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What are the main business and social trends that will have an impact on ICT in 2 to 5 years? How can we take them into account in our strategies and policies?
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15.09.08 - Page 1
Département des constructions et des technologies de l'informationCentre des technologies de l'information
Giorgio Pauletto
Observatoire technologiqueIncubator of change and innovation engine
Centre des technologies de l'informationDCTI, Etat de Genève
15.09.08 - Page 2
Département des constructions et des technologies de l'informationCentre des technologies de l'information
ForesightPartnerships
BusinessInformationTechnology
E-Society Vison
OT
Observatoire technologique
http://ot.ge.ch/ot
15.09.08 - Page 3
Département des constructions et des technologies de l'informationCentre des technologies de l'information
Activities
• Strategic Foresight• How do society and technology influence each other?• Provide advice to the State of Geneva and CIO on
strategies and technologies• Lead an active work group on
Information Systems Governance• Open conference « Journée de rencontre »
(Nov 21 on Opening Public Data)
Globalization
Governance InnovationBusiness models
Web 2.0
Environment
Aesthetics
Traceability
Security
Open Source
Transparency
Personalization
Long tail
Services
Sustainability
Virtualization
Singularity
● What are the main trends that will have an impact on ICT in 2 to 5 years?
● How can we take them into account in our strategies and policies?
● How can we translate them into operational actions?
?
Cycles
Time
TechnologyEconomySociety
Digital Business Macro Trends
Globalized Microbusiness
n
Mobiles
SocialSoftware
n
n
Web Users
www
n
Gb
Broadband
IT AcceleratorsGlobal online
consumersConnected
microfinanceCollaborative
and remote working
Production Cost
Innovation
Deepening Mass
Consumption
Western Consumer Saturation
Emerging Market
Development
Process Mgmt
%
$Sensors
i
Metadata
q
p
Processors
p
Graphics
Flattening World,Reduces "Easy"
Margin Opportunities
ManagementScience
Seeks NewOptimization
Methods
Business AppliesTechnologyAdvances
GlobalCompetition
Increases Scale,Standardization
IT AcceleratorsSimulation Dynamic
businessmethods
Mathematicalmanagementscience(derivatives)
Services science
New Management Science
Issue 16.08 June 2008
Technological Environmentalism
Process Mgmt
%
$Sensors
n
WirelessNetworks
i
Metadata
q
Web users
nwww
Requiring NewPolicies and
Controls
Exploiting New andCheaper
Technologies
TechnologicalSociety
PollutesEarth and
Atmosphere
IT AcceleratorsCarbon credits
and e-trading Localized
micro-generationPollution
sensorsLife cycle
traceability
Global IT strategy for CO2 reductions, June 2008, WWF
Collective Intelligence
MassParticipation
Creates Unintended
Consequences
EmpowermentDisrupts: NewBreakthroughs
Arise
New TechnologyCreates New
Potential
But "NetworkEffects" Are Needed to Realize It
SocialSoftware
n
i
Metadata
q
Web Users
nwww
SOA
%
:
$
UtilityInfrastructure IT Accelerators
TaggingWeb 2.0"Open"
developmentPrediction
marketsWikisSocial
networking BlogsHigh
performanceworkplace
Design Innovation
Technology Attracts MoreCreative Users
New Levelsof AestheticAchievement
"Aesthetic Need"MarketGrows
Design Applied to
Technology
IT AcceleratorsCommoditizationNew "materials"Power design
toolsDesign discourseEmergence of
service and experience design
n
Mobiles
SocialSoftware
n
q
Displaytechnology
p
Graphics
Memory
$
Proactive Transparency
Consumers,Investors,
EmployeesDemand
Access toCompete
IT IndustryCreates
Better Tools;Regulators
RequireMore Disclosure
"IT PenetratesDeeper IntoEveryday
Business andPersonal Life"
Power EliteStore, Shareand Network
Information inNew Ways
IT AcceleratorsConsumerizationDigital native
generationFree agent
workforceAttention
economyGlobalized
capital
n
Mobiles
SocialSoftware
n
$Storage
Channels
n
Memory
$
Digital Business Macro Trends
• Globalized Microbusiness
• New Management Science
• Technological Environmentalism
• Collective Intelligence
• Design Innovation
• Proactive Transparency
The future is already here;it's just not very evenly distributed.
William Gibson“ ”
5 Disruptive IT Trends in 2008
Software as a Software as a ServiceService
CloudCloudComputingComputingOpen SourceOpen Source
Web 2.0Web 2.0 Consum-Consum-erizationerization
5 Disruptive IT Trends in 2008
Software as a Software as a ServiceService
CloudCloudComputingComputingOpen SourceOpen Source
Web 2.0Web 2.0 Consum-Consum-erizationerization
Software using an open source license, built on open standards, and supported by
an active community. Cheap and easy to
implement, it allows for a quick uptake at a high
professional level.
Ex: Linux, OpenOffice.org, Firefox, Apache, ...
5 Disruptive IT Trends in 2008
Software as a Software as a ServiceService
CloudCloudComputingComputingOpen SourceOpen Source
Web 2.0Web 2.0 Consum-Consum-erizationerization
Hosted application that offers services either directly on the web or
through APIs (often via Webservices or REST
architectures). Eliminates the need to install and run the app locally simplifying
software maintenance, operation, and support.
Ex: Gmail, Hotmail, Google Docs, OpenId,
Salesforce, ...
5 Disruptive IT Trends in 2008
World scale size hardware and software architectures
to host services on the web. This allows services to become more scalable,
flexible, and quickly deployed.
Ex: Amazon Elastic Computing Cloud EC2 et
Simple Storage Service S3,Google App Engine, ...
Software as a Software as a ServiceService
CloudCloudComputingComputingOpen SourceOpen Source
Web 2.0Web 2.0 Consum-Consum-erizationerization
5 Disruptive IT Trends in 2008
Software as a Software as a ServiceService
CloudCloudComputingComputingOpen SourceOpen Source
Web 2.0Web 2.0 Consum-Consum-erizationerization
Users are increasingly digital natives that bring their own technology and habits into
organizations. Resistance is futile: it's usually better to adapt than to ignore them.
Ex: Web (port 80), Chat, USB keys, external email
Skype, iPhone, ...
5 Disruptive IT Trends in 2008
Software as a Software as a ServiceService
CloudCloudComputingComputingOpen SourceOpen Source
Web 2.0Web 2.0 Consum-Consum-erizationerization
The web is a new programmable platform,
putting data and users at its core, enabling network
effects, mashing-up services, in a perpetual beta version, and relying on lightweight
business models.
Ex: LinkedIn, MySpace, Flickr, YouTube,
Wikipedia, ...
5 Disruptive IT Trends in 2008
One more thing...
LoLow w costcostLow energyLow energy
Cheap(er) devices are appearing that will take over
the usual PC / laptop paradigm. Wireless
communication is changing the way people work, live,
love, and relate to each other through online applications.
Ex: OLPC, Eee-PC, Advanced cell phones, ...
Software as a Software as a ServiceService
CloudCloudComputingComputingOpen SourceOpen Source
Web 2.0Web 2.0 Consum-Consum-erizationerization
Disruptive IT Trends in 2008
LoLow w costcostLow energyLow energy+
Sources● Examples and reports taken from the web, conferences, and personal
communications● Gartner Group● Wired● Wikipedia