- 1. BusinessInformationServices, LLCProviding schooldistrict
administratorsdetailed planninginformation to makedecision-making
easier.1 LOGO
2. 2 3. During the last 30 years, our world has becomesmaller
with readily available information.A few clicks on the Internet can
pull downreams of data. 3 4. What used to take weeks to gather
essentialinformation, today we can collect much faster. 4 5. What
kind of information isavailable today? Whether families renttheir
home and howlong theyve lived there. Whether families haveInternet
access andhow often they use it. Family incomelevels,
parentoccupations. andeducation levels What students eat athome. 5
6. Density of Households with Heavy Internet Usage (per square
mile)54 1791796354 9494 50 505450 50540 0.5 12 3 Miles630 - 27 95 -
177 277 - 383 498 - 620767 - 1,008 HighwaysSchool District28 -
94178 - 276384 - 497 621 - 766Streets6 7. Five key questions Where
is ourenrollment headed? Site EnrollmentSelection Can our
buildingshold future51enrollment? Demographic Do we need to
alterStudy attendanceGrowth Capacityboundaries? Where
could42population growth Boundariesoccur? Where would we3 need to
put a newbuilding?LOGO 8. Every District Administrator hasQuestions
that Need AnswersAre private schools gaining inHow many students
are living enrollment at my districtswith non-family members?
expense?How do I avoid over-hiring teachers? How efficient is our
bus routing?8 9. Which of the Hello How are you?key questionsare
you mostconcernedabout?9 LOGO 10. How We Answer the Questions:
Enrollment Trends1. Gather 10-25 years of data2. Compile vendor
data projections, Statistical 1 build maps, 3Models discern
trends3. Statistical 10-year models4. Overlay models, projections
data and maps Analysisto make Gather projectionsData 210LOGO 11.
Why Our Enrollment Projections areRightEND:Where enrollment is
headed1 23 More More More Data Detail ExpertiseSTART:Where is
enrollment headed?11 LOGO 12. Evaluation of Enrollment Projections
Accuracy Date ofOverall District Overall District Overall District
Actual 2011- Variance% Variance Years SinceStudy/ WhenLow MedHigh
VarianceDistrict12 District from Closest from Closest
ProjectionPredictionProjection for Projection for Projection for
per Year Enrollment ProjectionProjectionMadewas made
2011-122011-122011-12 2004Independence, MO 10,764 0 12,47712,343
-134 -1.1% 7-0.2% 2005Blue Springs, MO13,941 Our15,496 17,960
-1,555 -8.7% 6-1.4% 2005Nixa, MO6,804 6,8046,804 5,624 -1,180-17.3%
6-2.9% 2005Pleasant Hill, MO 2,670 2,6702,670 2,149 -521-19.5%
6-3.3% 2005Wright City, MO 1,632 1,7671,980 1,481 -151 -7.6%
6-1.3%Track 2006Bixby, OK 5,142 5,1425,142 5,071-71 -1.4% 5-0.3%
2006Miller R-II, MO 478 507570 51691.6% 5 0.3% 2006Mountain Grove,
MO1,311 1,3811,544 1,420 392.5% 5 0.5% 2006New Haven, MO 448 511559
492-19 -3.4% 5-0.7% 2006 2006 2006 2006 Ozark, MO Wagoner, OK
Warren Co R-III, MO Willard, MO 5,860 2,349 3,266 4,104 6,056 2,551
3,384 4,5336,1022,6003,4504,7955,4352,4452,9614,208-42596-305 104
-7.0%3.7% -8.8%2.2% 5 5 5 5-1.4% 0.7%-1.8% 0.4% Record 2007Dunklin
R-V, MO 1,178 1,2761,371 1,388 171.2% 4 0.3% 2007Grain Valley,
MO3,703 4,0984,334 3,70520.0% 4 0.0% 2007Independence, MO
10,62211,036 12,02512,3433182.6% 4 0.7% 2007Meramec Valley Schools,
MO2,826 3,3143,806 3,184 -130 -3.4% 4-0.9% 2007Nixa, MO5,588
6,3607,696 5,624 360.5% 4 0.1% 2007Ray-Pec, MO 6,776 7,0757,632
5,908 -868-11.4% 4-2.8% 2007Republic, MO4,719 4,9615,148 4,538 -181
-3.5% 4-0.9% 2007School of Osage, MO 1,949 1,9802,009 1,874-75
-3.7% 4-0.9% 2007Wentzville, MO 13,53413,534 13,53413,103 -431
-3.2% 4-0.8% 2008Auburn USD 437, KS5,726 5,8465,989 5,905-84 -1.4%
3-0.5% 2008Blue Springs, MO 14,575 0 15,35113,941 -634 -4.1% 3-1.4%
2008Ozark , MO5,608 5,9506,187 5,435 -173 -2.8% 3-0.9% 2009Blue
Springs, MO 15,415 17,07513,941 -1,474 -8.6% 2-4.3% 2009Jefferson
City, MO8,569 8,6108,651 8,603 -7 -0.1% 2 0.0% 2009Lamar County,
MS9,2399,831 9,201-38 -0.4% 2-0.2% 2009Union, OK13,981
16,72014,9901,0096.0% 2 3.0% 2010Blue Springs, MO 13,808
14,33813,9411330.9% 1 0.9% 2010Grain Valley, MO3,545 3,7393,967
3,705-34 -0.9% 1-0.9% 2010Joplin8,024 8,2898,448 7,290 -734 -8.7%
1-8.7% 2010Lansing, KS 2,567 2,6072,696 2,645 381.4% 1 1.4%
2010Meramec Valley Schools, MO2,982 3,1973,411 3,184 130.4% 1 0.4%
2010Nixa, MO5,710 5,7295,749 5,624-86 -1.5% 1-1.5% 2010Platte
County R-III, MO 3,499 3,5663,721 3,666-55 -1.5% 1-1.5% 2011Blue
Springs, MO 14,04114,200 14,32013,941 -100 -0.7% 1-0.7% 2011Broken
Arrow, OK 16,11816,434 16,75216,9852331.4% 1 1.4% 2011Farmington,
MO3,791 3,8213,851 3,806-15 -0.4% 1-0.4% 2011Mexico, MO2,210
2,2402,265 2,308 431.9% 1 1.9%12 2011Washington, MO4,130 4,1404,148
4,047-83 -2.0% 1-2.0% 13. Projection SuccessesMiller R-II (MO)Lamar
(MS)InIn2006, predicted 2009, predictedenrollment to beenrollment
at507 in 2011-12. 9,239 for 2011-They had 516. 12. They
had9,201.13LOGO 14. How Accurate have We Been? Since early 2009
when we started working with the OSU researchers 1.4% variance
overall1.2% per yearIn 43 projects where we madeenrollment
projections for the 2011-12 year, our average variance was3.9%, on
studies from 2004 to 2010,including Joplins projections.14 LOGO 15.
Statistical Modeling of ProjectionsModel comparisons 3,400
3,200Cubic_7Linear_25 3,000Quadratic_25Axis TitleLinear_7
2,800Quadratic_14Cubic_25Cubic_14 2,600Quadratic_7Linear_14 2,400
15 16. Statistical Modeling of ProjectionsK-12 Enrollment
Projections to 20213,500High (Linear_25)3,300 Medium (Linear_7)Low
(Trend_40)3,1503,079 Projected
Enrollment3,1003,0092,9392,9882,8692,9332,9002,8782,799 2,8232,729
2,7672,8082,700 2,6582,7122,7682,5882,6572,728 2,6022,6882,518
2,6482,546 2,6082,5002,4812,5682,408 2,5282,408 2,488
2,4482,4082,300 16 17. Statistical Modeling of Projections Actual
Kindergarten Enrollment versus Predicted Kindergarten Enrollment,
based on births in ZIP Code 73045 (1985-2016)200180172 171 160160
157160 153154 151 150148 148145 147 146 148 148144 143 146144 145
145143142 143 145 152140148 148149148 149 146 146 146 144 150 148
147 146 146 144 145141 141 143 142144 142 144 141 137 140 136132
133Kindergarten Enrollment1201001078060Actual K
Enrollment40Predicted Enrollment20 01985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 201617
18. Our business: Demographic Analysis We subscribe tothe four
mostaccurate vendordata services.18 19. Warren Coun ty R-III School
District161I nc oming S tu d e nts Sin c e 2 00 9 -2 01 0by Gr a d
ePK 6 # *S ch oo l sWhat can weK7Highways18S tr e e t s29S ch oo l
D i s tr i c t31045 11 12 do tohelp01 246 Miles19 70you? # * # * 47
# * # *New Students941910019 20. Best Visuals Possible to Tell the
Story20 21. How We Answer the Questions: Capacity Analysis1. Square
footage by building2. National standards for areas for
students1Enrollment3Projections 3. Projection of Enrollment4.
Shortfall or over-age Buildingcapacity of buildingsNeedsStudent
Area Needs Building Size221LOGO 22. CapacityAnalysisGross2011-12
Additional Enrollment2021-22Square Square FootageSquare Square
Capacity School Grades Projected FootageAdvantage/Footage
perFootagebased on EnrollmentperSq Ft Disadvantage Building Added
StudentMark Twain Kindergarten CenterK 475 60,000 -
12654514.83%Eugene Field Elementary1st-4th519 57,186 12,100110520
0.17%Lake Road Elementary 1st-4th304 34,542 - 114314 3.30%Oak Grove
Elementary 1st-4th539 59,384 11,500110540 0.16%ONeal
Elementary1st-4th518 64,424 - 12458613.06%Poplar Bluff 5th and 6th
Grade Center5th-6th946123,500 26,500131950 0.42%Poplar Bluff Jr.
High7th-8th909122,952 24,000135911 0.19%Poplar Bluff High
School9th-12th 1,678 269,111 75,000160
1,6820.24%85,888791,099149,100 6,04822 23. How We Answer the
Questions: Boundary Changes1. Enrollment trends2. Student roster
analysis3. Criteria for changing the lines Criteria 134. Student
counts under the scenarios Scenarios RosterEnrollmentAnalysis
Trends223 LOGO 24. How We Answer the Questions: Population Growth
1. Historical Data 2. Vendor data projectingup to 10 years offuture
population GIS1 3 3. GIS analysis by Census Analysis block groups
or blocks 4. Complete PictureOverallPictureVendor DataHistorical
ProjectionsData2 24LOGO 25. How We Answer the Questions:
SiteSelection1. Criteria for new property2. Available data on
parcels, i.e., utilities,1 33Possibilitiesacreage, traffic counts,
service area, zoning, market valueRecommendation3. Three possible
sites4. RecommendationParcel Data Criteria 2 25LOGO 26. 26 27. How
Were Different12 3 Thorough data Independent
Comprehensivecollection analysisFlat-Flexiblerate,
customizedCustom-Designed pricingLOGO 28. Peer Evaluations on
Dozens of Factors 2000 Census2010 CensusPercentage of Percentage
of% Rate ofSchool-Age School-Age TotalTotal ExpendituresPer
StudentPer Student Change Per School District Children Living
Children Living Expenditures Expenditures Change 2006- Expenses
Expenses Studentin the Districtin the District 2006-072010-1107 to
2010-11ExpensesWho Attend Who Attend District Schools District
SchoolsWill County District 92 62.4%57.2% $18,826,439$9,463
$20,361,491 $11,1818.2%18.2%Summit Hill District 16165.7%65.3%
$52,558,818 $14,660 $35,432,406$9,859-32.6% -32.7%Frankfort
District 157C 61.2%62.3% $24,037,625 $10,529 $31,318,618 $12,830
30.3%21.9%Mokena District # 159 62.6%56.4% $17,868,052$7,885
$18,927,731$9,6825.9%22.8%New Lenox District #122 62.1%67.5%
$54,876,245$9,963 $55,958,237 $10,0412.0% 0.8%Troy School District
#30C 51.5%55.7% $44,345,967 $11,832 $50,188,042 $11,205
13.2%-5.3%Homer CCSD 33C56.5%61.1% $31,181,640$9,008 $51,992,062
$14,458 66.7%60.5%Lemont Bromberek District # 113A53.2%51.4%
$24,195,061$9,574 $23,438,914$9,217 -3.1%-3.7%LaGrange District #
105 55.5%35.5% $16,860,385 $15,300 $38,552,983
$28,452128.7%86.0%Palos District # 11858.2%55.3% $25,576,902
$13,789 $25,163,311 $13,543 -1.6%-1.8%Orland Park District #
13553.7%54.3% $69,635,653 $12,433 $75,073,128
$14,0857.8%13.3%Elmhurst District # 205 78.8%83.2%
$107,406,528$14,104 $106,303,567$12,978 -1.0%-8.0%Kirby District #
14060.6%56.3% $34,581,801$8,266 $41,781,911 $10,892
20.8%31.8%Median 60.6% 56.4%$31,181,640$10,529$38,552,983
$11,2057.8%13.3%Average60.2% 58.6%$40,150,086$11,293$44,191,723
$12,956 18.9%15.7%Homer CCSD 33C Variance from Median-6.7%8.3%
0.0%-14.4% 34.9%29.0% 754.7% 355.2%Homer CCSD 33C Variance from
Average -6.0%4.2%-22.3% -20.2% 17.7%11.6% 253.8% 286.4%Source:
Illinois State Board of EducationESRI data, US Census
BureauNational Center for Education Statistics28 29. Percent
Unemployment10.011.0 12.0 13.014.0 0.01.02.03.04.05.06.07.08.09.0
Jan-90 Jun-90 Nov-90 Apr-91 Sep-91 Feb-92Jul-92 Dec-92 May-93
Oct-9329 Mar-94 Aug-94 Jan-95 Jun-95 Nov-95 Apr-96 Sep-96
Feb-97Jul-97 Dec-97 May-98 Oct-98 Mar-99 Aug-99 Jan-00 Jun-00
Nov-00 Apr-01 Sep-01 Feb-02Jul-02 Dec-02 May-03 Oct-03 Mar-04
Aug-04 Jan-05 Jun-05 Nov-05 Apr-06 Sep-06 Orland Park, and Tinley
Park (1990-2012)Lockport Feb-07 Oak Lawn Tinley ParkJul-07
Bolingbrook Orland Park Dec-07 May-08Far-Reaching Economic Data
Oct-08 Mar-09 Aug-09 Jan-10 Unemployment Rates for Bolingbrook,
Lockport*, Oak Lawn, Jun-10 Nov-10 Apr-11 Sep-11 * Lockport data
only available 2000-2012 Feb-12 30. 30 31. 31 32. My Professional
Background 1981-91 Journalist Gather info quickly 1991-2004Data
Analyst/Auditor/Manager Analyze data 2004-PresentSchool
DistrictDemographerDemographic Studies32LOGO 33.
Credentials/EducationBachelors Degree:University of
Missouri-ColumbiaJournalism/ AgricultureMasters DegreeUniversity of
Missouri-Kansas CityPublicAdministration/StatisticsMember American
Instituteof Certified PlannersMember Council of EducationFacilities
PlannersInternational33LOGO 34. Our Organization Preston
SmithBusiness Information Services, LLCCertified GIS AnalystData
ResearcherMarketing SpecialistData
AnalystFinCoGeoDemographicsMicrosoft
CertifiedDevelopmentSpecialistDatabase AnalystDatabase
AnalystDatabase Analyst34 35. We have completed projects in 9
states so far 35 36. Additional Items in Your StudyHave It Your
WayVoter TurnoutYou decide whatAnalysis of Parcels information you
need Business ListsCity/County Data 36LOGO 37. Additional Items in
Your StudyHave It Your WayHome School EnrollmentYou decide what
Private School Enrollmentinformation you need Survey
Builders/DevelopersSpecialized Research37 LOGO 38. Total PackageWe
provide themostcomprehensivedemographicstudy andanalysisavailable
on themarket todayanywhere in thecountry.38 39. B s ess or a o er
ces r c g e ort- -10-year projection based on 25-years of
enrollment data, by building and by grade10-year projection model
of Kindergarten enrollment based on 20 years of birth data*10-year
projection of enrollment based on growth model2000 Census and 2010
Census vs. Enrollment (Public School Market Share)Private school
enrollment in the areaCapacity analysis of buildings based on
enrollment projectionsGeocoding of multiple years of student
rostersBasic residential mapping / demographic trend analysis in
the areaPrepare 60-80 demographic maps showing population changes
in cohorts, ethnicgroups and other factors for the next five and 10
years.Peer comparison with 12 other districts based on 100-200
financial/demographic items2010 Census data tables covering key
demographic factorsBuilding-by-building demographic snapshotMail
survey to developers and builders in the area to determine
residential buildingintentions, tabulate results. Can also mail
separate survey to realtors.Analysis of parcel data, zoning
information, matching student rosters to parcels, andverification
of school district tax codes**Perform research on employment trends
in the area, by industry. Gather 20 years ofresidential building
permits for single and multi-family housing.Purchase household
demographic data containing 300 data fields, such as income
lev-els, Internet use, longevity at address, education levels of
guardians.Purchase of third-party population projection data and
reportsAttend Meetings/Presentations (if available from Health
Depart ment- - - -(if available from Assessors Office) 39 40.
COMING TOGETHER IS A BEGINNING; KEEPING TOGETHER IS PROCESS;
WORKING TOGETHER IS SUCCESS.40HENRY FORD 41. How We Can Work with
YouYoull alwaysYou can betYou will have You can ask us know
whatwell stay a long-termto help gatherwe promise towithin
yourteam-player.other kinds of deliver.budget withinformationour
flat billing.when the study is done 41LOGO 42. Business
InformationServices, LLCPreston SmithThank you for your time
OwnerLet us make your world smaller.42
