Carsten Beck - Future Forum 2013

Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning

New ways of learning – new ways of working

Italy

November 2013CIFS, Carsten Beck


CIFS

• Founded by Thorkil Kristensen i 1970

• Private non-profit organisation

• Member based:– 50 companies in Europe

• Interdisciplinary think tank (economic and political science, ethnology, sociology, philosophy)

• 15 academic employees • Danish, Norwegian and

Belgian Futures Club• IKEA, ASDA, Delhaize, Coop,

Siemens, Statoil, Pictet, Wal Mart, EU, Governments and regional authorities

Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for FremtidsforskningWhy do we need to look for

new ways of learning and working?

•Sense of urgency in Europe•Success is difficult•More changes happening•New technologies and attitudes challenges leaders and institutions


Why the future?We all face much tougher competition in the

futureGlobal companies 1991-2001 And in 2001-2011

25% best performing companies

8% in ”Top 25%”

17%

25%

50% in ”Bottom 25%”

Source: HBR: The law of averages jan-feb 2013 NB TSR=Total shareholder return



You can´t ask people about radical innovation regarding their worklife

”If I asked people what they wanted, I would have made

a faster horse”Henry Ford

http://nl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Afbeelding:Henry_Ford.jpg


Individualization

Globalization

Increasing Wealth

Commercialization

Digitalization

IT society

Network organization

Knowledge society

Acclerating Pace of change

24-hour society

Immaterialism

Global Warming

(Environmental Challenges)

Health & Wellness

MEGATRENDSDrivers for Change

Population development

(Aging)

Change conditions:Families

EmployeesBusinessSociety


Macroperspectives


Very heterogeneous picture of competitiveness in Europe

http://ec.europa.eu/regional_policy/sources/docgener/studies/pdf/6th_report/rci_2013_report_final.pdf


Reshoring to EuropeExperiences from german companies:

1. Flexibility2. Quality3. Cost of coordinating global value

chains4. Infrastructure5. Lack of competence and talents

Workforce:

1. More automatization and hence more complex work tasks

2. More agile 3. More focus on learning 4. Solving the knowledge transfer

problem


Source: FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF KANSAS CITY



Individual perspectives


The empowered generation


Digitalisation


McKinsey:Turning Buzz into Gold, May 2012

Social Media has grown faster than any other Media technology


Constant Everyday Use – A Global Trend

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

In bed Earlymorning

Commuting Latemorning

Duringlunch

Earlyafternoon

Lateafternoon

Earlyevening

Duringdinner

Lateevening

In bed

Percentage of smartphone non-voice usage: Global

Source: Ericsson ConsumerLab Analytical Platform 2012 Base: Android/iPhone smartphone users in 57 countries


Real time• Impatience

• Response: here and now

• No bad excuses

• The Boss= The person or network that makes the fastest decisions

"Twitter has done a great job of real-time search. I think we’ve done a relatively poor job of... things that work on a per-second basis. I’ve been telling our search teams for some time, you need results for every second. They laugh at me. I don’t think they understand this. I think we will do a better job of some of these things now".

Source: Larry Page (Google founder) in Wired Magazine



Education and business perspectives


Individualized learning


Pitfalls

• Virtual academies with shady reputations

• Can digital learning environments grade and appreciate imagination and creativity?

• Student data: Privacy issues

• Role of teachers – teacher/student relations might be more superficial?

Based on Diane Ravitch. New York University





MIT Future of Learning program study

1. Self-learning2. Horizontal

structures 3. From presumed

authority to collective credibility

4. De-centered pedagogy

5. Networked learning

6. Open source education7. Learning as

connectivity and interactivity

8. Lifelong learning9. Learning institutions

are mobilizing networks

10.Flexible scalability and simulation


The educational institutions• Universities focusing more on

developing talent that have skills that are actually needed in the market– Focus on the needs of the private

sector– STEM (Science, Technology,

Engineering, Math)– More in depth integration of theory

and real life• Schools working together with

companies on internal training programs



The next step in HR


Kilde: BCG


The Big FiveFive trends that will transform your future workforce.

1. Generation Y and Z

– Migration from East Europe (and West)

2. Social capital and networks

– Long term trend: more responsibility is delegated

3. Global mobility and value chains

4. Technological paradigm changes

– Social media and screens

5. Co-creation

– Companies in the future will ask all their employees to be customer focused and innvative


The big excuse

”We are to busy right now to care about the future!”

Solution: Ambidexterity

“Organizational ambidexterity refers to an organization’s ability to be efficient in its management of today’s business and also adaptable for coping with

tomorrow’s changing demand. Just as being ambidextrous means being able to use both the left and

right hand equally, organizational ambidexterity requires the organizations to use both exploration and

exploitation techniques to be successful.”

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Management

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ambidexterity

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exploration

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exploitation


Recommendations to companies• More focus on competence development

– Clear and future oriented talentmanagement-strategy

– More entry level jobs – ”Free 1”– ”Company universities”– Cooperation with other companies inside or

outside your sector• ”Teach-able fit” approach – hire employees with

competences that are not a perfect fit today but will be a perfect future fit. Requires capability to learn!

• Job security – but adjustable. Lower working hours and pay – if required

• Compensation and benefits should be OK• ”Talent on demand”: how can you get acces to

competences outside your company? And on a flexible basis?


Workshop


Constant Everyday Use – A Global Trend

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

In bed Earlymorning

Commuting Latemorning

Duringlunch

Earlyafternoon

Lateafternoon

Earlyevening

Duringdinner

Lateevening

In bed

Percentage of smartphone non-voice usage: Global

Source: Ericsson ConsumerLab Analytical Platform 2012 Base: Android/iPhone smartphone users in 57 countries


Generation Y and Z• Generation Y, “The

Millennials”: Born ca. 1980-1995

• Generation Z, “The iGeneration”: Born ca. 1995-present


The social media generation


The global generation


The creative generation


The Herostratic generation


The spoiled generation?


The anarchist generation


Generation Y: The power generation?


Interactivity


Integration with internet data


Distance learning



Flip homework / schoolwork


Individualized learning


Gamification


Recognize non-standard experience


The power of self-learning

www.tinyurl.dk/38509


“We left the boxes in the village. Closed. Taped shut. No instruction, no human being. I thought, the kids will play with the boxes! Within four minutes, one kid not only opened the box, but found the on/off switch. He'd never seen an on/off switch. He powered it up. Within five days, they were using 47 apps per child per day. Within two weeks, they were singing ABC songs [in English] in the village. And within five months, they had hacked Android. Some idiot in our organization or in the Media Lab had disabled the camera! And they figured out it had a camera, and they hacked Android.”

– Nicholas Negroponte, OLPC


Privacy

• The Good:– ”Individualized solutions”

• The Bad:– ”IKEA knows to much about

me”• The Evil:

– ”Theft of identities”

Getty Images


AnarconomyHow people interact with IKEA


Networks


MIT Future of Learning program study

1. Self-learning2. Horizontal

structures 3. From presumed

authority to collective credibility

4. De-centered pedagogy

5. Networked learning

6. Open source education7. Learning as

connectivity and interactivity

8. Lifelong learning9. Learning institutions

are mobilizing networks

10.Flexible scalability and simulation


The educational institutions• Universities focusing more on

developing talent that have skills that are actually needed in the market– Focus on the needs of the private

sector– STEM (Science, Technology,

Engineering, Math)– More in depth integration of theory

and real life• Schools working together with

companies on internal training programs


Pitfalls

• Virtual academies with shady reputations

• Can digital learnings environments grade and appreciate imagination and creativity?

• Student data: privacy issues

• Role of teachers – teacher/student relations might be more superficial?

Based on Diane Ravitch. New York University


Major challenge

• Digitalization of educational systems has huge potential. But what are the challenges?– Attitudes and values?– Technological infrastructure?– Internal conflicts in organisations?– Little interest in the future and future digital

solutions?– Economy?– Silos?


Major challenge

• New generations will have new ways of working. How will managers and organiszations cope with this?– Powerdistance– Collaboration– Values and beliefs– Individualization – Bring Your Own Device


Major challenge

• The balance between the physical and digital learning environment. CIFS believes in an in-line-educational system. How will this affect the organisations of schools and universities?