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Question 1
● Is there any effect of cyling infrastructure in bicycling safety? – Vehicular cyling says no
– Macro-evidence from countries is quite good (Netherlands, Denmark...)
– Meso-evidence from cities is not so good (Example: Pasanen report)
– Micro-evidence from particular infrastructure ¿?¿
Question 2
If infrastructure creates safety
● Is it an additive linear effect?
or
● Is it a non-linear “quantum” effect
Question 3 (safety in numbers)
● Are the streets safer because there are many cyclists?
or
● There are many cyclists because the streets are safer?
Seville as case study
Daily trips
Length of bikeways
Methodology● Multi-linear regression analysis:
RISK = ao + a1X1 + a2X2 + ...
● Variables– RISK: Total number of accidents involving bicyclists
and motor vehicles each year
– KM: Total length of bikeways in km
– TRIPS: Million of bicycle trips per year
– JUMP:● = 0 before 2007● = 1 after 2006
Data
(*) Estimated assuming the number of trips is constant
Numerical results 2006-2013
Graphical results 2006-2013
Numerical results 2000-2013
Graphical results 2000-2013
Some considerations
● The variable JUMP is the best explanatory variable.● The variable TRIPS is the worse one.● The best model is RISK-KM+JUMP, with JUMP
significant to a 90%.
● We interpret these results as suggesting that “networking” the bikeways is important by itself, and that there is not a big causality between TRIPS and RISK
Networking
Safety in numbers?
Jacobsen (2003)!!!
; a0
CONCLUSIONS● There is a clear correlation between infrastructure and
cycling safety.● Networking seems to play an important discontinuous role
in this correlation.● Explains why macro- and micr-analysis gives different
results?● Jacobsen's safety in numbers theory is quantitatively
confirmed. ● How causality goes: From infrastructure to safety and from
safety to number of cyclists or vice-versa?