Climate Change & Health

Health Effects of Climate Change in the UK & Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA)

Bernd Eggen, Principal Climate Change ScientistAir Pollution and Climate Change GroupHPA Chilton

Contents

Climate change in the UK and further afield

Health Effects of Climate Change (HECC 2012)

UK Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA)

Further reading

Practical (?) Take on the HECC Report

Climate Change - Evidence

Atmospheric concentration of CO2 is increasing (pre-industrial approx 280ppm, currently near 400ppm); other greenhouse gases (methane, nitrous oxide etc) have also increased. Observed changes to the Earth’s climate system include:

ocean acidification

increase in global surface temperatures

sea level rise

shrinking ice sheets & decline in Arctic sea ice cover

more extreme events (heatwaves, flooding etc)

Greenhouse Gases at Record Levels

According to latest GHG Bulletin of WMO (20 Nov 2012)

New Minimum Arctic Sea Ice Extent 2012

approx 0.7ºC rise already

Climate & Extremes

Climate is defined as a long-term (typically 30-year) average of weather; however, in recent years new techniques have become available which allow attribution of individual extreme events (heatwaves, flooding, drought etc) to climate change. One of the first such demonstrations was for the 2003 European heatwave (Stott, 2004).

Climate change around the globe 2012: world’s 10th warmest year, 3rd warmest year

with La Niña on record

(La Niñaeventscool trop.Pacific;El Niñoeventswarm it;both haveglobalimpacts)

Climate change around the globe

2010 was one of the warmest individual years on record, tying with 2005 & 1998. Not surprisingly, BerkeleyEarth Surface Tem-perature study (BEST)confirms findings ofUKMO, NOAA & NASA

Climate change in the UK

2011 is second warmest year on record for the UK (after 2006).

2012 starts with drought in large parts of south, central and eastern England, while UK rainfall was about average (climate variability). In contrast, summer 2012 was one of the wettest on record.

Drier than usual soils cancontribute to heatwaves insummer, as little / no evapo-rative cooling.

Health Effects of Climate Change

History: First report published in 2001, based on UKCIP 1998 projections, update of 2008 was based on UKCIP 2002 projections. These projections were essentially based on a single climate model run (for each emission scenario).

The 2012 update is based on UKCP09, which are probabilistic in nature (derived from multiple climate model runs with slightly different parameterisations). Also new insights into climate variability (e.g. cold winters, Arctic ozone hole).

URL http://www.hpa.org.uk/hecc2012

[22 authors; approx ½ from HPA; some 240 pages]

Health Effects of Climate Change - TOC

1 Climate change in the UK: current evidence and projections

2 Temperature effects of climate change on health

3 Health effects from changes in air pollution

4 Changes in aeroallergens associated with pollen grains and fungal spores, and potential impacts on human health

5 Health effects of climate change in the indoor environment

6 Changes in UV radiation and the effects on health

7 Health Impacts of Flooding, and Climate Change Adaptation

8 Impact of climate change on vector-borne disease in the UK

9 Water and food-borne diseases

10 The health benefits of policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions

Temperature effects of CC on health

Heat-related mortality is predicted to increase steeply in the UK in the 21st century. We predict approximately

• 68% in the 2020s

• 262% in the 2050s

• 554% in the 2080s

The South East, London, East and West Midlands, the East of England and the South West appear to be most vulnerable to current and future effects of hot weather.

The elderly, particularly those over 85 years of age, are much more vulnerable to extreme heat and cold compared to younger age groups. Future risk will therefore be amplified by an aging population in the UK.

(increases compared with the 2000s baseline)

Mixed Messages – How to Communicate ?

Green: longest cold spell

Blue: average winter temperature

Health effects from changes in air pollution (e.g. ground level ozone)

The extent of adverse health impact (deaths brought forward and hospitalization) depends markedly on the assumption of a threshold concentration for O3 below which there is no impact.

Under the assumption of no threshold for O3 effect, total UK deaths brought forward increases 4% on the 2003 baseline mortality of 12,000 for the sensitivity experiment with 5°C temperature increase. The largest mortality increases are in London, South East and East England and the smallest in Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales.

With a threshold for O3 impacts mortality figures are lower.

Changes in UVR & effects on health

Climate change may affect ambient levels of ultraviolet radiation (UVR) in the UK. However, the critical factors affecting human exposure are lifestyle and behaviour. If outdoor workers are exposed to higher levels of UVR throughout their working lives, this is likely to increase the risk of non-melanoma skin cancers.

Data from HPA’s solar monitoring sites suggest that a small upward trend in total solar UVR reaching the Earth in the UK is slowing. However, occasional events, such as stratospheric ozone holes over the Arctic region, may contribute to increased incidents of erythema.

Climate Change Risk Assessment

CCRA published Jan 2012 (by Defra)

CCRA reviewed evidence for 700+ potential impacts

detailed analysis undertaken for 100+ of these impacts

across 11 key sectors (including health)

assessed for:

likelihood

scale of potential consequences

urgency for action

CCRA

Sectors:

1)Agriculture2)Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services3)Built Environment4)Business, Industry and Services5)Energy6)Floods and Coastal Erosion7)Forestry8)Health9)Marine and Fisheries10)Transport11)Water

CCRA – Health Chapter

Study co-lead by Sotiris Vardoulakis (HPA)

Focus on:

Heat

Cold

UV

Ozone

Flooding and Storms

(in bold with high confidence, others medium confidence, except for UV)

Conclusions

projections of temperature effects on vulnerable people have high confidence

projections on health effects of ground level ozone, pollen and other air pollutants have medium confidence

extreme weather events & their effects onto physical resources and mental well being of people need significant further research

while winters are gradually getting milder, there are still significant number of cold snaps

analysis of existing and future climate and health data sets is a priority

Further reading I

Books:

The Health Practitioner's Guideto Climate Change:Diagnosis and Cure (2009)

Changing Planet, Changing Health:How the Climate Crisis Threatens Our Healthand What We Can Do about It (2011)

Further reading II

Reports:

HPA’s “Health Effects of Climate Change in the UK 2012”via URL http://www.hpa.org.uk/hecc2012

DH’s original report (2001) & update (2008)“Health effects of climate change in the UK”via URL http://www.dh.gov.uk/

CCRA report (2012), Health section (summary, full report)URL http://randd.defra.gov.uk/Document.aspx?Document=CCRASummaryHealth.pdf URL http://randd.defra.gov.uk/Document.aspx?Document=CCRAfortheHealthSector.pdf

Further reading III

International Reports:

IPCC’s SREX report (2012) “Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation” URL http://ipcc-wg2.gov/SREX/

EEA (2012) “Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2012” URL http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/climate-impacts-and-vulnerability-2012

WHO & WMO (2012) “Atlas of Health and Climate” URL http://www.wmo.int/ebooks/WHO/Atlas_EN_web.pdf

Thank you for your attention

Any questions ?

bernd.eggen@hpa.org.uk

AMO – warm phase leading to wetter summers in Northern Europe

An Official American Thoracic Society Workshop Report: Climate Change and Human Health (15 Mar 2012)

UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP)

To project likely changes in future climates, complex computer models (GCMs) are run on powerful super-computers. Climate models are not perfect and some meteorological processes need to be “parameterised” – different parameterisations lead to different projections.

In previous climate projections for the UK, only single projections for a given emission scenario were available, making quantification of uncertainties difficult.

In the current projections (UKCP09), multiple versions of climate models (with slightly different parameterisations) have been evaluated to give more confidence in the likely range of outcomes.

UKCP09

previous situation (UKCIP02) current situation (UKCP09)

2080s SE England summer rainfall

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2080s SE England summer rainfall

UKCP09 User Interface & Outputs

probabilityof changeat a location

maps ofchange ata certainprobability

joint probabilityof change in two variables

cumulativeprobabilityof changeat a location

time seriesof change at differentprobabilities

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