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Challenges to sustainable potato productionin a changing climate: A research
perspective
R. Quiroz, A. Posadas, C. Yarlequé, H. Heidinger, C. Barreda, R. Raymundo, C.Gavilán, M. Carbajal, H. Loayza, H. Tonnang, J. Kroschel, G. Forbes, and S. De
Haan.
Centro Internacional de la Papa
August 15th 2011Conference presented at the 95th Annual Meeting of the Potato Association of America. Wilmington NC
Symposium - Breeding for Sustainable Production in a Changing ClimateUnderstanding the Physiological Basis of Genetic and Environmental Interactions
Contents
• Potato in variable environments
• CC-Potato - Literature findings
• Summary of perceived research gaps
• Addressing research gaps at CIP
• Farmers adaptation strategies in theAndes and tradeoffs
Temperature
Water & Nutrients
Light & CO2
Where is potatoProduced?
Potato acreage
It is about climate change w/oforgetting climate variability
The concentration ofGHGs is rising
Long-term implicationsfor the climate and for
crop suitability
Areas where maximum temperature during the primary growing seasonis currently < 30°C but will flip to > 30°C by 2050
Areas where rainfall per day decreases by 10 % or more between 2000 and 2050.
DIRECT EFFECTS:elevated levels of Carbon dioxide on potato
crops
Leaf Processes Increased CO2
Photosynthetic rate
Stomatalconductance
Leaf Protein,Chlorophyll content
Starch / CHO content
•When exposed for a short period -substantial increment
•Down regulation when grown continuouslyin elevated CO2
•Decreases at elevated CO2
•Expected to increase WUE
•Contradictory responses, probablyassociated to cultivar differences
•Increases with long-term exposure toelevated CO2
Effect of elevated levels of Carbon dioxide onpotato crops
Process Increased CO2
Changes in plant growthand development
Effects on crop yield
Effects on tuber quality
•Stimulates both above-and below-groundbiomass (early growing season)
•Period of active plant growth endsprematurely
•Senescence begins earlier
•Limited growth rates towards the end ofgrowing season
•Tuber yield stimulated and magnitudevaries with cultivar and growing conditions
•Increase number of tubers
•Increased tuber DM & starch content
•Reduced tuber N and glycoalkaloidcontent
Effect of elevated Temperature on potato crops
•Elevated temperatures seems to reduce tuber initiation
•Temperature above the desired ones reduce the photosynthetic efficiency, thusreducing potato growth
•High temperature may also reduce the ability of the plant to translocatephotosynthates to the tuber
•Elevated temperature increases DM partitioning to stems but reduces root,stolon, tuber and total DM and total tuber number
•Offset the CO2 fertilization effect
INDIRECT EFFECT: potato pests and diseases
Baseline w/o crop protection 75 % ofpotato production today would belost to pests
Major factors likely toinfluence plant diseaseseverity and spread
•increased CO2,•heavy and unseasonal rains,•increased humidity, droughtsand hurricanes,•warmer winter temperatures
Changes in theclimate are expectedto produce
•alterations in the geographical distribution ofspecies,
•increase overwintering,
•changes in population growth rates,•increase the number of generations perseason,
•extension of the development season,
•changes in crop-pest synchrony,
•increase risk of invasion by migration pests,
•may cause the appearance of newthermophilicspecies,
•changes in the physiology ofpathogens/insects and host plants,
•changes in host plants resistance toinfection/infestation,
•critical temperature/infection threshold,•modification of pathogen aggressivenessand/or host susceptibility
Knowledge gaps and research priorities:
Experimental analyses and model simulation to quantify:- Effect of increasing CO2 on crops other than cereals, includingthose of importance to the rural poor (e.g. local potato cultivars)- Interaction between crop yields and other factors of production(pests, diseases, weeds, etc.) under climate change conditions
- Impact of climate extreme events on crop yieldsReduce and quantify uncertainties of future prediction:
- Generate reliable data to test GCMs through hindcasting- Improve the spatial resolution of climate predictions
Develop tools to evaluate adaptation strategies at differentspatial levels (cropping, farm, region)
- Link climate-pathogens-hosts interactions across scalesEvaluate actual applicability of adaptation strategies:
- Quality of seeds- Cost and benefits (economic, social, environmental)- Role of new technology (e.g. biotechnologies, fertilizers, etc.)- Tradeoffs analyses
CIP advances on potato modelingy S. Tuberosum - tuberosum - andigena y S. Ajanhuiri y S. juzepczukii
Light
Light
Interception
DMLUE (PAR—
Kg DM.ha¨¹.d ¨¹
Tubers
)Photosynthetic
Apparatus
T GC LAI
Light Reflectance
Roots Stems Leaves
Improving model inputs
GB R NIR
RS data for helping select tolerant potato cultivars
NDVI0-0.1
0.1-0.20.2-0.30.3-0.40.4-0.50.5-0.6
Fresh yield (t/ha)<16
>24
60 60
50 50
40 40
30 30
20 20
10 10
0 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1112 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112
Plot Plot
Normal irrigation
Deficit irrigation Terminal drought
MRI- Potato tuber scanning
MRI -potato root scanning
Coping with limited spatial-temporal coverage of climate data
From RS data to rainfall
(ppm)
HUANCANE
50
40
30
20
10
0
1-Jan-99 20-Jul-99 5-Feb-00 23-Aug-00 11-Mar-01 27-Sep-01 15-Apr-02 1-Nov-02
Días
Source: Yarlequé et al., 2007
Andean Farmers: Adaptation strategies and potential tradeoffs
20th Century Climate Change in Tropical Andes
Variable Assessment
Temperature Average warming of 0.09-0.15◦C decade−1; western
slopes>highlands>eastern slopes
Relative humidity (near Increased 0 - 2.5 % decade−1;surface levels)
Precipitation Little change in the latter half of20th Century. Some increments inEcuador, NW Argentina andBolivian lowlands
Source: Vuille et al., 2003
Projected Climate: Andes
Late Blight (LB)
� Warmer temperatures withsome humidity in highergrounds will increase thepresence of potato late blight.
� High incidence of LB in thefuture (2050) above 3000masl (highlighted in the map)where it is virtually absenttoday
Potato tuber moth (PTM)
� PTM is actually present ininterandean valleys and thecoastal areas of the Andes
� PTM is expected to climb aswell due to climate change
60
45
30
15
0
50
40
Potato species
Solanum juzepczukii (juz)Solanum tuberosum ssp. Andigena (and)Solanum tuberosum ssp. Tuberosum (tub)Solanum phureja (phu)A B CSolanum acaule (acl)
30
20
10
0
A
50
40
30
20
10
0
A B C
B C
50
40
30
20
10
0
A
50
40
30
20
10
0
A B C
B C
Cultivar and progenitors
(A) Lukijuz 100%
(B) Gendarmeand 100%
(C) SajamaHybrid
and: 25%tub: 50%
phu: 12.5%acl 12.5%
Period
1965-19751976-19851986-19951996-2005
As temperature and presence of pest increase in theAndes Potatoes are planted in higher grounds
1975:(4000-4150msnm)
2005:(4150-4300msnm)
S. De Haan & H. Juarez, CIP (2008)
Putting pieces together for a hypothetical example:Changes in potential potato (improved and native) in Peru: 2000-2050
Sampling-transect to assess carbon contents and stocks in Southern Peru.Source: Segnini et al., 2010
Carbon stocks in diverseAndean soils
Peatlands and otherland uses in theAndean highplateau
Potential loss of soil carbon stocks due to croppingpeatlands and grasslands in Peru & Bolivia
Peatlands to potato
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
2000
Bolivia
Scenarios
Peru
2050
Grasslands to potato
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
2000
Bolivia
Scenarios
Peru
2050
The challenge(Climate smart agriculture)
Potato agriculture that sustainably increases productivity, resilience(adaptation), reduces/removes greenhouse gases (mitigation), andenhances achievement of national food security and developmentgoals.