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OECD Employment Outlook 2015 Selected figures OECD Employment Outlook 20015 www.oecd.org/employment

OECD Employment Outlook 2015 - Selected Figures

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Page 1: OECD Employment Outlook 2015 - Selected Figures

OECD Employment Outlook 2015 Selected figures

OECD Employment Outlook 20015 www.oecd.org/employment

Page 2: OECD Employment Outlook 2015 - Selected Figures

The jobs recovery remains incomplete

Employment-to-population ratio

As a percentage of the population aged 15 and over

OECD Employment Outlook 20015 www.oecd.org/employment

30

40

50

60

70

%

Current(Q4 2014)

Start of the crisis(Q4 2007)

Projected value(Q4 2016)

Page 3: OECD Employment Outlook 2015 - Selected Figures

Unemployment remains well above its pre-crisis levels in the

majority of OECD countries

Unemployment rate

As a percentage of the labour force

OECD Employment Outlook 20015 www.oecd.org/employment

0

5

10

15

20

25

%

Current value(Q4 2014)

Start of the crisis(Q4 2007)

Projected value(Q4 2016)

Page 4: OECD Employment Outlook 2015 - Selected Figures

Long-term unemployment has risen in a large majority of

countries

Incidence of long-term unemployed (more than one year)

As a percentage of total unemployed

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

%

Q4 2007 Q4 2014

OECD Employment Outlook 20015 www.oecd.org/employment

Page 5: OECD Employment Outlook 2015 - Selected Figures

The long-term career prospects of many recent school

leavers could be permanently compromised

NEET rate As a percentage of youth aged 15-29

0 10 20 30 40

LuxembourgJapan

NorwayNetherlands

DenmarkIceland

SwitzerlandSweden

GermanyAustriaFinland

Czech RepublicAustralia

New ZealandSloveniaCanada

United KingdomFranceEstonia

IsraelOECD

BelgiumPortugal

European UnionPoland

United StatesHungary

KoreaIreland

Slovak RepublicChile

SpainMexico

ItalyGreeceTurkey

2014

2007

OECD Employment Outlook 20015 www.oecd.org/employment

Page 6: OECD Employment Outlook 2015 - Selected Figures

Minimum wages can help underpin the incomes of

low-paid workers

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75%

2013 2007

Minimum wages As a percent of median wages of full-time employees

Note: Germany: the minimum-wage level in 2015 is expressed as proportion of the projected 2015 median wage.

OECD Employment Outlook 20015 www.oecd.org/employment

Page 7: OECD Employment Outlook 2015 - Selected Figures

Skills matters for wage inequality…

- 4.0

- 1.6

- 0.9

- 0.7

- 0.7

- 0.5

- 0.5

- 0.5

- 0.5

- 0.2

- 0.1

- 0.1

0.0

0.0

0.3

0.4

0.4

0.4

1.2

1.4

2.1

3.6

- 6 - 4 - 2 0 2 4

United States

France

Italy

England/N. Ireland

Canada

Australia

Germany

Ireland

Sweden

Spain

Flanders

Netherlands

Poland

Denmark

Finland

Austria

Norway

Estonia

Korea

Czech Republic

Japan

Slovak Republic

- 12.1

- 7.8

- 6.6

- 5.7

- 5.6

- 5.4

- 4.7

- 4.5

- 2.8

- 2.5

- 2.2

- 1.9

- 1.6

- 1.6

- 0.1

0.8

1.1

2.0

2.7

3.0

3.4

5.6

- 15 - 10 - 5 0 5 10

United States

Flanders

Estonia

Spain

Japan

Italy

Slovak Republic

Germany

Czech Republic

Ireland

Korea

Austria

Canada

Poland

Australia

France

Netherlands

England/N. Ireland

Denmark

Norway

Finland

Sweden

-7.9

-6.3

-4.6

-4.2

-3.9

-2.6

-2.5

-2.1

-1.3

-1.1

-0.8

-0.7

-0.4

-0.3

-0.1

0.3

0.6

1.1

1.4

1.5

2.6

3.2

- 10 - 5 0 5

Netherlands

Japan

Korea

Denmark

Estonia

Italy

Canada

Ireland

Germany

Poland

United States

Flanders

Finland

Spain

Austria

Slovak Republic

Czech Republic

Australia

France

England/N. Ireland

Sweden

Norway

Wage inequality and skills inequality

Percentage change in D9/D1 ratio after imposing the skills dispersion of the average

PIAAC country

Wage inequality and skills prices

Percentage change in D9/D1 ratio after imposing the skills prices of the

average PIAAC country

Wage inequality and skills use

Percentage change in Gini after imposing the distribution of numeracy proficiency onto that of numeracy use

OECD Employment Outlook 20015 www.oecd.org/employment

Page 8: OECD Employment Outlook 2015 - Selected Figures

…and skills play a role in explaining differences in wages

between workforce groups Wage ratio before and after controlling for skills distribution and price effects

0.80.91.01.11.21.31.41.51.61.7

Male/female wage ratio

0.60.70.80.91.01.11.21.31.41.51.6

Native/foreign-born wage ratio

0.80.91.01.11.21.31.41.51.61.7

Tertiary/non tertiary parental education wage ratio

0.91.01.11.21.31.41.51.61.7

Male-female wage ratio

Raw

After controlling forskills distribution

After controlling forskills prices

OECD Employment Outlook 20015 www.oecd.org/employment

Page 9: OECD Employment Outlook 2015 - Selected Figures

Key elements for successful activation strategies

Inclusive and resilient labour

markets

Opportunities

Employability Motivation

OECD Employment Outlook 20015 www.oecd.org/employment

Page 10: OECD Employment Outlook 2015 - Selected Figures

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

%

Public expenditure on Active Labour Market

Programmes (ALMPs) varies a lot across OECD countries

Expenditure on ALMPs As a percentage of GDP in 2012 or last year available

OECD Employment Outlook 20015 www.oecd.org/employment

Page 11: OECD Employment Outlook 2015 - Selected Figures

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90%

Involvement of PES in finding the present job As a percentage of those who have started their job

in the last 12 months

Unemployed who contacted the PES office to find work

As a percentage of all unemployed

The Public Employment Service can play

an important role as a job broker

OECD Employment Outlook 20015 www.oecd.org/employment

Page 12: OECD Employment Outlook 2015 - Selected Figures

Mobility only partially smooths out earnings inequality

Gini coefficient for active persons

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

Index

Long-term inequality

Short-term inequality

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

Index

Long-term inequality

Short-term inequality

Monthly earnings, simulation over 10 years

Monthly earnings, simulation over 20 years

OECD Employment Outlook 20015 www.oecd.org/employment

Page 13: OECD Employment Outlook 2015 - Selected Figures

Chronic unemployment is a key determinant of

low long-term earnings

- 10.00 20.00 30.00

United KingdomNetherlandsKoreaAustraliaSweden*JapanDenmarkCzech RepublicSwitzerlandTurkeyGermanyItalyUnited StatesBelgiumAveragePolandSlovak RepublicFranceAustriaEstoniaSloveniaPortugalSpainFinlandGreece

Women Bottom tercile Middle tercile Top tercile

Incidence of unemployment by tercile of the distribution of long-term earnings (cumulative months of unemployment over ten years)

0 10 20 30

Switzerland

Netherlands

Australia

Korea

Japan

United Kingdom

Belgium

Czech Republic

Sweden*

United States

Germany

Slovak Republic

France

Average

Italy

Poland

Turkey

Portugal

Slovenia

Denmark

Austria

Finland

Spain

Estonia

Greece

%

Men

0 10 20 30

United Kingdom

Netherlands

Korea

Australia

Sweden*

Japan

Denmark

Czech Republic

Switzerland

Turkey

Germany

Italy

United States

Belgium

Average

Poland

Slovak Republic

France

Austria

Estonia

Slovenia

Portugal

Spain

Finland

Greece

%

Women

OECD Employment Outlook 20015 www.oecd.org/employment

Page 14: OECD Employment Outlook 2015 - Selected Figures

Low long-term earnings are closely associated with

part-time work and, to a lesser extent, with temporary work

0 10 20 30

Turkey

Czech Rep.

United Kingdom

Netherlands

Estonia

Slovak Rep.

Austria

Switzerland

Belgium

Portugal

Australia

Denmark

Average

Poland

Finland

Germany

France

Spain

Italy

Greece

%

0 20 40 60 80

Turkey

Portugal

Greece

Czech Rep.

Estonia

Slovak Rep.

Spain

Italy

Finland

Poland

France

Average

United Kingdom

Denmark

Germany

Austria

Australia

Belgium

Switzerland

Netherlands

%

0 10 20 30 40

United Kingdom

Belgium

Switzerland

Estonia

Germany

Austria

Denmark

Slovak Rep.

Netherlands

Czech Rep.

France

Finland

Slovenia

Average

Italy

Turkey

Greece

Portugal

Spain

Poland

Australia

%

Incidence of involuntary part-time jobs

Incidence of voluntary part-time jobs

Incidence of temporary jobs

0 50Bottom tercile Middle tercile Top tercile

OECD Employment Outlook 20015 www.oecd.org/employment

Page 15: OECD Employment Outlook 2015 - Selected Figures

Improving job quality is a major challenge

for emerging economies

0

5

10

Earnings quality in PPP-adjusted US dollars (2010)

0

10

20

30

40

Labour market insecurity Percentage of time workers can expect to spend unemployed or extremely low-paid

05

10152025

Quality of the working environment As measured by the incidence of very long working hours

OECD Employment Outlook 20015 www.oecd.org/employment