P2 p _tailored_symfonie

P2P Income AccountPersonal P2P Account

Management22 May 2013

London: 16 High Holborn, London WC21V 6BX Prague: Klimentska 1216 / 46, 110 00 Praha 1

T: +44 20 3287 2690 F: +44 20 8616 7499 T: +420 222 191 008 F: +420 222 191 200e-mail: [email protected]

This publication has been prepared by Symfonie Capital (Symfonie) for information purposes only. It is not an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. Reasonable care has been taken to ensure that the information contained herein is not untrue or misleading, but no representation is made as to its accuracy or completeness. This document is confidential and proprietary to Symfonie. Transmission or publication of this document without the express prior consent of Symfonie is strictly prohibited. Symfonie Capital reserves all legal rights in connection with the publication of this document. © Symfonie Capital 2013.

Private and conditional. Unauthorised distribution strictly prohibited. ©2013 Symfonie Capital LLC 2

Smart Investing for High Income

• Technology allows individuals to access investment returns previously available only to banks and finance companies

• P2P yields range from 6% - 22%

• Clients can select their risk/reward preferences. We tailor the P2P investment program to meet each client’s needs.

• Principal re-payments of consumer and business loans monthly mean overall lower credit risk and more opportunities to re-invest cash flows

• Diversification across borrowers, countries, sectors, yields and maturities

• Research and risk management driven investment process

• Currency hedged

• Investors may select quarterly/annual principal/interest distributions

• Monthly investor reports


Peer to peer lending concept

• Evaluates borrowers and assigns a risk score

• Approves or rejects borrowers• Verifies borrower data• Posts borrower demand to website• Matches lenders and borrowers• Payment processing and loan servicing

•Peer to peer lending uses internet technology to create a marketplace of borrowers and lenders.

•Lenders earn higher rates of interest than they could earn on bank deposits.

•Lenders can diversify across many borrowers.

Borrowers save money by borrowing at rates less than what they would pay to banks and finance companies.

Lenders /Investors P2P Internet Service Borrowers


Peer to Peer Lending Around the World

LendingClub

Prosper

Circleback

FairPlace

Cumplo

Prestadero

Zopa

FundingCircle

RateSetter

Smava

Auxmoney

Kokos

Isepankur

Lubbus

Comunitae

Babyloan

Friendsclear

ZltyMelon

Country Name of website

North & South America Europe Asia


CreditEase

Ppdai

Aqush

Maneo

Zopa

DhanaX


More than 35 providers around the world, more than $3bn in loans annually, growing at least 50% per year.

Source: Symfonie research


Peer to Peer Lending Gains with Experience

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Default rates ROI

Default rates have declined…

…and investment returns have improved

Source: Symfonie estimates, based on data provided by P2P marketplace providers.

Over the last 4 years P2P marketplace providers have steadily improved credit modeling. Investor returns have improved from about 5% in 2008 to about 12% in 2012.


Investment Process – Research Driven

Loan SelectionAsset class selection Risk/return analysis

Default rate modeling

MONITORINGOn-going review of loan performance and service

provider activities.Working with service

providers to restructuring loans if necessary.

INVESTMENT EXECUTIONCIO approves loan purchase

Trade Executed

SIZING AND RISKDiversification of among loans, service providers, loan markets

Market AssessmentEvaluations of P2P servicesProprietary screening filtersMacro-economic research

Relative value comparisons


Key Risks

• Deterioration of Credit Quality – During recessions default rates are likely to increase. We try to manage this risk by diversifying the portfolio among many countries, many borrowers, varying the range of credit profiles in the portfolio and by increasing weighting in relatively safer, more liquid assets.

• Poor Credit Scoring Models – A service provider that errs with the credit scoring model risks mis-classifying clients by systematically over estimating or under estimating the probability of default. We manage this risk in the due diligence and monitoring processes, where we evaluate each provider’s credit scoring model. We also track and monitor each providers overall portfolio statistics so we can observe changes over time.

• Poor Service Provider Quality – The Peer to Peer and Microfinance lending processes hinge on the quality of the service provider. We manage this risk through due diligence on providers and by diversifying among many providers

• Reinvestment Risk – Peer to peer lending is becoming a more attractive investment vehicle. At times the service providers may have a queue of investors waiting to put cash to work. We manage this risk by diversifying among websites and by having the flexibility to invest in other fixed income assets.


Scoring & Reporting – Basis for Credit Risk Models

• Consumer credit scoring agencies exist in most countries around the world• Multinational consumer credit scoring agencies include FICO, Experian, TransUnion, Equifax,

• Key variables include:– Payment history– Amount owed– Length of history – Credit utilisation– Number of credit lines open– New credit enquiries

Consumer credit registries operate in most countries around the world. Banks and credit providers transmit and receive credit data regularly.

Standard practice among P2P marketplace providers is to present each borrower’s credit report detail and credit score. The providers offer not only data from a nationally recognised agency, but also their own credit score calculation.


Transparency & Lending Standards

• Income• Job title• Place of employment• If a business loan, name of business, type of business, registration number, names of Directors• If a business loan, financial history• City/Region of residence• Total consumer / business debt outstanding• Total consumer line usage• Delinquency history• Debt/Income ratio• Rent/Mortgage payment• Stated purpose of loan• Size, tenor of loan• Number of lenders funding the loan• Independent credit score• P2P marketplace provider credit score

P2P marketplace providers offer a diverse array of borrower risk classes also offer comprehensive data on borrowers, made available in downloadable data format. Data include:


Symfonie P2P Key Investment Considerations

Step 1 - Provider selectionOwnership and management of the providerCredit scoring processRange and quality of borrower data gathered and presentedData presentation transparencyProvider practices, policies and proceduresGross and net returns on loans originatedLoan recovery policy and processOperating history to date

Step 2 - Loan selectionVerified income and employmentBorrower debt/income ratiosBorrower debt outstandingHistory of responsible debt managementExternal credit scores

The goal is to choose good providers, understand how they classify borrowers and then to filter the borrower pools to find loans that offer the best reward/risk characteristics.


Overview of P2P Lending Sites in Europe and the US

Country Website Type of LoansAnnual Loan Volume

Loan GradesTenors (Yrs)

Rates Available

US Prosper.com Consumer $200 mn A‐E+ 1,3,5 6% ‐ 30%US Lendingclub.com Consumer $760 mn A‐G 3,5 6% ‐ 25%UK Zopa.co.uk Consumer GBP100 mn A‐B 3,5 5% ‐ 8%UK Ratesetter.com Consumer GBP50 mn A‐B 0‐5 3% ‐ 6%UK Fundingcircle.com Business GBP60 mn A‐C 3,5 4% ‐ 10%UK Thincats.com Business GBP25 mn A‐C 0‐5 8% ‐ 11%France Pret‐dUnion.fr Consumer EUR35 mn A‐B 2,5 4%‐6%Estonia isepankur.ee Consumer EUR2 mn A‐G 0‐5 15%‐30%Slovakia zltymelon.sk Consumer EUR2 mn A‐D 1,2,3 5% ‐ 28%Spain Comunitae.com Consumer EUR2 mn A‐C 1,2,4 8%‐12%Germany auxmoney.de Consumer EUR25mn A‐C 1,2,3,4,5 6% ‐ 14%

The range of lending opportunities is continually expanding.

Most sites offer both primary and secondary investment opportunities.

Most sites can setup accounts for legal entities.

Source: The websites and Symfonie. The list is illustrative only and is not intended to be a complete or authoritative listing of all P2P marketplace providers. Terms, conditions and actual investment results may differ from those presented here. The Fund’s actual investments might not include all the above providers and might also include others that are not presented here.


Illustration – FICO Score vs Loan Grade

Source: Lendingclub.com and Prosper.com 2012 Annual Report data. Default Probabilities calculated by US Government Consumer Finance Bureau, 2012

Platform providers usually provide an external credit score (common in the US is based on the FICO system) as well as their own credit grade. Higher FICO scores typically indicate consumers less likely to default.

Average Interest Rates Per Loan Grade

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Lending Club Prosper Defualt Probability


Illustration - Credit Rating vs. Interest Rate

Source: Lendingclub.com and Prosper.com 2012 Annual Report data.

Average Interest Rates Per Loan Grade

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Lending Club Prosper


Illustration - Credit Usage vs. Loan Grade

Source: Lendingclub.com Annual Report 2012

Predictably, higher levels of debt outstanding and higher credit line usage are key determinants of default probability. Within each loan band there can be wide variance around the average, so further filtering and analysis is required.

Lending Club Borrower Statistics

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Average Revolving Balance Average % Utilisation


Post-default Returns Per Loan Grade

Source: Lendingclub.com Annual Report 2012

Illustration: - High risk scores and higher interest rates do not necessarily indicate higher return. Our investment process applies fundamental analysis to filter out loans we believe are relatively likely to generate loan losses.

Lending Club Interest Rates

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Default Losses Effective Net Interest Rate Gross Interest Rate


Stated Net Investor Returns

Net Investor Returns

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Loan Grade

Prosper Lending Club

Source: LendingClub, Prosper, Annual Reports 2012. Based on aggregated loans issued since 2008/2009 to present.


Loan Default Rate Overview

•Loan losses rates are based on total monetary issuance to date

• Prosper, Lending Club and Zopa have the longest history and the biggest loan pools

• Lending Club reports having made about 21,000 class C loans with since 2009 with an average annual interest rate of 14.5%, of which about 3.6% charged off.

• Prosper reports having made about 6,000 class C loans since 2009 with average annual interest rate of 20% of which about 3.1% have been charged off.

• Symfonie estimates that as many as 10-15% of the higher risk category loans are charged off over a period of 3 to 5 years. The combination of high interest rates among peforming loans and payments of principal and interest between origination and the time to default in the non-peforming loans compensates, accounting for positive investment performance over the life of the loan pool.

Country Website A B C D E F G

US Prosper.com 1.1% 1.8% 2.6% 3.1% 7.2% 12.2% 8.2%

US Lendingclub.com 0.8% 1.7% 2.6% 3.1% 3.6% 4.8% 7.2%

UK Zopa.co.uk 1.0% 2.0%

UK Ratesetter.com 0.4%

UK Fundingcircle.com 0.7% 1.7% 2.3%

UK Thincats.com 1.5% 1.0%

France Pret‐dUnion.fr 0.4% 0.4%

Estonia isepankur.ee 3.3% 6.0% 4.8% 5.5% 8.2% 16.4%

Germany auxmoney.de 1.0% 1.5% 2.8% 2.9% 3.8% 3.4%

Source: The Providers and Symfonie estimates.


Investment Methodology - Loans

• P2P Provider Governance – we analyse each market provider’s corporate structure, rules, policies, procedures prior to committing funds.

• Credit model – we evaluate each P2P market provider’s credit scoring model prior to committing funds.

• Disposable Income vs. Credit - we review borrower credit metrics and focus on overall debt level, debt/income ratios, monthly payment/disposable income, residential and employment situation.

• Secondaries -– most P2P market providers offer secondary trading in loans to enable lenders to find liquidity. We exploit opportunities to buy performing loans from secondary market listing that trade at discount and offer higher yield.

• Relative Value – we compare default losses across credit score categories and identify favorable risk/reward ratios.

• Credit Deterioration – where we believe credit quality in particular class of borrowers is likely to deteriorate we look for exit opportunities in the secondary market.

• Low return potential – we avoid the thin margin, premium loan segment, where risks of underestimated default rates are high.

• Relative Value – we compare risk/reward in P2P loans versus other credit opportunities. Where P2P loans don’t reflect good value, we focus on classical credit securities.

BUYS SELLS

All things equal, Symfonie prefers to invest with P2P marketplace providers that facilitate liquidity by organising secondary trades in P2P loans. There can be no assurance, however, that the fund will have the ability to liquidate its investments through secondary trading.


Number of Loans Charged Off

We assess risk/reward ratios by analysing loan losses not only by amount of money but also in terms of the percentage of loans.

Source: Prosper.com and Lendingclub.com Annual Reports 2012. Future performance may differ from past performance.

Charge-offs - Percent of Loans

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Risk Grade A-GProsper.com Lendingclub.com


Symfonie EM Credit – Consistent Outperformance

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Hedged WE XOVER

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Hedged EMCI

USDLIBOR 1M

Symfonie

HEDGED WE HY

Source: Symfonie. Chart above reflects the performance of the credit strategy implemented within the MT Thaler New Europe Fund during the time Symfonie principal Michael Sonenshine was responsible for the Fund’s investments in credit instruments.


Symfonie Global High Yield – Successful Track Record

Symfonie Global HY

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Source: Symfonie. Chart above reflects the performance of the Ceska Sporitelna High Yield Fund during the time Symfonie principal Miichael Sonenshine was responsible as investment advisor to the Fund.


Ideal Investor Profile

• Investors seeking relatively stable returns over time but who may not have sufficient credit expertise

• Investors who understand the Peer to Peer lending and are looking for more diversification than they can achieve on their own.

• High Net Worth Investors and Family Offices seeking a relatively high yield for savings and who are able to accept moderate level of risk.

• The product is ideal for investors who are willing to match the term of their investment to the underlying maturity of the portfolio.


Investment Structure

Structure and Investment Portfolio• Peer to Peer loans, selected based on individual client mandate• Diversified across countries, borrowers, maturities• P2P loans pay interest & principal monthly• Client funds in segregated accounts• Management fees ranging from 0.5% to 1.5% of client assets, subject to

agreement and depending on complexity of client demand


Symfonie Investment Team

Michael Sonenshine, CFA – Investment Principal

Mr. Sonenshine More than 20 years of experience in banking and investment management. He specialises in credit investments. His investment process is research driven with an emphasis on fundamental analysis. He founded Symfonie Capital in 2012.

2003-2012, MT Thaler, Prague/London: CEO/Partner, Head of Research. Investment funds focused on central and eastern Europe and pan-European credit markets

2000-2003 CSFB, London: European High Yield Debt Research

1998-2000 ING Bank, London: European High Yield Debt Research

1995-1998 ING Investment Management, Prague: CEO, Czech Republic

1994-1995 ING Bank, London: Analyst

1993-1994 Driehaus Capital, Prague: Analyst

1992-1993 Evrobank, Prague: Advisor

MBA William Simon School, University of Rochester

B.A., Tufts University


Symfonie Investment Team

Zvezda Dermendzieva, Ph.D. – Quantitative Credit ResearchMs. Dermendzieva is an award winning economist specialising in statistical data models. Using data files supplied by the P2P platforms Ms. Dermendziveva develops analytical models and filtering tools aimed at reducing the number of default loans in the portfolio. Ms. Dermendzieva’s professional experience includes econometric analysis of insurance data for one of Europe’s leading insurance companies, insurance risk modeling and pricing, economic research for the German Ministry of Finance and analysing longitudinal data at then National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies in Tokyo, Japan.

Professional Experience•Generali Insurance Group, Prague, Czech Republic – econometric data analysis, risk and price models•Osteuropa Institut, Regensburg, Germany – economic and finance research for the German Ministry of Finance•National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies, Tokyo, Japan – visiting professor, econometric analysis and financial modeling

Academic Experience•Ph.D., Economics, CERGE-EI, Prague, Czech Republic •M .A., Economics, University of the State of New York, CERGE-EI, Prague, Czech Republic•B.A., Economics, American University, Sofia, Bulgaria, Graduated Magma Cum Laude

Awards & Publications•Best CEE Ph.D. Thesis - UniCredit & Universities Foundation•Boston Consulting Group Strategy Cup – finalist•Citigroup Endowment – merit scholarship•CERGE-EI – merit scholarship•Philip Morris – merit scholarship•“Emigration from the South Caucusus – Who Goes Abroad and What are the Economic Implications “(Post-Communist Economics, 23(3))•“How Does Overconfidence Affect Individual Decision Making?” (Proceedings of the International Conference Experiments in Economic Sciences, Kyoto, Japan)


Symfonie Advisory Board

The Symfonie Advisory Board is a group of highly experienced financial professionals. Symfonie has regular meetings with the Advisory Board to discuss the Fund’s investments, strategy, research on P2P providers. Advisory Board members are independent of Symfonie and do not have legal or regulatory authority or status within Symfonie.

Willem NavesHolland

• More than 25 years of experience in investment and corporate banking• Twenty years experience in credit trading management positions in the ING Group - Amsterdam, London, Sao Paolo• Global co-Head of Fixed Income trading at ING• Head of EMEA Equity and Fixed Income sales and trading product• Banking advisory projects focusing on credit and risk management in Macedonia, Poland, El Salvador and Indonesia• Erasmus University degree in Law

Pavel KohoutCzech Republic• Fifteen years experience in economic analysis and investment management• Director of Strategy at Partners Advisors, a leading Czech financial advisory firm• Author of several books on economics• Member of Czech National Economics Advisory Board• Member, Expert Panel of Advisors to Czech Ministry of Finance


Symfonie Advisory Board

The Symfonie Advisory Board is a group of highly experienced financial professionals. Symfonie has regular meetings with the Advisory Board to discuss the Fund’s investments, strategy, research on P2P providers. Advisory Board members are independent of Symfonie and do not have legal or regulatory authority or status within Symfonie.

Maarten van den BeltUK• More than twenty five years of experience in investment and corporate banking• Credit risk management and loan officer positions at NMB Bank, the Netherlands• Corporate high yield bond management during the formative years of the European high yield market• Senior management positions in treasury and lending at ING Bank, Raiffeisen Bank and West LB• Developed and managed capital markets trading and consumer banking businesses in Tokyo, Moscow and London• Managing partner responsible for alternative asset manger with $400 mn AUM focused on investments in Russia• Non-Executive Directorships with TMM, a leading Ukrainian real estate developer and Pristav, one of Russia’s largest c cconsumer debt collection agencies• University of Utrecht, Social and Business law

Charles KleinChina• Twenty years experience in corporate finance and treasury management• Management positions in General Motors with responsibility for currency portfolios, asset acquisition and disposition and financial reporting systems• Resident in China, fluent in German and Russian• MBA, Wharton School of Management


Disclaimer

• This document has been prepared by Symfonie Capital Investment Management LLC (“Symfonie Capital”) for persons reasonably believed by Symfonie Capital to be persons of the categories to whom Symfonie Capital are permitted to communicate financial promotions. This document does not constitute or form part of any offer or invitation to sell, or the solicitation of an offer to subscribe or purchase any investment. Symfonie Capital believes that the information it provides is accurate as at the date of publication, but no warranty of its accuracy or completeness is given and no liability in respect of errors or omissions is accepted by Symfonie Capital or any partner or employee of Symfonie Capital. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance.

• This presentation is for illustration and discussion purposes only and is not intended to be, neither should it be construed or used as, financial, legal, tax or investment advice nor an offer to sell, nor a solicitation of any offer to buy, an interest in any of the funds managed by Symfonie Capital (the “Funds”). None of the Funds have shares registered under the U.S. Securities Act of 1933, as amended. None of the Funds will be registered under the U.S. Investment Company Act of 1940, as amended. Any offer or solicitation of an investment in any of the Funds may be made only by delivery of a respective fund’s Confidential Offering Memorandum to qualified prospective investors.

• This presentation is as of the date indicated, is not complete, and does not contain certain material information about the Funds, including important disclosures and risk factors associated with an investment in any of the Funds.

• Any indications of interest from prospective investors in response to this material involves no obligation or commitment of any kind. Subscriptions can be made only on the basis of a Confidential Offering Memorandum to qualified investors. The investment objectives and methods summarized in this document represent our current focus and intentions.

• There is no assurance that Symfonie Capital will achieve its objectives or that its investment process or risk management will be successful. Investors may lose money. No representation is made that any of the Funds will or are likely to achieve their respective objectives or that any investor will or is likely to achieve results comparable to any that may be shown or will make any profit at all or will be able to avoid incurring substantial losses. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

• This presentation does not take into account the particular investment objectives or financial circumstances of any specific person who may receive it. Before making any investment, you should thoroughly review the particular fund’s Confidential Offering Memorandum with your financial and tax advisor to determine whether an investment in the fund is suitable for you in light of your financial situation.

• This presentation is subject to revision and updating. Certain information has been provided by third-party sources and, although believed to be reliable, it has not been independently verified and its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. This presentation is confidential, is intended only for the person to whom it has been delivered and under no circumstance may a copy be shown, copied, transmitted, or otherwise given to any person other than the authorized recipient. Symfonie Capital is solely responsible for the content herein.

Economy & Finance

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