Upload
state-of-utah-salt-lake-city
View
346
Download
1
Tags:
Embed Size (px)
DESCRIPTION
Local government seminar in Utah on the economy. For more information, please visit jobs.utah.gov
Citation preview
The Economy—How are We
REALLY doing?
THE FABLE OF THE BLIND MEN AND THE ELEPHANT
The Economy
Economic analysis based on monthly changes in data is misleading.
It’sFlying!
It’s going to crash!
It’s stagnating!
It’s in a recession!
It’s
hit a wall! It’sin
recovery!
“Economy Stagnates”
GDP Growing at a moderate rate
United States Real Gross Domestic Product
1/1/2
007
7/1/2
007
1/1/2
008
7/1/2
008
1/1/2
009
7/1/2
009
1/1/2
010
7/1/2
010
1/1/2
011
7/1/2
01112,600
12,700
12,800
12,900
13,000
13,100
13,200
13,300
13,400
13,500Billions of Chained Dollars
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011-2.5%
-2.0%
-1.5%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
Quarterly Change in U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Average Quarterly Change for the last 30 years—0.7 percent)
“Hiring Grinds to a Halt”
Jobs are Growing
United States Seasonally Adjusted Nonfarm Jobs
Jan-07Jul-0
7
Jan-08Jul-0
8
Jan-09Jul-0
9
Jan-10Jul-1
0
Jan-11Jul-1
1
Jan-12128,000
130,000
132,000
134,000
136,000
138,000
140,000
Thousands of Jobs
United StatesYear-Over Change in NonFarm Jobs
Jan 2007
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan 2008
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan 2009
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan 2010
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan 2011
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan 2012
Feb
Mar
-6%
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
Source: Utah Dept. of Workforce Services; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
U.S. Job Growth in Review
2.2
0.0
-1.1
0.0
1.11.7 1.8
1.1
-0.6
-4.3
-0.8
1.1
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
U.S. Percent Change in Nonfarm Jobs30-year average is 1.2 percent.
Utah Department of Workforce Services.
Year-Over Change in Nonfarm Jobs
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
“Unemployment Still Stalled”
Unemployment is Trending Down
United States Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment
Rates
Jan
2007
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
2008
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
2009
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
2010
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
2011
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
2012
Feb
Mar
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
Source: Utah Dept. of Workforce Services; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The Number of Discouraged U.S. Workers has declined along with the Unemployment Rate
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%Year-to-Year Change in Discouraged Workers
Unemployment Rate
Year
-to-Y
ear C
hang
e in
Disc
oura
ged
Wor
kers
Seas
onal
ly A
djus
ted
Une
mpl
oym
ent R
ate
Source. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Unemployment Insurance Claims “exploded.”
Claims are Trending Down
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
United States Four-Week Moving Average of Seasonally Adjusted
Initial Claims
Source: U.S. Department of Labor
“Retail Sales Disappoint”
Sales have grown consistently
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012140,000
145,000
150,000
155,000
160,000
165,000
170,000
175,000
180,000
185,000
$ M
illio
ns
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
United States Real Retail and Food Service Sales
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120
5
10
15
20
25
Mill
ions
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.
United States Light Truck and Car Sales
“Manufacturing Index Plunges”
Manufacturing has steadily Improved
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 201280
85
90
95
100
105
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
United States Industrial Production Index
United States New Factory Orders for Nondefense Capital Goods
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
$ M
illio
ns
Source: U.S. Census Bureau.
“Housing Starts Surge”
Housing starts remain low. . .
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Thou
sand
s
Source: U.S. Census Bureau.
United States Housing Starts
Beware. . .
Recently, the economic “spin” is more positive.
In the Interest of Full Disclosure
CRITICALMASS
CRITICALMASS
CRITICALMASS
CRITICALMASS
CRITICALMASS
CRITICALMASS
Excuse me for nagging
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968
U.S. Year-Over Change in Nonfarm Jobs
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Recessionary period as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research.
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988
U.S. Year-Over Change in Nonfarm Jobs
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Recessionary period as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research.
U.S. Year-Over Change in Nonfarm Jobs
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Recessionary period as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research.
My Not-So-Secret Formula
• Year-Over Percent Change in Nonfarm Jobs.– “Year-over” change between one month and the same
month the previous year. (March 2010 employment compared to March 2009 employment).
– Employment data is current and some of the best data around.
– It’s easy.– Available for small areas.– Not what the Bureau of Labor publishes in their press
release—not seasonally adjusted.
Most Importantly. . .
• It works!• Nationally, when year-
over growth rates trend down and eventually result in job loss, there has always a recession as defined by NBER.
The Local Story
Year-Over Change in Nonfarm Jobs
Jan 2006
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan 2007
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan 2008
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan 2009
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan 2010
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan 2011
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan 2012
Feb
-10%
-6%
-2%
2%
6%
10%
14%
Washington County United States Utah
Source: Utah Dept. of Workforce Services; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Washington County Year-Over Job ChangeDecember 2011 (preliminary)
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Transportation
Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Prof/Business Svcs
Education/Health/Social Svcs
Leisure/Hospitality
Other Services
Government
29
97
261
140
212
230
8
7
32
12
73
386
111
173
Up 1,770 jobs total
Source: Utah Dept. of Workforce Services; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Percent Change in Nonfarm Jobs by Industry December 2010-December 2011
Government
Other Services
Leisure/Hospitality
Ed/Health/Social Svcs
Prof/Business Svcs
Financial Activities
Information
Trade/Transportation/Utilities
Manufacturing
Construction
Mining
Total
2%
6%
6%
1%
0%
2%
1%
5%
12%
3%
24%
4%
2%
2%
3%
3%
5%
2%
2%
3%
3%
1%
11%
3%
UtahWashington
Source: Utah Dept. of Workforce Services.
Washington County New Hires
Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Local Employment Dynamics.
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
New Hires
4-Qtr Moving Av-erage
Mining<1%
Construction7%
Manufacturing5%
Trade/ Trans-portation/Utili-
ties24%
Information2%
Financial Activi-ties4%
Professional/ Business Services
8%
Education/ Health/ Social
Services17%
Leisure/ Hos-pitality Ser-
vices14%
Other Services3%
Government16%
Washington County Industry Em-ployment Distribution
Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services.
Year-Over Change in Nonfarm Jobs
Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Jan 2008
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan 2009
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan 2010
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan 2011
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan 2012
Feb
Mar
Apr
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%Iron U.S. Utah
Source: Utah Dept. of Workforce Services; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Source: Utah Dept of Workforce Services.
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Transportation
Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Prof/Business Svcs
Education/Health/Social Svcs
Leisure/Hospitality
Other Services
Government
8
-130
30
71
-21
10
5
-18
1
-116
-6
193
16
85
Up 128 jobs total
Iron County Year-Over Job ChangeDecember 2011 (preliminary)
Percent Change in Nonfarm Jobs by Industry December 2010-December 2011
Government
Other Services
Leisure/Hospitality
Ed/Health/Social Svcs
Prof/Business Svcs
Financial Activities
Information
Trade/Transportation/Utilities
Manufacturing
Construction
Mining
Total
2%
5%
10%
0%
-10%
0%
-14%
2%
30%
-20%
9%
1%
2%
2%
3%
3%
5%
2%
2%
3%
3%
1%
11%
3%
Utah
Iron
Source: Utah Dept. of Workforce Services.
Iron County New Hires
Utah Department of Workforce Services.
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 20
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
New Hires
4-Qtr Moving Av-erage
Mining0%
Construction5%
Manufacturing9%
Trade/Transporta-tion/Utilities
18%
Information1%
Financial Activities5%
Professional/ Business Services
7%
Education/Health/Social
Services11%
Leisure/ Hospital-ity Services
12%
Other Services2%
Government29%
Iron County Industry Employment Distribu-tion
Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services.
Year-Over Change in Nonfarm Jobs
Jan 2006
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan 2007
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan 2008
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan 2009
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan 2010
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan 2011
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan 2012
Feb
Mar
Apr
-10%
-6%
-2%
2%
6%
10%
14%
United States Utah Kane County
Source: Utah Dept. of Workforce Services; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Kane County Year-Over Job ChangeDecember 2011 (preliminary)
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Transportation
Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Prof/Business Svcs
Education/Health/Social Svcs
Leisure/Hospitality
Other Services
Government
0
-23
0
-1
-39
5
0
2
10
9
27
49
-8
6
Up 40 jobs total
Source: Utah Dept. of Workforce Services; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Percent Change in Nonfarm Jobs by Industry December 2010-December 2011
Government
Other Services
Leisure/Hospitality
Ed/Health/Social Svcs
Prof/Business Svcs
Financial Activities
Information
Trade/Transportation/Utilities
Manufacturing
Construction
Mining
Total
1%
-2%
8%
34%
17%
10%
13%
-8%
0%
-23%
0%
2%
2%
2%
3%
3%
5%
2%
2%
3%
3%
1%
11%
3%
Utah Kane
Source: Utah Dept. of Workforce Services.
MiningNA
Construction3% Manufacturing
3% Trade/ Transporta-tion/ Utilities
14%
InformationNA
Financial Activities4%
Professional/Business Services
2%
Education/Health/Social Services
4%
Leisure/ Hospitality Services
30%
Other Services15%
Government25%
Kane County 2011 Industry Employment Distribution
Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services.
Kane County New Hires
Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Local Employment Dynamics.
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 20
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200New Hires 4-Qtr Moving Average
Year-Over Change in Nonfarm Jobs
Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Jan 2008
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan 2009
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan 2010
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan 2011
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan 2012
Feb
Mar
Apr
-16%-14%-12%-10%
-8%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%
10%12%
Beaver U.S. Utah
Source: Utah Dept. of Workforce Services; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Year-Over Change in Nonfarm Jobs
Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Jan 2008
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan 2009
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan 2010
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan 2011
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
-16%-14%-12%-10%
-8%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%
10%12%
Beaver Total
Beaver Without Construction
Source: Utah Dept. of Workforce Services; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Beaver County Year-Over Job ChangeDecember 2011 (preliminary)
Source: Utah Dept. of Workforce Services; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Transportation
Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Prof/Business Svcs
Education/Health/Social Svcs
Leisure/Hospitality
Other Services
Government
27
-67
6
-2
13
7
-2
-1
-3
-1
1
-4
2
-22
Down 46 jobs total
Percent Change in Nonfarm Jobs by Industry December 2010-December 2011
Government
Other Services
Leisure/Hospitality
Ed/Health/Social Svcs
Prof/Business Svcs
Financial Activities
Information
Trade/Transportation/Utilities
Manufacturing
Construction
Mining
Total
-3%
6%
-1%
2%
-7%
-6%
-50%
16%
9%
-46%
129%
0%
2%
2%
3%
3%
5%
2%
2%
3%
3%
1%
11%
3%
Utah Beaver
Source: Utah Dept. of Workforce Services.
Covered Agriculture19%
Mining1%
Construction6%
Manufacturing3%
Trade/Transportation/Utili-
ties21%
Information<1%
Financial Activities2%
Professional and Business Services1%
Educational, Health and Social Services
2%
Leisure and Hospitality14%
Other Services1%
Government28%
Beaver 2011 Industrial Employment Dis-tribution
Source: Utah Dept. of Workforce Services.
Beaver County New Hires
Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Local Employment Dynamics.
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 20
100
200
300
400
500
600
New Hires 4-Qtr Moving Average
Year-Over Change in Nonfarm Jobs
Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Jan 2008
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan 2009
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan 2010
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan 2011
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan 2012
Feb
Mar
Apr
-16%
-12%
-8%
-4%
0%
4%
8%
12%
16%
20%
Garfield U.S. Utah
Source: Utah Dept. of Workforce Services; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Garfield County Year-Over Job ChangeDecember 2011 (preliminary)
Source: Utah Dept. of Workforce Services; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Transportation
Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Prof/Business Svcs
Education/Health/Social Svcs
Leisure/Hospitality
Other Services
Government
0
-60
7
-3
27
0
0
-19
-6
-1
-46
-81
3
-4
Down 183 jobs total
Percent Change in Nonfarm Jobs by Industry December 2010-December 2011
Government
Other Services
Leisure/Hospitality
Ed/Health/Social Svcs
Prof/Business Svcs
Financial Activities
Information
Trade/Transportation/Utilities
Manufacturing
Construction
Mining
Total
-0.7%
25.0%
-14.6%
-17.5%
-4.8%
-18.8%
-17.0%
11.7%
20.6%
-57.7%
0.0%
-9.4%
1.5%
2.0%
2.8%
3.3%
5.4%
1.8%
1.8%
2.8%
3.2%
0.5%
11.3%
2.8%
Utah
Garfield
Source: Utah Dept. of Workforce Services.
Construction3%
Manufacturing2%
Trade/ Transporta-tion/ Utilities
11%
Financial Activities1%
Professional/Business Services
1%
Education/Health/ Social Services
23%
Leisure/Hospitality Services
42%
Other Services1%
Government28%
Garfield County Industry Employment Distribu-tion
Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services.
Garfield County New Hires
Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Local Employment Dynamics.
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 20
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
New Hires4-Qtr Moving Average
Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rates
Jan 2009
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan 2010
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan 2011
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan 2012
Feb
Mar
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
Utah U.S.
Kane Washington
Iron
Source: Utah Dept. of Workforce Services; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rates
Jan 2009
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan 2010
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan 2011
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan 2012
Feb
Mar
Apr
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
12%
13%
Utah U.S. Beaver Garfield
Source: Utah Dept. of Workforce Services; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Washington County Change in Gross Taxable Sales
Source: Utah State Tax Commission.
1st
Qtr
2006
2nd
3rd
4th
Qtr
1st
Qtr
2007
2nd
3rd
4th
1st
Qtr
2008
2nd
3rd
4th
1st
Qtr
2009
2nd
3rd
4th
1st
Qtr
2010
2nd
3rd
4th
1st
Qtr
2011
2nd
3rd
4th
21%
13%
7%3%
-4%
0%
-3%-3%-1%
-17%-14%
-19%
-11%
-2%
0%4%
-13%
-6%
-11%
-7%
4% 3%7%
10%
Iron County Change in Gross Taxable Sales
Source: Utah State Tax Commission.
1st
Qtr
2006
2nd
3rd
4th
Qtr
1st
Qtr
2007
2nd
3rd
4th
1st
Qtr
2008
2nd
3rd
4th
1st
Qtr
2009
2nd
3rd
4th
1st
Qtr
2010
2nd
3rd
4th
1st
Qtr
2011
2nd
3rd
4th
20%20%
13%
9%
1%3%
0%
1% 1%
-4%
-10%
-14%-16%-17%
-4%-4%-6%
4%
-8%-6%
4%
-2%
3%
10%
Kane County Change in Gross Taxable Sales
Source: Utah State Tax Commission.
1st
Qtr
2006
2nd
3rd
4th
Qtr
1st
Qtr
2007
2nd
3rd
4th
1st
Qtr
2008
2nd
3rd
4th
1st
Qtr
2009
2nd
3rd
4th
1st
Qtr
2010
2nd
3rd
4th
1st
Qtr
2011
2nd
3rd
4th
25%
16%14%10%10%
0%-6%
1%
15%
-11%
21%
-1%
-21%
12%
-28%
-4%
35%
16%
27%
-4%
-18%
9%5% 7%
Beaver County Change in Gross Taxable Sales
Source: Utah State Tax Commission.
1st
Qtr
2006
2nd
3rd
4th
Qtr
1st
Qtr
2007
2nd
3rd
4th
1st
Qtr
2008
2nd
3rd
4th
1st
Qtr
2009
2nd
3rd
4th
1st
Qtr
2010
2nd
3rd
4th
1st
Qtr
2011
2nd
3rd
4th
5%
19%11%
17%6%
16%14%19%
72%
-8%
-4%
-6%
-37%
20%
-2%
-17%
17%28%
11%
58%
16%
42%
-6%
-30%
Garfield County Change in Gross Taxable Sales
Source: Utah State Tax Commission.
1st
Qtr
2006
2nd
3rd
4th
Qtr
1st
Qtr
2007
2nd
3rd
4th
1st
Qtr
2008
2nd
3rd
4th
1st
Qtr
2009
2nd
3rd
4th
1st
Qtr
2010
2nd
3rd
4th
1st
Qtr
2011
2nd
3rd
4th
13%9%
1% 1%4%
12%15%14%
31%
9%
15%
-10%
-16%
-3%-8%
7%
-4%
5%
11%
5% 5% 3%
-8%
3%
Year-over Change in MSA Area Housing Price Index (HPI)
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
St. George
Salt Lake
Las Vegas
Pe
rce
nt
Ch
an
ge
Source: Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, http://www.ofheo.gov/hpi.aspx.
St. George MSA Housing Price Index
Source: Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, http://www.ofheo.gov/hpi.aspx.
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20110
50
100
150
200
250
Source: Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, http://www.ofheo.gov/hpi.aspx.
Housing Affordability Continues to Improve
1st Qtr
2006
2nd
3rd
4th
1st Qtr
2007
2nd
3rd
4th
1st Qtr
2008
2nd
3rd
4th
1st Qtr
2009
3rd
1st Qtr
2010
3rd
4th
1st Qtr
2011
2nd
3rd
4th
1st Qtr
2012
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
U.S.Washington County
Source: National Association of Homebuilders; Wells Fargo Bank.
Housing Opportunity Index—% of homes which are affordable to families with the median income.
“Serious” Foreclosure Rates June 2011
Salt Lake City MSA
Provo-Orem MSA
Ogden-Clearfield MSA
Logan MSA
St. George MSA
Las Vegas/Henderson MSA
4.4%
3.8%
3.7%
2.1%
4.8%
12.0%
3.6%
3.1%
3.0%
1.7%
3.8%
8.2%
Foreclosure Rate
90+ Days Deliquency Rate
8.0%
6.9%
6.7%
8.6%
20.2%
3.8%
Source:: Analysis of LPS applied Analytics data by Local Initiative Support Corporation.
June 2010-June 2011 Percentage Point Change in “Serious”
Foreclosure RatesSalt Lake City MSA
Provo-Orem MSA
Ogden-Clearfield MSA
Logan MSA
St. George MSA
Las Vegas/Henderson MSA
-0.4
-1.3
-0.4
-0.5
-3.0
-4.1
Source:: Analysis of LPS applied Analytics data by Local Initiative Support Corporation.
Washington County Dwelling Unit Permits
980
1,266
2,114
2,697
2,0191,929
1,5141,687
1,519
1,267
1,740
1,995
2,678
3,7943,860
2,256
1,888
682 605
870 846
* Source: U of U; Utah Bureau of Economic and Business Research.
2009—lowest number since 1989. . .
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
Annual Change in Washington County New Dwelling Unit Permits
*January-October 2011.Source: University of Utah Bureau of Economic and Business Research.
2011 Washington County New Dwelling Units by Community
Source: Utah Bureau of Business and Economic Research.
2
109
73
5
1
22
0
364
0
251
19
Enterprise
Hurricane
Ivins
LaVerkin
Leeds
Santa Clara
Springdale
St. George
Virgin
Washington City
Other
2011 Washington County Change in Permitted New Dwelling Units by Community
Source: Utah Bureau of Business and Economic Research.
-2
37
24
-2
0
-8
-5
97
0
-158
-8
Enterprise
Hurricane
Ivins
LaVerkin
Leeds
Santa Clara
Springdale
St. George
Virgin
Washington City
Other
Washington County Dwelling Unit Permits
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010-3,000
-2,000
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000Home PermitsHomes SoldDifference
* Source: U of U; Utah Bureau of Economic and Business Research; Utah Association of Realtors.
$16.1
$44.3
$32.0
$75.2
$51.7
$84.8
$30.7$37.4
$68.9
$39.6
$109.6
$43.6
$107.5
$118.2
$176.9
$143.4
$119.2
$46.8
$35.7
$69.4
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Washington County New Nonresidential
Building Permit Valuation
Source: Utah Bureau of Business and Economic Research.
Millions of $
Washington County 2011Permit Values by Building Type
Single-family Homes Condominiums
Manufactured / Mobile Homes Residential Garages/Carports
Amusement & Recreation BldgsChurches & other Religious Bldgs
Industrial/Warehouse/Manufacturing BldgsService Station/Repair Garages
Hospital & Institutional BldgsOffice, Bank, Professional Bldgs
Public Utility Bldgs. (private) School & Educational Bldgs. (private)
Retail, Mercantile, Restaurant Agricultural Bldg. & Sheds Other Nonresidential BldgsStructures other than BldgsPublic Buildings & Projects
Additions and Alterations to Residential BldgsAdditions and Alterations to other Bldgs
$141,744$10,662
$441$1,683$1,342$2,534$2,255$850
$8,883$3,191
$316$26,058
$8,544$283$3,840
$8,849$724
$5,701$16,815
(Numbers in 000s)
Source: Utah Bureau of Business and Economic Research.
Source: Utah Bureau of Business and Economic Research.
557
864
474
276309
417
307
432
315
591
941
773
656
197140 119
63
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Iron County Dwelling Unit Permits
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Annual Change in Iron County New Dwelling Unit Permits
*January-October 2011.Source: University of Utah Bureau of Economic and Business Research.
2011 Iron New Dwelling Units by Community
Source: Utah Bureau of Business and Economic Research.
34
3
0
1
25
Cedar City
Enoch
Paragonah
Parowan
Other
2011 Iron County Change in Permitted New Dwelling Units by Community
Source: Utah Bureau of Business and Economic Research.
-12
-28
0
-1
-15
Cedar City
Enoch
Paragonah
Parowan
Other
$23.3
$19.8 $20.0
$25.3$24.0
$32.9
$28.5
$13.3
$13.2$14.5
$16.8
$27.3
$33.1
$17.4
$5.0 $4.4$3.2
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
Iron County New Nonresidential Building Permit Valuation
Source: Utah Bureau of Business and Economic Research.
Millions of $
Iron County 2011Permit Values by Building Type
Single-family Homes
Duplexes and Twin Homes
Manufactured / Mobile Homes
Residential Garages/Carports
Industrial/Warehouse/Manufacturing Bldgs
Public Utility Bldgs. (private)
Retail, Mercantile, Restaurant
Agricultural Bldg. & Sheds
Other Nonresidential Bldgs
Structures other than Bldgs
Public Buildings & Projects
Additions and Alterations to Residential Bldgs
Additions and Alterations to other Bldgs
$9,823
$624
$62
$405
$145
$20
$40
$247
$1,408
$509
$442
$1,171
$4,932
(Numbers in 000s)
Source: Utah Bureau of Business and Economic Research.
Kane County Dwelling Unit Permits
121131 125
135 128 132 135127
104122
56
300
332
151
60 62
3820
* Source: U of U; Utah Bureau of Economic and Business Research.
-100%
0%
100%
200%
300%
400%
500%
Annual Change in Kane County New Dwelling Unit Permits
*January-October 2011.Source: University of Utah Bureau of Economic and Business Research.
$1.4 $1.8
$5.1 $4.8
$1.9$0.8
$1.8$1.4 $1.7$1.1 $0.4
$3.2$4.1
$27.0
$2.8$2.6
$13.9
$1.3
1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009
Kane County New Nonresidential
Building Permit Valuation
Source: Utah Bureau of Business and Economic Research.
Millions of $
Kane County 2011Permit Values by Building Type
Single-family Homes
Duplexes and Twin Homes
Manufactured / Mobile Homes
Residential Garages/Carports
Industrial/Warehouse/Manufacturing Bldgs
Public Utility Bldgs. (private)
Retail, Mercantile, Restaurant
Agricultural Bldg. & Sheds
Other Nonresidential Bldgs
Structures other than Bldgs
Public Buildings & Projects
Additions and Alterations to Residential Bldgs
Additions and Alterations to other Bldgs
$9,823
$624
$62
$405
$145
$20
$40
$247
$1,408
$509
$442
$1,171
$4,932
(Numbers in 000s)
Source: Utah Bureau of Business and Economic Research.
Beaver County Dwelling Unit Permits
38
65
74
67
59 58
41
25
32
40
22
36
68
54
27
19 18
10
* Source: U of U; Utah Bureau of Economic and Business Research.
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Annual Change in Beaver County New Dwelling Unit Permits
*January-October 2011.Source: University of Utah Bureau of Economic and Business Research.
$3,645.8
$15,910.8
$14,034.9
$3,198.9$3,061.0
$8,375.1
$3,029.3$3,157.1$3,430.5
$1,286.0$769.9$2,046.1
$7,913.3
$4,960.3
$27,656.5
$3,488.5$1,805.1
$10,547.5
1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009
Beaver County New Nonresidential
Building Permit Valuation
Source: Utah Bureau of Business and Economic Research.
Thousands of $
Beaver County 2011Permit Values by Building Type
Single-family Homes
Residential Garages/Carports
Retail, Mercantile, Restaurant
Agricultural Bldg & Sheds
Other Nonresidential Bldgs
Structures other than Bldgs
Public Buildings & Projects
Additions and Alterations to Residential Bldgs
Additions and Alterations to other Bldgs.
$1,906
$314
$23
$32
$506
$17
$9,656
$288
$16
(Numbers in 000s)
Source: Utah Bureau of Business and Economic Research.
Garfield County Dwelling Unit Permits
33
53
6976
50
89
68
55 58 55 5461
86
139
59
49
32
22
* Source: U of U; Utah Bureau of Economic and Business Research.
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Annual Change in Garfield County New Dwelling Unit Permits
*January-October 2011.Source: University of Utah Bureau of Economic and Business Research.
$2,703.3
$1,557.9
$4,160.8
$1,689.6$1,903.8
$7,797.5
$4,291.0
$574.0$541.8
$2,543.9$1,902.2$2,196.0
$9,554.9
$2,631.6
$14,731.0
$2,325.7$3,130.0
$1,805.1
$6,025.0
1991 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011
Garfield County New Nonresidential
Building Permit Valuation
Source: Utah Bureau of Business and Economic Research.
Thousands of $
Garfield County 2011Permit Values by Building Type
Single-family Homes
Cabins
Manufactured / Mobile Homes
Residential Garages/Carports
Office, Bank, Professional Bldgs
Other Nonresidential Bldgs
Structures other than Bldgs
Public Buildings & Projects
Additions and Alterations to Residential Bldgs
Additions and Alterations to other Bldgs
$2,991
$809
$310
$541
$4,870
$79
$63
$472
$846
$299
(Numbers in 000s)
Source: Utah Bureau of Business and Economic Research.
The American Community Survey and You. . .
The American Community Survey provides vast variety of demographic/economic information is available on the local
level. It replaces the long-form from the Census.Funding for this vital program is in jeopardy.
Under 5 years
5 to 9 years
10 to 14 years
15 to 19 years
20 to 24 years
25 to 34 years
35 to 44 years
45 to 54 years
55 to 59 years
60 to 64 years
65 to 74 years
75 to 84 years
85 years and over
6%
5%
7%
6%
6%
9%
10%
15%
11%
7%
11%
6%
1%
10%
9%
8%
8%
9%
16%
12%
11%
5%
4%
5%
3%
1%
7%
7%
7%
7%
7%
13%
14%
15%
6%
5%
7%
4%
2%
2006-2010 Age Distribution
United States Utah
Kane County
Source: U.S. Census Bureau; American Community Survey.
Percent high school graduate or higher Percent bachelor's degree or higher
89.5%
23.7%
90.6%
29.4%
85.0%
27.9%
2006-2010 Educational Attainment
Kane County
Utah
United States
Source: U.S. Census Bureau; American Community Survey.
Local Employment Dynamics
• Geographic Flexibility• Worker Profile
– Age– Education– Gender– Race/Ethnicity– Wages– Industry
• Worker Flows• Mapping
Age 29 or younger
23%
Age 30 to 5456%
Age 55 or older21%
Age
Workers Working in LaVerkin
$1,250 or less
27%
$1,251 to $3,333
46%
More than
$3,33326%
Earnings per Month
continue.
provedata
economy improving;
should
(435) 688-3115Lecia Parks Langston
jobs.utah.govClick on “Labor Market Information”
economyutah.blogspot.com