 Brazilian Real per US Dollar Source: Bloomberg
Professional (BRL).
20. Brazil: Inflation and Short-Term Rates Inflation 2014 CME
Group. All rights reserved. Brazil: Short-term rates and inflation
20 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Short-Term Interest Rate 2003 2005
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 Annual Percentage Interest Rate,
Year-over-Year Inflation Rate Source: Bloomberg Professional
(BZPIIPCA, BZSELCIA)
21. 2014 CME Group. All rights reserved. Mexican peso 21 15 14
13 12 11 10 Mexican Peso per US Dollar Source: Bloomberg
Professional (MXN).
22. Mexico: Short-term rates and inflation Mexico: Inflation
and Short-Term Rates Inflation 2014 CME Group. All rights reserved.
22 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Short-Term Interest Rate 2003 2005 2007
2009 2011 2013 2015 Annual Percentage Interest Rate, Year-over-Year
Inflation Rate Source: Bloomberg Professional (MXCPI,
MXIBTIIE)
23. 2014 CME Group. All rights reserved. Chilean peso 23 700
650 600 550 500 450 400 Chilean Peso per US Dollar Source:
Bloomberg Professional (CLP).
24. Chile: Inflation and Short-Term Rates Short-Term Interest
Rate Inflation 2014 CME Group. All rights reserved. Chile:
Short-term rates and inflation 24 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% 2003
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 Annual Percentage Interest Rate,
Year-over-Year Inflation Rate Source: Bloomberg Professional
(EHPICL, CHOVCHOV)
25. 2014 CME Group. All rights reserved. Copper 25 $10,000
$9,000 $8,000 $7,000 $6,000 Copper Spot (USD per MT) Source:
Bloomberg Professional (LMCADY).
26. Peruvian Nuevo Sol per US Dollar 2014 CME Group. All rights
reserved. Peruvian nuevo sol 26 3.00 2.90 2.80 2.70 2.60 2.50
Source: Bloomberg Professional (PEN).
27. Peru: Inflation and Short-Term Rates Short-Term Interest
Rate 2014 CME Group. All rights reserved. Peru: Short-term rates
and inflation 27 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Annual Percentage Interest Rate, Year-over-Year Inflation Rate
Source: Bloomberg Professional (EHPIPE, PRBOPRBI) Inflation
28. 2014 CME Group. All rights reserved. Colombian peso 28
2,100 2,000 1,900 1,800 1,700 Colombian Peso per US Dollar Source:
Bloomberg Professional (COP).
29. Colombia: Short-term rates and inflation Colombia:
Inflation and Short-Term Rates Short-Term Interest Rate Inflation
2014 CME Group. All rights reserved. 29 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 2003
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 Annual Percentage Interest Rate,
Year-over-Year Inflation Rate Source: Bloomberg Professional
(COCPIYOY, CORRRMIN)
30. 2014 CME Group. All rights reserved. Argentine peso 30 120
100 80 60 40 20 0 Argentine Peso per US Dollar Source: Bloomberg
Professional (ARG).
31. Argentina: Short-term rates and inflation Argentina:
Inflation and Short-Term Rates Short-Term Interest Rate Inflation
2014 CME Group. All rights reserved. 31 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0%
2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 Annual Percentage Interest Rate,
Year-over-Year Inflation Rate Source: Bloomberg Professional
(IINAARG, BAIBPPPM)
32. Latin American Game-Changers for 2015 1. A Fed rate-rise
decisions largest impact might be improving market confidence in a
lasting expansion. 2. Faster global growth depends on China
stabilizing and ECB asset purchases bringing European economies
back to life. 3. FX carry trade may return: Latin American rate
differentials versus a zero-rate yen could prove attractive if 2014
CME Group. All rights reserved. Global economic risks decline and
Local political risks also appear to diminish. 32
33. 2014 CME Group. All rights reserved. Q&A 33
34. For more information, please contact your CME Group Sales
representative or visit cmegroup.com/latinamerica 2014 CME Group.
All rights reserved. 34
35. 2014 CME Group. All rights reserved. Thank you 35