THE BRICNATIONS

Future Of The World….

CONTENTCONTENT The BRIC’s Dreaming with BRIC’s: Path to 2050. Painting BRIC by numbers. INDIA: A rising growth potential. RUSSIA: A smooth political transition. CHINA: Unleashing the “Caged Tiger”. The ‘B’ in BRIC’s: Unlocking Brazil’s growth potential. Shared Challenges & opportunities. BRIC & International Politics. Influence The BRIC summit Criticism Conclusion 2

THE BRICTHE BRIC A grouping acronym referring to the countries of

Brazil, Russia, India, and China. Term was first prominently used in a Goldman

Sachs report from 2003. These countries aren’t a political alliance - but they

have the potential to form a powerful economic bloc

These four countries are among the biggest and fastest growing emerging markets

Already BRIC accounts for:o 40 per cent of the world's population,o 25.9 per cent of its total geographic area, o 40 per cent of global GDP

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DREAMING WITH BRICS: DREAMING WITH BRICS: THE PATH TO 2050THE PATH TO 2050 BRICs’ currencies could appreciate by 300%, providing a big

tailwind for investors in BRIC assets. By 2050, BRIC countries

expected to account for over 40% of the world’s population, and 60% of global GDP.

Taken together, the BRICs could be larger than the United States and the developed economies of Europe within 40 years.

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PAINTING BRIC BY PAINTING BRIC BY NUMBERSNUMBERS

Categories Brazil Russia India China

Area 5th 1st 7th 3rd

Population 5th 9th 2nd 1st

Labour force 5th 6th 2nd 1st

GDP(PPP) 9th 7th 4th 2nd

Foreign exchange reserves 7th 3rd 5th 1st

Active troops 14th 5th 3rd 1st

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INDIA:INDIA:A WISE ELEPHANTA WISE ELEPHANT

Globalization Forces of globalization set the stage for rapid rise of

Indian economy Confluence of internal changes and external forces of

globalization allowed India to leverage the power of English-speaking technical talent to produce powerful software for the global market.

Key Advantages 1.15 billion people

2nd largest labor force: 516.3m people

Approximately 2.5 million college graduates per year

Those with graduate degrees and above have risen from 20.5 million in 1991 to 48.7 million in 2004 6

INDIA:INDIA:A WISE ELEPHANTA WISE ELEPHANT

Trends Number of people in absolute poverty has declined

sharply Exports have boomed Foreign exchange reserves are ample for the first time

in history Newfound economic dynamism has shifted the balance

of leaders’ priorities from geopolitical goals to mutual economic interests.

Challenges for the Future Improving governance Improving basic educational achievement Improving infrastructure and electrical capacity in

cities Expanding technology industry

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RUSSIA: RUSSIA: A SMOOTH POLITICAL TRANSITION A SMOOTH POLITICAL TRANSITION

An “easy case” for globalization Undue emphasis on economics over politics Disregard of cultural values Russia can still benefit from a globalized world without

undertaking painful reform.

Challenges for the Future Labor shortages and poorly developed infrastructure WTO membership and long-term growth of the

manufacturing sector Reconciling ambitions as a major power with reality of

current situation

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THE ‘B’ IN BRIC:THE ‘B’ IN BRIC:UNLOCKING BRAZIL’S GROWTH PUNLOCKING BRAZIL’S GROWTH POTENTIALOTENTIAL

The uneasy emergence of an economic leader in Latin America

One of the fastest growing economies in the last century

But over-reliance on agricultural commodity exports resulted in a development marked by boom and bust

Focus on equitable development has resulted in significant poverty reduction

Brazilian economy becoming less dependent on exports

A global leader in renewable fuels.

Challenges for the Future Overburdened and ineffective judicial system

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CHINA: CHINA: UNLEASHING THE ‘CAGED TIGER’UNLEASHING THE ‘CAGED TIGER’

How did China do it? China’s successes are associated with liberalization

and globalization. China focused not only on opening economy, but also

on institutionalizing globalization Assimilation of best practices from across the globe

A Painful Transition State enterprise employment declined from 110

million in 1995 to 66 million in 2005

Urban-rural income gap is getting wider

Environmental cost of industrialization.

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CHINA: CHINA: UNLEASHING THE ‘CAGED TIGER’UNLEASHING THE ‘CAGED TIGER’

Key Advantages Broad expansion of educational achievement Rapid economic growth Resilience to global economic downturn

Challenges for the Future

Recognition as a global power requires adherence to

international norms Continued reform of state-run enterprises. Demographic shifts threaten sustained growth. Navigating a complex relationship with US and world. 11

SHARED CHALLENGES & SHARED CHALLENGES & OPPORTUNITIESOPPORTUNITIES

Challenges The face of poverty in 20th century was rural children.

The face of poverty in the 21st century will be the urban elderly.

Making the global system more accommodating to diverse cultures and values

Opportunities “Inclusive growth” critical for sustained globalization

(politically) in developing countries, because potential lies in bringing up all

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BRIC BRIC AND INTERNATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL POLITICSPOLITICS Influence on “New world order”.

U.S troops has been deployed in Afghanistan for more than 8 years without any substantive outcome. Afghanistan is close to China, India and Russia.

The controversial question of Iran. Russia, China and India could secure more proximity to the region.

BRIC cooperation is not solely an anti-U.S., or anti-western phenomenon, but is based on deeper common interests.

Improve Bargaining Position with Western Countries. Stabilize International Environment and Prevent

Encirclement

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INFLUENCEINFLUENCE Account for 15% of the global economy and 42% of

global currency reserves. Between 2000 and 2005, the BRICs contributed

roughly 28% of global growth in US dollar terms and 55% in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms.

Their share of global trade continues to climb at a rapid rate. At close to 15% currently, it is now double its level in 2001.

The BRIC’s share of oil demand is moving steadily higher, with an estimated 18% share in the current year

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BRIC SUMMIT… BRIC SUMMIT… AFTERMATHAFTERMATH The BRIC countries met for their first official summit

on 16 June 2009, in Yekaterinburg, Russia. Discussed the current global financial crisis, global

development, and further strengthening of the BRIC group.

Attacked the role of dollar as the primary international currency & suggested new global reserve currency that is 'diversified, stable and predictable'.

Issued a joint statement on global food security, calling for "action by all governments and the relevant international agencies“

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CRITICISMCRITICISM Understatement of GDP growth in China which

predicts growth falling far below normal development. The BRIC’s dream isn’t green. Nothing more than a neat acronym for the four largest

emerging market economies. BRICs doesn’t have a concrete and constructive

agenda for change or vision for a future world order. It is not clear what BRIC would do even if they were

given the opportunity to remake the international order.

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CONCLUSIONCONCLUSION The Importance of the U.S. The BRICs have come together in a political grouping

in a way that has far exceeded most expectations. Although BRIC cooperation has been significant, intra-

BRIC competition and rivalry are important limits on how much further BRIC cooperation can go.

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GROUP IS OPEN GROUP IS OPEN FOR FOR QUESTIONS……….QUESTIONS……….

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