Indian School of BusinessGroup F13Kyungmin ParkRahul GuptaShikhar AngraSriram GovindrajanYasharth Mishra

• Key Terms– TFR, ASFR, CEB, CBR, etc.

• Statistics as per NFHS 3.

• Fertility trends in India from 1991-92 to 2005-06.

• Variations in fertility parameters across states andurban-rural differentials.

• Factors affecting fertility rates.

• World view - association between population andeconomic growth, poverty, environment, humandevelopment.

• divide the number of births to women in that age group during the period 1-36 months preceding the survey by the number of woman years lived by women in that age group during the same three-year time period.

Age Specific Fertility Rates (ASFR)

• Average number of children that would be born to a woman over her lifetime if she were to experience the exact current age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) through her lifetime, and she were to survive from birth through the end of her reproductive life.

Total Fertility Rate (TFR)

• The replacement rate is the number of children each woman needs to have tomaintain current population levels or what is known as zero populationgrowth.

Replacement Level Fertility Rate

• the annual number of births per 1,000 populationCrude Birth Rate (CBR)

• the number of children a woman has ever borneChild Ever Born (CEB)

• percentage of currently married women age 15-49 years who are currently using a contraceptive method or whose husbands are using a contraceptive method

Contraceptive Prevalence Rate (CPR)

Objective of National Population Policy, 2000:

• “to address the unmet needs for contraception, health care infrastructure,and health personnel, and to provide integrated service delivery for basicreproductive and child health care. The medium-term objective is to bringthe TFR to replacement levels by 2010”

• Achieve population stabilization by 2045 i.e. population to stabilize into astationary population, with no year-to-year changes in age-specific rates or intotal population.

Age Urban Rural Total

15-19 0.057 0.105 0.09

20-24 0.166 0.231 0.209

25-39 0.184 0.246 0.226

40-49 0.005 0.013 0.01

Urban Rural Total

TFR 15-49 2.06 2.98 2.68

Urban Rural Total

CBR 18.8 25 23.1

Mean No. of CEBMean No. of

living children

Age -- --

15-19 0.15 0.14

20-24 1.15 1.06

25-39 2.95 2.65

40-49 4 3.41

Source: http://www.prb.org/Publications/Datasheets/2012/world-population-data-sheet/world-map.aspx#/map/births

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

Urban Rural Total Urban Rural Total Urban Rural Total

NFHS3 NFHS2 NFHS1

2.06

2.98

2.68

2.27

3.062.84

2.68

3.64

3.36

TFR

Trends in TFR

NFHS3 – 2003-05, NFHS2 – 1996-98, NFHS1 – 1990-92.

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

15-19 20-24 25-39 40-49

Trends in Total ASFR

NFHS3

NFHS2

NFHS1

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

15-19 20-24 25-39 40-49

ASFR Trends - Urban and Rural

NFHS3-Urban

NFHS3-Rural

NFHS2-Urban

NFHS2-Rural

NFHS1-Urban

NFHS1-Rural

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Urban Rural Total Urban Rural Total Urban Rural Total

NFHS3 NFHS2 NFHS1

18.8

2523.1

20.9

26.224.8 24.1

30.428.7

CB

R

Trends in CBR

NFHS3 – 2003-05, NFHS2 – 1996-98, NFHS1 – 1990-92.

Kerala Tamil NaduIndia

Urban RuralUttar

PradeshBihar

TFR1.93 1.8 2.06 2.98 3.82 4.0

CBR16.4 16.4 18.8 25 29.1 32.4

Median numberof months sincepreceding birth

41.2 31.4 31.1 29.8 29.9

%of women age 15-19 who have had a live birth or who are pregnant with their first child

5.8 7.7 16.0 14.3 25.0

Wanted Fertility RateActual Fertility Rate 1.8/1.9 1.4/1.8 1.9/2.7 2.3/3.8 2.4/4.0

Percentage who wantmore sons than Daughters (Women/Men)

11/11.8 5.7/7.9 22.4/20.0 33.5/27.8 39.2/38.5

Five key proximate determinants

Marriage

Sexual Intercourse

Postpartum Amenorrhea

Postpartum Abstinence

Menopause

Contraceptive Use

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Never married

Currently Married

Married gauna not performed

Widowed

Divorced

Separated

%age Married

0

5

10

15

20

25Median Age at First Marriage

0

5

10

15

20

25Median Age at first sexual intercourse

90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

100

Knowledge of at least one contraceptive method

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

%

Ever use of contraception

CURRENTLY MARRIED WOMEN - TOTAL

UNMARRIED WOMEN WHO EVER HAD SEX -TOTAL

0.00

500.00

1,000.00

1,500.00

2,000.00

2,500.00

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Fem

ale

Ster

iliza

tio

n

Fem

ale

Pill

Fem

ale

IUD

Fem

ale

Inje

ctab

les

Fem

ale

Co

nd

om

/Nir

od

h

Mal

e St

erili

zati

on

Mal

e C

on

do

m/N

iro

dh

Cost of Modern Methods

Percentage free

Percentage who donot know cost

Median cost ($)

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Not having sex/infrequent sex

Menopausal/had hysterectomy

Subfecund/infecund

Fatalistic

Wants as many children as possible

Respondent opposed

Husband opposed

Others opposed

Religious prohibition

Knows no method

Knows no source

Health concerns

Fear of side effects

Lack of access/too far

Costs too much

Inconvenient to use

Interferes with body’s normal processes

Other

Don’t know

Missing

%

Reason for not intending to use contraceptive in future

68.2, 3.9 Bihar

54.9, 3.9 Uttar Pradesh

24.5, 1.5 A & N

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

TFR

Percentage of women between age 20-24 married before the age of 18(by state)

TFR v/s Early marriage4

3.6 Bihar

1.7T.N.

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100

TFR

Literacy rate (in %)

TFR v/s Literacy Rate (2011) 5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80

TFR

Any method of contraceptive use (%)

TFR v/s Use of contraceptives

R² = 0.003

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

0 0.5 1 1.5

Billions

Poverty head count ratio below $1.5

R² = 0.476

0

2

4

6

8

10

0 0.5 1 1.5Billions

CO2 emissions(million tones)

R² = 0.013

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

0 0.5 1 1.5

Billions

HDI

R² = 0.127

0

4

8

12

16

0 0.5 1 1.5

Billions

GDP, PPP (current international

tn $)

• Top 10 populous countries in decreasing order: •China•India•United States•Indonesia•Brazil•Pakistan•Nigeria•Bangladesh•Russian Federation•Japan

•Little or no correlation exists between population with poverty head count ratio, and HDI

•Strong correlations between population with GDP (PPP adjusted) and CO2 emissions

• Population and per capita income are the major contributors of CO2 emissions (but vary across time and region)– research paper by R. Shanthini

•Source: World Bank databases 6

• Here are the statistics are per the SRS Statistical Report 2011 3

– TFR: 2.4, Urban: 1.9, Rural: 2.7

– CBR: 21.8, Urban: 17.6, Rural: 23.3

– Proportion of females getting married before legal age of marriage: 3.7%

– Sex Ratio: 906, Urban: 900, Rural: 907

• NPP, 2000 stated that if its strategies arefollowed then India’s population could becapped at 1.1 billion in 2010.

• In reality India’s population in 2010 was 1.15billion and approximately 1.24 billion today.

• Union Health and Family Welfare Ministry haspushed back the target date for achievingpopulation stabilization to 2070 from 2045.Projected population in 2070 - 170 crore1

• Should government rethink its population controlpolicy?

• At the time when most of the developed world andeven developing world countries such as China andKorea are starting to age should India really try anddrastically control its population growth?

• What is the real problem - population or theunderlying factors?

• Demographic dividend – All hype or is there somesubstance in it?

1. http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/population-stabilisation-target-date-pushed-back-to-2070/article843432.ece

2. All statistics sourced from - http://www.measuredhs.com/pubs/pdf/FRIND3/00FrontMatter00.pdf

3. http://www.censusindia.gov.in/vital_statistics/SRS_Reports.html

4. http://www.unicef.org/india/Child_Marriage_Fact_Sheet_Nov2011_final.pdf

5. http://censusindia.gov.in/2011-Common/srs.html

6. World Bank databases - http://datacatalog.worldbank.org/

• In the 1950s, TFR exceeded six children per woman.

• In 1962, South Korea began its national familyplanning campaign to reduce women's unwantedbirths through a program of information and theprovision of family planning supplies and services.

• The program was seen as essential if the goals ofeconomic growth and modernization were to beachieved. -> The public responded well to the ideaof a “small and prosperous family.”

• By 1970, the TFR had fallen to 4.5

• A 1974 poster (see figure's top image)exhorted, “Sons or daughters, let's havetwo children and raise them well.”

• In 1981, the government, buoyed by itssuccess up to that point, set a target of atwo-child, "replacement" level fertility by1988 with a program of economicincentives.

• There was even some mention of a one-child family: "Even two children per familyare too many for our crowded country"(see bottom image).

• The TFR was down to 1.74 by 1984.