New base special 02 january 2014

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NewBase 01 January 2014 Khaled Al Awadi

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Report on UAE’s Hydrocarbon Reserves http://www.bedigest.com

The UAE’s hydrocarbon reserves are very large, both in absolute and per capita terms. According to the 2013 BP Statistical Review of World Energy, the UAE’s proven oil and gas reserves approximated 138 billion barrels of oil equivalent in 2012, which would last about 88 years at the current rate of production, slightly lower than Kuwait and Qatar. Per capita, the UAE had the fourth highest level of oil and gas reserves globally, at about 15,000 barrels of oil equivalent.

Credit rating agency Moody’s expect Brent benchmark oil prices remaining firm at an average of about US$109/barrel (Dh400) in 2013 to US$105/barrel in 2015.Even if the oil prices were to fall due to a supply glut, it would be limited by the unconventional oil producers’ high breakeven oil price, which is approximately US$60-US$70 per barrel for the US shale oil fields. The UAE’s fiscal breakeven oil price is coming down, a unique feature among GCC countries. Because of extraordinary fiscal support programs in 2009-2011, the UAE’s fiscal breakeven oil price rose sharply.

“Overall, we estimate that the emirate of Abu Dhabi had fiscal surpluses averaging 17.7% of its GDP over the past decade. These have led to the accumulation of considerable financial assets in the Abu Dhabi sovereign-wealth fund, ADIA [Abu Dhabi Investment Authority], which the Institute of International Finance (IIF) estimates at US$397 billion as of 2012. As a result, even if the oil price were to fall below the fiscal breakeven level of around US$70-US$80/barrel, the government would be able to finance fiscal deficits for many years,” said Thomas J. Byrne Senior Vice President — Manager at Moody’s.

Government Related Entities

Moody’s estimates that the UAE’s government and private debt are within the manageable limits despite high debt obligations of government related entities. The emirate of Abu Dhabi has a very low debt of around 3% of its GDP. However, debt worth another 35% of GDP was issued by Abu Dhabi government related entities (GREs). The debt of Abu Dhabi’s GREs now exceeds that of Dubai’s GREs in value. However, even considering the wider public sector, Abu Dhabi’s net financial asset position remains largely positive. Dubai’s direct government obligations are about 30% of the emirate’s GDP, while the emirate’s consolidated debt obligations (government + GREs) is estimated at 143% of its GDP in April 2013.




Oman’s oil production rises 2.5%, exports up 9.7% Times of Oman

Recent statistics issued by the National Centre for Statistics and Information (NCSI) shows that oil production in the

Sultanate rose by 2.5 per cent during the period January to the end of November, 2013 as compared to the same

period in the previous year 2012.

The average daily production of crude oil and condensate oil rose by 2.8 per cent (9417 barrels per day) up to the

end of November 2013 in comparison with the same period in 2012, while the average price per barrel witnessed a

slight decreased by 3.9 per cent during the same period compared to 2012. This year recorded an average of $

105.40 per barrel, compared to a $ 109.69 per barrel in the same period last year.

Regarding exports, oil exports to Indian markets from Oman recorded remarkable growth demonstrated by a growth

of 177.2 per cent until the end of November 2013 as compared to the same period in the previous year. Markets in

China were a close second recording a growth rate of 28.6 per cent in imports of oil from the Sultanate.

On the other hand, Japan, South Korea, Thailand, Taiwan and Singapore markets saw a decline in imports of Omani

crude as a result of lower demand. On the other hand, other Omani oil-importing markets grew by 68.6 per cent

which resulted in the rise of the balance of Omani oil exports total by 9.7 per cent until the end of November 2013.

In terms of domestic production and import of natural gas, the recent report has revealed a rise in production and

imports by 4.0 per cent until the end of November 2013, reaching 35,840 million cubic metres, compared to 34,476

million cubic metres during the same period last year.

Also, the consumption witnessed a 4.0 per cent growth during the same period. Industrial projects also recorded

growth in consumption of natural gas by 4.8 per cent with reference to the growth in the number of these projects

in the Sultanate. Power stations, on the other hand, recorded a decline in consumption by 1.4 per cent.

A view of an oil field in Oman. File photo




OOCEP active non-operating partner in Block 61: CEO Oman Observer in Business,By Conrad Prabhu -

The head of Oman Oil Company Exploration and Production (OOCEP) envisions a significant role for the upstream

energy firm in the Sultanate’s promising unconventional hydrocarbons sector as it prepares to partner with BP in the

commercial development of Block 61’s massive tight gas reserves.

Salim al Sibani, (Pictured) Chief Executive Officer, said its newly forged partnership with energy major BP in the

development of Block 61’s Khazzan field, coupled with its homegrown expertise in harnessing the tight gas potential

of its own Abu Tubul field in Block 60, will position OOCEP as key player in Oman ’s emerging unconventional oil and

gas industry.

“We believe the unconventional resources sector, which is still in its early stages now, has a huge upside in Oman.

Our partnership with BP in the commercial development of Block 61 puts us in a very good position to address some

other (unconventional) fields which fall in the same category,” Al Sibani said in comments to the Observer. Last

month, OOCEP, which is a wholly owned upstream oil and gas subsidiary of Oman Oil Company, signed a landmark

deal to participate in the Khazzan project with a 40 per cent stake. The total cost of full-field development, which will

deliver a plateau production of one billion cubic feet of gas per day, is estimated at $16 billion.

The deal comes as OOCEP prepares to kick off commercial development of its equally complex, but much smaller,

Abu Tubul tight gas field in Block 60. Total investment in the Abu Tubul project, which will deliver 70 million cubic feet

of gas per day, is estimated at $1.5 billion. “Block 60 is in an advanced stage of execution,” Al Sibani said. “Currently,

we are undertaking the construction of the processing plant, and as announced earlier (by officials of the Ministry of

Oil and Gas) we are looking at commercial production by the end of the first quarter or beginning of the second

quarter of 2014. Gas will be exported to the grid during the second quarter.”

OOCEP’s successful efforts in harnessing the potential of the Abu Tubul, which it acquired upon British firm BG’s

relinquishment of the Block in 2010, were key in positioning the company for this partnership role with BP in the

development of the Khazzan field. “Block 60 has allowed us to build our capabilities within OOCEP. For us here in

Oman, embarking on non-conventional resources has been a key parameter in building the required knowhow. Block

60 served as a platform which allowed us to be well-positioned to partner with BP in Block 61.

There is a lot of synergy (between the two fields), not so much on the size but in terms of their complexity, the

knowhow needed to deal with this complexity, and management of risks. Both projects are similar on the

unconventional stage: they come from the same reservoir at depths of almost 5,000 metres. The type of drilling,

fraccing, deep tight completions, and so on, will be similar as well,” the CEO explained. OOCEP will play a “very

active non-operating partnership role” in the commercial development of the Khazzan field, said Al Sibani. “We will be




heavily involved with BP at the technical level, the human capital development level, and the financial level. And we

will work with BP in a meaningful way to make sure the project is delivered on time and within budget.”

Its 40 per cent participation in the agreement, he further added, will be fully funded by OOCEP from the start of the

project.

Importantly, the partnership deal will also raise Oman’s profile in unconventional oil development, particularly in the

human capital side of the business, said Al Sibani. “This will help develop our capabilities in terms of the local

workforce and the services sector. We all know that unconventional resources development requires services to go

along with production to meet conventional levels. This requires fraccing, multistage fraccing, horizontal drilling, deep

tight completions, and also facilities. This, for Oman, is the first major milestone to develop future capabilities in terms

of unconventional resources.” (OEPPA Business Development Dept)

Drilling for gas in Block 61, taken from Johnathon D Woods flickr




Prospects Grim for Libyan Oil Recovery By. Daniel J. Graeber of Oilprice.com

Libyan oil production failed to make the grade for much of the year and there are few signs of improvement on the horizon. High on the market radar, post-revolution Libya ranks low in terms of prospects for medium-term recovery.

Libya's National Oil Corp. said it expected "good news" from the eastern Hariga port by Monday though the facility remains shuttered nearly five months after protestors closed it down. Two fields south of the port, Sarir and Messla, were open but output was curtailed because Hariga wasn't able to rotate its daily 110,000 barrel inventory.

Before civil war erupted in 2011, Libya was producing more than 1.65 million barrels of oil per day. November production of 210,000 bpd was its lowest level since the rebellion and exports are a meager 110,000 bpd from the few terminals still under the government's control.

Tribes pressing for more autonomy in eastern Libya are seeking a return to an administrative system established in the 1950s, which divided the country into three states -- Cyrenaica, Fezzan and Tripolitania. Last month, the self-declared government of Cyrenaica said it established its own oil company ready to put crude oil on the international market. Libyan Prime Minister Ali Zeidan, for his part, expressed optimism over developments at oil ports, but little progress has been made by either side.




In March, the International Monetary Fund in March said 2012 was an excellent year for Libya, where economic growth exceeded 100 percent. That year, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries said member state Libya was producing more than 1.4 million bpd. The IMF added that growth in the non-hydrocarbon sector is expected to average 15 percent through 2018. The Libyan economy, however, still relies on oil for about 80 percent of its state revenue.

Ibrahim al-Jedran, leader of the eastern Libyan rebel movement, said he wants a share of that revenue and disputes with a weakened central government in Tripoli has left oil production idled as a result. Oil production in November was off more than 80 percent of the peak for the year.

There have been few signs either side is winning the internal fight for control over Libya's oil. Prospects for a breakthrough in bilateral talks could develop as early as first quarter 2014, analysts said, though it's unlikely the post-revolutionary seams will be stitched well enough for a return to pre-2011 production levels.

International oil companies with a stomach for turmoil remain committed to Libya. Paolo Scaroni, chief executive officer at Italian energy company Eni, said it was wrong to discard a country that wallowed under more than 40 years of the brutal dictatorship of Moammar Gadhafi. British energy company BP, accused of shady dealings with the Gadhafi regime, said last month it had enough, however, and backed away from a major part of a $20 billion program in Libya.

A volatile post-Gadhafi Libya has left investors expecting an eventual return to the 1.6 million bpd glory. Algerian diplomat Lakhdar Brahimi said post-conflict reconstruction takes a long time and an even longer commitment. With few of the countries caught up in the Arab Spring showing signs of progress, Libya's prospects remain grim.

Libya warns public salaries at risk due to oil strikes http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/01/01/libya-oil-idUKL6N0KB14C20140101 (Reuters) -

Strikes at major ports and oilfields drying up oil exports undermine Libya's ability to pay public

salaries and deter foreign investment, the country's labour minister said on Wednesday.

Militias and tribesmen have seized ports and oilfields across Libya to press for political or financial demands, cutting output to around 220,000 bpd from 1.4 million bpd in July. Oil is the main source for the budget and for the funding of food imports. Western powers fear the North African country will slide into

A view of pipelines and a loading berth of the Marsa al

Hariga oil port in the city of Tobruk, east of Tripoli, Libya




instability as the government struggles to rein in militias that helped topple Muammar Gaddafi in 2011 but kept their arms.

"There's a huge impact of this (strike) issue. Salaries for Libyans are now at risk," Labour Minister Mohamed Swalin told a news conference. The strikes would lead Libya into a "dark tunnel" and deter the return of foreign companies that left during the 2011 uprising. Oil pipelines and production facilities as well as exploration efforts would be also affected should the blockages continue, he said.

The government has put pressure on tribal leaders in East Libya to persuade an armed autonomy group to lift the blockage of the Ras Lanuf, Es-Sider and Zueitina ports, previously accounting for 600,000 bpd. But autonomy leader Ibrahim Jathran said at the last minute that talks with Tripoli to gain a greater share of oil revenue for the east had failed.

There has also been no progress toward reopening Hariga port in the far east, despite an announcement by a local oil official last week that the terminal would resume exports within days. In another conflict, members of the petroleum protection force threatening to block a gas pipeline from eastern Libya to Tripoli said they would give the government another day to meet their salary demands.

The protesters had said on Sunday they would halt gas flows by Tuesday but a spokesman for them told Reuters they had agreed to extend the deadline until Thursday as tribal leaders wanted to meet them. A blockage would worsen power supplies, the state power company said in a statement. Outages have hit Tripoli and other major cities for weeks. Prime Minister Ali Zeidan has said the government will act against the oil strikes but its nascent army, still in training, it too weak to tackle heavily armed protesters, analysts say.




Is Thar Desert Coal a Breakthrough in coal power http://www.dawn.com/news/1077175/breakthrough-in-coal-power ,Khaleeq Kiani

Until the late 1970’s, Pakistan’s entire power generation was based on indigenous resources. Now, less than 60

per cent of power generation is from indigenous resources, which are depleting fast or getting out of use.

There are now no two opinions that after hydropower generation, domestic coal, in the long run, is going to be

the cheapest source of power generation when compared with imported coal, LNG, furnace oil and high speed

diesel. Domestic natural gas, although cheaper than coal, is fast becoming a scarce commodity, and is at the

centre of political wrangling.

For example, an average 600MW power plant based on Thar coal is estimated to have a levelised 25-year per

unit cost of less than 9.5 cents per unit (in domestic currency), compared with 10 cent per unit for imported coal;

13 cents per unit for LNG; 19 cents per unit for furnace oil and Rs21 per unit for diesel. As the size of the project

goes up, the cost of Thar coal-based power project will be on a sliding scale compared with LNG, furnace oil

and diesel.

Unsustainably rising electricity costs and limited foreign exchange reserves have forced policymakers to

concentrate on a domestic resource that is in abundance and whose future cost is predictable. This makes

sense given that power demand is forecasted to touch 45,400MW in 2019-20, and 134,800MW in 2034-35,

according to state-run National Transmission and Dispatch Company.

The effort seems to be picking up pace. According to Shamsuddin A Shaikh, the Chief Executive Officer (CEO)

of Sindh Engro Coal Mining Company (SECMC), the first Thar coal-based power project of 600MW is expected

to come into commercial production by end-2017, as its financial close is now near.

According to his estimates, the cost of imported furnace oil-based power generation has increased by over 700

per cent in the last 15 years, while that of gas-based project has increased by only 39 per cent.

“Had we accepted Shenua’s [of China] Thar fuel cost of 2.7 cents per unit in the mid 1990s, it would have been

3.6 cents per unit [now], with an increase of just 35 per cent in 15 years. And there would have been no circular

debt in the country,” he said.

The Thar Desert is estimated to have over 175 billion tonnes of coal. According to Mr Shaikh, this is about 50

billion tonnes of oil equivalent — more than Saudi Arabian and Iranian oil reserves put together. “This is equal to




about 2,000 TCF of natural gas — about 68 times higher than Pakistan’s total gas reserves,” he said, while

confirming similar estimates by nuclear scientist Dr Samar Mubarakmand.

He said the Thar Block II — now allocated to the company, which is jointly owned by Engro and the Sindh

government — alone contains two billion tonnes of lignite coal, of which 1.57 billion tonnes are exploitable and

can produce 5,000MW electricity for 50 years. The SECMC plans to set up a 3,600MW plant on its own, and

feed excess coal to other plants being set up by the government and other private companies.

Separately, the government is currently in the final stages of awarding contracts to generate about 5,480MW of

coal-based power projects in the public sector, apart from a private sector investment into the Gadani Coal

Power Corridor.

After the recent approval of the $900 million loan by the Asian Development Bank (ADB), coal conversion and

power generation has gotten a new hope. This would help convert an 850MW thermal power station at

Jamshoro’s conventional oil-fired steam units to coal. Consultants are currently being hired for this.

Almost same is the case with conventional oil-fired steam units 1-6 at Wapda’s thermal station at Muzaffargarh

of total capacity of 1,350MW. Simultaneously, the 640MW furnace oil-based project at Guddu is also being

converted to coal.

In addition, two new coal-fired power projects of 1,320MW each are being taken in hand in the public sector.

Along with ADB’s financial support, the Islamic Development Bank, China Exim Bank and other financiers are

chipping in to finance a brand new coal-based power project at Jamshoro of two units each of 660MW, with

supercritical technology of boilers.

The project feasibility study and environmental impact assessment studies have been finalised by consultants

directly hired by the ADB, which is now waiting disbursements because of project engineering contract award.

To attract private investment for the 6,600MW (10 plants of 660MW each) Gadani Power Park, the government

has decided to implement the first power project of 1,320MW (two plants of 660MW), for which bids have

already been received and are being evaluated for contract award. The federal government would make

arrangements for its funding from its own resources.

The National Electric Power Regulatory Authority has also now announced upfront tariff of 9.65 cents per unit for

large coal-based projects for 30 years to encourage investment in power generation.




India’s ONGC to to explore shale gas in Cambay PTI : vadodara,

Following the successful drilling of the country's first shale gas exploratory well near Jambusar about 60 km from here, Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) has decided to drill more wells in Cambay region of Gujarat, a top company official said.

"ONGC had drilled the first well in Jambusar in the last week of October in 2013 to exploit the natural gas trapped within the shale formations located in Cambay basin, which is estimated to have a shale gas potential of 20 tcf (trillion cubic feet)," said GC Katiyar, who took over as the Basin Manager of Western Onshore Basin of ONGC (headquartered in Vadodara), said. ONGC estimates India's shale gas reserve in the range of 500 to 2,000 trillion cubic meters.

Chairman and Managing Director of ONGC Sudhir Vasudeva said, India has recoverable shale gas reserves of around 90 TCF, which can satiate India’s energy demand for 26 years. Shale gas is natural gas trapped within layers of shale rock and can be utilised as cooking gas and for other commercial purposes. ONGC estimates India’s shale gas reserve in the range of 500 to 2000 trillion cubic meters.

The corporation has already planned to dig 30 shale gas exploratory wells across the country at the cost of Rs 600 crore by 2014-15. These explorations are expected to be carried out in alliance with ConocoPhilips, a US-based oil company that is leader in shale gas and deep-water exploration. Cambay is one of the basins that have been identified as potentially-bearing shale resources. But apart from the Cambay basin, the ONGC will also explore Krishna-Godavari, Cauvery and Vindhyan sedimentary basins for shale gas in the near future, officials said.

The first shale well (RNSG No. 1) was drilled by Oil

and Natural Gas Corp.




Top French firms back Saudi nuclear programme TradeArabia News Service

France-based Areva, an industrial conglomerate, and utility giant EDF have signed two sets of agreements with Saudi firms and universities aimed at supporting the kingdom’s nuclear energy programme. The two companies have signed Memorandums of Understanding (MoUs) with Zamil Steel, Bahra Cables, Riyadh Cables, Saudi Pumps, Descon Olayan. These agreements aim to develop the industrial and technical skills of local companies, marking Areva and EDF's desire to build an extended network of Saudi suppliers for future nuclear projects in the country.

A second series of agreements signed with four Saudi universities (King Saud University in Riyadh, Dar Al Hekma College and Effat University in Jeddah and finally Prince Mohammed bin Fahd University in Al-Khobar), are intended to contribute to the development of nuclear expertise in the country. These agreements follow on from the previous operations organized by EDF and Areva, through their joint office in Riyadh.

These include the "Suppliers’ Days" in March and October 2013, the visit to France by Saudi industrial companies in November, the agreement signed with the local professional training institute (NIT) in July 2013, the visits to French nuclear facilities organized for Saudi university faculty members in June 2013 and internship offers made to Saudi students since the summer.

EDF CEO Henri Proglio said: "These new agreements underline EDF and Areva's commitment alongside the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia to enable it to successfully implement its national energy strategy and in particular to develop its future nuclear program by contributing to the development of a local network of manufacturers and by training qualified engineers.”

Luc Oursel, president and CEO of Areva, said: "These agreements demonstrate the common will of EDF and Areva to establish a true long-term partnership with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. They will enable the country to build a strong industrial base and a robust skills management programme.”




Iraqi Kurds export first heavy oil to global market

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/12/31/kurdistan-oil-shaikan-idUKL6N0KA1M720131231

Iraq's Kurdish region has started exports of heavy crude to world markets, traders and industry sources said, a further step to wrestle more control of its lucrative oil sector from the central government in Baghdad.

Trucked through Turkey to a waiting tanker, the sale of Shaikan crude comes just ahead of planned exports of light crude Taq Taq via a new pipeline. The Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) began selling its oil independently of Baghdad in 2012, first with very light oil condensate, followed by Taq Taq, produced by London-listed oil company Genel.

These exports enraged Baghdad, which considers them smuggling as selling oil falls is handled by under the purview of Iraq's State Oil Marketing Organization (SOMO). Talks are underway between Iraq and the Kurds to find an agreement over oil exports and revenue sharing, after Arbil and Ankara signed a multi-billion dollar energy package at the end of November, including gas pipelines and exploration deals. Iraq's oil minister said Baghdad would retain control over the oil revenues.

But despite Baghdad's threats of legal action against potential buyers over the last year, the KRG has moved ahead with exporting Shaikan, the first international exports for AIM-listed Gulf Keystone in Kurdistan. Trading company Powertrans, an intermediary used by the KRG to export its oil from Turkey, has sold a 30,000 tonne cargo of Shaikan loading Jan 6-10, trading sources familiar with the matter said.

The cargo will load at the Delta Rubis terminal at Dortyol on Turkey's bay of Iskenderun, one of the sources said. Details of the ultimate buyer were unclear as a trader was re-offering the grade. The Shaikan oilfield is operated by Gulf Keystone, with Hungarian MOL holding a 20 percent interest. Commercial production began in July 2013 with an initial capacity of 10,000 barrels per day (bpd) and output is expected to reach 40,000 bpd in early 2014.

Gulf Keystone was not immediately able to provide a comment to Reuters after several enquiries. Taq Taq crude is being tested in a newly completed pipeline that links Kurdish oilfields to the Turkish border and then into an existing pipeline already exporting Kirkuk crude for state marketer SOMO to the port of Ceyhan. The oil successfully reached the Turkish port of Ceyhan for the first time last week.




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Khaled Malallah Al Awadi, MSc. & BSc. Mechanical Engineering (HON), USA ASME member since 1995 Emarat member since 1990

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[email protected] [email protected]

Khaled Al Awadi is a UAE National with a total of 24 yearsKhaled Al Awadi is a UAE National with a total of 24 yearsKhaled Al Awadi is a UAE National with a total of 24 yearsKhaled Al Awadi is a UAE National with a total of 24 years of experience in theof experience in theof experience in theof experience in the Oil & Gas sector. Oil & Gas sector. Oil & Gas sector. Oil & Gas sector.

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along with many MOUs for the local authorities. He has become a reference for many of the Oil & Gas Conferences along with many MOUs for the local authorities. He has become a reference for many of the Oil & Gas Conferences along with many MOUs for the local authorities. He has become a reference for many of the Oil & Gas Conferences along with many MOUs for the local authorities. He has become a reference for many of the Oil & Gas Conferences

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NewBase : For discussion or further details on the news above you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE

NewBase 01 January 2014 K. Al Awadi

Economy & Finance

New base special 02 january 2014