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Assessing Assessing Emerging Emerging
Technology Technology and Futures and Futures Capacity for Capacity for
Your Your OrganizationOrganization
EDUCAUSE2016
Plan for the workshopPlan for the workshop
1.Introductions2.Delphi method3.Environmental scanning4.Trend analysis5.Scenarios6.Implementation in your
organization
Historical sketchHistorical sketch
1.Cold War: RAND and Shell
2.Growth of futures/futurology
3.Business, government
2. Delphi method• Assemble experts • Structured queries• Reiterated assessments
Horizon ReportsHorizon ReportsHigher EducationHigher Education K-12 EducationK-12 Education
MuseumsMuseumsLibrariesLibraries
European Union (K-12) European Union (K-12) Latin America (Higher Ed)Latin America (Higher Ed)
Regional/Sector Technology OutlooksRegional/Sector Technology OutlooksAustralia / New Zealand / BrazilAustralia / New Zealand / Brazil
Ireland / UK / Norway / Singapore / AsiaIreland / UK / Norway / Singapore / AsiaChina / Scandinavia / Int’l Schools China / Scandinavia / Int’l Schools
Training / eLearning / STEM / Community CollegesTraining / eLearning / STEM / Community Colleges
www.nmc.org/horizon-project
55 Editions55 Editions75+ Translations75+ Translations
14 Years of Global Research into Emerging Technology Uptake14 Years of Global Research into Emerging Technology Uptake
The NMC Horizon Project
HORIZON.WIKI.NMC.ORG
POLICYPOLICYLEADERSHIPLEADERSHIP
PRACTICEPRACTICE
LONG-TERM IMPACT
MID-TERM IMPACT
SHORT-TERM IMPACT
> Advancing Cultures of Innovation> Rethinking How Institutions Work
> Redesigning Learning Spaces> Shift to Deeper Learning Approaches
> Growing Focus On Measuring Learning> Increasing Use of Blended Learning Designs [ KEY
TRE
NDS
]
Solvable vs. Difficult/Wicked Challenges
SOLVABLE
DIFFICULT
WICKED
> Blending Formal + Informal Learning> Improving Digital Literacy
> Competing Models of Education> Personalizing Learning
> Balancing Our Connected + Unconnected Lives> Keeping Education Relevant
[ SIG
NIFI
CANT
CHA
LLEN
GES
]
NEAR-TERM: 1 YR OR LESS
MID-TERM: 2-3 YRS
FAR-TERM: 4-5 YRS
> Bring Your Own Device (BYOD)> Learning Analytics + Adaptive Learning
> Augmented + Virtual Reality> Makerspaces
> Affective Computing> Robotics
[ DEV
ELOP
MEN
TS IN
TEC
H ]
On campus• Can you use Horizon and
others?• Can you build your own?
Horizon prompts exercise 1.Which developments in technology are most likely to have the largest impact on education over the next five years?
2.What are the most significant challenges facing education and technology?
3.Which significant trends will have the greatest influence on how education and technology work in the near future?
3. Environmental scanning•Present-oriented,
seeking seeds of future•Multiple, diverse
sources•“So what?” Analysis
STEEP framework
SocialTechnologicalEconomicalEducational Political
Key questions to start on• What are your sources?• How do you share what
you discover?• How does reflection
shape your planning?
EXERCISE
1.Identify 2 stories from past 3 months
2.1 personal, 1 professional
3.Note source
4. Trend analysis
Once you have discerned possible future-suggestive stories, what do you do with them?
4. Trend analysis• What do they signal about a
possible future?• What trends do they indicate?• How do they connect with your
thinking?• How do they intersect?
EXERCISE
Back to environmental scan. Break out trends.
5. Scenarios
https://www.flickr.com/photos/jamais_cascio/3991366442/
AdvantagesAdvantages
1.Narratives compel2.Creativity for everyone3.Role playing4.Can be very low cost
CostsCosts
1. Time consuming2. Can be costly3. May seem too touchy-feely,
too speculative
How to use?How to use?
1. Role playing2. Simpler: how does your life
change?3. Group or individual/small
group creation
Sample scenariosSample scenarios
1. Peak Higher Education
2. Health Care Nation3. Tutor me, Siri4. Renaissance
Peak higher educationPeak higher education
Academia experiences a serious correction
The bubble burstThe bubble burst
http://research.studentclearinghouse.org/
Grad programs checkedGrad programs checked
Perfect stormPerfect storm Demographic decline Accelerated prices + sunk
costs Low public funding Alternatives rising
How does this impact How does this impact campuses?campuses?
Fewer, less crowded campuses
Very international student body
Low-cost programs ($10K BA)
How does this impact How does this impact campuses?campuses?
Increased remedial programs
College generally seen as job training
How does this impact How does this impact learning?learning?
More alternatives:Maker movement expandsMore DIY learning,
unschooling
Vocational tech classes are widespread in K-12
Apprenticeships are accepted in career paths
Colleges have always been transnational
II: II: Health care Health care nationnation
Medical sector grows into leading US industry
45% of GDP
A new economyA new economy
Ageing population
A new economyA new economy Byzantine finances Treatment improvements Greater presence in society Baumol’s disease
How does this impact How does this impact campuses?campuses?
More programs, more people, more tech
Increased feminization of student body
Space sharing w/clinics + hospitals
Some took premed-themed classes in high school
Medical heroes loom as large as sports figures
Many already familiar with eldercare practices
III. Tutor me, SiriIII. Tutor me, Siri Tutoring
software Commodi
ty and enterprise versions
How it happenedHow it happened
Continuous developments in AI, HCI, learning science
Commercial, governmental, academic projects
Open education to draw upon
Higher education landscape:Two Cultures
implementation divideBoom in CS, robotics
departmentsScholarship battles
Higher education landscape:
Further adjunctificationF2f undergrad, grad
enrollments drop Math Emporium model
Expanded study halls in high school
Beloved tutors carried to college, life
Value humans for eccentricity, style
IV. RenaissanceIV. Renaissance
Gaming world
Gaming as part of mainstream Gaming as part of mainstream cultureculture
Median age of gamers shoots past 30
Industry size comparable to music
Impacts on hardware, software, interfaces, other industries
Large and growing diversity of platforms, topics, genres, niches, players
Games serious, public, and political
• Oiligarchy, Molle Industries• Jetset, Persuasive Games• The Great Shakeout, California• DimensionM, Tabula Digita
Classroom and coursesCurriculum contentDelivery mechanismCreating games
Peacemaker, Impact GamesRevolution (via Jason Mittell)
•Joost Raessens and Jeffrey Goldstein, eds, Handbook of Computer Game Studies (MIT, 2005)•Frans Mayra, An Introduction to Game Studies (Sage, 2008)•Pat Harrigan and Noah Wardrip-Fruin, eds. Third Person: Authoring and Exploring Vast Narratives (MIT, 2009)
Game studies as academic Game studies as academic fieldfield
How is gaming used now?How is gaming used now?
Use games to impact society
Some impacts on campusesSome impacts on campuses
Changes in hardware, software
Part of undergraduate life Learning content, both
informal and formal Career paths
Interface changesInterface changes
Gartner: end of the mouse
Touch screen (iOS) Handhelds (Wii) Nothing (Kinect)
Higher education landscape: Accreditation: drives project-
based, studio-style pedagogy Libraries: rare and/or smaller Professional development:
distance, DiY Faculty multimedia production is
the norm› Both sides of the API
War on IP rages Nostalgia waves for
old media Competing
storytelling schools
Most students identified with one+ game characters in K-12
Leading game developers are as well known as movie directors
Most of their work and school is gamified
How does your life change?How does your life change?
1. Peak Higher Education
2. Health Care Nation3. Tutor me, Siri4. Renaissance
EXERCISE 1EXERCISE 1
1. Select one trend2. Build a world around it• Think STEEP• Think campuses• Imagine your students
EXERCISE EXERCISE
1. Pick the most unstable, hard to predict trend.
2. Describe its polar extreme possibilities.
3. Pick another trend.4. Do #2 on it.
EXERCISE
Each trend one axis
6. Back to campus
What is your current futuring capacity?• Individuals• Practices• Local resources
6. Back to campusWhat are your external resources?• Collaborations• Online• Professional organizations
How to develop• Support futures-oriented
people• Try out one of these methods• Hold planning/vision sessions• Share news, fiction
How to develop• Ad hoc or formal group?• “ “ “ “ process?• Partner locally• “ externally
Plan for the workshopPlan for the workshop
1.Introductions2.Delphi method3.Environmental scanning4.Trend analysis5.Scenarios6.Implementation in your
organization
http://bryanalexander.org
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