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Slide 1 RoI new car sales increased by 25% y/y in Feb-15. This was twice the growth rate in the UK & 10 times the rate for N.Ireland New Car Registrations Annual % Change -100% -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% Feb-07 Jun-08 Oct-09 Feb-11 Jun-12 Oct-13 Feb-15 Y/Y NI UK RoI Source: SMMT & SIMI UK car scrappage scheme started 18 May 2009

Northern Ireland new car sales

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Page 1: Northern Ireland new car sales

Slide 1

RoI new car sales increased by 25% y/y in Feb-15. This was twice the growth rate in the UK & 10 times the rate for N.Ireland

New Car Registrations Annual % Change

-100%

-50%

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

Feb-07 Jun-08 Oct-09 Feb-11 Jun-12 Oct-13 Feb-15

Y/YNI UK RoI

Source: SMMT & SIMI

UK car scrappage scheme started18 May 2009

Page 2: Northern Ireland new car sales

Slide 2

Divergence between NI & UK new car sales performance

New Car Registrations 3 months / Year

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

Feb-07 Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-13 Feb-14 Feb-15

Y/Y

NI UK

Source: SMMT

Page 3: Northern Ireland new car sales

Slide 3

2015 is still expected to see a 4th successive rise in new car sales

Northern Ireland New Car Sales Annual

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015*

Source: SMMT, * 12 months to February 2015

Page 4: Northern Ireland new car sales

Slide 4

Despite the fact that new car sales are almost 2% lower during the first two months of 2015 relative to the same period in 2014

N.Ireland New Car Registrations Annual % Growth

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015*

Y/Y

VAT cut to 15% & 'Cash for Clunkers'

Source: SMMT, *Figures for January & February only

Page 5: Northern Ireland new car sales

Slide 5

Petrol prices are well down relative to a year ago but have been ticking up in recent weeks

UK Fuel Prices - Pence per litre (Weekly)

109.2pMar-15

106.3pFeb-15

131.1pJul-14

129.7p

141.8p Apr-12

85.4p

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

Mar-04 Jan-06 Nov-07 Sep-09 Jul-11 May-13 Mar-15

Pence per litre

Source: DECC

Page 6: Northern Ireland new car sales

Slide 6

Falling food, energy and petrol prices will boost disposable incomes and support consumer spending

UK Consumer Price Inflation Y/Y % Change

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Jan-14 Feb-14

Mar-14

Apr-14 May-14

Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14

Sep-14

Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14

Jan-15

% Y/Y

Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages Electricity Gas & Other Fuels Transport Fuels & Lubricants

Source: ONSAnnual Monthly

Page 7: Northern Ireland new car sales

Slide 7

With wage growth finally rising at a faster rate than inflation

UK Average Weekly Earnings* & CPI InflationAnnual % Change

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Jan-02 Mar-04 May-06 Jul-08 Sep-10 Nov-12 Jan-15

%

Average Weekly Earnings CPI Inflation MPC Target

Income squeeze'NICE'

Decade

Source: ONS * Excluding bonuses

Page 8: Northern Ireland new car sales

Slide 8

Over the last 12 months to Feb-2015 there were 11,700 fewer new car sales than in 2007

11,706 fewer N.Ireland new car sales relative to 2007 peak 12 Month Rolling Sum

57,170

47,580

57,002

68,708

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

Feb-07 Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-13 Feb-14 Feb-15

Sales now 17% below

peak

Source: SMMT

Temporary reduction in VAT rate to 15% & 'Cash for

Clunkers'

Page 9: Northern Ireland new car sales

Slide 9

The RoI continues to record the fastest rates of growth but this is coming off very low levels

NI v UK v RoI New Car Sales 3 months / YY% Change

-75%

-50%

-25%

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

125%

Feb-07 Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-13 Feb-14 Feb-15

Y/Y

NI UK RoI

Source: SMMT & SIMI

Page 10: Northern Ireland new car sales

Slide 10

Volume of new car sales in RoI and NI is still 43% and 17% respectively below 2007 levels

New Car Registrations12 month Rolling Sum Indexed 2007 =100

-17%

+4%

-43%

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Jan-08 Jun-09 Nov-10 Apr-12 Sep-13 Feb-15

Index

NI UK RoI Pre-Recession Peak

Source: SMMT & SIMI

Page 11: Northern Ireland new car sales

Slide 11

England, Scotland & Wales have higher new car sales volumes now than they did before the recession

New Car RegistrationsIndexed 2007 =100

-17%

+11%

+4%

-43%

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Jan-08 Jun-09 Nov-10 Apr-12 Sep-13 Feb-15

Index

NI Scotland Wales UK RoI Pre-Recession Peak

Source: SMMT & SIMI

Page 12: Northern Ireland new car sales

Slide 12

The Republic of Ireland market witnessed the steepest decline and strongest recovery but still way below 2007 levels

New Car Registrations February 201512 Months relative to 2007 Levels

-80%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Peak-to-Trough Decline Recovery From Trough Net Position

NI England Scotland Wales UK RoI

Source: SMMT & SIMI

Page 13: Northern Ireland new car sales

Slide 13

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