Data Initiatives to TrackPublic Spending and Outcomes

in African Agriculture

FARA-7th Africa Agriculture Science Week

14th June 2016, Kigali, Rwanda

Samuel BeninInternational Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)

DATA, INFORMATION AND KNOWLEDGE SYSTEMS Session

Organised by CTA, in partnership with FARA, IFPRI, GODAN

Why monitor agricultural R&D resources?

Public expenditure is a powerful instrument for achieving sustainable development objectives—via reducing economic inefficiencies and addressing inequality

Thus, CAADP 10% agriculture expenditure target is not surprising

Why 10%? How should it be allocated across different:

subsectors (crops, livestock, etc.), commodities (food vs export crops, etc.), economic uses (salaries, capital, etc.), functions (R&D, irrigation, etc.), space (regions, districts), target groups (gender, farm size), etc.?

Tough but very relevant questions, as different types of spending have different effect on different outcomes in different places:

Effects materialize via different pathways indirect effects

Effects materialize at different times sequencing

Effects conditioned by different factors substitution/complementarity

Need to know quantity and quality of spending to analyze linkages with development for better scarce resource allocation decisions

Why Track Public Agricultural Spending?

Why monitor agricultural R&D resources?

3 data initiatives led by IFPRI

SPEED (Statistics on Public Expenditures for Economic Development)

ReSAKSS (Regional Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System)

ASTI (Agricultural Science and Technology Indicators)

Other data initiatives

FAO (MAFAP, GEA), World Bank (AgPERs, BOOST)

Gaps and Implications

Outline of presentation

Coverage and indicators—2015 release• 1980-2012, 147 countries, 8 regions• 9 sectors▶Agriculture, defense, education, fuel &

energy, health, mining, social protect, transport & comm.

• Several indicators▶Amount in constant 2005 PPP$ & US$▶% of sector expenditure in total▶Agriculture, % of expenditure in agGDP▶% of total expenditure in total GDP

Data sources, coverage, and indicators

Main data sources (compiled on UN COFOG)

• IMF, World Bank, Eurostat, national sources• Source of each data point is documented

Online tools (google “IFPRI speed”)

Global comparative overview of sectoral expenditures for selected year & indicator

Sector trends for selected country

& indicator

Sectoral expenditures for selected country, year, & indicator

Global comparative overview for selected year & indicator

Selected country’s trend compared to regional and global

trends

Selected country’s expenditure compared to

regional and global averages for selected year

Download Data and Charts

New directions under consideration

• All sectors: disaggregation by economic use

▶ Compensation of employees, use of goods and services,

consumption of fixed capital, interest, subsidies, grants,

social benefit, other

• Agriculture sector: disaggregation by sub-function

▶ Research, extension, irrigation, marketing infrastructure,

farm support, etc.

• Other sectors: identify key sub-functions for poverty

and nutrition (other?), e.g.:

▶ Expenditure in rural areas for all sectors

▶ Expenditure on primary education and health care

▶ Expenditure on school feeding in education sector

evidence- and outcome-based planning and implementation of agricultural-sector

policies and strategies in Africa

Strategic Analysis and Monitoring of CAADP and Agricultural Performance in Africa

Knowledge Management, Capacity Strengthening, and Policy Communications

support review and

dialogue

Objectives, outputs, and partners

Data and tools (www.resakss.org)

Coverage and indicators—annual update

• 1980-recent year; 54 countries

▶ Regions: 5 geographic, 4 economic, 8 RECs, 4 CAADP groups, other

• Topic area (number of indicators)

▶ Enabling environment (9)

▶ CAADP implementation process (11)

▶ Agricultural spending (4)

▶ Agricultural productivity and growth (7)

▶ Agricultural trade (5)

▶ Poverty, hunger, nutrition (6)

• Data sources

▶ FAO, World Bank, SPEED, national

Analysis• Trends—compare

for selected countries or regions

• Bar graphs—compare all indicators for selected country and year

• Download charts and data

Data and tools (www.resakss.org)

Coverage and indicators—annual update

• 1980-recent year; 54 countries

▶ Regions: 5 geographic, 4 economic, 8 RECs, 4 CAADP groups, other

• Topic area (number of indicators)

▶ Enabling environment (9)

▶ CAADP implementation process (11)

▶ Agricultural spending (4)

▶ Agricultural productivity and growth (7)

▶ Agricultural trade (5)

▶ Poverty, hunger, nutrition (6)

• Data sources

▶ FAO, World Bank, SPEED, national

Analysis• Trends—compare

for selected countries or regions

• Bar graphs—compare all indicators for selected country and year

• Download charts and data

Progress: CAADP 10% Agriculture Expenditure Target

• Additional indicators implied by Malabo

Declaration

• More deeper analyses to support CAADP review

Efficiency and effectiveness of different types of

policies and public spending

Contribution of agriculture to overall outcomes

(growth, poverty, hunger, nutrition)

• More user-friendly updated website

New directions: data, analysis, tools

ASTI indicators (are/will be online)

• Institutional arrangements• R&D spending by cost category• Funding sources• R&D staff by degree, gender, and age• R&D focus by commodity• Output indicators• Student population

Data collection methods

• Focus on low- and middle-income countries• Institutional survey rounds (primary data)• Large network of national, regional, and

international partners

ASTI indicators, data collection methods, and outputs

Interactive country pages allow users to access detailed

investment and human resource trends in agricultural

research, and download factsheets and other information.

Country benchmarking tool enables cross-country

comparisons and rankings of key ASTI indicators.

Data download and graphing tool allows users to explore

in-depth datasets—filter data by country and indicator.

Interactive directory listing of all agricultural R&D agencies

and their institutional and demographic details.

Tools and data can be embedded (tailor-made) on websites

of national and regional partners.

ASTI’s online tools (www.asti.cgiar.org)

Update and expand current datasets on agricultural R&D

investments and capacities through two consecutive survey

rounds in 2015 and 2017

Include collection of output indicators and more granular

data on R&D capacity and investments

Conduct additional policy analysis of structure, composition

and R&D focus of research systems, investments, and

capacities

Further enhance dissemination and advocacy activities to

ensure uptake of key ASTI messages at all levels to

maximize impact and sustainability

ASTI activities in Africa, 2015–2018

Other Agriculture Spending Data Initiatives

Mogues et al. 2016

Compares 13 cross-country data initiatives

that include PAE

Compares methods,

scope, etc. and provides

statistics on PAE

Gaps and Implications

We now know much more about total government expenditure on agriculture relative to other sectors; despite some discrepancies

Recall: how should the total be allocated across different:

subsectors (crops, livestock, etc.), commodities (food vs export crops, etc.), economic uses (salaries, capital, etc.), functions (R&D, irrigation, etc.), space (regions, districts), target groups (gender, farm size), etc.?

Still substantial knowledge gaps in such quality of spending

Except: couple of sub-sectors, total (government plus other) R&D, some subsidies, in few countries, over short series, etc.

Need to step up effort to measure more quality, else difficult to make comprehensive recommendations about how to prioritize spending

Function (COFOG)

701. Gen. Pub. Services

702. Defense

703. Pub. Order & Safety

704. Economic Affairs

705. Environ Protection

706. Housing &

Community Amenities

707. Health

708. Rec., Culture, & Rel.

709. Education

710. Social Protection

Economic Use

21. Compensation of

employees

22. Use of goods and

services

23. Consumption of

fixed capital

24. Interest

25. Subsidies

26. Grants

27. Social benefits

28. Other

Agriculturalsub-Sector

Crops

Livestock

Forestry

Fishery

Agriculturalsub-Function

Extension

Research

Irrigation

Land management

Market infrastructure

Farm support

Policy, planning, M&E

Regulation, licensing

Statistics

…

Level

Central

State/Region

Local/District

…

Policy Objective

Food security

Productivity/Growth

…

Target

Demography

Geography

…

Planning/Execution

Budget

Expenditure

Source of Financing

Domestic (loan, tax)

External (loan, grant)

Different levels of disaggregationIdeal Disaggregated Time-Series Data

E.g.: Returns to Spending in India (1)

Return in agricultural GDP (RPS per RPS spending)

1960s–1970s 1980s 1990s

Return R1 R2 Return R1 R2 Return R1 R2

Agricultural sector

Research & dev’t 8.65 2 5 7.93 1 2 9.50 1 1

Irrigation investment 8.00 3 6 4.71 2 4 4.37 2 4

Irrigation subsidies 5.22 4 7 2.25 4 6 2.47 4 6

Fertilizer subsidies 1.79 5 8 1.94 5 8 0.85 5 8

Credit subsidies 18.77 1 2 3.00 3 5 4.26 3 5

Rural sector

Roads 19.99 1 1 8.89 1 1 7.66 1 2

Education 14.66 2 3 7.58 2 3 5.46 2 3

Power subsidies 12.06 3 4 2.25 3 6 1.19 3 7

Source: Based on Fan, Gulati, and Thorat (2008).

RPS = Retention Pricing Scheme. R1 = rank of return within sector, where 1 is the highest rank. R2 = rank of return across sectors, where 1 is the highest rank.

E.g.: Returns to Spending in India (2)

Source: Based on Fan, Gulati, and Thorat (2008).

RPS = Retention Pricing Scheme. R1 = rank of return within sector, where 1 is the highest rank. R2 = rank of return across sectors, where 1 is the highest rank.

Number of poor reduced per million RPS spending

1960s–1970s 1980s 1990s

Return R1 R2 Return R1 R2 Return R1 R2

Agricultural sector

Research & dev’t 642.69 2 5 409.00 1 3 436.12 1 2

Irrigation investment 630.37 3 6 267.01 2 4 193.21 3 5

Irrigation subsidies 393.70 4 7 116.05 4 7 113.47 4 6

Fertilizer subsidies 90.07 5 8 109.99 5 8 37.41 5 8

Credit subsidies 1448.51 1 3 154.59 3 5 195.66 2 4

Rural sector

Roads 4124.15 1 1 1311.64 1 1 881.49 1 1

Education 1955.56 2 2 651.40 2 2 335.86 2 3

Power subsidies 998.42 3 4 125.50 3 6 59.15 3 7