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COLOMBIA
Quarterly Economics Update – Q3 2015
Christian von Canstein, MSc
COLO
MBIA – Q
UARTERLY ECON
OM
ICS UPDATE – Q
3 2015
Colombia’s economy is clearly going through a slowdown like the whole of Latin America.
Unlike for many of its peers, economic growth in Colombia remains strong. With a forecast of 2.9% for this year, Colombia is expected to be the second fastest growing economy in Latin America after Peru. Colombia’s slowdown is driven by two exogenous factors and not a dramatic deterioration of the country’s economy.
First of all, Latin America as a whole is affected by the current slowdown in China. The consequence of this is a fall in demand for commodities. This has certainly affected one of Colombia’s main exports: crude oil. Although it is evident that lower oil prices do have an impact on Colombia’s economy, especially for public finances, Colombia still remains a fairly closed economy, especially compared to regional peers such as Chile, Peru and Argentina. The impact of oil might thus not be as significant as commonly perceived.
Second, the prospect of an interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve in the near future has shaken emerging markets across the board, especially those that rely on foreign capital to fund their deficits. This is Colombia’s Achilles heel; with a current account deep in red, tighter monetary conditions overseas will take a toll on its economy. The Peso does therefore still face significant downwards potential even though it has already depreciated by more than 50% over the past year. If foreign capital inflows are reduced because higher rates in the US increase the opportunity costs of investing overseas, the current account deficit needs to fall, either via a reduction in imports or via more exports. A cheaper Peso should help to achieve that.
In summary, the current slowdown will be felt but is certainly not the end of the world. While many countries in the region are facing far greater challenges and outright recession, there is a good case for cautious optimism towards Colombia. 2
Overview
30/09/10 30/09/14 30/06/15 30/09/151 Year Change Forecast for 2015Real GDP Growth 1.70% 4.20% 2.80% 3.00% -1.20% 2.90%CPI Inflation 2.28% 2.86% 4.42% 5.35% 2.49% 4.30%Policy Rate 3.00% 4.50% 4.50% 4.75% 0.25% 4.75%Unemployment 10.57% 8.35% 8.25% 9.09% 0.74% 9.30%Business Confidence 4.60 2.10 -0.50 -1.20 -3.3N/AConsumer Confidence 35.40 17.50 14.70 -0.40 -17.90N/ACurrent Account -2.68% -4.29% -6.39% -6.39% -2.10% -5.80%Fiscal Balance -3.61% -3.41% -2.49% -2.49% 0.92% -3.00%10 Year Yield 7.25% 6.85% 7.22% 8.47% 1.62%N/ABusiness Loan Rate 9.71% 11.01% 11.09% 11.12% 0.11%N/AColcap Equity Index 1769.5 1665.7 1331.35 1218.82 -446.88N/AExchange Rate (COP/USD) 1802.18 2024.85 2606 3087.44 1062.59 3132
COLO
MBIA – Q
UARTERLY ECON
OM
ICS UPDATE – Q
3 2015Real GDP Growth (annualized moving average)
Compared to one year ago, real GDP growth has fallen slightly from an annualized 4.2% to 3.0%. This is still decent growth and GDP surprisingly picked up over the the second quarter and could end the year close to 3.0%.
Net exports have been affected by the falling oil price which is still 45% below its level of one year ago (in USD terms).
Industrial production picked up over the quarter but remains at low levels as business fears higher taxes, especially as the government is running a budget deficit of 2.5% which cannot rise further to meet its fiscal stability rule. Furthermore, the prospect of an end of the long-lasting conflict with the terrorist group FARC suggests that additional resources are required to rebuild areas that have been disproportionally affected by terrorism.Other sectors had an offsetting effect, however: construction keeps expanding as demand for housing remains high and is partly underwritten by the government via low interest rate subsidies to low income households. Consumer spending has also supported economic growth; even though it dipped in the second quarter of this year compared to the fist quarter, it recovered over the third quarter of this year and remains at solid levels.
The large public infrastructure program that was initiated last year is also providing continuing support for the country’s economy and should, once completed, increase long-term economic growth.
Growth hit by weak net exports but remains strong by regional standards
3
Real GDP Growth0.00%
0.50%
1.00%
1.50%
2.00%
2.50%
3.00%
3.50%
4.00%
4.50%
1.70%
4.20%
2.80%
3.00%
30/09/1030/09/1430/06/1530/09/15
COLO
MBIA – Q
UARTERLY ECON
OM
ICS UPDATE – Q
3 2015CPI Inflation (year on year basis)
As at end of September 2015, annualized CPI inflation had reached around 5.4%, significantly higher than last year and above Colombia’s central bank inflation target of 3%. Inflation is rising at its fastest pace in 6 years.
The main drivers were the weakening Peso and food prices, especially fruits and vegetables.
Upwards pressure in prices can partly be explained by the massive devaluation of the Peso over the past year; the currency fell by more than 50% against the US Dollar. As Colombia keeps importing more than it exports, the price of imports has therefore risen in Peso terms. No matter if sold directly or used as inputs, higher import prices are ultimately passed on to the consumer, depending on the price elasticity for each product.
Another driver of inflation has been dry weather that caused food prices to increase significantly. As food is a heavy component of Colombia’s shopping basket used to calculate CPI inflation, this had a major impact on overall CPI inflation.
If inflation remains at elevated levels, it could have a dampening effect on consumer spending, as wages are unlikely to rise commensurately, given weak productivity growth, persistent high unemployment and cost pressures companies are already facing amid the current slowdown.
Still, compared to Brazil (9.5% p.a.), Argentina (estimated 30% p.a.) or Venezuela (estimated 100% p.a.), Colombian CPI inflation appears to be relatively manageable.
Inflation is pushed up by weak Peso but remains in single digits
4
CPI Inflation0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
6.00%
2.28%
2.86%
4.42%
5.35%
30/09/1030/09/1430/06/1530/09/15
COLO
MBIA – Q
UARTERLY ECON
OM
ICS UPDATE – Q
3 2015Unemployment
Unemployment has again risen above 9% as at the end of September 2015, which is more than 70bp higher than one year ago but a significant improvement relative to 2010. However, the unemployment rate remains far too high for a rapidly growing emerging economy and is one of the highest in Latin America. Naturally, direct comparisons are not always appropriate due to different methodologies applied and the reliability of official data can sometimes be questioned (especially for the case of Argentina and Venezuela).
Still, the current level of unemployment suggests that Colombia’s economy is struggling to create sufficient jobs for its growing labor force.
This might be partly due to onerous and inflexible labor regulations which place large burdens on employers. This becomes a disincentive to hire and encourages mechanization as well as offshoring of production. The fact that wage growth has exceeded productivity growth over the last 15 years (refer to slide 22) might have added to that.
Another problem might be the skills gap: employers are struggling to find qualified personal for highly skilled positions due to shortcomings in the country’s education system. To make matters worse, such positions often support lower-skilled jobs.
The labor market remains one of Colombia’s weakest spots. Liberalization combined with improvements in education and encouraging the creation of apprenticeship schemes will be necessary to reduce unemployment permanently.
Despite recent improvements, unemployment remains high
5
Unemployment0.00%
2.00%
4.00%
6.00%
8.00%
10.00%
12.00%
10.57%
8.35% 8.25%
9.09%
30/09/1030/09/1430/06/1530/09/15
COLO
MBIA – Q
UARTERLY ECON
OM
ICS UPDATE – Q
3 2015Business Confidence
Colombian business remains too gloomy on the outlook of the country and consumer confidence has also been dented.
Over the last three quarters, business confidence has been falling and remains deep in negative territory. Consumer confidence has also turned negative this quarter.
In spite of the current slowdown, Colombia’s economy remains one of the green shoots of Latin America. The impact of oil is important but somehow exaggerated, given that the economy is not as much driven by exports as many of its peers. At the same time, opportunities that the depreciation of the Peso brings in terms of competitiveness of Colombian products in foreign markets, are largely underestimated.
Concerns about increasing tax burdens on business are certainly justified and anecdotal evidence suggests that the current administration could do more to ease the regulatory burden on companies; the recent exit of multinational companies like Bayer, Michelin, Mondelez and Apex Tools Group from Colombia is partly attributed to these factors.
Therefore, some reasons exist to be pessimistic but Colombia’s fundamentals are far better than many Colombians want to believe.
Business Confidence and Consumer Confidence take a hit
6
Consumer Confidence
Business Confidence
-2.00
-1.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00 4.60
2.10
-0.50
-1.20
30/09/1030/09/1430/06/1530/09/15
Consumer Confidence-5.00
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
40.0035.40
17.5014.70
-0.40
30/09/1030/09/1430/06/1530/09/15
COLO
MBIA – Q
UARTERLY ECON
OM
ICS UPDATE – Q
3 2015Fiscal Balance
Even if falling oil prices are a popular excuse by the current administration to justify the deteriorating budget deficit, the long term trajectory of Colombia’s fiscal position (slide 15) shows that the country has not managed to balance its budget for almost 15 years – independent from the business cycle and the level of oil prices. Even if debt to GDP remains at a manageable 38% as at the end of 2014, the country must learn to live within its means so that debt does not accumulate and reach unsustainable levels as has happened in many parts of the developed world. Spending will have to be adjusted at some stage which implies politically difficult choices.
The 10 year yield has picked up over the quarter and is 162 basis points higher over the year. Markets seem to demand compensation for increasing inflation risk and default risk. However, even if public finances have deteriorated a bit and plugging the gap amid low oil prices remains challenging, Colombia certainly remains one of the countries with the highest credit standing in Latin America – only Chile has currently a higher credit rating.
More work to do on the fiscal front
7
10 Year Yield
Fiscal Balance
-4.00%
-3.50%
-3.00%
-2.50%
-2.00%
-1.50%
-1.00%
-0.50%
0.00%
-3.61%-3.41%
-2.49% -2.49%
30/09/1030/09/1430/06/1530/09/15
10 Year Yield0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
6.00%
7.00%
8.00%
9.00%
7.25%6.85%
7.22%
8.47%
30/09/1030/09/1430/06/1530/09/15
COLO
MBIA – Q
UARTERLY ECON
OM
ICS UPDATE – Q
3 2015Policy Rate
Compared to last year, the policy rate is by 25 basis points higher as Colombia’s central bank seems to prioritize its inflation target over boosting economic growth. In the light of recent economic performance, this looks still like a sensible approach; Colombia is still far from a recession but inflation has been edging up recently and the trend is set to continue, given that the Peso is expected to remain weak over the next couple of months. Inflation is rising at the fastest pace in six years and central bank co-director Cano warned that inflation expectations could become unanchored. With a policy rate of 4.75%, the central bank will have plenty of firepower to support its economy going forward, should this become necessary. This compares favorably to the situation of many developed world central banks who have little to offer in case of a new recession, as their policy rates are pretty close to zero already.
For business, credit conditions have been edging up over the year. Nevertheless, the spread between the average business loan rate and the risk-free policy rate remains high. Increased inflation risk and rising default risks amid a slowdown might explain part of this. Another factor, however, is that markets still demand a significant risk premium to lend to companies. One explanation is Colombia’s reliance on bank financing for business loans. As the Colombian banking system lacks competition and due to the lack of alternative forms of debt financing for companies, persistent government deficits also push up the interest rate both business and consumers have to pay; borrowing by the government increases the demand for loanable funds which leads to upward pressure on interest rates until a new equilibrium rate that matches supply and demand is reached.
Credit conditions tighten
8
Business Loan Rate
Policy Rate0.00%
0.50%
1.00%
1.50%
2.00%
2.50%
3.00%
3.50%
4.00%
4.50%
5.00%
3.00%
4.50% 4.50%4.75%
30/09/1030/09/1430/06/1530/09/15
Business Loan Rate9.00%
9.50%
10.00%
10.50%
11.00%
11.50%
9.71%
11.01% 11.09% 11.12%
30/09/1030/09/1430/06/1530/09/15
COLO
MBIA – Q
UARTERLY ECON
OM
ICS UPDATE – Q
3 2015Current Account
Colombia’s weakest spot is its external balance. The current account has deteriorated drastically over the year and the deficit has almost tripled over the last five years. This implies that Colombia is unable to fully pay for its imports with exports of equivalent value. Slide 15 shows that the country has always run a deficit, both in times of low- and high oil prices. Being thus reliant on foreign capital to plug the gap, this could become a strong headwind when the Federal Reserve raises interest rates. If foreign investors become less willing to fund the deficit, the current account has to be brought back into balance via lower imports and more exports. The Peso might thus see a further plunge on top of what has already occurred over the past year. This would also push up inflation higher, due to rising import prices, and restrict the Central Bank’s wiggle room to support the slowing economy. This would occur at an inopportune moment; as slide 7 shows, Colombia cannot keep running its fiscal deficit forever and will need to implement budget consolidation measures at some stage. A combination of fiscal consolidation and tight monetary conditions during an economic slowdown can have recessionary effects, as the experience of some countries in the Eurozone over the last few years has shown.
Without much that can be done now, one must hope that Colombia’s economy manages to weather the storm. Policymakers should keep pursuing the goal of helping export business to rebalance the country’s external sector by cutting burdensome regulations and opening the country to global trade via more free trade agreements like the one implemented in 2013. Moreover, heavy investment in infrastructure is necessary to bring down the high transport costs and thus enable producers to bring their merchandise to global markets at competitive prices.
Colombia’s Achilles heel
9
Exchange Rate (COP/USD)
Current Account
-7.00%
-6.00%
-5.00%
-4.00%
-3.00%
-2.00%
-1.00%
0.00%
-2.68%
-4.29%
-6.39% -6.39%
30/09/1030/09/1430/06/1530/09/15
Exchange Rate (COP/USD)0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
1802.182024.85
2606
3087.44
30/09/1030/09/1430/06/1530/09/15
COLO
MBIA – Q
UARTERLY ECON
OM
ICS UPDATE – Q
3 2015Equity Market
The Colcap index shows the 20 most liquid Colombian stocks , weighted by adjusted market capitalization.
Colombian equity markets continued their decline over the quarter after a brief recovery in the second quarter of this year.
Energy stocks were obviously the greatest losers over the year with Pacific Rubiales Energy (-79%), Canacol Energy (-37%) and Ecopetrol (-58%) falling by the largest amount. Given that the latter has the highest market capitalization of the index (10%), its dismal performance had a considerable effect on the index as a whole.
However, the retailer Almacenes Exito (-55%) and airliner Avianca (-48%) have also sustained heavy losses over the year.
Most constituents faced double digit declines over the year which suggests that investors are pricing in a slowdown for the country as a whole. This is consistent with the observation that Colombia’s twin deficit is coming to haunt it and a period of fiscal consolidation and current account adjustment looms.
On a valuation basis, Colombian stocks might not be particularly cheap. However, this is masked by rich valuations for Empresa de Energia de Bogota, Grupo Argos, Cementos Argos and Grupo Sura. Stripping these out makes the index look far more attractive from a valuation perspective.
Banco Davivienda, Cemex and Avianca seem especially attractive (P/E ratio below 10) but investors might want to look at the respective fundamentals to understand the reasons for the low valuations.
Srock markets continue their decline
10
Colcap Equity Index0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
1769.5
1665.7
1331.35
1218.82
30/09/1030/09/1430/06/1530/09/15
COLO
MBIA – Q
UARTERLY ECON
OM
ICS UPDATE – Q
3 2015Relevant events over the quarter
11
• At the end of September, the government announced that a draft peace agreement was signed with the terror organization FARC that could lead to a permanent ceasefire and ultimate demobilization of the country’s largest illegal armed group. Investors welcomed this development as an end of hostilities would improve the business climate in the country; hitherto off limit areas would become open for investment. Infrastructure and other recovery spending would provide a welcome boost to the economy. Most Colombians are skeptical, however, and there are concerns that many FARC members who have committed war crimes, severe human right violations and drug trafficking will get off lightly.
• Colombia’s border city of Cucuta in the Norte de Santander department faced an acute refugee crisis after Venezuela arbitrarily closed most of its border crossings with Colombia and expulsed thousand of Colombians who had been living in Venezuela. President Maduro made unfounded claims that Colombian paramilitary forces were de-stabilizing his country when the problem is large scale smuggling due to price controls in Venezuela that have distorted large parts of its economy by imposing below market prices on goods such as gas. The real reason for the border closure was, however, Venezuela’s attempt to put pressure on Colombia not to extradite two Colombian drug traffickers to the United States who have information on the activity of Venezuela’s Cartel de los Soles which is said to include high-ranked members of Venezuela’s military and government. Venezuela has been accused of human right violations against Colombians in the country as many who were expulsed were not given the opportunity to collect their belongings.
• A dozen of sugar producers, mostly based in the Valle del Cauca department, were given an unprecedented fine of COP 324 Billion after a regulator concluded that the producers had been colluding to protect their market position by obstructing foreign competition. Many consider the fine disproportionate and even confiscatory, as it amounts to almost 7% of operating profits for some producers. The action by the regulator also affects disproportionally the Valle del Cauca region where the sugar industry is dominant.
• A COP 215.9 billion budget proposal was sent to Congress and ultimately approved. This year’s budget has fallen in real terms to reflect the drastic fall in oil prices over the year. Transport, Health, Work and Education will still receive the largest share of the budget while public administration and agriculture will see a significant reductions.
• The surprising announcement of Hyundai to end its contract with Carlos Mattos, a successful Colombian businessman, is likely to shake up the country’s car distribution sector and lead to lawsuits.
• Conalvias, one of Colombia’s biggest construction and engineering companies has started the process of restructuring its debt due to liquidity problems, after failing to come to an agreement with its creditors. Concerns about the impact on current infrastructure projects in the country were shrugged off for now as in the worst case, other companies should be able to complete the work.
APPENDIX: LONG-TERM STATISTICS
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COLO
MBIA – Q
UARTERLY ECON
OM
ICS UPDATE – Q
3 2015The slowdown is obvious and related to oil prices but growth is still sustained as Colombia’s economy is not only based on oil
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10.00
Oil Prices and GDP Growth
Oil PriceGDP Growth
COLO
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UARTERLY ECON
OM
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3 2015While inflation has been tamed, underemployment and unemployment still remain far too high, given Colombia’s growth potential
14
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0
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30
35
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45
50
Inflation, Underemployment and Unemployment
CPI InflationUnemploymentUnderemployment
COLO
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UARTERLY ECON
OM
ICS UPDATE – Q
3 2015The twin deficit is Colombia’s Achilles Heel and imbalances seem to be structural
15
10/1/01
4/1/02
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10/1/03
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10/1/11
4/1/12
10/1/12
4/1/13
10/1/13
4/1/14
10/1/14
4/1/15
10/1/15
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
Current Account and Budget Deficits
Current Account DeficitBudget Deficit
COLO
MBIA – Q
UARTERLY ECON
OM
ICS UPDATE – Q
3 2015After a period of sharp depreciation, the Peso approaches its weakest point in almost 15 years while further declines are expected
16
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3000
Exchange Rate (COP/USD)
Exchange Rate (COP/USD)
COLO
MBIA – Q
UARTERLY ECON
OM
ICS UPDATE – Q
3 2015The Peso also has weakened against other currencies
17
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50
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110
130
Exchange Rate (COP vs. broad basket)
Exchange Rate Broad Basket
COLO
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UARTERLY ECON
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3 201510 year yield has edged up a bit but sovereign credit standing remains strong
10 Year Government Yield
18
1/1/10
4/1/10
7/1/10
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1/1/11
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10/1/11
1/1/12
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7/1/12
10/1/12
1/1/13
4/1/13
7/1/13
10/1/13
1/1/14
4/1/14
7/1/14
10/1/14
1/1/15
4/1/15
7/1/15
10/1/15
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
10 Year Government Yield
10 Year Government Yield
COLO
MBIA – Q
UARTERLY ECON
OM
ICS UPDATE – Q
3 2015Credit conditions are stable but cost of capital remains high for Colombian business and consumers
19
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10/1/15
0123456789
10111213141516171819202122232425262728293031323334
Credit Conditions
Business Loan RateConsumer Loan RatePolicy Rate
COLO
MBIA – Q
UARTERLY ECON
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3 2015Non-performing loans (nominal) reach historical high – the next crisis in waiting?
20
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10/1/11
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0
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4000
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8000
10000
12000
Non-performing loans
Non-performing loans
COLO
MBIA – Q
UARTERLY ECON
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3 2015Colombian equity markets remain deep in bear territory
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Colcap Equity Index
Colcap Equity Index
COLO
MBIA – Q
UARTERLY ECON
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3 2015
22
Colcap Equity Index - Constituents
Company Sector Quarterly Performance Annual Performance 3 years Performance 5 years performance
Bancolombia SA 1 Financial -10.54% -12.91% -6.38% -16.24%
Ecopetrol SA Energy -23.12% -57.98% -74.91% -64.05%
Grupo de Inversiones Suramericana SA 1 Financial -3.08% -11.71% 17.87% -6.47%
Grupo Nutresa SA Utilities -9.26% -24.98% -1.14% -19.41%
Bancolombia SA 2 Financial -11.16% -14.31% -10.15% -19.26%
Grupo Argos SA/Colombia 1 Capital Goods 5.29% -21.15% -9.96% -21.49%
Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores SA Financial -7.84% -15.47% -1.26% No History
Cementos Argos SA Capital Goods 2.05% -12.59% 20.72% 35.41%
Almacenes Exito SA Services -41.64% -55.26% -55.05% -40.75%
Grupo de Inversiones Suramericana SA 2 Financial -2.75% -12.59% 6.31% No History
Corp Financiera Colombiana SA Financial 4.05% 1.54% 33.39% 40.80%
Interconexion Electrica SA ESP Utilities -2.72% -22.79% -24.89% -49.29%
Grupo Argos SA/Colombia 2 Capital Goods 5.24% -23.20% -12.73% No History
Banco Davivienda SA Financial -10.32% -17.76% 10.51% No History
Banco de Bogota SA Financial -1.67% -15.98% 16.85% 13.97%
Isagen SA ESP Utilities 3.60% 4.73% 17.55% 16.36%
Empresa de Energia de Bogota SA ESP Utilities 9.43% 8.07% 42.62% 20.90%
Cemex Latam Holdings SA Capital Goods -3.61% -31.67% No History No History
Cementos Argos SA Capital Goods 2.05% -12.59% 20.72% 35.41%
Celsia SA ESP Utilities -15.70% -41.28% -28.24% -47.50%
Avianca Holdings SA Transportation -44.93% -47.36% -56.38% No History
Pacific Rubiales Energy Corp Energy -27.77% -79.15% -83.49% -85.86%
Canacol Energy Ltd Energy 3.42% -37.18% -30.94% -73.58%
Bolsa de Valores de Colombia Financial -5.71% -30.96% -44.07% -58.44%
COLO
MBIA – Q
UARTERLY ECON
OM
ICS UPDATE – Q
3 2015
23
Colcap Equity Index - Sectors
4%
17%
50%
1%
10%
17%
ServicesCapital GoodsFinancialTransportationEnergyUtilities
COLO
MBIA – Q
UARTERLY ECON
OM
ICS UPDATE – Q
3 2015Gap between wage growth and productivity has taken toll on competitiveness
24
1/1/02
6/1/02
11/1/02
4/1/03
9/1/03
2/1/04
7/1/04
12/1/04
5/1/05
10/1/05
3/1/06
8/1/06
1/1/07
6/1/07
11/1/07
4/1/08
9/1/08
2/1/09
7/1/09
12/1/09
5/1/10
10/1/10
3/1/11
8/1/11
1/1/12
6/1/12
11/1/12
4/1/13
90
110
130
150
170
190
210
Labor Productivity vs Wages
Labor Productivity Wages
COLO
MBIA – Q
UARTERLY ECON
OM
ICS UPDATE – Q
3 2015Industry is holding the line
25
10/1/01
4/1/02
10/1/02
4/1/03
10/1/03
4/1/04
10/1/04
4/1/05
10/1/05
4/1/06
10/1/06
4/1/07
10/1/07
4/1/08
10/1/08
4/1/09
10/1/09
4/1/10
10/1/10
4/1/11
10/1/11
4/1/12
10/1/12
4/1/13
10/1/13
4/1/14
10/1/14
4/1/15
10/1/15
90
110
130
150
Industrial Production
Industrial Production
COLO
MBIA – Q
UARTERLY ECON
OM
ICS UPDATE – Q
3 2015Contact & Disclaimer
26
In preparing this report, I have relied upon publicly available data supplied by third parties. Although reasonable care has been taken to gauge the reliability of this data, this report carries no guarantee of the accuracy or completeness and I cannot be held accountable for misrepresentation of data by third parties involved. This report is an opinion piece and for private information and is for discussion purpose only. This report does not constitute financial advice and should therefore not be used as a basis to make any decisions. This report is based on data and information available at the date of the report and takes no account of subsequent developments after that date. It may not be modified without my prior written permission. Under no circumstances do I accept responsibility for any consequences arising from any third party relying on this report or the opinions expressed therein. This report is not intended to form a basis of any decision by a third party to do or omit to do anything.
This report has been written in private capacity and any opinions expressed therein should not be associated in any way with my current or previous employers or any professional organizations I belong to.
If you have any questions or comments on this report, please feel free to contact me.
Third Party sources that have been used are Asociacion Nacional de Empresarios de Colombia (ANDI), Bloomberg, Banco de la Republica, Bank for International Settlements, Departamento Nacional de Estadisticas (DANE), Fedesarrollo and Superintendencia Bancaria de Colombia.
Christian von Canstein, MSc
Email: [email protected]
