Population growth: where will pressure be most profound?

School Planning, Design and Construction Conference

25 October 2016

Pete Goss, School Education Program Director

peter.goss@grattan.edu.au @peter_goss

2

Who we are

Grattan Institute is an independent think tank dedicated to developing high

quality public policy for Australia’s future.

• Independent: We take the perspective of the Australian public interest

rather than any interest group

• Rigorous: We obtain the best available evidence from our own data

analysis and from published work

• Practical: We are practical in articulating what governments should do to

improve the lives of all Australians

3

Contents

National overview

State deep dive: Victoria

Other states

So what?

4

Contents

National overview

State deep dive: Victoria

Other states

So what?

5

School age populations are growing across

Australia

Source: The Conversation, January 22 2016, based on Grattan analysis of planning department data (NSW, Vic, Qld, WA) and ABS (other states)

https://theconversation.com/should-you-worry-about-a-schools-shortage-it-really-depends-on-where-you-live-53296

6

Up to 800 new schools are needed by 2026

0

200

400

600

800

NSW Vic Qld WA SA Tas ACT NT

#

Estimated number of new schools needed by 2026, by jurisdiction

Source: Grattan analysis of planning department data (NSW, Vic, Qld, WA) and ABS (other states)

7

Rates of growth are very uneven across states

14.4

19.220.4

16.8

11.7

2.8

23.3

16.8

0

5

10

15

20

25

NSW Vic Qld WA SA Tas ACT NT

%

Projected increase in school age population, 2016 - 2026, by jurisdiction

Source: Grattan analysis of planning department data (NSW, Vic, Qld, WA) and ABS population projections (other states)

8

But the real story is local variability

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

50

10

0

15

0

20

0

250

30

0

35

0

40

0%

LGA Rank

Projected growth in school age students 2016 – 2026, ranked by LGA

(NSW, Victoria, Queensland, Western Australia)

Source: Grattan analysis of planning department data

9

Contents

National overview

State deep dive: Victoria

Other states

So what?

10

Victoria: Growth is a patchwork quilt . . .

Source: The Age, 17 January 2016, based on Grattan analysis of Victoria in Future 2015

http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/schools-shortage-crisis-hits-victoria-20160113-gm4wzq

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. . . even within (greater) Melbourne

Source: The Age, 17 January 2016, based on Grattan analysis of Victoria in Future 2015

http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/schools-shortage-crisis-hits-victoria-20160113-gm4wzq

12

Local government areas face varied challenges

At least five different types of Local Government Areas in Victoria,

each with varied challenges from demographic changes:

• Inner city

• Outer growth corridors

• Middle ring suburbs

• Regional cities

• Other regional areas

13

(1) Inner city

Location Growth rates Key issues

Inner city High to very high • Land is scarce, expensive

• Existing school blocks sub-scale

• Living patterns are changing

Outer growth

corridors

High to very high • Sheer numbers

• Land is cheap, location is key

• Beating heart of community

Middle ring

suburbs

Variable, localised • Restrictive planning, NIMBY-ism

• Strong schools affect real estate

Regional

cities

Depends on access

to Melbourne

• Movement off the land into town

• But every city has its own story

Other regional

areas

Low growth thru to

strongly negative

(except sea change)

• How to thrive, not just survive,

with shrinking enrolments

• School closures

14

Inner city: high growth, expensive land

Melbourne: 63%

Port Phillip: 39%Stonnington: 30%

Maribyrnong: 56%

Yarra: 52%

Source: The Age, 17 January 2016, based on Grattan analysis of Victoria in Future 2015

http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/schools-shortage-crisis-hits-victoria-20160113-gm4wzq

15

Fisherman’s Bend: 80,000 people, no schools

16

(2) Outer growth corridors

Location Growth rates Key issues

Inner city High to very high • Land is scarce, expensive

• Existing school blocks sub-scale

• Living patterns are changing

Outer growth

corridors

High to very high • Sheer numbers

• Land is cheap, location is key

• Beating heart of community

Middle ring

suburbs

Variable, localised • Restrictive planning, NIMBY-ism

• Strong schools affect real estate

Regional

cities

Depends on access

to Melbourne

• Movement off the land into town

• But every city has its own story

Other regional

areas

Low growth thru to

strongly negative

(except sea change)

• How to thrive, not just survive,

with shrinking enrolments

• School closures

17

The first challenge in Melbourne’s outer growth

corridors is the sheer scale of growth

- 10,000 20,000 30,000

Stonnington

Port Phillip

Darebin

Ballarat

Yarra

Mitchell

Greater Geelong

Greater Dandenong

Maribyrnong

Moreland

Melbourne

Cardinia

Hume

Casey

Melton

Whittlesea

Wyndham

New students

Outer growthcorridor

Inner metro

Source: Grattan analysis of Victoria in Future 2015

Local government area by projected student population growth, 2016-2026

A new prep class born

every week; 100 extra

classrooms needed

every year for a decade

18

Six LGA’s account for 54% of total growth

Melton:

9% of extra students

58% growth in 10y

Wyndham:

15% of extra students

67% growth in 10y

Hume:

6% of extra students

33% growth in 10y

Whittlesea:

10% of extra students

57% growth in 10y

Cardinia:

6% of extra students

58% growth in 10y

Casey:

8% of extra students

25% growth in 10y

19

Alamanda K-9 College, Point Cook (Wyndham)

• Opened in 2013 with ~400 students; ~1,675 in 2016; ~2,000 next year

• 310 Prep students in 2016 (~15 classes!)

• 60 portable classrooms

• Four timetables, with staggered lunch breaks and recess

• No bells (too disruptive)

Source: MySchool, http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/record-one-million-students-to-squeeze-into-victorian-schools-20161010-gryxtx.html

20

(3) Middle ring suburbs

Location Growth rates Key issues

Inner city High to very high • Land is scarce, expensive

• Existing school blocks sub-scale

• Living patterns are changing

Outer growth

corridors

High to very high • Sheer numbers

• Land is cheap, location is key

• Beating heart of community

Middle ring

suburbs

Variable, localised • Restrictive planning, NIMBY-ism

• Strong schools affect real estate

Regional

cities

Depends on access

to Melbourne

• Movement off the land into town

• But every city has its own story

Other regional

areas

Low growth thru to

strongly negative

(except sea change)

• How to thrive, not just survive,

with shrinking enrolments

• School closures

21

Middle ring suburbs: highly localised growth

Darebin: 20%

Bayside: -7%

Moreland: 28%

Whitehorse: 1%

Boroondara: -6%

Source: The Age, 17 January 2016, based on Grattan analysis of Victoria in Future 2015

http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/schools-shortage-crisis-hits-victoria-20160113-gm4wzq

22

(4) Regional cities

Location Growth rates Key issues

Inner city High to very high • Land is scarce, expensive

• Existing school blocks sub-scale

• Living patterns are changing

Outer growth

corridors

High to very high • Sheer numbers

• Land is cheap, location is key

• Beating heart of community

Middle ring

suburbs

Variable, localised • Restrictive planning, NIMBY-ism

• Strong schools affect real estate

Regional

cities

Depends on access

to Melbourne

• Movement off the land into town

• But every city has its own story

Other regional

areas

Low growth thru to

strongly negative

• How to thrive, not just survive

• School closures

23

(5) Other regional areas

Location Growth rates Key issues

Inner city High to very high • Land is scarce, expensive

• Existing school blocks sub-scale

• Living patterns are changing

Outer growth

corridors

High to very high • Sheer numbers

• Land is cheap, location is key

• Beating heart of community

Middle ring

suburbs

Variable, localised • Restrictive planning, NIMBY-ism

• Strong schools affect real estate

Regional

cities

Depends on access

to Melbourne

• Movement off the land into town

• But every city has its own story

Other regional

areas

Low growth thru to

strongly negative

(except sea change)

• How to thrive, not just survive,

with shrinking enrolments

• School closures

24

Many regional areas are shrinking as part of a

move off the land to regional towns

Buloke: -31%

Yarriambiack: -22%

BUT sea change:

Bass Coast: 33%

Surf Coast: 20%

Towong: -18%

(But Wodonga +19%)

Towong: -18%

(But Ballarat +23%)

Loddon: -17%

(But Bendigo +17%)

25

Very diverse challenges: summary

Location Growth rates Key issues

Inner city High to very high • Land is scarce, expensive

• Existing school blocks sub-scale

• Living patterns are changing

Outer growth

corridors

High to very high • Sheer numbers

• Land is cheap, location is key

• Beating heart of community

Middle ring

suburbs

Variable, localised • Restrictive planning, NIMBY-ism

• Strong schools affect real estate

Regional

cities

Depends on access

to Melbourne

• Movement off the land into town

• But every city has its own story

Other regional

areas

Low growth thru to

strongly negative

(except sea change)

• How to thrive, not just survive,

with shrinking enrolments

• School closures

26

Community response:

Our children, our schools

The alliance is currently comprised of the following groups:

Beaumaris School Community Group (BSCG)

A new school for Bannockburn District

High School for Coburg (HSC)

Doreen and Mernda Secondary School Alliance

Friends of Elwood College

Friends of Kyneton Education (FoKE)

Nunawading Primary School Site Preservation Group Inc

Oakleigh Ward Local Secondary School (OWLSS)

High School for Preston

Point Cook Action Group

Public Education Group (PGR)

Reopen Our Schools (Banyule City)

Richmond High School Choices (RHSC)

Secondary Education for Seddon, Kingsville & Yarraville (SKY High)

Restore Strathmore Heights’ School Zones

TwoSchoolsNow (Port Phillip and Southbank)

Docklands Community Forum

Fishermans Bend Network

Northern Mallee School Council Presidents Group

Keysborough South Action Group

Save Former Calder Rise Primary School

Ballert Mooroop Working Group (Glenroy)

Williams Landing Community & Residents

North Melbourne Primary School Parents and Carers

Your Cheltenham School

City Schools 4 City Kids – Melbourne

School for Prahran

27

Official response 1: denial and data control

Source: The Age, 5 December 2013, http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/spending-on-state-school-buildings-lowest-in-a-decade-20131205-2ytds.html

“The $200 million budget in 2012 was the lowest since

2003, despite continuous, 15-year growth in

Melbourne's public school attendance.”

“About 5100

portables have

been crammed on

to school ovals

and open spaces

to accommodate

extra numbers.”

28

Official response 2: portables, vertical schools

Source: Victorian School Building Authority (for South Melbourne Ferrars Street image)

29

Official response 3:

Victorian School Building Authority (April 2016)

30

Why has this been such a shock?

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051

Students(000s)

Victoria’s school age population (ages 5-17), 1971 -- 2051

Notes: Population projection Series B used to estimate future school age population

Source: ABS

31

Contents

National overview

State deep dive: Victoria

Other states

So what?

32

Growth rates vary greatly among LGA’s in NSW

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130

%

LGA rank

Average = 14.4%

Projected growth in school age students 2016 – 2026, ranked by LGA

Source: Grattan analysis of NSW Department of Planning and Environment Population Projections (data accessed Dec 2015)

33

The top ten LGA’s by enrolment growth are all

in Greater Western Sydney

- 10,000 20,000

Ryde

Ku-ring-gai

Canterbury

Randwick

Sutherland Shire

Sydney

Fairfield

Auburn

Bankstown

Penrith

Campbelltown

Parramatta

Camden

The Hills Shire

Liverpool

Blacktown

New students

Greater Western Sydney

Inner metro

Other metro

Local government area* by projected student population growth, 2016-2026

Note: Data uses 2015 classification of Local Government Areas

Source: Grattan analysis of NSW Department of Planning and Environment Population Projections (data accessed Dec 2015)

34

Sydney’s North Shore is also facing challenges

“… schools planning for the

North Shore appeared to use

the assumption that only 4% of

local unit-dwelling households

had children, when Australian

Bureau of Statistics figures

showed the number was 29%.”

Schoolyard crush, The Monthly

Source: https://www.themonthly.com.au/issue/2015/february/1422709200/ceridwen-dovey/schoolyard-crush

“…no provision for necessary

education infrastructure. This

strategy called for 44,000 new

residential dwellings on the

lower North Shore and in the

nearby Ryde area alone…”

35

Queensland growth is dominated by the south-

east corner, followed by four regional cities

Gold CoastIpswich Logan Brisbane Moreton

Bay

SC

Townsville

Cairns

Gladstone

Mackay

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

LGA growth rate by projected student population growth, 2016-2026

Source: Grattan analysis of population projections from Queensland Government Statistician’s Office, 2015

120,000 new students, 71% of total 26,000 new students, 15% of total

Greenfield suburbs

east of Ipswich e.g.

Springfield Lakes

36

Growth in WA is still driven by outer suburbs

and coastal growth south of Perth

CITY OF SWAN

CITY OF WANNEROO

SHIRE OF MUNDARING

CITY OF ARMADALE

SHIRE OF KALAMUNDA

CITY OF ROCKINGHAM

CITY OF COCKBURN

CITY OF GOSNELLS

TOWN OF KWINANA

CITY OF STIRLING

CITY OFJOONDALUP

CITY OFMELVILLE

CITY OFCANNING

CITY OFBELMONT

CITY OFBAYS-WATER

CITY OFCANNING

TOWN OF CAMBRIDGE

CITY OFFREMANTLE

CITY OFSOUTHPERTH

Perth

Kwinana

Yanchep

Armadale

Fremantle

Mundaring

Rockingham

Bullsbrook

PERTH

Western Australia

0 10 205

kmMAP 1:

PERTH METRO REGIONKEY FEATURES

Datum and Projection Information

Vertical Datum: Australian Height

Datum (AHD)

Horizontal Datum: Geocentric Datum of

Australia 94

Projection: MGA 94 Zone 50

Spheroid: Australian National Spheroid

Project Information

Client: Regional Development and Lands

Map Author: Aidan Belouardi

Filepath: J:\gisprojects\Project\D_Series\

D1101\0038_Pilbara_Director\0007 DLGRD Request - Alex Ballie\Local_

Government_Area_Maps\mxd\Filename: Map01-Perth_Metro-

Legend-A4.mxdCompletion Date: 16/02/2010

LGA Boundaries

Australian Coastline

Towns

Population > 5000

500 < Population < 5000

Population < 500

Regions

Gascoyne

Goldfields-Esperance

Great Southern

Kimberley

Midwest

Peel

Perth

Pilbara

South West

Wheatbelt

The purpose of this map is to display the Local Government Area boundaries for the Perth Metropolitan Region.

6

7

89

10

1112

35

1. Town of Bassendean

2. Town of Victoria Park3. City of Perth

4. Town of Vincent

5. City of Subiaco

6. City of Nedlands

7. Town of Claremont

8. Town of Cottesloe

9. Shire of Peppermint Grove

10. Town of Mosman Park

11. City of Fremantle

12. Town of East Fremantle

4

2

1

This map is a product of the Department of Water(Spatial Services), and was printed on 10/03/2010.

This map was produced with the intent that it be used for display purposes, at the scale of 1:600,000

when printing at A4.

While the Department of Water has made allreasonable efforts to ensure the accuracy of this data,

the department accepts no responsibility for anyinaccuracies and persons relying on this data do so

at their own risk.

DATA DICTIONARY

DATASET SOURCE DATE

LGA Boundaries Landgate March 2009

Towns Landgate December 2006

Wanneroo

+11,900

(33%)

Perth

+900

(65%)Cockburn

+3,800

(21%)

Kwinana

+2,500

(36%) Armadale

+3,900

(29%)Rockingham

+6,900

(30%)

Swan

+6,900

(28%)

Joondalup

+3,000

(10%)

Gosnells

+3,000

(14%)

Mandurah +4,700 29%

Plus growth stretching 200km along

the coast south of Perth

37

Contents

National overview

State deep dive: Victoria

Other states

So what?

38

Does over-crowding matter?

One expert’s view

Problems created by over-crowded classrooms:

• Not enough of the teacher to go around

• Over-crowding increases classroom discipline issues

• Struggling students fall further behind

• Standardized test scores suffer

• Overall noise level is increased

• Teacher stress is increased often leading to teacher burn-out

• Less access to equipment and technology

• Lack of personal connections

Source: http://teaching.about.com/od/Information-For-Teachers/fl/Teaching-in-an-Overcrowded-Classroom.htm

39

Does over-crowding matter?

Actually seems to be very little robust research

…there is some evidence…that overcrowding can have an adverse

impact on learning.

A study of overcrowded schools in New York City found that students

in such schools scored significantly lower on both mathematics and

reading exams than did similar students…In addition, when asked,

students and teachers in overcrowded schools agreed that

overcrowding negatively affected both classroom activities and

instructional techniques. (Rivera-Batiz and Marti, 1995)

Corcoran et al. (1988) found that overcrowding and heavy teacher

workloads created stressful working conditions for teachers and led to

higher teacher absenteeism.

Source: U.S. Dept. of Education

Source: http://frontiersacademy.org/do-crowded-classrooms-affect-learning/

40

Given the uncertainty, we must use the next

decade to learn what works and what does not

Options to consider:

• Staggered start times

• ‘Double-bunking’

• Online schools (BUT! Evidence from U.S. suggests terrible outcomes)

• Reducing ‘white flight’

• Community facilities in schools

• Vertical schools

• Flexible design

• …

We must get more robust evidence about what works best to enhance

learning, because population growth is not going away soon…